With earnings season kicking off, will the results be enough to give investors some clarity as they navigate the market with very limited economic data. With us now, Region's Wealth Management CIO Alan Mcnite and Far Miller and Washington President and CEO Michael Farre, also a CNBC contributor. Gentlemen, it's great to have you on.Michael, I'm going to start with you on this because I was looking at your notes and uh you talk about flashing yellow lights and you say you're very cautiously bullish. What doe ...

Market Outlook & Strategy - Piper Sandler suggests investors should "trade the cycle, not the headlines," implying a focus on underlying economic trends rather than short-term news events [1] - The firm believes the fundamentals of the economy remain a tailwind for equities [3] - Piper Sandler is broadly constructive on the market, citing earnings and the Federal Reserve's easing policies [6] - The firm anticipates a better, broader economy in 2026, driven by lower interest rates, improved housing data, and increased manufacturing activity [8] Trade Tensions & Government Shutdown - The market's reaction to tariff headlines has diminished, and the firm doesn't believe President Trump will disrupt the bull market [5] - Piper Sandler doesn't foresee the government shutdown significantly impacting corporate earnings or lasting long enough to become a major market concern [16][17] AI Theme - Piper Sandler views the AI trend as more of a boom than a bubble, noting that major companies are generating substantial earnings [13][14] - The firm points out that multiple expansion is not the primary driver of returns in the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, as earnings are [14] Investment Opportunities - Piper Sandler highlights that rising unemployment can be a bullish catalyst for equities, contrary to popular belief [19] - The firm recommends early cyclical sectors, financials (banks), homebuilders, and select consumer discretionary areas [20] - Piper Sandler anticipates a broadening of the market into 2026, with potential for laggards to see relative performance [21]

Government Shutdown Impact on Data & Fed Policy - The government shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process due to the lack of hard data, including government jobs data and inflation data [1] - The Fed faces a dilemma: whether to rely on existing labor market data with alternative datasets or pause and wait for the release of delayed data [3] - Data delays have ripple effects, potentially impacting the quality of CPI data for October, November, and December [4] - The shutdown leads to murkier data, with a higher percentage of CPI goods being estimated by staff [4] Economic Impact - The shutdown is estimated to drag quarterly GDP by approximately 10 basis points per week [6] - Federal workers are losing approximately $400 million per day in compensation, impacting consumer spending [6] Market Reaction - Markets are likely to react negatively if the Fed pauses due to the government shutdown, as rate cuts have already been priced in [9] - Alternative data sets do not fully compensate for the lack of government data, particularly in gauging the magnitude of economic changes [10][11] - The range of estimates for the September payroll report varies widely, from as high as 60,000 to as low as negative 30,000 [11] Investment Strategy - The government shutdown has not caused dramatic shifts in investment strategies, as underlying earnings remain strong [14] - Q3 earnings growth estimates have ticked up from 8% to 88%, indicating underlying strength in the markets [16]

In the meantime, let's get back to the broader markets and the S&P and the NASDAQ taking a breather from these record highs. Joining at us with his outlook today, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist Scott Ren. Scott, it's good to see you.Um, I am curious though, shortterm, three rejections of 6750 uh since Friday. What's it going to take to push past some of these levels. Well, you know, Carl, at some point we are going to get a few rejections of these higher levels and and I I ...

For more on the AI trade in the markets overall, let's bring in Osan Kan. He is the newish chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo and he is out with his first ever earnings preview note in that role and is kind enough to come on fast money. Are you sure this is where you should on the new rule.So I guess the debate this bubble or not whatever is happening your models you run through all these thousands of models all the time your models show that earnings may actually be better than many think why yeah so w ...

For more on the AI trade in the markets overall, let's bring in Osan Quan. He is the newish chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo and he is out with his first ever earnings preview note in that role and is kind enough to come on fast money. Are you sure this is where you want to congratulations on the new rule.So I guess the debate this bubble or not whatever is happening your models you run through all these thousands of models all the time your models show that earnings may actually be better than many t ...

Dan Greenhouse. He's here with us at Post 9. Good to see you.Um, the market obviously doesn't care much yet. >> Neither do I. >> About what's happening in DC.How do you see things progressing from there. >> I don't think this matter. We was on the other day with Carl and I said, I refuse to play this game.Uh, we've done it. You've been around as long as I have. We've been playing this for 10 years now, 15 years now.And, uh, obviously shutdowns haven't happened every time that the shutdown fight has arisen. ...

Market Trends & Sentiment - Despite anxieties around government shutdowns and trade deals, Nvidia and Micron are at record highs, indicating continued allocation to the AI trade [1] - Tech stocks, particularly big tech in the US, remain attractive to investors seeking solid trades [3] - Optimism surrounding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts is supporting the tech sector [3] - There's a pull from the US into tech stocks in Europe, showing encouraging signs for the European tech sector [4][5] Policy & Geopolitics - US administration policy is a central part of how markets are responding and affecting sentiment [7] - The market's response to policy announcements is more relaxed compared to the beginning of the previous administration [8][9] - The US government may proactively seek stakes in sectors and companies, potentially to enhance competitiveness against countries like China [10] - Taiwan rejects a US demand to bring 50% of semiconductor manufacturing into the United States, impacting trade negotiations and the technology sector [6] Valuation & Risk - High valuations are noted, but it's crucial to focus on earnings season and forward guidance [11][12] - The market is considered overstretched in some areas, but a big collapse is not necessarily expected; consolidation is possible [13] - Positive earnings reports in the coming months and further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could catalyze another leg higher [13]

Michael Aron is chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management. Mike, always appreciate having you on. You know, stocks may be due for whatever, but it doesn't mean they're going to do that, does it.It doesn't, Brian. The foundation for this bull market remains solid. So, trades coming into clearer focus.It's not perfect, but we've avoided the worst outcome. Now, we're throwing a little gasoline on the fire with both fiscal policy and monetary policy. Oh, and by the way, earnings are grow ...

Let's ask Truis wealth CIO Keith Lerner and Empower chief investment strategist Marta Norton who joins us here at Post9. Good to see both of you. Thanks for coming in.Yes, my pleasure. What do you make of I guess tech lagging, a little more volatility, this comment from the Fed chair. You don't get that every day about valuations in equities, right.And you know, I think it really is a sign of how extreme valuations are. We all know that valuations aren't a timing indicator. markets can grind on for quite so ...