0 2 B 从这一点来讲，降息肯定是利多黄金的，但缩表、缩减资产负债表，又是利空黄金的，所以接下来黄金具体会怎么走，还得等沃神正式上任之后，看美国的 实际利率究竟会如何表现，这才是关键。这里跟大家简单说一句，不管是降息还是加息，调整的都是名义利率；而缩减资产负债表，会直接影响到美国长期 债券的收益率，咱们可以简单理解为，长期债券收益率，其实就相当于美国的实际利率，这两者的关联度非常高，近期美债收益率的波动也间接影响了黄金 的短期走势。 所以说，从这方面来讲，我们后续要重点关注的，就是长期债券收益率的走向，尤其是沃神上任之后，他的货币政策会有哪些具体变化。当然了，大家也不 用太着急，沃神上任还有两三个月的时间，暂时不需要过分担忧，咱们边走边看、顺势而为就好。 l ( � 9 09 C T III l 首先一方面呢，就是关税的事。在放假期间，美国那边对特朗普的关税作出了判决，认定是不合法的，但这一点也不影响特朗普，他还是会从其他方面进一 步增加其他关税，说白了就是"不管合法不合法，我都要执行"，就是这么一个状态。 这是关税方面的情况，当然了，对于全球贸易来讲，这种做法肯定是不合理的，也不利于全球经济的发展。而从黄 ...

此外，缩表行动还与特朗普降低抵押贷款利率的期望相悖，且在缩表同时维持金融稳定存在较大难度。 市场担忧进一步收紧流动性会推高长期国债收益率与抵押贷款利率，与白宫住房可负担性诉求相冲突。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 特朗普政府提名凯文·沃什在现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔5月任期结束后接任美联储主席。这位曾在 2006年至2011年担任美联储理事的潜在领导人，长期批评美联储将债券与现金持仓用作政策工具的做 法，主张大幅缩减美联储资产负债表规模，认为大规模持仓会扭曲金融市场，偏袒华尔街利益而非普通 民众。 然而，沃什的缩表主张面临多重现实阻力。美国财长贝森特表示，即便在沃什领导下，美联储也不会迅 速采取缩表行动，美联储可能需要长达一年时间来制定资产负债表调整决策，且当前实行的充足准备金 制度需要更大规模的资产负债表支撑。 公开数据显示，美联储在全球金融危机和新冠疫情期间通过量化宽松大幅扩张资产负债表，2022年夏季 规模达到9万亿美元峰值，后经量化紧缩降至2025年11月末的6.6万亿美元，但在2025年12月重启扩表， 启动短期国债购买计划以稳固对利率目标体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has raised concerns in the market due to his reputation as a hawkish figure who may aggressively reduce the Fed's balance sheet, potentially impacting monetary policy and market expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - Warsh's core belief is that the Fed's balance sheet is too large, and aggressive reduction could create room for more significant interest rate cuts, achieving a combination of tightening assets while loosening rates [3][5]. - The Fed recently completed a tightening cycle, reducing its total assets from approximately $8.9 trillion to around $6.5 trillion, a decrease of about $2.2 trillion, with securities held dropping from 33% to 20% of nominal GDP [5][6]. - The Fed has entered a phase of technical expansion, purchasing about $35-40 billion in short-term Treasury securities monthly to maintain bank reserves, indicating that a rapid reduction of the balance sheet is unlikely [5][6]. Group 2: Current Monetary Policy - The Fed's quantitative tightening began in June 2022, with a maximum reduction of $95 billion per month, which was maintained for over two years before slowing down [6][8]. - As of mid-January 2026, the Fed's total assets are approximately $6.58 trillion, with expectations to rise to between $6.9 trillion and $7.1 trillion by the end of 2026 [8]. - Interest rates were reduced significantly in 2024, but the Fed has since adopted a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate plans for further cuts, indicating a stable interest rate environment for at least the first half of 2026 [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the current stance, with a majority of voting members favoring a wait-and-see approach [9][11]. - Warsh's potential strategies may include a gradual reduction of the balance sheet, adjusting the scale and pace of reserve management purchases rather than a direct resumption of large-scale reductions [11][14]. - The Fed's balance sheet has expanded significantly since the 2008 financial crisis, and while there is room for reduction, the pace and path will depend on various factors, including economic data and financial stability [14][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $4,800 and $5,200 per ounce in the short term, while silver prices are projected to range from $65 to $100 per ounce [2][3] - The recent high of London gold reached nearly $5,600 per ounce before a significant pullback, with a recent rebound to $5,000 per ounce and decreasing volatility [2][3] - The newly nominated Federal Reserve Chairman's advocacy for a combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction has reversed previous expectations of continued balance sheet expansion, leading to a sharp correction in gold and overall commodity and stock markets, with gold prices dropping to $4,400 per ounce at one point [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the recent price drop, the U.S. dollar remains weak, and if the balance sheet reduction process does not proceed as scheduled, gold may continue to maintain high levels due to ongoing global political and economic uncertainties [2][3] - Silver has also been affected by expectations of balance