Core Viewpoint - The current economic data should be interpreted cautiously due to frequent revisions and inconsistencies, with expectations of further downward adjustments in job numbers for 2023 and 2024 [2][3] Economic Growth and Labor Market - There is a trend of good economic growth data, but it is not translating into significant job creation, with productivity growth and real wages increasing, although not rapidly enough to concern the Federal Reserve [3][11] - The economy is experiencing impressive GDP growth, with two consecutive quarters of 4% growth without substantial job creation, indicating a productivity-driven economic environment reminiscent of the 1990s [11][12] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's asset purchases, referred to as reserve management purchases (RMPs), are effectively functioning as quantitative easing (QE), adding liquidity to the market and positively influencing risk asset markets [4][5][6] - The Fed's balance sheet actions are significant, and the market's positive reaction to the recent FOMC meeting reflects this [7] Market Outlook - The outlook for equities remains constructive, with expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve, which is generally bullish for risk assets [12][14] - Oil prices are at multi-year lows, and there are indications that interest rates may decline, potentially leading to lower mortgage rates, which supports a bullish sentiment in the market [13] Transition of Federal Reserve Leadership - Anticipation exists regarding the market's response to a new Fed chair, with historical patterns suggesting that new leadership often faces challenges from the market [8][9] - The credibility of the new Fed composition will play a crucial role in how risk assets respond, with potential for volatility during the transition [14]

Joining us now with more on that China and maybe even a little touch of Venezuela is Kyle Bass, founder and CIO at Haymon Capital Management. Kyle, I hope you're ready because we got a lot of things that we want to hit with you. Are you ready. >> I'm ready.>> Let's do this. All right, let's kick things off maybe with the Federal Reserve. Obviously, you're very well known for subprime years ago.Some people suggest the Federal Reserve is making a policy mistake by keeping rates too high for too long. What say ...

James Foord is an economist by trade and has been analyzing global markets for the past decade. He leads the investing group The Pragmatic Investor where the focus is on building robust and truly diversified portfolios that will continually preserve and increase wealth. The Pragmatic Investor covers global macro, international equities, commodities, tech and cryptocurrencies and is designed to guide investors of all levels in their journey. Features include a The Pragmatic Investor Portfolio, weekly market ...

Key Points Bitcoin’s historical price rise has coincided with the ongoing increases in federal debt and money supply. Bitcoin continues to integrate with the traditional financial services industry, with unique products coming to market. Its future returns will likely not be as strong as those it delivered in the past. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is an extremely polarizing asset. There are strong supporters who believe it can go to the moon. There are also thunde ...

The Federal Reserve cast the move as management of money-market conditions. Others see coordination with the Treasury to help fund the deficit and suppress long-term yields. ...

Market Sentiment - The negativity in the market is largely attributed to Oracle's performance, with Nasdaq futures down more than 80 points [1] - There is a growing disappointment regarding the Federal Reserve's policies, which may be overshadowing the Oracle narrative [2][4] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - The Fed's recent actions, including buying Treasury bills, are generally seen as positive for financial assets, but the market reaction has been more negative [3] - Investors are concerned about the lack of certainty regarding future policies, leading to a cautious approach as liquidity decreases towards year-end [4] Future Market Outlook - Despite current market challenges, there is a belief that stock markets will rise significantly by 2026 due to resilient growth and supportive fiscal policies [6][7] - The upcoming events, including central bank meetings, are expected to influence market focus, with particular attention on the ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan [9][10]

For more on today's decision, let's get to senior economics reporter Steve Leeman, who is in Washington. Steve, >> hey Melissa. Yeah, the Fed following through on an expected hawkish rate cut, reducing rates by a quarter point to the new range of 3 and a half to 375, but signaling might be done cutting, at least for now.It appeared to buoy markets, however, with a more aggressive policy than expected for the balance sheet. On RA, the statement, what it did, it used language that it had used in the past to s ...

Today, the Fed officially opened the floodgates. Now, we have a lot to talk about. Specifically, we are going to go over exactly what I mean by that statement, and we're also going to go over the time frame in which we should be expecting this to affect the market in a very positive way.Now, right off the rip, I do want to start off by looking at the market cap of crypto. So far we have been hovering just above $3 trillion currently at about $3.15% trillion. Fear and greed back to about roughly 30.This has ...

Group 1 - The meeting was characterized by a focus on being "well positioned," suggesting a cautious but stable outlook from the Fed [1][2][5] - The Fed Chair expressed skepticism about the accuracy of monthly job gains, indicating a potential overstatement of 60,000 jobs, which could imply a more negative job report [2][6] - Inflationary risks were deemphasized, with the Fed Chair framing inflation as less of a concern and highlighting progress made in controlling it [3][4][5] Group 2 - The Fed has cut rates by 175 basis points since September, yet the 2-year Treasury yield remains unchanged, indicating a disconnect between Fed actions and market responses [6][8] - Despite the rate cuts, long-term interest rates, such as the 30-year Treasury, have increased by approximately 75 basis points, suggesting that lower Fed rates may not be beneficial for long-term rates [8][9] - The yield curve steepened following the Fed's cut, with the difference between 2-year and 30-year rates reaching about 124 basis points, indicating potential future increases in long-term interest rates [10]

Let's talk more about that now with Jeff Kilberg. He's the founder and CEO of KKM Financial. What do you say, sir.Welcome. >> Well, Kelly, kind of a surprise. Everyone was looking for a cut in rates, but more hawkish, and we actually got more.If you think about that 40 billion that going to start purchasing in just a couple days, that's annualized half a trillion dollars of new QE. So, with a $6.5% trillion balance sheet, I think a lot of folks were surprised. That was the initial reaction, equities, but yo ...