Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined due to increased production in major producing countries, particularly India and Brazil, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [2][3][4] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.01 (-0.07%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is down -0.80 (-0.19%) [1] - Sugar prices have retreated to 3-week lows, influenced by a surge in production in India and Brazil [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, reversing a previous deficit [4] Group 2: Production Insights - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million MT, with 428 sugar mills crushing cane as of November 30, up from 376 a year ago [2] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 million MT, with a reported increase of +8.7% year-on-year in the first half of November [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region through mid-November rose by +2.1% year-on-year to 39.179 million MT [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The robust global sugar supply outlook has pressured sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 million MT, reflecting a significant rise from previous estimates [5]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices have experienced fluctuations due to varying production levels in major producing countries, with recent data indicating a bearish outlook for future prices driven by increased output in India and Brazil [2][3][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - On March 1, NY world sugar 11 closed up by 0.24 (+1.64%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up by 7.30 (+1.74%) due to dollar weakness prompting short-covering in sugar futures [1]. - Sugar prices have retreated to three-week lows recently, primarily due to increased production in India and Brazil [2]. Group 2: Production Insights - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported a significant increase in Indian sugar production, with a 43% year-on-year rise to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) for the period of October-November [2]. - Brazil's Conab raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, reflecting a positive outlook for Brazilian sugar output [3]. - Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 8.7% year-on-year to 983 thousand metric tons (MT) in the first half of November, contributing to the overall increase in sugar production [3]. Group 3: Global Supply and Surplus Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4]. - A robust global sugar supply has negatively impacted sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5]. - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, indicating a growing concern over sugar supply outpacing demand [5]. Group 4: India’s Production and Export Potential - The ISMA has raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which may enhance India's export capabilities [6]. - The reduction in the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India from 5 MMT to 3.4 MMT may further support increased sugar exports [6].

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices have declined to three-week lows due to increased production in major producing countries and a weaker Brazilian real, which encourages exports [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -1.01% and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -0.90% [1]. - Sugar prices have been under pressure since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5]. Group 2: Production Insights - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by 43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) [2]. - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 was raised to 45 MMT, with a reported 8.7% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of November [3]. - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an 18.8% year-on-year increase [6]. Group 3: Global Supply Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025/26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4]. - Czarnikow increased its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, reflecting a growing supply outlook [5].

Sugar Market Overview - Sugar prices are mixed, with March NY world sugar 11 up by 0.01 (+0.07%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 down by 2.90 (-0.68%) [1] - Increased sugar production in India is limiting the upside potential for sugar prices, with Indian sugar production from October to November rising by 43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) [1] Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production outlook is bearish for prices, with Conab raising its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of November increased by 8.7% year-on-year to 983 thousand metric tons (MT) [2] - Cumulative Center-South sugar output through mid-November rose by 2.1% year-on-year to 39.179 MMT [2] India's Ethanol Policy - India's food ministry is considering increasing the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which could lead to more cane being diverted to ethanol production, thereby reducing sugar supplies [3] Sugar Export Quotas - India's food ministry announced a quota allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, lower than previous estimates of 2 MMT [4] Global Sugar Surplus Forecast - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [5] - ISO's forecast indicates a +3.2% year-on-year rise in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26 [5] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Robust global sugar supplies have negatively impacted sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [6] - Czarnikow has increased its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, up by 1.2 MMT from a previous estimate of 7.5 MMT [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have increased due to a weaker dollar and are consolidating below recent one-month highs, supported by India's potential increase in ethanol prices which may lead to reduced sugar supplies [2][3] - India's food ministry has allowed mills to export 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar for the 2025/26 season, lower than previous estimates of 2 MMT, following a quota system introduced in 2022/23 due to production issues [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 MMT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with recent lows recorded in both London and New York markets due to higher output in Brazil and expectations of a global surplus [5][6] - Brazil's sugar production estimates for 2025/26 have been raised to 45 MMT, with significant year-on-year increases in sugar output and the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar [6]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are declining due to a forecasted surplus in global sugar production for the 2025-26 marketing year, primarily driven by increased output in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, reversing the previous year's deficit [2]. Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 is down by 0.16 (-1.07%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 is down by 7.70 (-1.81%) [1]. - Sugar prices reached a three-week high recently due to tighter supplies from India, where the food ministry announced a reduced export quota of 1.5 million MT for the 2025/26 season [3]. Group 2: Production Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, following a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, with global sugar production expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT [2]. - Brazil's Conab raised its sugar production estimate for 2025-26 to 45 million MT, up from 44.5 million MT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [5]. - India's Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) increased its sugar production estimate for 2025-26 to 31 million MT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low due to higher output in Brazil and expectations of a global surplus [4]. - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025-26 to 8.7 million MT, up by 1.2 million MT from a previous estimate [4].

