来源：市场资讯 （来源：太阳投研札记） 洪灏在《展望 2026：持而盈之》上下篇中，从全球经济格局、中美市场表现、政策走向及资产配置等 多个维度，分析了 2026 年市场的风险与机遇，核心观点可总结为以下两大方面： 特朗普发起的全球贸易战未能改善美国贸易赤字，反而因中国制造业优势和稀土行业整合，让美国谈判 筹码不足；关税政策推高美国通胀预期，进一步复杂化美联储决策。 美国经济与市场：风险积聚，泡沫隐现 1. 货币政策失去独立性，陷入 "三难" 困境 美联储货币政策逐渐从属于美国财政政策，因美国政府债台高筑，美联储需通过购债为财政赤字融资， 其决策受经济增长、通胀高企和金融稳定三重矛盾制约。 美国回购市场流动性紧张，隔夜逆回购工具近乎归零，美联储大概率将停止量化紧缩并重启扩表，但扩 表方式（买短端 / 长端债券）将影响资产价格走势，短期利好市场，长期恐因久期问题难改美股冲高回 落趋势。 2.经济周期步入晚期，半导体与经济周期背离 量化模型显示美国经济未来数月将放缓，而半导体周期仍在冲高，美股涨幅集中于少数科技巨头和 AI 相关企业，市场宽度持续收窄，科技股估值已接近甚至超过 2000 年互联网泡沫水平。 美国私 ...

Macro Economic Overview - China's CPI year-on-year growth has turned positive, driven by rising food prices and core inflation, with the core CPI growth reaching a six-month high of 1.2% [5] - PPI recorded its first month-on-month increase in a year, with a year-on-year decline narrowing, indicating a potential improvement in profitability for leading enterprises [5] - China's exports have significantly declined in October, particularly to developed countries, highlighting increasing economic growth pressures [6] Industry Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 59.5% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24% [6] - The healthcare sector has seen a recent pullback of 10% since October, presenting opportunities in undervalued stocks [6] - The demand for innovative drug research and development is recovering, supported by capital market financing and increased overseas clinical trials [6] Company Analysis - BeiGene (百济神州) has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with a strong sales growth trend driven by its drug Zanu, which is gaining market share in the CLL market [10] - The company achieved a revenue of $3.81 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a 43% year-on-year increase, and expects to exceed its revenue guidance for the fiscal year [10] - BeiGene's operational efficiency has improved, with a reduction in sales and management expenses as a percentage of product sales, leading to a net profit of $125 million in Q3 2025 [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a cautious approach in the healthcare sector, focusing on undervalued stocks such as 三生制药 (3SBio), 固生堂 (Gusongtang), and others [9] - BeiGene is rated as a "Buy" with a target price raised to $392.43, reflecting its strong market position and growth potential in the CLL market [12] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (华虹半导体) reported a record revenue of $635 million in Q3 2025, with a maintained "Hold" rating and a target price of HKD 68, indicating that its valuation is already reflected in the current market price [12]

Core Insights - A severe liquidity crisis erupted in the U.S. financial markets in November, causing global market turmoil and significant asset sell-offs [3][5][12] - The crisis is attributed to the Federal Reserve's inability to continue its quantitative easing policies, leading to a lack of trust in U.S. debt and a tightening of liquidity [7][12][29] Group 1: Market Reactions - The liquidity crisis led to a dramatic sell-off in global markets, with Japan's stock market dropping 4% and South Korea's by 5% on the same day [5][12] - U.S. financial institutions began liquidating assets in Asia to recover cash, resulting in a surge in the U.S. dollar and a sell-off of other currencies like the yen and won [5][7] Group 2: Underlying Issues - The U.S. faces three major challenges: excessive national debt raising doubts about repayment, government shutdowns reducing market liquidity, and the emergence of stablecoins diverting funds from traditional banks [13][19][21] - Bank reserves have fallen below $3 trillion, nearing a critical threshold identified by Federal Reserve officials, indicating a severe liquidity crunch [15][17] Group 3: Government and Political Dynamics - The government shutdown is a result of political conflicts over healthcare spending, with implications for market stability and potential impacts on the upcoming elections [25][27] - If the government resumes spending, it could temporarily inject $700 billion into the market, but this would not address the underlying issues of fiscal sustainability [27][29] Group 4: Future Implications - The current trajectory of U.S. fiscal policy, including potential tax cuts and increased spending, could exacerbate the national deficit and undermine confidence in the dollar [29][31] - Investment in sectors like AI, while promising, may not translate into broader economic benefits, risking the creation of financial bubbles similar to past crises [31][33] Group 5: Global Context - The liquidity crisis in the U.S. is not just a national issue but poses a significant challenge to the global financial order, with potential repercussions for international markets [36][37]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases to meet liquidity demands in the banking system [1][2] - The Fed has officially ended its three-year balance sheet reduction process, which began in 2022, reversing the large-scale asset purchases made during the pandemic [2] - The current balance sheet level is stabilized at approximately $6.6 trillion, following signals that the balance sheet reduction has been sufficient [2] Group 1 - Williams indicated that the Fed will begin a gradual asset purchase process when bank reserves drop from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" levels [1] - Analysts expect the Fed may start expanding its holdings through asset purchases in the first quarter of next year [1] - Williams