March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Tuesday closed down -0.15 (-1.01%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -3.80 (-0.90%). Sugar prices tumbled to 3-week lows on Tuesday.  Weakness in the Brazilian real is weighing on sugar prices as the real (^USDBRL) fell to a 1.75-month low against the dollar on Tuesday.  The weaker real encourages export sales by Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Sugar prices are already under pressure due to ramped-up production in India.  Last ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.01 (+0.07%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is down -2.90 (-0.68%). Sugar prices are mixed today.  Ramped-up sugar production in India is limiting the upside in sugar prices.  Last Monday.  The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported that Indian sugar production from Oct-Nov jumped +43% y/y to 4.11 MMT.  The ISMA also reported that 428 sugar mills in India were crushing cane as of November 30, up from 376 a year ago. More News from Barchar ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Tuesday closed up +0.09 (+0.61%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed up +3.00 (+0.71%). Sugar prices settled higher on Tuesday amid a weaker dollar (DXY00), as they continue to consolidate below last Wednesday's 1-month highs.  Sugar is supported by the recent news that India's food ministry said it was considering boosting the price of ethanol used for gasoline blending, which could encourage India's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethan ...

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are declining due to a forecasted surplus in global sugar production for the 2025-26 marketing year, primarily driven by increased output in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, reversing the previous year's deficit [2]. Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 is down by 0.16 (-1.07%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 is down by 7.70 (-1.81%) [1]. - Sugar prices reached a three-week high recently due to tighter supplies from India, where the food ministry announced a reduced export quota of 1.5 million MT for the 2025/26 season [3]. Group 2: Production Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, following a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, with global sugar production expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT [2]. - Brazil's Conab raised its sugar production estimate for 2025-26 to 45 million MT, up from 44.5 million MT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [5]. - India's Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) increased its sugar production estimate for 2025-26 to 31 million MT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low due to higher output in Brazil and expectations of a global surplus [4]. - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025-26 to 8.7 million MT, up by 1.2 million MT from a previous estimate [4].

Core Insights - Sugar prices are declining, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year nearest-futures low due to expectations of robust global sugar supplies [2] - Brazil's sugar production is projected to increase, contributing to a global sugar surplus, which is pressuring prices [2][3] - India's sugar production estimates have also been raised, indicating a potential increase in exports, further impacting sugar prices negatively [4][5] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 million metric tons (MMT) from 44.5 MMT [3] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of October increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT) [3] - Cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-October rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 MMT [3] Group 2: India's Sugar Production - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [4] - The estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India was cut to 3.4 MMT, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [4] - India's cumulative monsoon rainfall was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating favorable conditions for a bumper sugar crop [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown signs of recovery after early losses, driven by a stronger Brazilian real which has led to short covering in sugar futures [1] - Recent selloffs have pushed NY sugar prices to a 5-year low and London sugar prices to a 4.75-year low, primarily due to increased sugar production in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus [2] Brazil Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season has been revised upwards to 45 million metric tons (MMT), an increase from the previous estimate of 44.5 MMT [3] - In the first half of October, Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT), with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 48.24% from 47.33% the previous year [3] India Sugar Production - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase [4] - India's favorable monsoon conditions have led to expectations of a bumper sugar crop, with cumulative monsoon rainfall reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal [5] - Projections indicate that India's sugar production could rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for the 2025/26 season, following a significant decline in the previous year [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have retreated, with NY sugar reaching a 5-year nearest-futures low due to increased sugar production forecasts in India and Brazil [2][4][5] Group 1: Sugar Production Estimates - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 18.8% year-on-year from the previous forecast of 30 MMT [2] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, increased its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for Brazil to 45 MMT, up from 44.5 MMT [3] - Datagro projected Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 to rise by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 MMT [4] Group 2: Sugar Price Trends - The recent month-long selloff in sugar has led to NY sugar prices hitting a 5-year nearest-futures low and London sugar prices reaching a 4.75-year low, primarily due to higher sugar output and expectations of a global sugar surplus [4] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-October rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 MMT, with sugar output in the first half of October increasing by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 MMT [5] Group 3: Global Sugar Surplus Projections - BMI Group projected a global sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimated a surplus of 4.1 MMT for the same period [4] - The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is expected to negatively impact sugar prices, as abundant monsoon rains have led to a potential bumper crop [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure, with NY sugar reaching a 5-year nearest-futures low due to increased production forecasts from major producers like India and Brazil [2][4]. Production Estimates - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 18.8% year-on-year from the previous forecast of 30 MMT [2]. - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, has increased its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for Brazil to 45 MMT, up from 44.5 MMT [3]. - Datagro projects Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 to rise by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 MMT [4]. Market Dynamics - The recent selloff in sugar prices is attributed to higher sugar output in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus, with BMI Group projecting a surplus of 10.5 MMT for 2025/26 [4]. - Unica reported that Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of October increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT) [5]. - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil's mills rose to 48.24% in the first half of October, up from 47.33% the previous year [5]. Weather Impact - India's Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall was 937.2 mm as of September 30, which is 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [6]. - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India projected a 19% year-on-year increase in sugar production for 2025/26 to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [6].

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined sharply, with March NY world sugar closing down 2.94% and December London ICE white sugar down 2.34%, following an increase in Brazil's sugar production estimates for 2025/26 to 45 million metric tons (MMT) from 44.5 MMT [1] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of October increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT) [3] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills rose to 48.24% from 47.33% year-on-year [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South for 2025-26 through mid-October increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 MMT [3] Group 2: Global Sugar Supply and Demand - Datagro projected Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 to rise by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 MMT [2] - BMI Group estimated a global sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics projected a surplus of 4.1 MMT for the same period [2] Group 3: India's Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline of 17.5% year-on-year to 26.2 MMT in 2024/25 [4] - Cumulative monsoon rainfall in India was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating favorable conditions for sugar crop production [4] Group 4: Export Dynamics - India's sugar mills may export up to 4 MMT of sugar in 2025/26, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT, due to a lower diversion of sugar for ethanol production [5] - The assertion from sugar trader Sucden indicates that only 4 MMT of sugar may be diverted for ethanol, which may not alleviate the sugar surplus in India [5]

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.16 (+1.12%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 is up +4.20 (+1.01%) after a three-week decline that pushed prices into oversold territory, leading to technical short covering in sugar futures [1] - Recent weeks have seen sugar prices under pressure, with NY sugar hitting a 5-year nearest-futures low and London sugar a 4.75-year low, primarily due to increased sugar output in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus [2] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of October increased by +1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 48.24% from 47.33% the previous year [3] - Cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through mid-October rose +0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 million tons, contributing to downward pressure on prices [3] Group 3: India's Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production is projected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a significant decline of -17.5% year-on-year to a 5-year low of 26.2 million tons in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm as of September 30, which is 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] Group 4: Export Dynamics - India's sugar mills may export as much as 4 million tons of sugar in 2025/26, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons, due to a projected surplus and limited diversion of sugar for ethanol production [5]