Fed chair Jay Powell said yesterday that President Trump's tariffs had lifted inflation forecasts and were keeping rates on hold. Joining us now for more on the Fed and the US economy, David Malpass, former World Bank president and now distinguished fellow of international finance and inaugural fellow of global business and infrastructure at Purdue's Business School. David, great to have you with us. Hi Melissa, good to be on. Um, where do you think rates would be had it not been for the tariffs? Would we b ...

Threat Landscape - Iran-affiliated hackers pose a potential threat to critical sectors of the US economy [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - High-skilled immigrants, defined as those who arrived in the US for college or after earning a degree elsewhere, significantly contribute to the US economy through innovation, productivity, and fiscal impact [3][4][30] - High-skilled immigrants account for approximately 5% of the US labor force but represent a larger share in industries requiring advanced education, such as information services and pharmaceuticals [3][15] - The median annual earnings for high-skilled immigrants are about $20k higher than their college-educated native-born counterparts in the top 20 industries where they are most prevalent [19][25] Employment and Earnings - As of 2023, there were approximately 8.2 million high-skilled immigrants in the US, up from 3.4 million in 2015, representing 5% of the labor force [8][6] - High-skilled immigrants who came to the US for college earn roughly $15k more annually than those who arrived later and college-educated native-born workers [19][22] - In industries with a high concentration of high-skilled immigrants, median annual earnings for these workers are significantly higher than for their native-born counterparts [25][28] Innovation and Business Formation - High-skilled immigrants constitute 13% of the STEM workforce and hold 29% of US Nobel Prizes, indicating their substantial role in innovation [30][33] - They are responsible for 20% of venture capital-backed startups and patent at double the rate of native-born inventors [35][30] - High-skilled immigrants contribute to 36% of aggregate innovation, as measured by patent citations [35][30] Fiscal Effects - Each additional high-skilled immigrant is estimated to lower the federal budget deficit by approximately $75k over ten years, with those in STEM fields contributing even more [39][40] - The entire stock of high-skilled immigrants in the US is estimated to exert $50-80 billion in downward pressure on the federal deficit annually [40][39] Spillover Effects - The spillover effects of high-skilled immigrants on native-born workers vary, with some studies indicating positive impacts on wages and employment for native workers [41][46] - High-skilled immigrants are associated with increased innovation among native-born inventors, contributing to a higher rate of patenting activity [43][46]

Group 1 - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant reevaluation of asset allocation strategies among money managers, regardless of whether the tariffs are higher or lower than market expectations [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy focuses on acquiring companies with ideal qualitative attributes at attractive prices based on fundamentals, with a long-term holding approach [2] - The portfolio management aims to avoid underperforming stocks while maximizing exposure to high-potential winners, often resulting in a 'Hold' rating for strong companies if their growth opportunities do not meet the threshold or if downside risks are deemed too high [2]