emphasized that purchasing bonds for maintaining adequate liquidity is a natural extension of the adequate reserves strategy and does not indicate a change in monetary policy stance [1] Group 2 - Williams is closely monitoring various market indicators related to the federal funds market, repo market, and payments to assess reserve demand [3] - He noted that determining when the Fed reaches the necessary reserve levels to inject funds into the system is quite challenging [3] - Recent pressures in the repo market and signs of reserves moving from "ample" to "adequate" suggest that reaching adequate reserve levels may not be far off [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has recently made significant moves by cutting interest rates twice within a month, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, and has announced a complete halt to its balance sheet reduction [1][2][3] - The rapid response from the Federal Reserve is attributed to the overwhelming national debt, which has surpassed $38 trillion, leading to substantial interest payments that consume a significant portion of federal revenue [4][6] - The halt in balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts are seen as reactive measures rather than proactive strategies, indicating a challenging economic environment [3][4] Group 2 - The easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to provide more flexibility for China's central bank, potentially allowing for more aggressive monetary easing without the risk of capital flight [8][9] - China's recent optimization of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and the upcoming expansion of the Southbound ETF Connect are aimed at attracting foreign investment, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [9][10] - The inflow of foreign capital into Chinese markets is anticipated to increase, with estimates suggesting up to $200 billion could enter the Chinese stock market over the next 12 months [12][13] Group 3 - Investment strategies should focus on sectors that foreign investors are prioritizing, particularly technology and consumer goods, as these areas are expected to see significant growth [14][15] - The bond market is also highlighted as a safe investment option, with expectations of declining interest rates making government bonds an attractive choice for risk-averse investors [17][18] - The overall market environment is characterized by a shift in global capital flows, with opportunities arising for those who remain patient and strategic in their investment approach [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current overseas market has relatively scarce liquidity, leading to a general decline in major risk assets and weak performance of gold and silver prices. However, the tightening liquidity means a higher probability of subsequent expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which will significantly drive up the prices of gold and silver. The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period, but the Fed Chairman has explained the balance - sheet expansion. The October interest - rate meeting sent a signal that the December interest rate cut is still uncertain while strengthening the subsequent "interest rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy approach. In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with the potential tightness in the physical market, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 5, 2025, Shanghai gold fell 1.14% to 908.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.17% to 11226.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 3941.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 46.90 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.1%, and the US dollar index was 100.19 [1] - From November 3 to November 4, 2025, the closing price of COMEX gold active contract dropped from 4013.70 dollars/ounce to 3941.30 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 1.80%; the trading volume increased from 22.38 million lots to 24.46 million lots, an increase of 9.30%. The closing price of COMEX silver active contract dropped from 47.91 dollars/ounce to 46.90 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 2.12%; the trading volume increased from 126.80 million lots to 135.28 million lots, an increase of 6.69% [5] 3.2 Market Analysis - The significant increase in the difference between the US SOFR rate and the EFFR shows that under the background of the US government shutdown, the US Treasury account occupies a large amount of funds, and the reserves on the Fed's liability side are scarce. The tightening liquidity is in line with Powell's previous speech, and the Fed will suspend balance - sheet reduction on December 1 [1] - In the silver physical market, although the premium of London silver relative to New York silver and the lease rate are relatively weak, the silver premium in India has significantly rebounded, indicating strong domestic silver demand in India [2] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with the potential tightness in the physical market, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, including interest rate cuts and the cessation of balance sheet reduction, signal a significant shift in global monetary policy dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the total reduction for the year to 0.5% [4]. - There is a market expectation for another similar rate cut in December, although the probability