Core Viewpoint - The first rate cut of 2025 has been implemented, raising concerns about the potential for additional cuts, which contributes to the uncertainty faced by fixed income investors [1] Group 1 - The initial rate cut marks a significant shift in monetary policy, indicating a response to prevailing economic conditions [1] - Fixed income investors are currently navigating a landscape filled with market uncertainties, exacerbated by the prospect of further rate cuts [1]

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets opened lower, with the Russell 2000 down by 0.77%, Dow down by 0.39%, S&P 500 down by 0.13%, and Nasdaq slightly up by 0.01% [1] - All four major market indexes are down, with the Russell 2000 being the least affected at -0.15% and the Dow lagging at -0.44% [4] Commodity Prices - Gold reached a new record, trading above $3,750 per ounce [2] - Crude oil prices declined by 1.07%, settling at $62.01 [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.34 basis points to 4.125% [2] Analyst Updates - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target for the S&P 500 to 7,200, while RBC Capital set a new target of 7,100 [2] - Piper Sandler upgraded Tesla's price target from $400 to $500, reflecting the company's expansion into humanoid robotics [2] Corporate Actions - Pfizer announced plans to acquire weight loss drug company Metsera for $7.3 billion [2] - There are 12 earnings reports expected today, including those from Firefly Aerospace and PACS Group, although overall earnings activity is limited [7] Economic Indicators - The Chicago Fed National Activity Index recorded its highest level in five months at -0.12, indicating modest economic recovery in August [3] - U.S. businesses are advising foreign-born workers to remain in the country amid potential changes to the H-1B visa program, which may include a new $100,000 fee [3] Market Sentiment - The current week marks the last full trading week of the quarter, with bullish sentiment prevailing as stocks have reached new heights due to the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [5]

Gm anons.Any post-rate slash plan this week? ...

Economic and Market Conditions - The U.S. stock markets have reached all-time highs, leading to increased investor anxiety due to the higher stakes involved [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts could benefit the economy by steepening the yield curve, which may encourage bank lending [1][3] - Despite the potential benefits of rate cuts, the U.S. economy does not urgently require them, as lending has already accelerated from 2.8% to 4.5% year-over-year [3] Manufacturing Reshoring - The prospect of reshoring manufacturing in the U.S. does not guarantee positive outcomes for U.S. industrial stocks, as market focus remains on earnings rather than production locations [4] - Reshoring involves significant upfront and ongoing costs, including compliance with stringent environmental regulations, which could negatively impact profit margins [4][5] - The reshoring process is lengthy and complex, often taking years due to investment, planning, and regulatory hurdles, making it speculative to base current investments on this trend [5] Employment Data Reliability - The reliability of jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is diminishing due to declining response rates from firms, leading to potential revisions in the data [7][9] - Monthly jobs data is often too volatile for sound investment decisions, as it typically reflects past conditions rather than current market realities [10] Social Security Funding Concerns - The proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)" could reduce Social Security funding by an estimated $169 billion over the next decade, potentially shifting the program's insolvency date from Q3 2034 to Q1 2034 [11][14] - Despite concerns about insolvency, it is important to note that annual revenues would still cover approximately 70% to 80% of benefits through 2100 [12] - The OBBBA tax cuts represent only 4% of Social Security's revenues, with the majority coming from payroll taxes, which remain unaffected by the bill [14]

Core Viewpoint - The State Bank of India (SBI) report suggests that a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in September is the most favorable option due to controlled inflation and a positive outlook for further moderation [1][8] Inflation Outlook - Inflation is expected to remain benign, tracking below 2 percent in September and October without any Goods and Services Tax (GST) cut [2][8] - CPI numbers for FY27 are estimated to be around 4 percent or less, with potential for October CPI to fall to approximately 1.1 percent, the lowest since 2004 [5][8] Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting - The MPC is scheduled to meet on September 29 and 30, with a policy announcement expected on October 1, 2025 [5][8] Rate Cut Rationale - The report warns against the risk of repeating a Type 2 error by maintaining a neutral stance despite favorable conditions, emphasizing the need for calibrated communication from the central bank [1][5][8] - Post-June, the threshold for rate cuts has increased, necessitating careful messaging from the RBI [1][8] CPI Inflation Projections - SBI anticipates that CPI inflation may decline further by 65-75 bps due to expected GST rationalization [6][8] - Historical data from 2019 indicates that reducing GST rates for common goods led to a 35 bps decline in overall inflation within a few months [6][8] - With the new CPI series, further moderation of 20-30 bps in inflation is expected, keeping CPI inflation at the lower end of the target band of 4 percent plus-minus 2 percent for FY26 and FY27 [7][8]

Global bond markets are fully rejecting the Fed’s move. A rate cut on paper means nothing if yields keep climbing. The irony is your mortgage still gets more expensive https://t.co/CRWbx0xxrW ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points on September 17, marking the first rate cut in 2025, with an expectation of an additional 50-basis-point cut this year [1] - The rate cut occurred despite inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation projection for 2025 maintained at 3.1% and the 2026 forecast raised from 2.4% to 2.6% [2] - The Fed raised its growth forecast, expecting the U.S. economy to expand by 1.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, both 20 basis points higher than previous forecasts [4] Group 2: Impact on Industries - Rate cuts are generally positive for interest-sensitive sectors such as automotive and housing, as lower interest rates can boost demand; however, the housing market is currently facing challenges [6] - Consumer discretionary companies, retailers, and e-commerce firms like Amazon (AMZN) are expected to benefit from rate cuts, as they can stimulate consumer spending [7] - Companies with significant debt burdens will see reduced interest expenses, enhancing profitability, while buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) companies like Affirm (AFRM) will also benefit from lower borrowing costs [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has implemented its first quarter-point rate cut in a significant period, indicating that more cuts may follow, which could encourage investors to consider new stock purchases as the market transitions from summer to autumn [1] Group 1 - The recent rate cut by the Fed marks a pivotal moment for investors who have been hesitant to make new investments [1] - The anticipated continuation of rate cuts may create a favorable environment for stock market performance [1] - The transition from a "sizzling summer" to a "warm autumn" suggests a positive outlook for stocks in the near term [1]

the most comical thing would be for us to make new ATHs on majors off the back of the rate cut newsjust enough for vocal bears to pivot on their 'cycle top' callsthen we get aggressively nuked, making them pivot to calling cycle top againonly for the mother of all rallies across majors and altcoins/memecoins to commence and send us to insanely crazy new highs across the boardUnipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒 (@theunipcs):everyone was calling cycle top just a week agonow they're starting to get euphoric againdo not ...

Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, The Morning Brief. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, Intel shares soaring on a $5 billion investment from Nvidia. The two companies will co-develop chips for PCs and data centers, and the investment will make Nvidia one of Intel's largest shareholders. Nvidia CEO Jensen Jong calling this collaboration historic and a fusion of two worldclass platforms.It comes as Intel has fallen far behind in the global chip race. It's g ...