So, with today's inflation report, can we add rate cuts to the list of bullish market indicators and will that keep this rally going. Well, joining us now is Renaissance Macro Research head of US economics Neil Duta and Evans May wealth managing partner Brooke May. Great to have you both both here.And Brooke, I'm going to kick this conversation off with you because so far earning season has been incredibly strong when you look at these beat rates much much higher than we've seen uh previously and and histor ...

Data Center Lending & Investment - Bank of England is probing data center lending due to concerns about potential air bubbles [1] - Initially, data center investments were primarily funded by well-capitalized hyperscalers using their own resources [2] - There's an anticipated $5 trillion spending up to 2034 for data centers and compute infrastructure to fuel the viewpoint [5] - Increased debt issuance is being observed, suggesting a broader range of financing is needed to meet investment targets [3] Market Valuations & Credit - Extreme valuations are present, but there's a distinction between extreme valuations and an air bubble [3] - Active credit managers have an opportunity to vet and potentially gain added yield in the data center space [6] - Caution is advised when adding debt, with attention to tight credit spreads as a potential valuation risk [6] Trade Policy & Earnings - Despite significant shifts in trade policy, no immediate discernible impact on earnings or inflation has been observed [8][9] - The long-term implications of globalization on earnings have been positive for the US and globally, suggesting a potential headwind as globalization rolls back [10] - Trade talks with Canada are ongoing with lingering volatility within the market [12] Market Valuations & Opportunities - US market valuations are generally high across sectors, with the exception of healthcare [13][15] - Valuations are in the ninth and tenth deciles relative to their own history, impacting prospective three-year returns [14] - Healthcare is identified as a more attractively priced area with potential benefits [16]

Market Overview & CPI Analysis - CPI 数据中关税的影响并不明显，整体同比 CPI 仍高于 3% 的目标值[1][2] - 市场普遍预计美联储将在 10 月降息，12 月可能再次降息[3] - 普遍认为市场情绪仍然积极，科技和创新领域仍是投资重点[5] Sector Focus & AI Impact - 策略上，通过银行、保险和公用事业等周期性行业来对冲科技投资，以受益于预期中的宽松政策[6] - AI 的生产力、效率和收入增长预计将在企业采用率达到 50% 以上时才会显现，目前采用率约为 5% 到 10%[6] - 盈利方面，目前非科技行业的盈利表现更为积极，需考虑科技基础设施支出的影响[8] Private Credit & Risk Assessment - 目前看到的私募信贷问题更多与欺诈有关，而非经济状况[9][11] - 预计某些领域的部分信贷会出现违约，但不太可能像金融危机那样大规模蔓延[11] - 经济前景仍然乐观，预计软着陆，加上货币政策宽松，违约风险预计不会大规模扩散[14]

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All right, we got to start off with this. Uh, the president threatening to completely terminate negotiations with Canada in a social media post. We'll have to see what he says today. More than likely, he'll we'll get more commentary from him today.Is that a big deal for the markets. Again, Canada is one of our top trade partners. >> Well, it's not a positive for sure, but this is the negotiations that the Trump administration has been ongoing for a while now.So, I suspect that things will calm down eventual ...

Core Insights - Investors are currently facing challenges due to the lack of government economic reports, which has left them without essential data for informed decision-making [1] Group 1 - The absence of government economic reports has created a situation where investors are "flying blind," indicating a significant gap in available information [1]

