Core Inflation Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown the largest month-on-month and year-on-year increase since January, with a year-over-year increase of 2.9% compared to 2.7% in July [1][2] - Core commodities have shifted from being a negative drag on CPI to a positive contributor, likely due to tariff effects, while core services remain sticky at 3.6% [6][10] Labor Market Concerns - There is a notable spike in jobless claims, which may be partly seasonal, with claims rising from 236,000 to 263,000, including a significant increase in Texas [4][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to prioritize labor market concerns over inflation data, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [7][9] Market Expectations - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain high, with a 100% chance of a rate cut in September and 92% in October, reflecting confidence in three rate cuts this year [5][9] - Economists express skepticism about the inflation report, indicating that the current inflation dynamics may not align with their expectations for a stable economic environment [6][10]

Market Overview - US equity futures are slightly up ahead of the CPI report, with S&P futures rising 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.3%, driven by tech stocks [1] - European stocks are also trending higher, while Chinese stocks have seen their largest advance since March, led by companies benefiting from China's push for homegrown technology [1][13] - Treasury yields remain steady at 4.05%, and the USD has seen a slight increase as the yen weakens [1][15] Corporate News - Citigroup's CEO anticipates a rise in deal-making as US companies gain confidence from clearer policy signals [4] - Brookfield has declared the debate over remote work to be over, indicating a shift in corporate work culture [4] - Tricolor, a used car seller and subprime lender, has filed for liquidation in bankruptcy [4] Stock Movements - Avidity Biosciences shares fell 19% after announcing a $500 million share offering [6] - Ecovyst Inc. shares rose 8% following Technip Energies' acquisition of its advanced materials and catalysts business [6] - Opendoor Technologies shares surged 36% after leadership changes, including the return of co-founders to the board [6] - Oxford Industries shares jumped 18% after reporting second-quarter profits that exceeded expectations [6] - Red Cat Holdings and Revolution Medicines both saw share increases of 9% following positive developments in their respective businesses [6] Economic Indicators - Expectations for the Fed to resume monetary easing have increased, with money markets betting on up to three quarter-point cuts by December [5][10] - A softer-than-expected CPI print could lead to speculation about a larger rate cut, while a stronger reading would support a more gradual approach [7][10] - The core CPI is expected to rise 0.3% for the second consecutive month, according to Bloomberg survey estimates [5][43] Investment Sentiment - The prevailing bullish sentiment in the market carries risks of increased volatility, especially after a strong rally [11][12] - Investors are weighing diverging narratives, with easier financial conditions supporting the rally, yet concerns about tightening trade margins and inflation impacting earnings forecasts [10][12] - US share buybacks are projected to increase by $600 billion over the coming years, indicating strong corporate confidence [10]

Group 1 - The current Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at 2.9%, which is above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2][3] - Inflation is expected to continue accelerating due to higher tariffs and immigration policies affecting labor markets [3] - The job market is experiencing stagnation, with flat job growth, which may lead to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][10] Group 2 - If CPI comes in lower than expected, it could open the door for a 50 basis point rate cut, which the market may react positively to [6][7] - The bond market is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve as it reflects investor sentiment regarding future monetary policy [9] - There is a possibility of six rate cuts priced in by the end of 2026, reflecting concerns about job market weakness and persistent inflation [11][12]

All right, so estimates 2.9% headline. I know Jay Pal said 2.9% was fine for PCE. Is 2.9% okay for CPI knowing that we have this Fed meeting coming up just uh less than a week, just about 6 days away.And if it comes in in line or lower, what do you think that means for the market. Well, tough questions, right. A lot of questions.Uh 2.9%'s above the Fed's target. I mean, the CPI runs about a half a point above the consumer expenditure deflator, which is what the Fed targets, and that's the 2% target. So if y ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 is currently up, while other indices are down, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1] - A potential area of resistance was identified at 655, which was tested but subsequently faded [2] - The current trading level around 6520 is crucial for support, with 6510 as the next level if a failure occurs [3] Sector Performance - Utilities outperformed the tech sector, which is notable given the strong performance of Oracle and semiconductors earlier in the day [5][6] - Constellation Energy (CEG) saw a significant increase of around 6%, contributing to the utilities sector's strength [5] - Despite Oracle's earlier gains of over 40%, the tech sector did not maintain its lead over utilities, raising questions about market dynamics [6][8] Volatility and Economic Indicators - Volatility is increasing ahead of the upcoming CPI report, suggesting a defensive positioning among investors [8][12] - The market is bracing for the CPI report, with expectations that it will reflect the aggressive PPI data from the previous month [12][13] - The 10-year Treasury yield is being closely monitored, with a key support area identified at 3.97% [15] Technical Analysis - The market has been in a descending channel, indicating bearish trends, but a break above 6530 could lead to a potential squeeze [5] - Current volume levels are average, with no strong indications of a market breakdown or broad enthusiasm [12] - Weekly charts for utilities and industrials are showing potential bearish setups, which could impact future performance [10]

