资料来源: Wind,米筐,国泰君安期货研究 基差方向周度预测 本周预测结论 I C IH I M IF 下周预测方向 注: 代表预测基差下周走强 代表预测基差下周走弱。 本周回顾 国庆节前央行三季度例会召开,未给出增量放松措施指引,加力部分在于支持小微企业、稳定外 贸两个新增方向,政策面在稳中有进的基本面之下凸显稳健、审慎。8月规模以上工业企业利润同比 大增20.4%,装备制造业利润拉动作用最强,不同规模企业利润均有改善,私营企业利润增长明显加 快。另外9月政治局会议召开,研究制定"十五五"规划重大问题,并决定10月20日至23日召开二十 届四中全会,当前逐步进入会议窗口期,可能引起市场对进一步政策的预期。国庆假期期间,日元贬 值、美元指数上升推动黄金避险资产创历史新高,国内出行、消费温和修复,主题和题材上消息偏 多,A股宽基指数对海外事件反应平淡,节后上证指数突破3900点、创10年新高,但监管有意防范短 期非理性的上涨,大涨后的回调亦较为迅猛,特别是半导体板块因前期涨幅过大,触发连续大幅调 整,对指数形成拖累。杠杆资金依然较为活跃,节后首日大幅回流,单日净流入额创"924"以来新 高,全A成交节后回升至 ...

9月30日沪指上涨0.52%，市场两融余额为23941.58亿元，较前一交易日减少345.97亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至9月30日，沪市两融余额12193.93亿元，较前一交易日减少151.06亿 元；深市两融余额11673.46亿元，较前一交易日减少192.86亿元；北交所两融余额74.18亿元，较前一交 易日减少2.06亿元；深沪北两融余额合计23941.58亿元，较前一交易日减少345.97亿元。 分行业看，申万所属行业中，融资余额全线减少。融资余额减少金额最多的行业是非银金融、通信、电 力设备，当日融资余额减少37.41亿元、36.99亿元、33.94亿元。 具体到个股来看，融资余额出现增长的股票有884只，占比23.74%，其中，166股融资余额增幅超过5% 。融资余额增幅最大的是佛燃能源，该股最新融资余额2.57亿元，较前一交易日增幅达106.79%；股价 表现上，该股当日上涨4.59%，表现强于沪指；融资余额增幅较多的还有无锡鼎邦、迅安科技，融资余 额增幅分别为60.10%、58.60%。 融资余额增幅前20只个股中，从市场表现来看，平均上涨3.95%，涨幅居前的有松原安全、品茗科技 ...

立讯精密本周获融资净买入居首，净买入额为26.04亿元，周涨幅达15.95%。宁德时代、新易盛、海光 信息获净买入额居前；胜宏科技、江淮汽车、寒武纪-U遭净卖出额居前，金额分别为14.62亿元、13.82 亿元、9.53亿元。 Wind统计显示，本周（9月22日至9月26日）共有1794只个股获融资净买入，净买入金额在千万元以上 的有933只，共有167只融资净买入额超1亿元。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

9月25日沪指下跌0.01%，市场两融余额为24443.66亿元，较前一交易日增加132.61亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至9月25日，沪市两融余额12417.58亿元，较前一交易日增加65.67亿元； 深市两融余额11948.48亿元，较前一交易日增加66.86亿元；北交所两融余额77.60亿元，较前一交易日 增加891.11万元；深沪北两融余额合计24443.66亿元，较前一交易日增加132.61亿元。 分行业看，申万所属行业中，融资余额增加的行业有20个，增加金额最多的行业是电力设备，融资余额 增加36.85亿元；其次是电子、通信行业，融资余额分别增加33.79亿元、21.18亿元。 具体到个股来看，融资余额出现增长的股票有1849只，占比49.70%，其中，330股融资余额增幅超过5% 。融资余额增幅最大的是优优绿能，该股最新融资余额1.45亿元，较前一交易日增幅达55.40%；股价表 现上，该股当日上涨9.80%，表现强于沪指；融资余额增幅较多的还有恒合股份、明阳科技，融资余额 增幅分别为44.87%、42.78%。 融资余额增幅前20只个股中，从市场表现来看，平均上涨2.18%，涨幅居前的 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 孙永乐 （资料图） 9月24日晚间，浙商证券公告显示，为促进信用业务发展及做好融资类业务规模管控，董事会同意调增 融资类业务规模，将融资类业务规模由400亿元提高至500亿元。 据不完全统计，2025年以来，包括浙商证券在内，已有华林证券、兴业证券、山西证券等四家券商，先 后上调融资类业务规模上限。其中，华林证券年内两度"提额"，3月将信用业务总规模上限调至62亿元 后，9月再度上调至80亿元。 券商信用业务纷纷"提额"，足以反映当前两融业务的火爆，背后是A股两融市场的火热势态。 截至9月24日，A股市场融资融券余额为24310.59亿元，创历史新高。其中，融资余额24140.84亿元，融 券余额169.75亿元。这也是今年以来第三个交易日融资余额突破2.4万亿元。 值得关注的是，融资融券交易额占A股交易额比重为12.25%，创2020年07月14日以来新高。 华林证券9月9日公告显示，董事会同意公司信用业务（包括融资融券、以自有资金出资的股票质押式回 购交易、约定购回式证券交易及其他信用业务）总规模上限调整为80亿元；同时授权公司经营管理层根 据公司及市场情况，在上述总规模范围内决定各 ...