sheet reduction, compounded by its stronger speculative nature and severe overbought conditions, resulting in a historically rare pullback [2][3] - Global physical silver inventories remain low, ETF holdings have not decreased, and spot premiums remain high, indicating that despite significant price corrections, the tightness in the silver spot market has not been substantively resolved, necessitating further observation of delivery situations [2][3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Recent adjustments in the US stock market were primarily driven by a sell-off in AI software stocks, with Goldman Sachs predicting that the downward trend may continue, although the peak volatility has passed [4][1] - Foreign institutions are optimistic about gold, with Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan raising their 2026 target prices to $6,000-$6,300 per ounce, while maintaining a cautious stance on silver and copper [5][1] - UBS has revised its GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2026 from 1.1% to 1.3%, mainly due to expansive fiscal policies, particularly defense spending [6][1] Core Insights and Arguments - The stability of the US stock market requires an improvement in earnings prospects, and the recovery of investor sentiment may need several quarters of solid fundamentals to support it [4][1] - AI technology stocks face risks of valuation corrections and exit difficulties, with some listed companies experiencing significant declines. However, Deutsche Bank believes that AI-driven private credit transactions will promote the development of the real economy and reduce risks in the long term [7][1] - Foreign institutions are focusing on major asset classes, including US stocks, commodities, and foreign exchange, with a bullish outlook on precious metals (gold and silver) and copper, while being cautious about silver [8][1] Additional Important Insights - The trend of the Chinese yuan strengthening in the medium term is expected to remain unchanged, driven by improved growth prospects and increased policy tolerance in China. The appreciation of the yuan is characterized by a slow and steady pace, with increased stability in the central parity and a decoupling from the US dollar [9][1] - Foreign institutions view the recent pullback in the A-share market at the end of January as a healthy technical adjustment, optimistic about the transition to a stable liquidity environment in the Chinese stock market, supported by the strengthening yuan and positive regulatory signals [10][1][11]

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has sparked discussions about his hawkish or dovish stance, but ultimately, market dynamics will dictate policy adjustments regardless of individual labels [1][2]. Group 1: Kevin Walsh's Background and Stance - Walsh is known for his hawkish views, prioritizing inflation over unemployment during his tenure as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, and he resigned due to disagreements over post-crisis monetary stimulus policies [1]. - After leaving the Fed, Walsh has criticized the expanding role of the Fed in the economy and markets, showing a tendency to shift his stance based on the political cycle, being more dovish under Republican leadership and hawkish under Democratic leadership [1][2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - If Walsh becomes Chairman, monetary policy is likely to follow traditional paths, adjusting based on economic growth and inflation data, without significant shifts due to individual changes [2]. - The attempt to offset interest rate cuts with balance sheet reduction may weaken the effectiveness of both tools and create confusion in the market, as balance sheet reduction has limited marginal impact in normal market conditions [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Growth and Market Reactions - Trump stated that if Walsh performs well, the U.S. economy could achieve a 15% growth rate, which contrasts with the current projected growth of 2.4% for the year, adding pressure on Walsh [3]. - Investors are advised to remain patient and not rush to adjust positions based on Walsh's perceived hawkish or dovish nature, while closely monitoring long-term inflation expectations to assess the Fed's credibility [3].