Market Sentiment & Trade - Market views any positive developments in China trade favorably [1] - Market had shifted focus away from trade until recent trade tensions resurfaced, impacting AI-related sectors due to rare earth material concerns [2] - Market sentiment is currently focused on a strong economy, positive earnings, and potential rate cuts [3] - China trade headline risk is present, but not viewed as material risk based on CH's calm reaction [6][7] Momentum & Rotation - Market experienced a momentum unwind, potentially nearing its end, with the first negative month in seven and declines in MTUM names [4][9] - Despite the momentum unwind, the overall market remains up, indicating a rotational move rather than outright distribution [10] - Momentum shakeout hasn't significantly impacted broader market sectors; some sectors like healthcare and discretionary are improving [11][12] - Debate exists whether the momentum unwind is over or still in progress, with Morgan Stanley suggesting it's only halfway through [9] Sector Performance & Economic Indicators - Defensive sectors, like healthcare, are outperforming in October, potentially due to profit-taking and rotation into underperforming assets [5] - Banks are showing slight weakness, but overall, leaning into strength is still favored [8] - High yield CDX remains relatively calm despite bankruptcies, indicating no significant deterioration in credit markets or consumer stocks; consumer stocks may be reaccelerating [7] - Utilities' performance is tied to power and AI, diminishing its reliability as a defensive sector indicator [14] Market Breadth & Global Markets - Market breadth remains relatively strong, with a significant percentage of S&P 500 companies above their 200-day moving average [15] - Global markets, including China, Japan, and Europe, are reaching new highs, indicating no widespread negative impact from the momentum unwind [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a third quarter conversion revenue of $351 million, a decline of approximately $11 million or 3% compared to the prior year period [12] - Reported operating income for the third quarter was $49 million, an increase of approximately $36 million from $13 million in the prior year quarter [15] - Adjusted net income for the third quarter was $31 million or $1.86 per diluted share, compared to adjusted net income of $5 million or $0.31 per diluted share in the prior year period [17] - Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $81 million, up approximately $35 million from the prior year period [18] - The net debt leverage ratio improved to 3.6x from 4.3x at the end of 2024 [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerospace and high strength conversion revenue totaled $100 million, down $28 million or approximately 22% due to a 30% decline in shipments [12][13] - Packaging conversion revenue totaled $138 million, up $9 million or approximately 7% year over year [13] - General engineering conversion revenue for the third quarter was $81 million, up $5 million or 6% year over year [14] - Automotive conversion revenue of $32 million increased 10% year over year despite a 5% decrease in shipments [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand in aerospace is trending positively, with expectations for improved conditions as destocking eases [10][21] - Packaging supply remains tight with strong demand expected to continue [10] - General engineering continues to outperform the traditional 2% CAGR, reflecting solid demand [11] - Automotive production forecasts have varied, but the company expects stability moving forward [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on managing costs, restoring operating efficiencies, and regaining best-in-class operating metrics [11] - Major investments in aerospace and packaging are central to the company's strategy, with a shift towards higher-margin coated products [9][22] - The company anticipates a full ramp-up of the new coating line to support 2026 shipments [9][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of aerospace demand and the normalization of supply chains [20][21] - The company expects full year aerospace shipments and conversion revenue to be down approximately 10% year over year due to destocking [21] - For packaging, conversion revenue is expected to be up 12% to 15% year over year, with shipments declining about 3% [22] - General engineering is expected to see shipments and conversion revenue up approximately 5% to 10% year over year [24] Other Important Information - The company generated cash flow from operations of $59 million during the third quarter, with capital expenditures totaling $25 million [19] - The company remains committed to funding its quarterly dividend of $0.77 per share [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of planned maintenance on aerospace shipments - Management confirmed that the planned maintenance significantly impacted shipments, but they expect a recovery close to first half levels in Q4 [28][30] Question: Status of packaging contract negotiations - Management indicated progress in contract negotiations, expecting a 300 to 400 basis points increase in EBITDA margins [33][34] Question: Impact of tariffs on pricing and market share - Management stated that tariffs have had a neutral to slightly positive impact, with better demand for domestic products [44][45] Question: Demand for packaging products amid cost inflation - Management noted strong demand for aluminum substrate products, particularly in food-related markets, which have outpaced beverage demand [48][49] Question: Capacity to fill in for competitors' outages - Management indicated that they are currently at full capacity and not positioned to assist significantly in the market for bare products [52] Question: Ramp-up of new facilities in 2026 - Management expects a gradual ramp-up in the first half of 2026, with stronger demand anticipated in the second half [56]

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Core Insights - IBM reported $16.33 billion in revenue for Q3 2025, a year-over-year increase of 9.1%, with EPS of $2.65 compared to $2.30 a year ago, exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates for both revenue and EPS [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Software revenue was $7.21 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $7.27 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.5% [4] - Consulting revenue reached $5.32 billion, surpassing the average estimate of $5.24 billion, with a year-over-year change of 3.3% [4] - Financing revenue was reported at $200 million, exceeding the average estimate of $171.23 million [4] - Infrastructure revenue was $3.56 billion, above the estimated $3.42 billion, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 17% [4] - Other revenue was $38 million, compared to an average estimate of -$6.47 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of 44.1% [4] - Intelligent Operations revenue was $2.4 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $2.34 billion [4] - Automation revenue was $1.9 billion, above the average estimate of $1.78 billion [4] - Strategy and Technology revenue was $2.9 billion, slightly above the estimated $2.87 billion [4] - Hybrid Cloud revenue was $1.9 billion, below the average estimate of $1.99 billion [4] - Infrastructure Support revenue was $1.3 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $1.27 billion, with no change year-over-year [4] - Data revenue was $1.5 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $1.47 billion [4] - Transaction Processing revenue was $1.9 billion, below the average estimate of $2.05 billion, with no change year-over-year [4] Stock Performance - IBM shares returned +3.6% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.1% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]