1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. The copper price continued to rise yesterday, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. - The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances and Fed's actions. Although the 2026 long - term TC is 0, smelters can maintain cash - flow profit if by - product profits are high enough. - SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, with sufficient spot supply. High prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to a large discount in spot this week, inventory accumulation, and weakened downstream开工率 and order release. - The upward drivers are further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; the downward driver is weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, and the main contract should focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures maintained a low - level oscillation. The fundamental pattern of oversupply has not improved. The supply is rigid, and the whole - industry chain inventory has reached a new high, forming a self - strengthening mechanism. The cost support level is moving down. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. - Electrolytic aluminum futures maintained a high - level oscillation. The macro environment is favorable, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market showed a strong - oscillation trend. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the procurement cost is high. The high aluminum price has suppressed the purchasing willingness of downstream die - casting enterprises. - The social inventory has been decreasing slightly for several weeks. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and the terminal demand is weak. The zinc price is oscillating weakly. - Domestic zinc ore production has decreased in November, and the import window has opened. The smelter has reduced production due to profit pressure. - The downstream processing industry's开工率 is stable. The social inventory has been decreasing, but the overall demand is general at the end of the year. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the squeeze - out risk has eased. The main contract should focus on the 22,850 - 22,950 support level [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, and the export volume of Indonesia has increased significantly in November. - The tin - soldering enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted. - The supply in Myanmar and Indonesia shows improvement signs. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and subsequent macro and supply - side recovery should be monitored [11]. Nickel - The nickel futures price fell slightly. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel ore supply. - The domestic spot nickel price has decreased, and the spot trading is average. The supply of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is still tight. - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has decreased, and the Indonesian ore production target in 2026 has been significantly reduced. The price of nickel iron has strong bottom support. - The terminal demand is weak, and the overseas inventory accumulation has slowed down, while the domestic social inventory pressure has increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate and recover, with the main contract reference range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures price oscillated narrowly. The spot market's inquiry atmosphere has cooled, and the trading volume is average. - The Fed has cut interest rates, and the domestic central bank has injected liquidity. The market expects tightened nickel ore supply. - The supply is at a relatively high level, but some enterprises may conduct annual maintenance at the end of the year. The demand is in the off - season, and the social inventory is decreasing but still at a high level. - The short - term market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand game continues. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - [missing in the report] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The main contract LC2605 rose 0.44% to 123,520. - The recent news is abundant. Some production lines of Hunan Yueneng will be under maintenance in January, and Wanrun New Energy will reduce production for maintenance. - The current fundamentals show both supply and demand growth. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand maintains certain resilience. The inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term price is supported by the tight - balance fundamentals, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price oscillated and recovered after a low opening. - The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily. The expectation of industrial silicon production reduction is rising. Multiple enterprises plan to shut down furnaces for maintenance. - The demand from polysilicon is expected to decrease significantly in January. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price rose significantly. - The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises hope to drive up the whole - industry chain price, and downstream enterprises have raised their quotes, but profits are still under pressure. - The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the futures price is still at a large premium to the spot. Attention should be paid to production - reduction implementation and price - fall pressure [19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.07%); the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton ( - 0.23%); the SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 was at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton ( - 0.77%); the premium was 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin was at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 3,600 yuan/ton ( - 1.07%); the LME 0 - 3 premium was 130 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars/ton (100%) [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2,800 yuan/ton ( - 2.15%); the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 7,250 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton (7.41%) [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton ( - 0.38%) [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan/ton (3.35%) [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon was at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Polysilicon**: N - type polycrystalline silicon (average price) was at 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In November, electrolytic copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.15 million tons (1.05%); imports were 27.11 million tons, down 1.10 million tons ( - 