但让人没想到的是，这场掌门争夺战里，最热闹的话题居然是"要不要限制美联储的资产规模"，这跟特朗普一直念叨的低利率诉求，看着就像拧巴到一起的 绳子。 特朗普对低利率的痴迷，懂点美国经济的人都知道。 特朗普要换掉现任美联储主席鲍威尔，这事最近被美国政治新闻网站POLITICO给扒了出来。 他多次公开表达对鲍威尔的不满，就等着明年鲍威尔任期结束，选个跟自己经济理念合拍的新人。 他总说希望抵押贷款利率再低点，这样联邦政府还债务利息能轻松点，普通老百姓买房买车也能少花点钱。 而美联储那庞大的资产负债表，当初就是为了压低长期利率才搞起来的。 现在倒好，一群人喊着要缩减这个"压利率神器"，这操作确实让人摸不着头脑。 美联储的资产规模能冲到6万亿以上，可不是一朝一夕的事。 早年间遇到经济危机，光把短期利率降到零还不够。 为了让购房者、购车者能拿到更便宜的长期贷款，美联储就开始大规模买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券。 这种操作叫量化宽松，说白了就是往市场里砸钱，让借钱的成本降下来，刺激大家投资消费。 2008年金融危机、2020年新冠疫情，每次都是这套打法，资产规模也跟着一路涨。 客观说，量化宽松在危机时刻确实顶用。 就拿新冠疫情 ...

PGIM全球债券主管Robert Tipp指出："尽管有很多关于美国例外主义终结的讨论，但从宏观角度看，美 元已强势维持数年。"他认为今年美元下跌属于"牛市中的修正"，而非"（牛市行情）终结的开端"。 路孚特数据显示，货币市场对12月降息存在分歧，但预计到2026年底累计降息幅度为85个基点。汇丰预 测欧元兑美元将在今年第四季度和明年第一季度升至1.20，随后在2026年剩余时间回落至1.18。 汇丰全球投资研究部策略师在一份报告中指出，美元可能在2026年第一季度或更早时间触底，随后展开 反弹。他们认为美联储可能在12月再次降息，但2026年进一步降息的可能性较低。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美联储10月会议纪要显示，决策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧。许多官员认为，在2025年剩余时间内维 持利率不变"可能是合适之举"。不过，也有若干位官员指出，若经济表现与预期一致，12月再次降 息"很可能是合适的"。 支持降息的一方并未在人数上占绝对优势，对于缩减资产负债表（缩表）的量 化紧缩（QT）行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止。在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担心股市无序下 跌。 美国劳工统计局表示，11月非农就业报告将于 ...

李丹，华尔街见闻 美联储内部的鹰派观点体现在，纪要声明提到，讨论风险管理考量时， 美联储会议纪要显示，上月末的货币政策会议上，决策者对12月是否降息存在严重分歧，认为今年不必 再降息的人数未达到多数，但超过了支持降息的人数，一些中间派要视数据而定；对于缩减资产负债表 （缩表）的量化紧缩（QT）行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止；在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担 心股市无序下跌。 美东时间11月19日周三公布的美联储会议纪要写道： "在讨论货币政策的近期走向时，与会者对（货币政策）委员会（FOMC）12月会议最有可 能采取的政策决定表达了截然不同的看法。大多数（Most）与会者认为，随着委员会逐步 转向更为中性的政策立场，可能适合"进一步降息， "然而，其中一些（several）人暗示，他们未必认为12月会议适合再降息25个基点。一些 （Several）与会者评估认为，如果在接下来的两次会议之间，经济发展符合他们的预期，可 能较为适合12月"进一步降息。"许多（Many）与会者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在今年 剩余时间内，可能适合"维持利率不变。 所有与会者一致认为，货币政策并非一成不变，而是会受到各种最新数据、不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity futures market shows complex trends with different metals, agricultural products, and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended based on these situations [2][7][8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market strengthened on Wednesday, but London gold failed to hold above $4100. Fed's internal divergence on December rate - cut, employment report changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are key factors. Suggest buying at support levels [2]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness is gradually easing. Recommend gradually reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price stabilized yesterday. With improved risk appetite and low rate - cut expectations, and considering the supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum price may maintain oscillatory adjustment after a decline, with improved spot trading but continued reduction of long positions in the main contract [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - demand surplus persists, and the price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [2]. - **Zinc**: Price declined yesterday. Due to supply shortages and demand - side factors, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Price rebounded significantly. With planned production cuts and cost support, long positions can gradually take profits, and short positions should be entered with caution [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Current demand is strong, but long - term demand may decline. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels and be cautious about chasing highs, or consider selling put options [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Price rose. Near - month contracts are strong, but it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs due to factors like slow progress of the storage platform [3]. - **Tin**: Price trended strongly. With improved risk appetite and supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Supply - demand is weak, and there is significant structural differentiation. Hold short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605, and the reference range for RB01 is 3030 - 3080 [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in iron ore 2605, and the reference range for I01 is 760 - 795 [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in coking coal 2605, and the reference range for JM01 is 1110 - 1150 [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans enter an oscillatory phase, and the domestic market is temporarily weak. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. - **Corn**: As the supply in Northeast China is approaching, the futures price is expected to decline oscillatory. Hold short positions [7]. - **Oils and Fats**: Enter an oscillatory and slightly strong phase. Pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Sugar**: International sugar price rebounds, and the domestic market will follow the international trend to decline. Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: Temporarily wait and see, with a range - bound strategy of 13300 - 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory due to decreased supply pressure and weakening demand [7]. - **Pigs**: The supply is still abundant, and the futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [8]. - **Apples**: Wait and see due to low inventory and high - quality apple price increases [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term oscillatory, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: Supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short or conduct spread trading [8]. - **PTA**: Take profits on long positions in PX, and short the processing margin of PTA in the long - term [8][9]. - **Glass**: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to conduct spread trading [9]. - **PP**: Short - term oscillatory and weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand accumulates inventory, and it is recommended to short at high levels for the 01 contract [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally bearish, but with high geopolitical uncertainty, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [9][10]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillatory, with the upside limited by the import window [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Urea**: The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to export news and supply - demand situation [10].

