Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Marley Caden here in Chicago alongside Sam Bodis at the New York Stock Exchange. To close out our show today, just some final thoughts on the session and some headlines that stood out to both myself and to Sam.First, of course, Micron's earnings coming up, a top and bottom beat there and better than expected guidance, but also Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He reiterated today concerns about the softening labor market that continue to outweigh worries about rising ...

While trading options can be an incredibly lucrative exercise thanks to the underlying leverage, the practice is also wildly risky. With open-market securities, the most common risk is suffering a decline in paper value. On the other end, a paper loss in derivatives may wipe out your entire principal — or much, much worse for unhinged exotic strategies. Given the dangers, it’s prudent to apply frameworks from risk-management disciplines, particularly the insurance industry. One popular and powerful method ...

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference, following the issuance of the Federal Open Market Committee's statement on interest rate policy, in Washington, D.C., U.S., Sept. 17, 2025.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that weakness in the labor market is outweighing concerns about stubborn inflation, leading to a decision he backed to lower the central bank's key interest rate last week.The Federal Open Market Committee's first cut of the year came amid signs tha ...

Recall that stagflation is categorized as slowing economic growth combined with an inflationary environment. Although unemployment is holding up reasonably well at the moment (exclusive of recent softness in college grad hiring), and tariff price impacts have yet to fully manifest and may prove transitory, the seeds are clearly evident. While not akin to the more acute stagflation of the late 70’s, economists are labeling the current situation more as “stagflation-lite”.Here we highlight 2 small cap food pl ...

Economic Outlook - The Chicago Federal Reserve President expressed caution regarding further interest rate cuts as the U.S. economy faces slower growth and a weaker labor market [1][2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4%-4.25%, marking the first easing of the year [2][3] Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target for over four and a half years, prompting a careful approach to aggressive rate cuts [2][4] - The FOMC's projections suggest a neutral funds rate around 3.1%, indicating potential for further cuts in the benchmark rate [3][4] Labor Market Insights - Recent trends show a significant softening in hiring, although the unemployment rate remains low at 4.3% historically [4] - The Chicago Fed introduced a labor market monitor that forecasts the unemployment rate and includes real-time labor statistics, indicating stability in the labor market [5][6]

Market Overview - The recent market performance has seen record closes for major indices including the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P, and Russell, a phenomenon not observed since 2021 [1] - A pullback in the market is anticipated as healthy corrections are necessary, despite recent upward trends [2][3] Economic Conditions - Current labor numbers are flat or declining, indicating potential stagflation characterized by high inflation and low employment opportunities [4][5] - Historical comparisons suggest stagflation is rare, with the 1970s being a notable period, but the current situation is described as unusual [6] Market Predictions - A potential market selloff is projected, with estimates ranging from a 12% to 17% decline, which is considered a healthy correction [7][8] - There is significant margin money available, approximately $7.2 trillion, which could support market recovery [8] Investment Strategies - The "buy the dip" mentality remains prevalent among retail traders, while institutions are taking profits [9] - Recommended sectors for investment include Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and oil companies, which are expected to perform well amid inflation [12][21] - Specific stocks mentioned as potential buys on dips include John Deere and Caterpillar, with a focus on agricultural technology and equipment [13][19] Government and Policy Impact - Concerns are raised regarding an impending budget crisis, which could negatively impact market stability [15][16] - Historical context indicates that government shutdowns create market uncertainty, which is generally unfavorable [17] Consumer Technology - Apple products, particularly the iPhone 17 Pro Max, are highlighted as attractive investments, reflecting a shift in consumer preference [25]

With multiple experts weighing in on the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into stagflation, it’s not a surprise that several popular securities have attracted elevated short interest — in some cases to an extreme magnitude. It just comes down to the math, particularly negative revisions in the labor market combined with stubbornly elevated inflation. It’s at this point that speculative entities like social media platform Snap Inc (SNAP) appear to raise red flags. Right now, the short interest of SN ...

Citigroup not only sees gains for gold and silver continuing, but say copper and aluminum present the next opportunities in the metals space. - str/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Gold was headed for a fresh record on Monday and silver hit a more than decade high, with Citigroup strategists predicting the rally for the precious metals to continue and carry other metals. Gold GC00 jumped $44.40, or 1.2%, to $3,750 an ounce early Monday, putting it on the path for a fresh closing high, potentially its 36 ...

Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers cautioned that the United States may be heading into a period of stagflation led by President Donald Trump’s trade and tariff policies, citing the lingering effects of tariffs and rising risks for both unemployment and inflation. We’re Likely On The ‘Foothills of Stagflation’ On Thursday, in a post on X, Summers highlighted a snippet from his recent online conver ...

Group 1: Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended at 4.14% on September 19, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.57% and the 30-year note at 4.75% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965, highlighting the impact of events like the 1973 oil embargo [2] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term ones, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] Group 2: Recession Indicators - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a lead time to recessions ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - The most recent negative spread for the 10-2 occurred from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, while the 10-3 month spread was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [3][5] Group 3: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite steady FFR [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.35%, the lowest since October 2024 [7] Group 4: Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [8] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]