Core PCE Price Index - The U.S. Core PCE Price Index for August 2025 is reported at 2.9% year-over-year, aligning with market forecasts [1] - The broader PCE index, which includes food and energy, increased by 2.7% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, indicating that price pressures are easing but not completely eliminated [1] Bitcoin Market Reaction - Bitcoin has experienced a nearly 4% decline, influenced by stronger U.S. jobs data and robust GDP growth, leading to over $1.5 billion in liquidations [2] - Bearish predictions suggest a potential deeper correction for Bitcoin, with forecasts indicating a drop towards $104K, sub-$100K levels, and possibly retesting $93K, following the $124K all-time high in August [2][3] Economic Outlook and Investor Sentiment - Following a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, there is optimism that Bitcoin could benefit from the historically bullish seasonality in Q4 [3] - The cooling inflation may restore investor confidence and potentially pave the way for new highs, although macro and geopolitical tensions could pose risks [3] Market Impact of PCE Data - Bull Theory expresses optimism that Bitcoin and the crypto market may be poised for a rebound, viewing the PCE data as confirmation of positive trends for risk assets [4] - Recent tariff measures have had minimal impact on supply-side inflation, providing relief for markets that anticipated worse outcomes [4] Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - Senior economist Jennifer Lee notes that consumer spending remains strong across major categories, reflecting the resilience of the U.S. economy [5] - This resilience supports the argument for a softer policy stance, indicating that growth can sustain even as inflation cools [5] Rate Cut Expectations - Market odds for another rate cut in October have increased from 75.5% to nearly 81%, signaling support for risk-on assets [6] - Analysts at London Crypto Club predict that the equities market will rise into late November, while Bitcoin and crypto consolidate, potentially reaching new record highs afterward [6]

Market Overview - The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE, held steady at 2.9% in August, matching estimates but remaining above the Fed's target of 2% [1][2] - Consumer spending and income showed resilience, contributing to stock market gains, with the Dow up approximately 380 points [1][2] - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also saw increases, with the S&P 500 up 1% and NASDAQ up 1% [1] Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Inflation remains sticky, with concerns that the Fed may not be able to implement all planned interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation [2][3] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 55.1% in September, down from 58.2% in August, indicating a decline in consumer confidence [5][6] - High-income consumers continue to drive spending, while lower-income consumers express concerns about the economy and inflation [6] Housing Market - New home sales surged over 20%, reaching the fastest pace since 2022, attributed to easing mortgage rates [3] - Existing home sales remained flat, indicating a stabilization in the housing market despite overall sluggish demand [3] - Builders are focusing on incentives to drive sales amid affordability challenges [3] Technology Sector - Concerns persist regarding the sustainability of AI investments, with major tech companies like Apple and Nvidia trading lower, while others like Alphabet and Amazon saw gains [1][2] - The competitive landscape for data storage technology is evolving, with Pure Storage emphasizing its unique offerings for AI workloads [4] - Analysts remain bullish on Microsoft, raising its price target due to confidence in its growth drivers and relationship with OpenAI [5] Tariffs and Economic Impact - New tariffs announced by President Trump are expected to impact various sectors, particularly pharmaceuticals, but the overall market response has been muted [2][3] - The potential government shutdown poses risks to economic data releases, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [2][3] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a well-designed financial plan amid uncertainty, focusing on long-term goals rather than reacting to short-term market fluctuations [7] - Emphasis on conservative investment strategies and understanding risks while seeking opportunities in fixed income and tech sectors [7]

RT Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio)🚨 The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator just dropped and it’s bullish for the crypto market.🇺🇸 US PCE inflation came in at:- 2.7% YoY (expected: 2.7%)- Core PCE: 2.9% (expected: 2.9%)- MoM: 0.2% (expected: 0.2%)📌 In line with expectations.This confirms a few important things:1. Inflation is not rising aggressively.The numbers are stable, not accelerating which is a good sign for the Fed and for markets.2. Tariffs haven’t had any major impact.Despite being in place for months n ...