Group 1 - The core concept of "balance sheet reduction" (缩表) is to decrease the Federal Reserve's balance sheet by withdrawing excess liquidity from the market to combat inflation [6][7][8] - The assets on the balance sheet primarily consist of U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [4] - The liabilities include the dollars printed and circulated in the market, as well as reserves held by commercial banks at the Federal Reserve [5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve employs two main methods for balance sheet reduction: passive reduction by stopping reinvestment of maturing bonds and active reduction by directly selling assets [7][8] - The goal of balance sheet reduction is to recover excess liquidity created during the pandemic and to raise long-term interest rates, which can suppress total demand by increasing borrowing costs for businesses and individuals [9][10] Group 3 - The impact of balance sheet reduction is felt globally, as it can lead to a decrease in market liquidity, potentially raising borrowing rates and putting pressure on asset prices in the U.S. [11][12] - The Federal Reserve's recent announcement to end the current round of quantitative tightening by December 1, 2025, marks a significant shift in monetary policy [13] Group 4 - The combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction is seen as a "policy paradox," aiming to shift the economy from reliance on external monetary expansion to internal credit creation [15][16] - The proposed reforms aim to redirect capital from financial speculation to real investment, supporting small businesses and technological innovation [18] Group 5 - The anticipated effects of these policies include a healthier, market-driven interest rate system that enhances resource allocation efficiency [21] - The strategy involves a phased approach: first lowering interest rates, then easing financial regulations, and finally implementing gradual balance sheet reduction [25][27] Group 6 - The potential global impact of these policies includes increased capital outflows from emerging markets and pressures on foreign currency debt repayment [29] - The success of the proposed policies hinges on the ability to recover liquidity without triggering economic contraction, relying on advancements in productivity and cost control measures [30]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will experience volatile adjustments, with a focus on the 24,300 - 25,000 yuan/ton range, and the upward momentum is weak [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main - contract is 24,455 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the 03 - 04 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 50 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,382 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 192,983 lots, down 1,044 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 54 lots, down 498 lots - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 70,689 tons, up 5,535 tons; the LME inventory is 106,925 tons, down 675 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,460 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,170 yuan/ton, down 520 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is 5 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 23.73 US dollars/ton, down 2.17 US dollars - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,510 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons - The global zinc mine production is 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons - The social inventory of zinc is 128,000 tons, up 9,500 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, down 60,000 tons - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million square meters - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 26.01%, up 2.43%; the historical volatility of the at - the - money option for 20 days is 38.7% - The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 26.01%, up 2.44%; the historical volatility of the at - the - money option for 60 days is 19.41% [3] 3.7 Industry News - The General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee stated that the key to building a modern socialist country lies in self - reliance and self - improvement in science and technology - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that even if Wash becomes the Fed Chairman, the balance - sheet reduction will not be carried out rapidly, and the decision may require up to a one - year assessment [3]