会议纪要显示，上月末的最近一次货币政策会议上，美联储决策者对12月是否降息存在严重分歧，支持降息的一方并未在人数上占绝对优势，对于缩减资产负 债表（缩表）的量化紧缩（QT）行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止。在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担心股市无序下跌。 美东时间11月19日周三公布的美联储会议纪要写道： "在讨论货币政策的近期走向时， 与会者对 （货币政策）委员会（FOMC） 12月会议最有可能采取的政策决定表达了截然不同的看法 。大多数（Most）与会者 认为，随着委员会逐步转向更为中性的政策立场，可能适合"进一步降息， "然而，其中一些（several）人暗示，他们未必认为12月会议适合再降息25个基点。 一些（Several） 与会者评估 认为 ，如果在接下来的两次会议之间，经济 发展符合他们的预期， 可能较为适合12月"进一步降息 。" 许多（Many） 与会者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在今年剩余时间内， 可能适合"维持利率不变 。 所有与会者一致认为，货币政策并非一成不变，而是会受到各种最新数据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡的影响。 媒体指出，在美联储会议纪要中常用的所谓计数术语中，"许多"（Ma ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging hawkish consensus among candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, focusing on the need to limit the central bank's balance sheet, contrasting sharply with President Trump's calls for lower interest rates [1][3][4]. Group 1: Candidates' Stance - Candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, including Kevin Warsh and Michelle Bowman, express concerns over the current balance sheet size exceeding $6 trillion, advocating for a reduction to create space for lowering short-term interest rates without triggering inflation [4][5]. - Warsh has consistently argued for limiting the central bank's size over the past 15 years, suggesting that reducing the balance sheet could allow for lower interest rates without inflationary consequences [4][6]. Group 2: Trump's Contradictory Position - President Trump's public pressure for lower interest rates conflicts with the candidates' focus on balance sheet reduction, highlighting a tension between his desire to stimulate borrowing and the candidates' caution regarding market intervention [5][6]. - Trump's past comments, such as his 2018 tweet urging the Fed to stop reducing its balance sheet, illustrate his concern over liquidity in financing markets, raising questions about his true stance on the Fed's influence [5][6]. Group 3: Policy Logic Behind Balance Sheet Reduction - The candidates' calls for balance sheet reduction stem from Republican concerns about the long-term effects of quantitative easing (QE), which is seen as a tool that disrupts market discipline and exacerbates wealth inequality [6][7][9]. - Critics argue that QE has led to increased government spending and has artificially inflated asset prices, contributing to wealth disparity [8][9]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Future Decisions - The Federal Reserve plans to halt balance sheet reduction by December 1 to prevent liquidity issues in the financial system, a decision supported by key economic advisors [11]. - Future actions by the Fed will depend on the economic landscape, with indications that QE may still be considered if significant risks to employment and price stability arise [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The debate surrounding the future role of the Federal Reserve is intensifying as potential successors to Chairman Powell express concerns about the central bank's large balance sheet, which may contradict President Trump's desire for lower interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Candidates' Perspectives - A consensus among candidates is forming around limiting the Federal Reserve's market interventions, with a general belief that the Fed's balance sheet, exceeding $6 trillion, is too large [2]. - Candidates like Kevin Warsh and Michelle Bowman advocate for a smaller balance sheet, contrasting sharply with Trump's push for lower borrowing costs [1][3]. Group 2: Trump's Contradictory Position - Trump's focus on lowering interest rates to alleviate federal debt and stimulate mortgage lending conflicts with candidates' emphasis on reducing the Fed's market influence [3]. - An example of this contradiction occurred in December 2018 when Trump urged the Fed to halt its $50 billion monthly balance sheet reduction, fearing it would drain liquidity from critical financing markets [3]. Group 3: Policy Logic Behind Balance Sheet Reduction - Candidates' calls for reducing the balance sheet stem from long-standing Republican concerns about quantitative easing (QE) [4]. - Kevin Warsh argues that reducing the balance sheet could create room for lowering short-term rates without triggering inflation, a view not universally accepted [4]. - Michelle Bowman believes a smaller balance sheet would provide more flexibility to respond to future economic shocks [4]. - Treasury Secretary Bessent, involved in the selection process, emphasizes the need to reduce the Fed's distorting market influence, although he advocates for cautious future asset purchases rather than immediate contraction [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Decision-Making - Regardless of the debate's outcome, the short-term market trajectory appears set, with the Fed planning to halt balance sheet reduction by December 1 to prevent liquidity issues [6]. - Stephen Miran, a current Fed governor, supports this decision and indicates that the Fed may still consider using QE when faced with significant risks to employment and price stability [6]. - The next Fed chair, appointed after Powell's term ends in May, may have to utilize all