Market Outlook - Market anticipates a rate cut in October, which is bullish for crypto due to increased liquidity and risk-on flows [2] Economic Indicators - Inflation is stable [3] - Tariffs are not causing an inflation shock [3] - Consumer spending is under control [3]

Group 1 - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions has established a factory to produce 24 XQ-58A Valkyrie combat drones, aiming to secure contracts with the U.S. Marine Corps and Airbus [1] - The U.S. has reclassified drones to fighter jet status, prompting Cathie Wood's ARK Invest to adjust their defense stock holdings [2] - The defense and aerospace sector is experiencing a surge, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Kratos and Rocket Lab [4] Group 2 - Major indexes are reaching new highs, indicating a potential bullish phase in the market rally, with Tesla and Kratos among the stocks showing buy signals [4] - Increased defense spending targets by NATO and heightened military activities in the Middle East are contributing to the rise in defense stocks [4] - The market is witnessing a focus on drone technology, with expectations for significant advancements and investments in hypersonic capabilities [4]

BREAKING: Inflation Data Cements Rate Cut Expectations Tesla (TSLA) has rallied nearly 30% this month ahead of global third-quarter vehicle deliveries next month, with analysts handing the EV giant a slew of price-target hikes in recent weeks. On Friday, a Tesla stock super bull said he sees 40% upside based almost entirely on the company's robotaxi rollout. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a long-time Tesla bull, on… Related news PCE Inflation Data In Line, Bolsters Fed Rate Cut Outlook (Live Coverage) ...

Economic Data Impact - A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report has led to a significant rise in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), reaching a three-week high, while Bitcoin has fallen below $111,000 [1] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, marking a two-month low, and Q2 GDP growth was revised upward to 3.8% from 3.3% [1] Federal Reserve Rate Cut Odds - Fresh economic data has reduced the likelihood of rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the odds of an October rate cut decreasing from 92% to 85.5% [2] - Fed Governor Miran advocated for faster easing, but Chairman Powell urged caution in response to the economic data [2] Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion, with ETF inflows slowing sharply around the FOMC meeting, leading to a fragile balance in market flows [2] - The cost basis for short-term holders is now a key support level at $111,000, which must hold to prevent further declines [3] - Bitcoin has slipped below the 0.95 Cost Basis Quantile, indicating potential profit-taking zones, with risks of drifting toward lower support levels around $105,000 to $90,000 [3] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing conflicts in Gaza, has contributed to market weakness and a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold [4] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts remain confident that the Bitcoin bull market is not over, despite current struggles below $112,000 [5] - The 21-week EMA is climbing, and Bitcoin needs to stay above this level to reclaim bullish territory and attempt new highs [5] - An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming, indicating potential for a higher low in Bitcoin's trading range [6]

Core Insights - The discussion revolves around investment regrets, particularly focusing on stocks that were sold prematurely without solid reasoning, highlighting the importance of having a structured investment strategy [1][5][8]. Group 1: Investment Regrets - Lou Whiteman expresses regret over selling Axos Financial and Loews, which have significantly appreciated in value since he sold them, emphasizing the danger of selling based on whims rather than a solid investment thesis [1][5]. - Jason Hall shares his regret about selling Microsoft just before its substantial growth, attributing the decision to impatience rather than business concerns [5][8]. - Rick Munarriz recounts his experience with Netflix, where he sold 99% of his shares, leading to significant regret as the stock appreciated dramatically [6][7]. Group 2: Current Stock Recommendations - Jason Hall suggests Starbucks as a potential buy, citing improvements in operational management and a low bar for upcoming performance expectations, despite a history of negative comparable sales [10][11]. - Lou Whiteman highlights Montrose Environmental as a stock to watch, noting its role in environmental services and potential benefits from lower borrowing costs in a rate-cut environment [12][13]. - Rick Munarriz recommends Zillow Group, arguing that a decrease in financing rates could revitalize the residential real estate market, benefiting Zillow's business model and driving revenue growth [15][16].

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech is a significant market catalyst following the Fed's recent rate cut, with global markets seeking clarity on future monetary policy [1][2] - The current Fed policy rate is set at 4.00%–4.25% after a 25 basis points cut, leading to divided investor sentiment regarding future rate adjustments [2][3] Market Reactions - Institutional investors are showing caution in the crypto markets, with significant outflows from Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, indicating a potential hedging strategy against a hawkish tone from Powell [4] - Bitcoin's price remains above $113,000, but the market is fragile, with traders closely monitoring key support and resistance levels in response to Powell's remarks [5] Macro Context - The U.S. Dollar Index is stable near 97.40, and 10-year Treasury yields are around 4.15%, reflecting investor caution ahead of Powell's speech, which typically pressures risk assets like Bitcoin [6] - Gold prices are reaching new highs as capital shifts away from crypto, suggesting that traditional safe havens are currently favored in the inflation hedge narrative [7]

Core Viewpoint - The first rate cut of 2025 has been implemented, raising concerns about the potential for additional cuts, which contributes to the uncertainty faced by fixed income investors [1] Group 1 - The initial rate cut marks a significant shift in monetary policy, indicating a response to prevailing economic conditions [1] - Fixed income investors are currently navigating a landscape filled with market uncertainties, exacerbated by the prospect of further rate cuts [1]