Core Insights - Sugar prices are declining, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year nearest-futures low due to expectations of robust global sugar supplies [2] - Brazil's sugar production is projected to increase, contributing to a global sugar surplus, which is pressuring prices [2][3] - India's sugar production estimates have also been raised, indicating a potential increase in exports, further impacting sugar prices negatively [4][5] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 million metric tons (MMT) from 44.5 MMT [3] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of October increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT) [3] - Cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-October rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 MMT [3] Group 2: India's Sugar Production - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [4] - The estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India was cut to 3.4 MMT, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [4] - India's cumulative monsoon rainfall was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating favorable conditions for a bumper sugar crop [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown signs of recovery after early losses, driven by a stronger Brazilian real which has led to short covering in sugar futures [1] - Recent selloffs have pushed NY sugar prices to a 5-year low and London sugar prices to a 4.75-year low, primarily due to increased sugar production in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus [2] Brazil Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season has been revised upwards to 45 million metric tons (MMT), an increase from the previous estimate of 44.5 MMT [3] - In the first half of October, Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT), with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 48.24% from 47.33% the previous year [3] India Sugar Production - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase [4] - India's favorable monsoon conditions have led to expectations of a bumper sugar crop, with cumulative monsoon rainfall reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal [5] - Projections indicate that India's sugar production could rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for the 2025/26 season, following a significant decline in the previous year [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have retreated, with NY sugar reaching a 5-year nearest-futures low due to increased sugar production forecasts in India and Brazil [2][4][5] Group 1: Sugar Production Estimates - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 18.8% year-on-year from the previous forecast of 30 MMT [2] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, increased its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for Brazil to 45 MMT, up from 44.5 MMT [3] - Datagro projected Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 to rise by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 MMT [4] Group 2: Sugar Price Trends - The recent month-long selloff in sugar has led to NY sugar prices hitting a 5-year nearest-futures low and London sugar prices reaching a 4.75-year low, primarily due to higher sugar output and expectations of a global sugar surplus [4] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-October rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 MMT, with sugar output in the first half of October increasing by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 MMT [5] Group 3: Global Sugar Surplus Projections - BMI Group projected a global sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimated a surplus of 4.1 MMT for the same period [4] - The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is expected to negatively impact sugar prices, as abundant monsoon rains have led to a potential bumper crop [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure, with NY sugar reaching a 5-year nearest-futures low due to increased production forecasts from major producers like India and Brazil [2][4]. Production Estimates - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 18.8% year-on-year from the previous forecast of 30 MMT [2]. - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, has increased its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for Brazil to 45 MMT, up from 44.5 MMT [3]. - Datagro projects Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 to rise by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 MMT [4]. Market Dynamics - The recent selloff in sugar prices is attributed to higher sugar output in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus, with BMI Group projecting a surplus of 10.5 MMT for 2025/26 [4]. - Unica reported that Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of October increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT) [5]. - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil's mills rose to 48.24% in the first half of October, up from 47.33% the previous year [5]. Weather Impact - India's Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall was 937.2 mm as of September 30, which is 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [6]. - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India projected a 19% year-on-year increase in sugar production for 2025/26 to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [6].