Gold Sector - Trump's nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to drive a 15% economic growth in the U.S., indicating a shift in monetary policy focus [2] - Central banks in Asia have increased gold purchases for 15 consecutive months, raising total reserves to 74.19 million ounces, reflecting a strategy to mitigate risks in an uncertain global economic environment [2] - Analysts suggest that if interest rates are cut twice this year, gold prices could rise further [2] - Technically, gold is experiencing wide fluctuations, with a critical support level at $4,985; a drop below this could lead to a deeper correction towards $4,845 [2] Oil Sector - The EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia, banning services that support Russian seaborne oil exports, aiming to limit Russia's energy revenue [3] - Russia's oil production in the previous month was 9.28 million barrels per day, a decrease of 46,000 barrels from December, and 300,000 barrels below its OPEC+ quota [3] - Technically, after reaching $66.45, oil prices are in a corrective phase, with potential upward movement towards the $73-$74 range if the upward trend resumes; key support is at $63 [3] Dollar Index - The IMF reported an 8.1% decline in the Bloomberg Dollar Index against a basket of 10 major currencies over the past year, marking the largest drop since 2017 [4] - Concerns about dollar depreciation have increased due to Trump's tariff policies and deteriorating U.S. fiscal policies [4] - Analysts predict that Waller's potential acceleration of balance sheet reduction could raise long-term yields, impacting economic growth and financial stability [4] - Technically, the dollar index has broken below the 96-100.20 range but rebounded from a low of 95.49; resistance is at 98, with support between 96.10-96.30 [4] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is in a bullish trend, having reached a high of 58,569, with strong upward momentum; a pullback was followed by renewed gains, indicating a high probability of further increases [6] Copper Sector - Copper prices have stabilized after a significant drop at the end of last month, with fluctuations around the $5.64 support level; a breakout above $6.05 could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, while a drop below $5.55 may indicate a larger correction [7] Market Overview - IMF President Georgieva stated that short-term exchange rate fluctuations should not be overreacted to [8] - Federal Reserve's Bostic noted growing skepticism regarding confidence in the dollar [8] - The U.S. Maritime Administration has warned vessels to stay clear of Iranian waters [8]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman marks a significant shift in market expectations, moving away from an overly accommodative monetary policy to a more disciplined approach focused on the long-term consequences of financial conditions and the costs of balance sheet expansion [2][3]. Group 1: Warsh's Policy Preferences - Warsh is characterized as a "disciplinarian," emphasizing the importance of the central bank's boundaries and the long-term effects of financial conditions, showing a natural aversion to the normalization of unconventional tools like quantitative easing (QE) [3][5]. - He opposes QE not because he is against easing per se, but because he believes it distorts asset prices and exacerbates wealth inequality. He views the use of QE as a crisis response tool rather than a regular option [5][6]. - Warsh acknowledges the necessity of interest rate cuts but emphasizes that lowering rates does not equate to flooding the market with liquidity. He believes current rates may be 50-100 basis points above neutral rates, which he estimates to be around 3% [5][6]. Group 2: Structural Changes in Monetary Policy - Warsh advocates for a reduction in the Federal Reserve's power boundaries, questioning whether the Fed has taken on too many responsibilities that should not fall under its purview. This suggests a higher threshold for intervention during market turmoil [6][7]. - He criticizes the current "ample reserves" framework of the Fed, proposing a return to pre-crisis methods of controlling the federal funds rate through open market operations rather than maintaining excessive reserves [10][11]. - The market anticipates that Warsh's focus on liquidity could lead to increased volatility in the money market, as interbank liquidity would no longer be unlimited, requiring financial institutions to manage liquidity more actively [11][12]. Group 3: Warsh's Background and Political Context - Warsh's career trajectory—from Wall Street to the White House and then to the Federal Reserve—has shaped his critical perspective on monetary policy and institutional costs associated with unconventional tools [13][16]. - His appointment is seen as a strategic choice by Trump, balancing the need for loyalty and the ability to maintain the Fed's independence while addressing market concerns about inflation and monetary discipline [18][19]. - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 create additional pressure for Warsh to align with the White House's political objectives, particularly in managing interest rates to avoid exacerbating living costs for voters [20][21]. Group 4: Market Implications - The midterm elections in November 2026 will likely serve as a pivotal point for Warsh's policy implementation, with a focus on gradual reforms rather than aggressive tightening measures [27][28]. - The communication strategy of the Fed under Warsh may shift to reduce the frequency of forward guidance and limit public statements from officials, leading to increased market uncertainty and volatility [27][29]. - Overall, the market is expected to experience heightened volatility as Warsh's cautious approach to interest rate cuts and potential balance sheet reductions unfolds, particularly affecting high-valuation and leveraged assets [29][30].