Market Outlook - Current market sentiment reflects a "Goldilocks scenario" where investors expect no compression in corporate margins, contained inflation, and a softening labor market allowing for rate cuts without recession [1] - The belief that earnings growth will remain strong as the Fed cuts rates is viewed as overly optimistic, with historical evidence suggesting significant risks associated with such a scenario [1][2] Economic Indicators - Historical patterns indicate that the Fed typically cuts rates during profit slowdowns, often leading to initial market declines before recovery [2] - Analysts tend to overestimate earnings during slowdowns, which is expected to be the case again, indicating stress in the market rather than a bull market [3] Investment Strategy - In light of the low probability of a favorable economic outcome, the recommendation is to focus on high-quality, dividend-paying equities, enhance regional diversification, and avoid corporate credit exposure [4]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank has raised its target from 6,550 to 7,000, returning to its original forecast for the year, which is now the second highest target on the market [1]. Market Impact and Economic Factors - The market experienced a significant shock due to tariffs, prompting a reevaluation of various economic factors, including the economy and Federal Reserve policies [2]. - Despite initial negative expectations regarding tariffs, their impact on growth and inflation has been minimal, with earnings growth actually increasing in the second quarter [3]. - Companies have indicated that while the tariffs are a shock, they are manageable, leading to a return to the 7,000 target [4]. Market Positioning and Investor Sentiment - The market is currently at new highs, suggesting that many investors have entered the market, leading to an overweight position [5]. - Systematic strategies have contributed to the market being overweight, while discretionary investors have maintained a neutral position for the past two months, indicating potential upside [6]. Earnings and Buybacks - The combination of market positioning, potential inflows, and buybacks supports the argument for an 8% increase, aligning with the 7,000 target [6]. - If earnings remain stable, buybacks are expected to continue, further supporting market growth [6]. Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - The impact of potential rate cuts is under discussion, with considerations on whether cuts of 50 or 75 basis points by year-end will significantly affect the market [7]. - Current pricing in the market reflects expectations around rates, with medium to long-term rates being more influential than short-term rates [8]. - Near-term rate changes are viewed as less critical unless they deliver a significant surprise [9].

Core Insights - Rocket Companies is positioned to benefit from declining mortgage rates, with strong refinancing market share and strategic acquisitions driving growth in volume and profitability [1] - Bank of America Securities upgraded Rocket Companies to Buy, raising the price target to $24, indicating a 17% upside potential [2] Group 1: Market Position and Growth Potential - Rocket holds approximately 10% of the refinancing market, which is expected to grow as mortgage rates decrease [3] - The acquisition of Mr. Cooper is projected to generate $500 million in synergies, including $400 million in cost savings and $100 million in revenue increases [4] - The recently completed acquisition of Redfin is anticipated to contribute an additional $200 million in synergies [4] Group 2: Financial Performance and Forecasts - Rocket reported Q2 earnings of $0.04 per share on revenues of $1.34 billion, exceeding market expectations [6] - The company forecasts Q3 revenue between $1.60 billion and $1.75 billion, surpassing the market estimate of $1.50 billion [6] - Bank of America raised its 2026 EPS forecast for Rocket by 11% to $1.02, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [3]

CPI tomorrow - rate cuts next week?Good volatility in both directions. Took big profits off leveraged positions for nowThink with patience a good opportunity to get long again will come ...

Next move Wall Street's major averages closed at more record highs on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 (SP500) finishing the session above the 6,500 level. Investors are now clear-minded about a coming cycle of rate cuts after real weakness was confirmed in the labor market amid a record 911K nonfarm payroll revision to yearly jobs growth. Following the release, JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon also came out with a stance pointing to "weakening economy," charging up the stimulus bulls who have been eager to see easing ...