广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数跌4.16%，创业板指跌3.34%，大盘价值跌0.91%，大盘成长跌2.89%，上证50跌2.38%，国证2000代表的小盘跌 1.89%，石油石化、建筑材料市场表现靠前，计算机表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域，比如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016 年以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/03/21指标3.61%，两倍标准差边界为4.72%。 估值水平，截至2025/03/21，中证全指PETTM分位数54%，上证50与沪深300分别为58%、47%，创业板指接近15%，中证500与中证1000分别为35%、 42%，创业板指风格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows resilience with the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the green amid a backdrop of declines in the Hong Kong market, indicating strong market performance and investor confidence [1]. Market Performance - The trading volume in both markets has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reflecting sustained market enthusiasm [2]. - The financing balance in the A-share market has surged to over 1.9 trillion yuan, marking the highest level since July 2015, indicating active leverage funds entering the market [3][5]. Sector Analysis - The current market trend shows a rotation in sectors, with consumer stocks leading while technology sectors experience a pullback. Analysts suggest that growth and manufacturing sectors will remain dominant [2][5]. - Financing funds have shown a preference for technology sectors, with significant net purchases in electronics, computers, machinery, communications, and power equipment, each exceeding 10 billion yuan since February [6]. Indicators of Bull Market - The increase in financing balance is a double-edged sword; while it may signal a developing bull market, it also raises concerns about potential market risks due to increased leverage [4]. - Key indicators to assess the bull market include ongoing improvements in economic fundamentals, liquidity conditions, and overall market sentiment [7][10][11]. Future Market Outlook - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to influence market dynamics, with historical trends indicating potential market adjustments during this period [12]. - Analysts predict that technology and consumer sectors will be the main lines of investment, supported by favorable policies and high growth potential [14][16]. Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on sector rotation and risk management, with a core-satellite approach emphasizing technology and consumer sectors, supplemented by cyclical and high-dividend assets [19].