The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) rose 0.88% to 6,834.50, the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) gained 1.31% to 23,307.62 on tech strength, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDEX: ^DJI) added 0.38% to 48,134.89, all navigating volatile quad‑witching flows. Market movers AI‑linked and broader tech names led market gains today. Strength in Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) bouyed prices while consumer stocks lagged. Nike (NYSE:NKE) and Lamb Weston (NYSE:LW) slid on underwhelming ear ...

Let's continue the conversation right here with Toron Slack. He's chief economist at Apollo Global Management. Um, you have a favorite in that Fed race, by the way.Well, so I don't have a personal favorite, but I think it's clear that the market is trying to chew hard on which of these candidates will have implications for what's happening, especially of course in rates. What the conclusion of course here is that it all becomes about can the new fetcher persuade the other FOMC members about whatever his vie ...

Let's continue the conversation right here with Toron Slack. He's chief economist at Apollo Global Management. Um, you have a favorite in that Fed race, by the way.Well, so I don't have a personal favorite, but I think it's clear that the market is trying to chew hard on which of these candidates will have implications for what's happening, especially of course in rates. What the conclusion of course here is that it all becomes about can the new fetcher persuade the other FOMC members about whatever his vie ...

The U.S. economy has been experiencing the peculiar dynamic of rising inflation and slowing job growth over the past year. While I haven't called this stagflation in the past, the phenomenon did create complexityAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than fr ...

Michael Burry, the ‘Big Short’ investor famed for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, has issued a dire warning about the trajectory of the U.S. stock market. On Wednesday, Burry highlighted a rare shift in household wealth allocation—stocks overtaking real estate—suggesting it serves as a historic harbinger for a downturn that could last for years.The ‘Exhibit 12’ SignalTaking to X, Burry shared a chart titled “Exhibit 12,” sourced from Wells Fargo Securities and Bloomberg. The data tracks U.S. household ...

Diane, how would you describe uh this. Is it abnormal. Is it funky.Are we just in a waiting period of transition. What What do you say is going on here. >> Well, it certainly is an early chill for the holiday season, but I think you know consumers are still spending, which is ironic.The core retail sales, which goes into the GDP calculation for the retail sales data, actually was up 0.9%. So much better than that headline figure suggested. and data for September and August were revised up.So, we came into t ...

They could do even better in a future recession as investors pour into under-appreciated defensive assets. Investors have piled into tech stocks to the point where they constitute a plurality of their portfolios, if not the large majority. When a downturn hits the market, a rotation out of tech is likely. All that excess liquidity may end up making its way to the following 3 ETFs. If you are an investor who is securing profits and is buying up dividend ETFs to weather a possible downturn instead, it's not a ...

Market Overview - The Dow closed down 41 points, while the NASDAQ fell about half a percent, indicating a lack of significant movement in major indices ahead of important economic data releases [1][2] - The S&P 500 equal-weighted index showed positive performance, suggesting a broader market strength despite the tech sector's decline [3] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector was the top performer, followed by utilities, while technology and energy sectors experienced declines [4] - Defensive sectors showed some strength, indicating a cautious market sentiment as investors await key reports [4] Ford's Strategic Shift - Ford announced a pivot towards gas-powered vehicles, including more trucks and hybrids, while canceling the Lightning EV pickup due to high costs [25][28] - The company plans to convert existing EV plants into truck production facilities and develop a new range-extended EV model with a 700-mile range [25][26] - Ford will also focus on battery storage solutions for grid-scale operators, acquiring battery plants previously in a joint venture with SK [25][26] Financial Implications for Ford - Ford is set to report a $19.5 billion charge related to special items, with $8 billion attributed to EV asset write-downs and $6 billion for restructuring [26][31] - The market reacted positively to Ford's announcement, with a 2% increase in stock price, indicating investor approval of the strategic changes [29][31] Tesla's Market Position - Tesla shares closed near record highs following the launch of a new robo-taxi test in Austin, although analysts view this as an incremental step rather than a significant breakthrough [37][43] - Concerns remain regarding Tesla's high valuation, with the stock trading at over 175 times 2027 EPS estimates, suggesting potential overvaluation [39][41] - The company has faced a decline in domestic sales, particularly after the expiration of the federal EV tax credit, which may impact future performance [41][43] Economic Data Insights - Upcoming economic data includes the November jobs report, with expectations of 50,000 new jobs and a 4.5% unemployment rate, which will influence the Fed's monetary policy [45][46] - Retail sales data is also anticipated, with core retail sales expected to show stronger underlying consumer strength despite a slowdown in headline sales [47]

The year is winding down, but several critical pieces of economic data will soon be released.With the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year now in the rearview, there aren't too many days left in 2025. However, before investors head off for the holiday season, there could still be some fireworks that strongly impact the broader benchmark S&P 500 index this year, most of which will come out over the next few days.The government plans to release several important pieces of economic data, some of which w ...

Core Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.19% on December 12, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.52% and the 30-year note at 4.85% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Trends - The 10-3 month spread also indicates recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with recent negative spreads observed from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [5] - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs, impacting mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.22% [7] Market Behavior - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [8] - Various ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]