3.90%) [1]. - **Aluminum**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 34.6 million tons ( - 4.44%); domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 10.6 million tons ( - 2.82%) [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 3.7 million tons (5.74%); the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 1.7 million tons (5.84%) [5]. - **Zinc**: In November, refined zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 2.20 million tons ( - 3.56%); imports were 1.82 million tons, down 0.06 million tons ( - 3.22%) [9]. - **Tin**: In October, tin ore imports were 11,632 tons, up 2,918 tons (33.49%); SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, up 5,580 tons (53.09%) [11]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production in [month not clear] was 33,342 tons, down 3,453 tons ( - 9.38%); imports were 9,741 tons, down 18,626 tons ( - 65.66%) [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in [month not clear] was 178.70 million tons, down 1.30 million tons ( - 0.72%); Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.15 million tons (0.36%) [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 tons, up 3,090 tons (3.35%); demand was 133,451 tons, up 6,490 tons (5.11%) [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: National industrial silicon production in [month not clear] was 40.17 million tons, down 5.05 million tons ( - 11.17%); Xinjiang's was 23.76 million tons, up 0.20 million tons (0.83%) [18]. - **Polysilicon**: In [month not clear], polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 1.94 million tons ( - 14.48%); imports were 0.11 million tons, down 0.04 million tons ( - 27.05%) [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇12月24日｜据期货日报，齐盛期货贵金属首席分析师刘旭峰就2026年贵金属市场走势进行了深度 解读。他认为，贵金属的商品属性有望取代金融与货币属性，成为驱动价格的主导力量，白银供需缺口 的扩大或对价格形成支撑，结合海外宏观环境变化，投资者需重点关注流动性风险。关键转折点可能出 现在2026年年中。刘旭峰分析，美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，市场预计"鸽派"色彩浓 厚的凯文·哈塞特将接任，若其当选，那么美联储货币政策宽松节奏就可能加快。同时，为应对经济下 行压力与史上最长的政府"停摆"事件，美联储已重启扩表，但需警惕流动性边际收紧的潜在风险。 (本 内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have increased from $2,614 to $4,380 year-to-date, representing a rise of approximately 67%, making it one of the best-performing asset classes this year. The bullish trend in gold is expected to continue into 2026 due to the shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a form of quantitative easing (QE) by announcing a $450 billion monthly purchase of short-term government bonds, with $200 billion aimed at meeting monetary demand and $250 billion for replenishing reserves. This move is seen as "invisible QE" despite the Fed's claims that it is merely a technical adjustment [3] - The liquidity gap in the U.S. is projected to reach $300 billion by 2026, indicating that merely halting the balance sheet reduction is insufficient to meet market liquidity needs. This could lead to inflationary pressures similar to those experienced during the pandemic, which previously triggered a bull market in gold [3] Group 2 - In 2025, the Federal Reserve, under Chairman Powell, executed three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points. However, the situation may change in 2026 with potential new leadership favoring lower interest rates [4] - Candidates for the new Federal Reserve chair, such as Kevin Hassett and Kevin Walsh, advocate for lowering rates below current levels, which could undermine the Fed's independence. This shift may align with President Trump's expansionary fiscal policies [4] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a potential rate cut in 2026, but weak employment and stable inflation may lead to two additional cuts, particularly in the first half of the year, with a lower bound around 3%. If the economy enters a recession, the Fed may tolerate inflation above 3% to support economic growth [4] Group 3 - Technically, gold is forming a bullish continuation pattern on the daily chart, approaching previous highs, but there are signs of overbought conditions. A potential pullback to around $4,230 is possible, while the overall outlook remains bullish with a target of $4,500 [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-23 静待消费跟进，基本金属震荡整固 有⾊观点：静待消费跟进，基本⾦属震荡整固 交易逻辑：11月美国CPI低于市场预期提振降息预期，但美联储新一任候 选人还处于遴选中；12月10-11日中央经济工作会议召开，定调较为积 极，继续"国补"，国内消费预期有望改善，整体上看，宏观面偏正面。 原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。 终端略偏弱，12月初汽车销售延续放缓，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年 1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需偏宽松，但预期偏紧。整体来 看，中短期，供应扰动担忧继续支撑价格，但高价对消费抑制对价格进一 步涨势构成约束，可继续关注铜铝低吸做多机会，锡近期涨幅较大且累库 加快，多头适当减仓为宜；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且 铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：铜矿⻓单加⼯费落地，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：库存有所累积，铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点：关注需求变化，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 16 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢高做空 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 逢高减仓，低位企稳后回补 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强官网 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | ...

铜周报：美联储降息偏鸽，纽铜库存持续新高 2025-12-15 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜偏强震荡。截至上周五收至84080元/吨，周张幅1.40%，铜价再创历史新高，但周末夜盘大幅回落。宏观方面美联储如 期降息25基点鲍威尔表态偏中性，同时重启扩表。国内召开中央经济工作会议提振市场情绪。基本面铜精矿TC仍处于历史负值低位， 自由港的印尼Grasberg预期将于明年二季度复产，铜矿紧缺支撑铜价中枢，下游淡季需求放缓，但新能源、储能相关的铜箔开工率仍 有所提升，铜价或延续高位震荡运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 25-12-12 25-12-08 25-12-02 25-11-26 25-11-20 25-11-14 25-11-10 25-11-04 25-10-29 25-10-23 25-10-17 25-10-13 25-09-29 25-09-23 25-09-17 25-09-11 25-09-05 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass for shorting on rallies [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and replenish on lows; aluminum for increased observation; nickel for waiting or shorting on rallies; tin for range trading; gold for range trading; silver for holding long positions and cautious new positions; lithium carbonate for strong - side oscillation [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC for range trading; caustic soda for temporary waiting; soda ash for temporary waiting; styrene for range trading; rubber for range trading; urea for range trading; methanol for range trading; polyolefins for weak - side oscillation [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn for strong - side oscillation; PTA for upward oscillation; apples for strong - side oscillation; red dates for weak - side oscillation [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs for a strategy of shorting on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness for far - term contracts; eggs for limited upside; corn for cautious chasing of highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; soybean meal for range operation; oils for gradually taking profit on previously established short positions [1]. Core Views - The market is influenced by a variety of factors, including macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different sectors and varieties have different trends and investment strategies due to their unique fundamentals [1][6][8]. - Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, such as oversupply in soda ash and strong supply pressure in the pig market, while others benefit from factors like improving demand or supply disruptions, like the potential support for tin prices from supply tightness [18][34]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Medium - to long - term bullish, with short - term possible sideways movement. Influenced by factors such as potential Fed chair appointments, Chinese economic data, and policy responses to the central economic work conference [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade sideways. Driven by factors like central bank policies, regulatory changes, and the need for year - end configuration [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended. The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal supports [8]. - **Rebar**: Range trading is advised. With low valuations and weak drivers, prices may oscillate weakly [8]. - **Glass**: Shorting on rallies is suggested. High inventory, weak demand, and potential supply increases lead to a bearish outlook [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation is expected. Macro - easing expectations and long - term supply shortages support prices, but short - term over - rise has curbed consumption and increased adjustment risks [11][12]. - **Aluminum**: A rebound is possible, but increased observation is recommended. Factors include changes in bauxite prices, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities, and demand in the off - season [13]. - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. Long - term supply surplus exists, but new RKAB policies bring uncertainties [16]. - **Tin**: Range trading is recommended. Supply is tight, and downstream consumption is weak, but prices are expected to be supported [18]. - **Silver**: Sideways movement. Fed policies, economic data, and industrial demand support prices, with a strategy of holding long positions and cautious new positions [18]. - **Gold**: Range trading is advised. Fed policies and economic uncertainties lead to a bullish medium - term outlook [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Strong - side oscillation. Supply is affected by mine situations, and demand is strong, with attention needed on mine developments [20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Low - level oscillation. Weak domestic demand, high inventory, and uncertain export growth lead to a weak outlook, but low valuations and potential policy supports exist [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cautiously bearish, with temporary waiting. High inventory, weak demand from downstream alumina, and potential production changes are factors [23]. - **Styrene**: Sideways movement. Overseas blending logic has limited impact on the weak fundamentals, with attention on price changes [24]. - **Rubber**: Sideways movement. Uncertain supply - demand, high inventory, and weak downstream demand lead to a range - bound market [24][25]. - **Urea**: Sideways movement. Supply increases, and demand is a mix of weakening agricultural demand and strengthening industrial demand, with inventory changes affecting prices [26][27]. - **Methanol**: Sideways movement. Supply is stable, demand from methanol - to - olefins is mixed, and traditional demand is weak, with inventory decreases [27]. - **Polyolefins**: Weak - side oscillation. Supply is strong, demand is weak, especially for PE agricultural film, but inventory reduction provides some support [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Temporary waiting. Supply surplus is the main pressure, but cost support and potential supply contractions are factors [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Strong - side oscillation. Global supply - demand is relatively loose, but domestic sales and yarn prices support the market [31]. - **PTA**: Upward oscillation. Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices, and PTA supply - demand is in a de - stocking phase [31][33]. - **Apples**: Strong - side oscillation. Market trading is general, with prices in different regions showing certain ranges [33]. - **Red Dates**: Weak - side oscillation. Acquisition progress is in the late stage, and enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is general [33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Sideways bottom - building. Short - term supply pressure exists, and long - term prices are affected by capacity reduction and cost changes, with different strategies for near - and far - term contracts [34]. - **Eggs**: Limited upside. Short - term spot and futures are range - bound, medium - term supply - demand improves marginally, and long - term supply pressure remains [35][36][37]. - **Corn**: Rebound. Short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and long - term demand gradually recovers, but supply - demand is relatively loose [37]. - **Soybean Meal**: Range oscillation. Near - term contracts are strong due to supply delays and de - stocking, while far - term contracts are weak due to South American production expectations [38]. - **Oils**: Soybean and palm oils for weak - side oscillation, rapeseed oil for limited rebound. Different supply - demand situations and external factors lead to different trends [38][42].

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 03222 | 92665 | +930.00 | 1.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | 5 | -25.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 93650 | 92785 | +865.00 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેર | ୧୧ | +30.00 | - | 元/肥 | | SMM湿法铜 | 93505 | 92585 | +920.00 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -110 | -75 | -35.00 | - | 7C/ http | | 精废价差 | 4797 | 4007 | +79 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 美联储重启扩表 2025年12月12日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 全球经济展望 【全球经济展望】 美联储降息25个基点，每月购买400亿美元短债，美联储资产负债表重新开启扩张。高盛分析师警告，当前 拉斯维加斯博彩收入下滑的消费趋势，与2008年金融危机前的早期预警信号高度相似。美国发布新版《国家安全 战略》，放弃全球霸权，将调整与中国的经济关系，重振美国经济自主地位。美联储褐皮书显示，消费者K型分 化加剧，高收入消费者支出保持韧性，但中低收入家庭正"勒紧裤腰带"。高盛指出美联储会议最大看点是鲍威尔 承认非农就业存在"系统性高估"。目前官方数据每月或虚高6万人，实际就业市场可能已陷入"月减2万"的负 增长泥潭。机构预计失业率上升将倒逼降息，市场正在押注更激进宽松。 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全球经济、美债、美股、美元、贵金属、工业金属等大类资产产生 颠覆式深远影响。鉴于美国连续的错误政策，全球经济正在越过顶部区域 ...