Drug Pricing & Accessibility - The White House is reportedly nearing a deal with drug manufacturers to lower the costs of certain drugs [1] - The Trump administration is preparing to announce a deal to sell WGO and Zepbound for as little as $149 per month for the lowest doses [2] - The deal may include limited coverage for some Medicare patients [2] - Medicaid recipients could potentially be covered under the deal [3] Specific Drugs & Manufacturers - The deal surrounds two drugs: Zepbound and Wakovi [1] - Drug makers Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are in discussions with the administration [3] - Eli Lilly is reportedly asking the White House to speed up FDA approval of its weight loss pill [3] Cost Perspective - The typical cost of these drugs can reach well over $1,000 per month [4] - The $149 price represents a significant discount [3][4] - These drugs are typically taken every month, leading to substantial cumulative costs [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hershey's stock has experienced a significant decline, dropping from a high of $196 to around $169, with further declines following disappointing earnings reports and cautious management outlooks [2][4][10]. Financial Performance - Hershey reported net sales of $3.18 billion, a 6.5% year-over-year increase, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $3.12 billion [7]. - Organic sales growth was 6.2%, primarily driven by price increases, exceeding the analyst expectation of 3.6% [8]. - Adjusted gross margin fell to 31.8%, down 85 basis points year-over-year, attributed to higher commodity and tariff costs [8][9]. - Earnings per share were $1.30, down 44% year-over-year but better than the anticipated $1.07 [9]. Management and Strategic Changes - A new CEO, Kirk Tanner, took over in mid-August, bringing experience from Wendy's and PepsiCo [5]. - Management raised the full-year earnings forecast slightly, increasing the low end by 9 cents, which was viewed as disappointing given the earnings beat [10][11]. - The management's cautious tone during the earnings call indicated challenges in the Halloween season and a slower-than-expected start [11][12]. Market Reaction and Analyst Sentiment - The stock has been volatile, with significant sell-offs following earnings reports, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future [14]. - Analysts have begun to upgrade the stock, citing reduced uncertainty and potential moderation in cocoa prices as 2026 approaches [16]. - Despite the current challenges, there is a belief that the stock may be close to a bottom, with potential for future growth under new leadership [19].

Stock Performance & Market Concerns - Hershey's stock plunged from a high of $196 to $169 within three weeks, causing concern for shareholders [1][2] - The stock tumbled from $175 to $171 yesterday, then further to $169 today, indicating a continued downward trend [2] - The packaged food industry is struggling due to the popularity of GOP D-1 weight loss drugs [3] - Sky-high cocoa prices have been a challenge, although they have improved over the last 10 months [4] Company Strategy & Leadership - Hershey hired Kirk Tanner as the new CEO in mid-August, previously from Wendy's and with three decades at PepsiCo [5] - Management cut their full-year earnings forecast due to tariffs and the cost of the hedging program for cocoa price volatility [6] - The stock initially spiked on the news of a complicated quarter and rumors of a takeover from Manderly, but then declined [6][7]

Starbucks - Starbucks reported a mixed earnings report, with shares down 2% in pre-market trading despite achieving its first same-store sales gain in nearly two years, up 1% globally, driven by new protein drinks and improved morning staffing [2][3] - U.S. sales remained flat, while international sales increased by 3%, reflecting a 2% increase in China [2] - Revenue reached $9.57 billion, surpassing expectations of $9.33 billion, but adjusted EPS fell short at 52 cents compared to the expected 55 cents [3] - The CEO described the results as a turning point in Starbucks' multi-year turnaround, but the lack of a full outlook raised concerns among investors, with guidance expected in January [3][4] Eli Lilly - Eli Lilly experienced strong performance driven by its weight loss and diabetes drugs, with adjusted EPS at $7.02, beating expectations of $6.02 [4] - Revenue was reported at $17.6 billion, exceeding the anticipated figure of over $16 billion, and the company raised its full-year guidance to between $63 billion and $63.5 billion, up from a previous forecast of $60 to $62 billion [5][6] - Mjaro revenue more than doubled to over $6.5 billion, while Zetbound revenue almost tripled to over $3.12 billion, indicating strong demand for GLP-1 drugs [5][6] - Eli Lilly is also developing a new weight loss pill, which could potentially be a game changer in the market [7] Estee Lauder - Estee Lauder reported a return to profitability, beating expectations on both revenue and adjusted EPS, with revenue at $3.4 billion and adjusted EPS at 32 cents [8][10] - The company reaffirmed its full-year sales outlook and emphasized that fiscal year 2026 will be pivotal for restoring growth and expanding margins after four years of compression [9][10] - Growth was driven by skincare, which increased by 3%, and fragrance, which saw a significant rise of 14%, while makeup and hair care experienced declines of 1% and 7%, respectively [10][11] - Estee Lauder regained market share in China and the broader Asia-Pacific region, indicating a recovery in those markets [11]

