（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，美联储于 2025 年 9 月 16 至 17 日召开的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要显示，美 国上半年实际 GDP 增速放缓，劳动力市场趋软，核心 PCE 通胀维持在年内高位。多数与会官员认为在 当前背景下适度宽松是合适的，并预期年内可能进一步降息。大多数成员强调通胀上行风险依然存在， 但就业下行风险有所增加。委员会将继续推进缩表进程，预计至 2026 年一季度，银行体系准备金余额 将降至约 2.8 万亿美元。 来源：市场资讯 ...

谁在接盘？ 英国、日本成"冤大头"，稳定币成新赌具 当美联储疯狂抛售时，接盘力量主要来自两类角色：一是日本和英国等传统盟友，二是新兴的稳定币发 行方。 日本至今持有1.15万亿美元美债，稳居最大海外债主，英国更是激进增持至8993亿美元，反超中 国成为第二。 美联储，这个全球最大的央行，在3年多时间里悄悄抛售了1.6万亿美元的美债，规模相当于日本和英国 两大债主持仓的总和，远超中国十年累计减持的5000亿。这场抛售潮中，海外投资者反而在增持，而美 联储的"缩表"甚至与降息同步进行。 一边放水，一边抽水，美国经济的矛盾操作背后，是一场关于债 务、通胀和政治压力的危险博弈。 美联储的"双重身份"：既是裁判又是球员 通常情况下，美债市场的卖家主要是各国央行或机构投资者，但这一次，主角变成了美债的发行方监管 者，美联储。 这种操作与其说是主动选择，不如说是被通胀逼入墙角。 2022年美国通胀飙升至9%时，美联储只能通 过抛售美债回收流动性，每月最高减持950亿美元。 更矛盾的是，2024年9月美联储开启降息周期后，缩表却未停止。 一边降息刺激经济，一边抛债收紧银 根，这种看似精神分裂的操作，暴露了美联储的艰难处境：降 ...

【文/羽扇观金工作室 李琪】 随着流动性持续从金融体系中流出，美国银行业在美联储的储备余额已连续第7周下降，跌破3万亿美元 关口。 美联储数据显示，截至9月24日当周，美国银行储备减少约210亿美元，降至2.9997万亿美元，为今年1 月（2.89万亿美元）以来最低水平。 回购市场动荡期间的储备金水平彭博社 并且，随着逆回购工具（RRP）余额接近耗尽，商业银行存放于美联储的准备金也开始下降，而外国银 行持有的现金资产下降速度甚至快于美国本土银行。 与此同时，在美联储持续推行量化紧缩（QT）的背景下，流动性收紧正逐渐影响金融体系的日常运 作。为缓解潜在的市场波动，美联储已于今年早些时候通过减少每月到期债券的不续作规模来放慢缩表 节奏。 尽管美联储主席鲍威尔此前表示银行准备金水平依然充裕，但市场迹象显示，其规模正逼近最低安全水 平，这可能迫使美联储提前结束缩表计划。 此外，流动性收紧推动有效联邦基金利率小幅上升，本周升高1个基点至4.09%。尽管该利率仍处于4% 至4.25%的目标区间内，但其向区间上沿的移动预示融资成本存在上行压力，未来金融环境可能趋于紧 张。 分析人士指出，美联储若提前结束缩表，将使得美国融资 ...