Market Overview - On September 23, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, with the total margin trading balance at 24,167.88 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.44 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai market was 12,280.25 billion yuan, down by 16.75 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market saw an increase of 9.50 billion yuan to 11,809.72 billion yuan [1] Industry Analysis - Among the industries tracked by Shenwan, 10 sectors saw an increase in margin trading balances, with the electronics sector leading with an increase of 32.52 billion yuan, followed by the communication and power equipment sectors with increases of 12.85 billion yuan and 7.32 billion yuan, respectively [1] Stock Performance - A total of 1,682 stocks experienced an increase in margin trading balances, accounting for 45.23% of the total, with 283 stocks showing an increase of over 5% [1] - The stock with the highest increase in margin trading balance was Yingqu Technology, which saw a balance of 28.59 million yuan, a 56.25% increase from the previous day, and its stock price rose by 10.02% [1] - Other notable stocks with significant increases in margin trading balances included Amcare Pharma-U and Huilong Piston, with increases of 55.18% and 50.42%, respectively [1][2] Top Gainers and Losers - Among the top 20 stocks with the highest increase in margin trading balances, the average increase in stock prices was 4.81%, with Amcare Pharma-U, Changchuan Technology, and Jingzhida leading with increases of 20.02%, 20.00%, and 16.97%, respectively [2] - Conversely, stocks such as Kaipu Cloud, Gongyuan Shares, and Bond Shares experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 12.29%, 6.33%, and 4.92%, respectively [2] Margin Trading Balance Changes - A total of 2,037 stocks saw a decrease in margin trading balances, with 269 stocks experiencing a decline of over 5% [4] - The stock with the largest decrease in margin trading balance was Xun'an Technology, which saw a balance of 2.76 million yuan, a decrease of 36.27% from the previous day [5] - Other stocks with significant declines included Shanzi Gaoke and Guangdong Construction, with decreases of 36.26% and 33.45%, respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - As of September 22, the margin trading balance reached a new historical high of 2.4175 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.55% of the A-share circulating market value [1] Group 1: Margin Trading Data - On September 22, the net financing purchase amounted to 19.233 billion yuan, with the electronics, computer, communication, machinery equipment, and home appliances sectors receiving the highest net financing purchases [1] - The automotive industry experienced a net outflow of leveraged funds on the same day [1] Group 2: Top Stocks by Net Financing Purchase - The top five stocks with the highest net financing purchases on September 22 were Zhongke Shuguang, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Huagong Technology [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment strategies and market conditions, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies in different market environments, particularly highlighting the role of leverage and the shift in investor behavior. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Different market conditions require different investment strategies, with a multi-strategy approach yielding positive results, including a growth stock strategy with over 250% returns and a "shearing sheep" strategy (new shares + government bonds) with over 30% returns [2] - The use of options with a small amount of capital can achieve results comparable to larger investments in ETFs, suggesting a tactical approach to maintaining offensive positions [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized as a "water buffalo" driven by leveraged funds, with significant increases in margin financing since October 2022, indicating a reliance on speculative trading in small-cap stocks due to a lack of economic improvement [2] - The influx of retail investors has not kept pace with the rising stock indices, reflecting a shift in market dynamics where traditional methods of profit-taking are becoming more challenging [5] Group 3: Sector Performance - The article highlights the declining performance of certain sectors, such as the white liquor industry, which saw a production decrease of 9% year-on-year from January to August 2025, with an 18.2% drop in August alone [10] - The real estate sector is also discussed, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and expectations, leading to a decline in defensive positions for certain stocks [12] Group 4: Long-term Investment Perspective - The importance of long-term investment is emphasized, with a caution against becoming overly attached to specific stocks, as market conditions can change rapidly [8] - The article suggests that passive index investing may be a more reliable strategy for ordinary investors, given the volatility and unpredictability of individual stocks [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant inflow of over 2 billion yuan into SMIC, making it the top stock in net financing purchases, which subsequently led to a nearly 12% increase in its stock price [1][3] - The overall market situation shows that leveraged funds are active, with nearly 2,000 stocks receiving net purchases, and over 1,100 stocks having net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan, while around 200 stocks surpassed 100 million yuan [3] - SMIC's strong performance is attributed to the favorable policies in the semiconductor industry, increasing demand for AI chips, and a recovery in consumer electronics orders, positioning it as a leader in domestic chip manufacturing [3][4] Group 2 - The article contrasts the stocks that experienced net selling, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Zijin Mining, indicating that funds are reallocating towards more stable investments in hard technology leaders, major financial institutions, and top companies in the new energy sector [4] - The article warns ordinary investors against blindly following the significant purchase of SMIC shares without understanding the underlying long-term logic of the semiconductor industry [4] - The future stability of leveraged funds in hard technology leaders like SMIC will depend on the industry's fundamentals, including order increases and technological breakthroughs [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the trend of strong stocks and weak bonds continued, with increased differentiation in the stock market. The trading volume of the stock market increased overall, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 leading the gains, while micro - cap stocks continued to decline with reduced volume. The technology sector remained the main theme, and the leading sectors were either previously strong or previously stagnant, possibly due to the phased game of existing funds. New marginal pricing forces have joined the market, and the preference of existing funds has changed [5]. - Leveraged funds continue to contribute incremental strength, with their industry distribution becoming more "even" and popular stocks experiencing "de - crowding". Quant funds are no longer the marginal pricing force driving the rise of micro - cap stocks. Domestic funds are shifting from popular to unpopular sectors, while foreign funds are showing an obvious inflow trend. Bank wealth management is accelerating the market through "fixed - income +" products. The investment preferences of insurance and foreign funds are changing [5][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Asset Price Performance 3.1.1. Major Asset Classes - Global stock markets in most countries rose to varying degrees this week, with the US NASDAQ leading the gains. Commodity prices were differentiated, with precious metals rising and non - ferrous metals and crude oil falling. The US dollar index remained basically unchanged, while the exchange rates of the RMB, Hong Kong dollar, and New Taiwan dollar continued to strengthen. Bonds were relatively weak, with the yields of Chinese, US, and Japanese government bonds rising to varying degrees. Chinese assets performed strongly, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.6% this week, and the RMB and Hong Kong dollar exchange rates strengthening since the end of July and early August respectively [14]. 3.1.2. A - share Market - The ChiNext (2.3%) led the gains among broad - based indices, followed by the STAR 50 (1.8%) and the Shenzhen Component Index (1.1%). The micro - cap stocks led the decline. The trading volume of micro - cap stocks decreased, and their trading volume has dropped by 31% from the August high. Medium - cap stocks continued to outperform large - cap and small - cap stocks, as indicated by the decline in the CSI 300/CSI 1000 ratio and the continuous increase in the CSI 500/CSI 1000 ratio [16][20][25]. - The top five sectors in terms of gains were automobiles (3.6%), electronics (3.4%), power equipment (3.3%), household appliances (2.3%), and machinery (2.2%). Except for electronics and power equipment, the leading sectors were previously stagnant [28]. Capital Behavior Tracking 3.2.1. Index Trends and Capital Preferences - Recently, the ChiNext, STAR 50, and CSI 300 have continued to reach new highs, while previously it was micro - cap stocks and dividend (bank) stocks. The change in index trends indicates that the investment preferences and dominant capital have changed [35]. 3.2.2. Leveraged Funds - The proportion of margin trading volume in A - share trading volume continued to rise this week, reaching a new high since 2023. Leveraged funds are flowing into industries that were previously net - sold or had low net - buying volumes in margin trading, and where the proportion of margin trading balances to market capitalization is low, such as transportation, food and beverage, banks, household appliances, and petroleum and petrochemicals. Popular stocks have shown "de - crowding", with the proportion of leveraged funds in popular stocks dropping from a high of 5.75% at the end of August to 1.86%. The net margin buying of the ChiNext and STAR 50 has significantly decreased, while that of the CSI 1000 and SSE 50 has increased significantly [37][41][44]. 3.2.3. Quant Funds - Since late August, the excess return of quant index - enhanced funds has significantly decreased, turning from positive to negative, which is almost simultaneous with the peak and decline of micro - cap stocks. The basis of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures has widened, indicating an increase in the hedging and risk - aversion needs of quant funds [50][51][56]. 3.2.4. Main Funds - The main funds of the CSI 300 have had continuous net outflows for five days. In the past week, main funds have almost withdrawn from all industries, with significant outflows from sectors such as computers, electronics, power equipment, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals, and inflows into sectors such as real estate, textile and apparel, and steel on the last two trading days [59][64]. 3.2.5. North - bound Funds - The total trading volume of north - bound funds increased significantly on Thursday and Friday this week, accounting for a new high of 13.9% of A - share trading volume on Friday. After the increase in north - bound trading volume on Thursday, the SSE 50 Connect rebounded, and the average increase of heavy - position stocks of north - bound funds on Friday was higher than the weekly median [66][70]. 3.2.6. Wealth Management Fund Transfer - From January to August this year, the new non - bank deposits reached approximately 6.4 trillion yuan, with about 3 trillion yuan added in July and August. The proportion of non - bank deposits in M2 has increased, in contrast to the decline in the proportion of storage - type institutions [75]. 3.2.7. Hong Kong Stock Market - Since August, the net buying and trading volume of south - bound funds flowing into the Hong Kong stock market have increased. In the past two weeks, the total trading volume of south - bound funds and their proportion in the Hong Kong stock market turnover have rebounded. The net buying volume of south - bound funds has decreased slightly compared to last week but remains at a relatively high level. South - bound funds mainly flow into sectors such as commerce and retail, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology. In the past week, the communication sector has changed from net outflows to net inflows [84][85].