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk is viewed as a speculative buy, with contrasting opinions from analysts regarding its future performance and stock potential [1][4]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Novo Nordisk to underweight due to disappointing growth in key prescriptions in the U.S. [1] - HSBC Holdings has upgraded its rating to buy, citing the potential of the company's pipeline [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Novo Nordisk shares have experienced a nearly 50% decline, attributed to market disappointment over Wegovy's share loss in the weight loss market to Eli Lilly's Zepbound [1]. Group 3: Upcoming Events - The company is leading the race for FDA approval of an oral weight loss pill (oral Wegovy), with a decision expected this year [2]. - Novo Nordisk is conducting a phase 3 trial of its next-generation weight loss drug, CagriSema, against Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, with results expected by mid-January [2]. - Results from a phase 3 trial of semaglutide in Alzheimer's patients are anticipated in late 2025 or early 2026, aiming to slow cognitive decline [3]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - While there are no guarantees regarding the outcomes of these trials, the potential upside from the upcoming events should not be overlooked, especially if oral Wegovy receives FDA approval in 2025 [4].

Financial Performance - Novo Nordisk has lost approximately 2/3 of its value in the past year [1] - The company has slashed its earnings outlook for the second time this year, leading to a 23% plunge in shares in a day [1] Market Dynamics & Competition - Approximately 1 million patients in the US are using cheaper versions of Novo Nordisk's weight loss and diabetes drugs [1] - Novo Nordisk's imitation problem stems from a failure to meet drug demand, allowing copycats to gain market share [2] - Novo Nordisk is losing market share to US rival ILY, whose competing obesity shot, Setbound, beat Wegovy in a head-to-head trial [3] - US authorities ruled that a shortage of ampic and riggoi was over and asked compounding pharmacies to stop making their own versions in February [2] Strategic Response & Leadership - A new CEO, Maria Mike Dustster, has been appointed and has promised to move fast, sharpen execution, and hinted at cost reductions and job cuts [4] - Investors, the Danish government, and economists will be closely monitoring the new CEO's moves, as even a small stumble could hurt Denmark's economic outlook [4] Product Analysis - Clinical data indicates Wegovy can help reduce heart attacks and strokes [3] - A consensus is growing among doctors that Setbound is a more effective medicine [3]

A new study finding the use of weight loss drugs in kids has skyrocketed. Take a look at this. The study found that prescribing GLP1s for weight management in kids aged 8 to 17 increased 65% after the American Academy of Pediatrics issued guidelines recommending them 2 and a half years ago.Obviously, this was a recommendation by trusted pediatricians. But how young is too young for kids to go on these drugs. I mean, I think it's really a case-byase basis.The youngest in my practice is nine. But we look at o ...