available policy tools in the event of an economic downturn, adding uncertainty to the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential bond-buying is aimed at technical management of bank reserves rather than a broad monetary easing strategy [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its balance sheet, leading to tightening market liquidity, particularly since October, prompting institutions to frequently use repurchase agreements [3]. - The Federal Reserve's asset size has decreased by $2.2 trillion since June 2022, reducing its GDP ratio from 35% to 21%, making it reasonable to halt the balance sheet reduction [5]. - The Federal Reserve's goal is to maintain smooth market operations by intervening before reserves reach critical levels, thereby reducing the likelihood of liquidity crises [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The bond-buying may not immediately lead to a rebound in yields but could prevent further declines, reflecting a cautious external environment [5]. - There is a risk that market participants may misinterpret the Federal Reserve's bond purchases as a signal of a new easing cycle, which could lead to premature capital flow changes [6][8]. - The Federal Reserve aims to avoid miscommunication similar to the European Central Bank's experience, where reinvestment actions were misinterpreted as easing, causing increased volatility [8]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The strategy of providing liquidity in advance reflects the Federal Reserve's emphasis on the resilience of the financial system, which is crucial for preventing economic downturns [16]. - However, prolonged high reserve levels may lead to market dependency on central bank liquidity, potentially undermining risk pricing capabilities [16]. - The Federal Reserve's bond-buying serves as a technical measure that highlights the importance of liquidity management in influencing market sentiment and expectations [16].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases to meet liquidity demands in the banking system [1][2] - The Fed has officially ended its three-year balance sheet reduction process, which began in 2022, reversing the large-scale asset purchases made during the pandemic [2] - The current balance sheet level is stabilized at approximately $6.6 trillion, following signals that the balance sheet reduction has been sufficient [2] Group 1 - Williams indicated that the Fed will begin a gradual asset purchase process when bank reserves drop from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" levels [1] - Analysts expect the Fed may start expanding its holdings through asset purchases in the first quarter of next year [1] - Williams emphasized that purchasing bonds for maintaining adequate liquidity is a natural extension of the adequate reserves strategy and does not indicate a change in monetary policy stance [1] Group 2 - Williams is closely monitoring various market indicators related to the federal funds market, repo market, and payments to assess reserve demand [3] - He noted that determining when the Fed reaches the necessary reserve levels to inject funds into the system is quite challenging [3] - Recent pressures in the repo market and signs of reserves moving from "ample" to "adequate" suggest that reaching adequate reserve levels may not be far off [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has recently made significant moves by cutting interest rates twice within a month, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, and has announced a complete halt to its balance sheet reduction [1][2][3] - The rapid response from the Federal Reserve is attributed to the overwhelming national debt, which has surpassed $38 trillion, leading to substantial interest payments that consume a significant portion of federal revenue [4][6] - The halt in balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts are seen as reactive measures rather than proactive strategies, indicating a challenging economic environment [3][4] Group 2 - The easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to provide more flexibility for China's central bank, potentially allowing for more aggressive monetary easing without the risk of capital flight [8][9] - China's recent optimization of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and the upcoming expansion of the Southbound ETF Connect are aimed at attracting foreign investment, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [9][10] - The inflow of foreign capital into Chinese markets is anticipated to increase, with estimates suggesting up to $200 billion could enter the Chinese stock market over the next 12 months [12][13] Group 3 - Investment strategies should focus on sectors that foreign investors are prioritizing, particularly technology and consumer goods, as these areas are expected to see significant growth [14][15] - The bond market is also highlighted as a safe investment option, with expectations of declining interest rates making government bonds an attractive choice for risk-averse investors [17][18] - The overall market environment is characterized by a shift in global capital flows, with opportunities arising for those who remain patient and strategic in their investment approach [23]