降息的靴子终于落地。九月十八日凌晨，美联储正式宣布降息25个基点，还释放了信号——今年内可能再降一到两次。 时隔一年，美国又拉开了降息周期的序幕，这意味着超过千亿美元的资本要往全球市场流了。这事儿听着像个确定的好消息，但大家先别着急下结论，这次 降息远没表面看起来那么简单。 首先得说，这次降息的幅度完全符合市场预期。可能有人会问，就降25个基点，是不是太谨慎了？但实际上，这个幅度刚好合适。 要是美联储敢激进降息，比如一下降50个基点，市场反而会多想——是不是美国经济出了大问题，甚至要衰退了？一旦这么想，恐慌情绪很容易起来。 美股要是大幅波动，全球那些容易受影响的资产（比如股票、基金）都躲不开，咱们A股市场也得跟着承压。所以说，25个基点是理性又克制的选择：既告 诉市场"接下来会放宽松"，又避免大家反应过度。 更值得关注的是，现在市场预期十月再降息的概率已经飙到了97.4%，宽松的趋势已经没什么可怀疑的了。 但真正要警惕的是美联储的"组合策略"——一边降息放钱到市场里，一边还维持着缩表的节奏不变。所谓缩表，就是美联储卖出手里的债券，把市场上的钱 收回来。 一边放水、一边抽水，这看似矛盾的操作背后，其实是美联储在 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points (BP) and indicated the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year[1] - Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, suggesting a more hawkish stance and uncertainty about future rate cuts[1][3] - The dot plot indicates two potential rate cuts remaining this year, but the actual implementation may be uncertain[6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was slightly revised up from 1.4% to 1.6%, driven by investment rather than consumption[3][17] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.5% for 2025, indicating a weak supply-demand balance in the labor market[4][17] - The year-end PCE inflation forecast is maintained at 3.0%, with core PCE inflation also stable[6][17] Group 3: Market Implications - The current economic transition from consumption to investment may lead to structural changes in employment data, with a potential decline in non-farm employment central tendency[7] - The tightening liquidity in the dollar system may prompt the Fed to end balance sheet reduction earlier than expected, with a potential threshold reached by Q4[8][9] - The outlook for major assets suggests a bullish trend for both the RMB and the USD index, with expectations of continued appreciation for the RMB against the USD[10]

美东时间9月17日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25%至4.5%降至4.00%至4.25%，降幅25个基点。这是美联 储今年开年以来九个月内首次决定降息。联储自去年9月到12月连续三次会议降息，本周再度行动后，本轮宽松周期的合计降息降幅达125个基点。 本次会议的降息决定完全在投资者意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）的工具显示，期货市场预计联储本周降息25个基点的概率约为96%，10月下次 会议继续降息的概率约为80%，12月进一步降息的概率接近74%。美国财长贝森特周二称，市场正在消化从现在到年底合计降息75个基点的预期。 在会后公布的会议声明中，美联储主要调整了就业方面的表述，特别提到就业下行的风险增加。更新的利率预期体现出，多数联储决策者预计的今年降息次 数由6月公布的两次提高到三次，即在本周降息后，还会由两次25个基点的降息。 本次降息决议只有一名FOMC投票委员——特朗普"钦点"的理事米兰反对，至少目前看来，联储内部的降息分歧还没有出现两票反对的上次会议时大。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的资深联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在联储会后发文称，对就 ...

Group 1 - Recent adjustments in the sovereign debt markets of Europe and Japan have led to a global financial market risk-off sentiment, driven by political instability and rising expectations for fiscal easing [2][3][33] - The rise in long-term bond yields is primarily attributed to the rebound in inflation and the increase in medium- to long-term inflation expectations, with core CPI in major Western economies returning to the "3 era" [2][3][42] - The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) are marginally tightening their monetary policies, contributing to the rise in bond yields, while the Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting phase [3][53] Group 2 - The U.S. monetary market is undergoing a "stress test" due to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, the rebuilding of the Treasury General Account (TGA), and seasonal tax payments, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the 2019 repo crisis [4][58][61] - The liquidity environment in the U.S. monetary market is somewhat similar to that of September 2019, but the risk of a repeat crisis is considered manageable due to the gradual nature of the Fed's balance sheet reduction and the overall liquidity remaining ample [4][65][69] Group 3 - The risk of a "Treasury tantrum" in the U.S. is currently deemed controllable, with several factors supporting stability in the bond market, including the passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" and improved fiscal conditions [4][78][79] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to trend upward, driven by rising term premiums and a return to a "fiscal dominance" paradigm, with the frequency of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies likely to increase [5][83][84]