Group 1: Target Corporation - Target has faced significant challenges, with its stock down 64%, but it has a history of resilience, having paid and raised dividends for 53 consecutive years [4][5] - Current issues include declining sales due to inflation, high interest rates, tariff uncertainty, and a backlash from reduced diversity initiatives [5][6] - Target is implementing a management shakeup through a new Enterprise Acceleration Office to improve execution and plans to open approximately 300 new stores over the next decade [7][8] - The stock currently has a low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.5 and offers a dividend yield of 4.7%, supported by a 60% dividend payout ratio [8] Group 2: PepsiCo - PepsiCo's stock is down 34%, facing challenges from tighter consumer finances and competition from store brands, as well as the impact of weight loss drugs on its product demand [9][10] - Despite these challenges, PepsiCo remains a resilient company with a diverse portfolio of brands and a manageable dividend payout ratio of 72% [10] - The company is adapting by acquiring healthier food and beverage brands and innovating with products like zero-sugar sodas [11] - PepsiCo's current dividend yield is 4.25%, and its P/E ratio has dropped to 19, below its 10-year average of 26, indicating potential for respectable growth moving forward [12]

Core Insights - Biotech stocks present significant growth opportunities due to ongoing research and potential breakthroughs in treatments [1] - Wall Street identifies two biotech candidates with projected gains exceeding 80% and 200% in the next 12 months [2] Company Summaries Viking Therapeutics - Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) experienced a surge in stock price following positive phase 2 trial results for its weight loss drug VK2735, but has since returned to pre-announcement levels [4] - The company is advancing VK2735 in both injectable and pill forms, with high demand for weight loss drugs, indicating potential for future growth [5] - Viking is set to begin phase 3 trials for the injectable version in Q2 and expects phase 2 data for the pill version in the second half of the year, with the weight loss drug market projected to reach $100 billion [6] - Wall Street forecasts a 240% increase in Viking's stock price, contingent on trial outcomes [7] CRISPR Therapeutics - CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) saw its stock rise leading up to the approval of its first product, Casgevy, but has since declined as investors locked in gains [8] - The company is positioned for potential growth as Casgevy requires a longer rollout process, with expectations for significant increases in new patient initiations this year [10] - Positive phase 1 data for a gene-editing candidate targeting high cholesterol has been reported, with further updates expected on candidates for lipoprotein(a), oncology, and autoimmune diseases [11][12] - Wall Street anticipates an 84% gain for CRISPR Therapeutics, making it a potential buying opportunity for growth investors [12]

Industry Overview - The weight loss drug market is projected to grow from an estimated $15 billion last year to as much as $150 billion by 2035, indicating a tenfold increase over the next decade [1][2] - Current medications primarily consist of GLP-1 agonists, which suppress appetite by slowing digestion [2] Market Leaders - Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominate the weight loss drug market, holding an estimated 97% market share, with Novo Nordisk at 62% and Eli Lilly at 35% of the GLP-1 market [2][4] - Both companies are actively developing next-generation products to maintain their market positions [8] Drug Development Challenges - Drug development is a rigorous process, and many candidates may fail to reach the market, as evidenced by Pfizer's abandonment of its oral weight loss drug due to safety concerns [5] - Newly approved drugs must compete not only on price but also on efficacy, side effects, and prescriber comfort [6] Upcoming Products - Novo Nordisk is seeking approval for an oral version of Wegovy, with hopes for a decision by the end of the year, and is also advancing CagriSema through phase 3 trials [9] - Eli Lilly's orforglipron has shown promising results in phase 3 studies and could be the first small-molecule weight loss drug on the market, while its injectable therapy retatrutide is also in phase 3 trials [10] Competitive Landscape - Boehringer Ingelheim's survodutide is noted as a potential near-term competitor, with an expected arrival in 2027 [11] - Other competitors, such as Amgen's MariTide, are still in earlier stages of development, with phase 3 studies beginning in March and a potential market entry in 2028 [11] Investment Considerations - Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are well-positioned to capture significant growth in the weight loss market, with Eli Lilly currently favored by Wall Street, reflected in its higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 62 compared to Novo Nordisk's 22 [12] - The expected long-term earnings growth rates are 14% for Novo Nordisk and 32% for Eli Lilly, with PEG ratios of 1.5 and 1.9 respectively, indicating reasonable pricing for their growth prospects [13]