has slightly decreased [4]. - The Fed's decision to stop "balance sheet reduction" marks a transition from actively withdrawing liquidity to a potential resumption of balance sheet expansion [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The cessation of balance sheet reduction is seen as a positive development for the Chinese economy, which is currently facing downward pressure [9]. - The narrowing of interest rate differentials between the U.S. and China may provide the Chinese central bank with more room for rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [9]. - The adjustments in U.S. monetary policy are expected to trigger a series of reactions globally, affecting capital flows and exchange rates [9]. Group 3: Government Influence - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly due to past interventions by the Trump administration [7]. - The administration's attempts to influence Fed policy could complicate the central bank's decision-making process and its ability to respond to economic conditions [7].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates for the second time this year, with the target range for the federal funds rate set between 3.75% and 4.00% [3] - The Fed announced a significant decision to stop the balance sheet reduction, which is a part of its monetary policy [34] Group 2 - The balance sheet refers to the financial statement that reflects all assets, liabilities, and equity of an entity at a specific date [7] - The equation for the balance sheet is assets = liabilities + equity, indicating that the left side always equals the right side [9] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction involves selling various bonds to decrease the size of its bond holdings, effectively pulling money out of circulation [32]

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.8%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 1.9%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.1%, the ChiNext Index fell by 1.8%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.2% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were steel (+0.9%), non-ferrous metals (+0.8%), utilities (+0.1%), transportation (+0.1%), and banking (+0.1%). The worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (-2.8%), electronics (-2.2%), defense and military (-2.0%), media (-1.9%), and comprehensive (-1.8%) [4] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 24,217 billion yuan, with a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 13.64 billion Hong Kong dollars [4] Important Insights Fixed Income Credit Bonds - The report defines exiting the low-interest rate environment as the 10-year government bond yield rising trend-wise above 2%. It notes that overseas economies typically exit low rates due to a combination of improving fundamentals and tightening monetary policy. In contrast, while China's economy is in a mild recovery phase, there is a lack of fundamental and policy support for a significant rise in interest rates in the short term, suggesting that the low-interest rate environment may persist for a longer duration. Based on overseas experiences, the median duration for major economies to exit low rates is 4.77 years, implying that China may require an additional 4 years to exit this phase [5] Macroeconomic Research - The report discusses the hawkish guidance from Powell regarding a potential rate cut in December, stating that there is "no conclusion yet." Market expectations for rate cuts may narrow, with no change in viewpoints. The driving factors include data releases, and there is a focus on the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart normalizing balance sheet expansion in 2026 [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, from a range of 4%-4.25% to 3.75%-4%, which was below market expectations of a 50 basis point cut [1][2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed's decision to stop balance sheet reduction is seen as a positive development, as it will enhance market liquidity [5][7]. - The cessation of balance sheet reduction means the Fed will no longer sell assets, preventing a contraction of market liquidity [7][8]. - The true easing of monetary policy is perceived to be more about halting balance sheet reduction rather than the interest rate cut itself [8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the interest rate cut, the Nasdaq index experienced a decline, indicating market disappointment with the smaller-than-expected rate reduction [3][4]. - The market is expected to see increased capital outflows from the U.S., potentially benefiting assets in other countries [8]. Group 3: Company Insights - Nvidia has reached a market capitalization of over $5 trillion, becoming the first company to achieve this milestone, and is positioned to dominate the AI hardware market [10]. - The performance of various liquor companies has been disappointing, with Wuliangye facing significant challenges, suggesting a need for a recovery period similar to the real estate market [12]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The Nasdaq index is currently at a high valuation, and historical patterns suggest a potential adjustment, with recommendations to start investing during a 15% pullback and to buy heavily during a 30% drop [13]. - The Shanghai Ningquan Asset Management Company has paused new investor subscriptions, a move typically aimed at protecting investors during high market valuations [14][15].