Core Viewpoint - The usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) tool has significantly decreased, raising concerns about potential liquidity issues in the market, reminiscent of the 2019 crisis [2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Tools and Market Impact - The ON RRP usage fell below $50 billion, a recent low compared to peaks of $2 trillion in 2022 and 2023, indicating a shift in strategy among money market funds towards short-term Treasury purchases [2] - Analysts predict that ON RRP usage may drop to zero by the end of August but could see a slight increase in September due to quarter-end financing demands [2] - The Federal Reserve established a standing repo facility post-2019 to provide liquidity to primary dealers, aiming to stabilize short-term financing rates [2][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet remains significantly below pre-crisis levels, currently around $6.6 trillion, down from nearly $9 trillion at the pandemic peak [3] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan indicated that banks may turn to the standing repo facility for liquidity if they face funding pressures next month, suggesting a potential further reduction in reserves [3] - Recent trends show that repo rates have averaged about 8 basis points lower than reserve rates, indicating room for further reserve reductions [3] Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Projections - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue reducing its balance sheet by the end of the year unless a significant market shock occurs [5] - Current market conditions are characterized by low volatility, with no immediate concerns prompting investor anxiety [5] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet adjustments is often overlooked, despite its significant influence on market dynamics [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is engaged in a heated debate regarding the neutral interest rate (r-star) amidst challenges of weakening economic momentum and liquidity management [1][2] - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that structural factors limiting long-term interest rates remain strong, suggesting that the natural equilibrium rate of the U.S. economy is still hovering at pre-pandemic lows [1][2] - The current target range for the federal funds rate is maintained at 4.25%-4.5%, with median forecasts for the neutral rate around 3%, reflecting significant internal divergence among policymakers [2] Group 2 - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that employment concerns have become a key consideration, opening the door for a potential rate cut in September due to rising unemployment [3] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction process is entering a critical phase, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan warning of potential temporary pressures in the money market [4] - The current reserve balance in the banking system stands at $3.3 trillion, indicating substantial room before reaching the estimated "minimum adequate level" of $2.7 trillion [4] Group 3 - Lorie Logan emphasized the need for reform in communication mechanisms within the Fed, proposing changes to the presentation of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) to enhance policy transparency [5] - Analysts predict that the Fed will face three major challenges in the coming months: the debate over the magnitude of rate cuts due to differing views on neutral rates, precision in liquidity management during the balance sheet reduction phase, and maintaining policy continuity amid leadership transitions [6] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs' chief economist expects the Fed may implement an unconventional 50 basis point cut in September if the labor market deteriorates faster than anticipated [7] - UBS Wealth Management's investment director highlighted two critical moments for investors to watch: the September FOMC meeting's guidance on rate cuts and market reactions when reserve levels exceed $3 trillion in the fourth quarter [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a strong rebound after a brief adjustment, with a notable increase of $35, but faced a subsequent pullback, indicating a volatile trading environment around the $3400 mark [1][10]. Market Trends - Gold saw a minor adjustment of only $15 yesterday, followed by a V-shaped recovery today [3]. - The price surged to $3386 before retreating, suggesting a potential resistance level [4]. - Current focus is on the adjustment and rebound opportunities, particularly around the $3378 level [5]. - A breakthrough above previous highs indicates a target towards the $3400 resistance [6]. Support and Resistance Levels - The market is currently testing the $3378 resistance level, with potential support seen at $3350 [7][8]. - If the price continues to decline, a drop below $3350 could occur [9]. - The overall trend shows a four-month increase followed by a four-month consolidation phase, with the price oscillating around the $3300-$3400 range [10]. Economic Influences - Recent positive U.S. economic data, particularly in housing, has raised inflation expectations, impacting gold prices negatively [11]. - Political pressures from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve have also influenced market dynamics, contributing to gold's volatility [12]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including durable goods orders and consumer confidence, are expected to impact both the stock market and gold prices [13]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on entry and exit points to maximize profits, emphasizing the importance of experience and risk management [13]. - A successful trading strategy involves following experienced traders to achieve higher accuracy and lower risk [13].