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Cliffs(CLF) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-02-09 14:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total shipments in Q4 2025 were 3.8 million tons, slightly lower than Q3 due to seasonal impacts, with expectations for Q1 2026 to improve back to 4 million tons [15] - Q4 price realization was $993 per net ton, down by approximately $40 per net ton, but a substantial improvement in realized prices is expected starting in Q1 2026, with an anticipated increase of about $60 per ton [16][30] - Unit costs decreased by $40 per ton in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of reductions, with further expectations of a $10 per ton decrease in 2026 [16][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has shifted melting capacity from low-margin slabs to higher-margin flat-rolled products, anticipating continued demand for domestically produced slabs [5] - Multi-year fixed-price contracts with major automotive OEMs have been signed, increasing market share and securing high-margin business for 2026 [7][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Canadian government has implemented restrictions on imported steel, positively impacting the Canadian subsidiary Stelco and improving pricing and shipments [4][12] - The U.S. market is benefiting from Section 232 tariffs at 50%, driving demand for domestically produced steel and reducing import competition [4][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging existing production capacity without the need for new plants, positioning itself to benefit from the anticipated increase in domestic vehicle production [8][10] - The strategic partnership with POSCO aims to enhance collaboration and meet U.S. trade requirements, with a definitive agreement targeted for the first half of 2026 [13][52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the improving business environment, citing a solid order book, rising prices, and declining costs as key factors for profitability in 2026 [20][21] - The company is committed to maximizing profitability through operational efficiency and strategic partnerships, with a focus on the automotive sector [20][21] Other Important Information - The company achieved its lowest total recordable incident rate in 2025, reflecting significant improvements in safety performance [14] - Capital expenditures in 2025 were a record low at $561 million, with projections for 2026 to be around $700 million, reflecting normalized maintenance capital [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expected benefits from the cancellation of the slab contract - Management expects an EBITDA improvement of approximately $500 million from the cancellation of the slab contract, with benefits starting in Q1 but more pronounced in Q2 and Q3 [26][30] Question: CapEx expectations beyond 2026 - CapEx for 2026 is projected at $700 million, with expectations to rise to $900 million in 2027 due to a blast furnace reline, then returning to $700 million in 2028 [34] Question: Open capacity and potential EBITDA sensitivity - The company has significant downstream capacity available, with the need for increased domestic automotive production to fully utilize this capacity [39] Question: Outlook for Q1 and pricing expectations - Shipments are expected to return to 4 million tons in Q1, with ASP anticipated to increase by $60 per ton, driven by improved demand and pricing dynamics [43][44] Question: Impact of Stelco on earnings and market dynamics - Stelco's performance in 2025 was disappointing due to market conditions, but improvements are expected in 2026 as Canadian pricing stabilizes [60][64]
Under Armour widens loss outlook as tariffs bite
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-09 13:57
Core Viewpoint - Under Armour reported a decline in third-quarter revenue and a worsened full-year loss outlook, attributing these issues to weaker demand in North America and increased US tariffs [1][5]. Financial Performance - Net revenue for Q3 2025 decreased by 5% year-on-year to $1.33 billion, or 6% lower on a currency-neutral basis [1] - The company experienced a quarterly net loss of $431 million, which included a $247 million valuation allowance related to US federal deferred tax assets [1] - Adjusted net income for the quarter was $37 million [1] Sales Breakdown - Wholesale sales fell by 6% to $660 million, while direct-to-consumer revenue dropped by 4% to $647 million, with online sales down by 7% [2] - Apparel revenue decreased by 3% to $934 million, footwear revenue declined by 12% to $265 million, and accessories revenue fell by 3% to $108 million [2] Cost and Margin Analysis - Gross margin contracted by 310 basis points to 44.4%, primarily due to tariffs, pricing pressures, and an unfavorable sales mix [2] - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs rose by 4% to $665 million, largely due to a $99 million litigation reserve and $3 million in restructuring-related expenses [3] - On an adjusted basis, SG&A expenses fell by 7% [3] Regional Performance - North America revenue dropped by 10% to $757 million, partially offset by a 3% increase in international revenue, with EMEA up by 6% and Latin America up by 20% [4] - Revenue in the Asia Pacific region declined by 5% [4] Inventory and Cash Position - Inventory decreased by 2% to $1.1 billion, with the company ending the quarter with $465 million in cash and $600 million in restricted investments for upcoming debt repayments [4] Full-Year Outlook - For the full year, Under Armour expects revenue to decline by 4% and forecasts an operating loss of $154 million, compared to earlier guidance of a $56 million to $71 million loss [5] - Adjusted operating income is projected to be near $110 million, with diluted loss per share expected to be between $1.24 and $1.25 [5]
BYD files lawsuit, seeks refund over Trump's US auto tariffs
Reuters· 2026-02-09 13:51
Core Viewpoint - Chinese automaker BYD has initiated a lawsuit against the U.S. government, contesting President Donald Trump's authority to impose tariffs and seeking a refund for all levies paid [1] Group 1: Company Actions - BYD is challenging the legality of the tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, which it argues are excessive and unjustified [1] - The lawsuit aims to recover all tariffs that BYD has previously paid, indicating a significant financial impact on the company [1] Group 2: Industry Implications - The legal action taken by BYD may set a precedent for other automakers facing similar tariff challenges, potentially influencing the broader automotive industry [1] - The outcome of this lawsuit could affect trade relations between the U.S. and China, particularly in the automotive sector, which is heavily impacted by tariff policies [1]
January's inflation numbers land on Friday and many on Wall Street are bracing for an unpleasant surprise
WSJ· 2026-02-09 10:30
Group 1 - Prices tend to spike in January, with tariffs being a potential reason, but a more likely cause is suggested to be more esoteric factors [1]
Trump predicting 100K on Dow by time he leaves office, claims he was 'right about everything'
Fox Business· 2026-02-09 04:38
Group 1 - President Trump predicts the Dow Jones Industrial Average will reach 100,000 by January 2029, following its recent close past 50,000 for the first time [1] - Trump attributes the record stock market performance and national security to his tariffs, claiming that 96% of tariff costs are absorbed by American consumers and businesses [5][1] - A recent study indicates that tariffs may have cost the U.S. economy thousands of jobs monthly, highlighting the potential negative impact of tariff policies [8] Group 2 - An interim trade deal has been reached between the U.S. and India, which lowers tariffs on goods and agricultural products from both countries [2] - Trump's comments regarding the Supreme Court's review of his tariff authority suggest ongoing legal scrutiny of his administration's trade policies [4] - Trump emphasizes the economic strength of the country, stating that it is "stronger, bigger, and better than ever before" [9]
Will Tariffs & EVs Destroy This Top Stock's Bottom Line in 2026?
The Motley Fool· 2026-02-08 15:24
While tariff complications and EV profitability will continue to weigh on bottom lines, this automaker is still driving strong results.While the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) industry lost some steam and tariff complications made investors nervous, General Motors (GM +1.17%) managed to drive through the obstacle course of issues last year with ease.The company topped earnings estimates for the fourth quarter, reached its highest U.S. market share since 2015, increased its dividend 20% and authorized a new $6 b ...
UBS Lowers SoFi Technologies (SOFI) PT to $24.50 Following Mixed Performance
Insider Monkey· 2026-02-08 10:20
Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] Investment Opportunity - A specific company, largely overlooked by AI investors, is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for energy due to AI data centers, making it a critical player in the upcoming AI energy spike [3][6] - This company is not a chipmaker or cloud platform but owns essential energy infrastructure assets that are crucial for supporting AI technologies [3][7] Energy Demand and Infrastructure - AI technologies, particularly large language models like ChatGPT, consume vast amounts of energy, comparable to the energy needs of small cities, leading to strain on global power grids [2][4] - The company in focus is involved in nuclear energy infrastructure and is capable of executing large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction projects across various energy sectors, including oil, gas, and renewables [7][8] Financial Position - The company is debt-free and has a significant cash reserve, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, which positions it favorably compared to other energy firms burdened with debt [8][10] - It also holds a substantial equity stake in another AI-related company, providing investors with indirect exposure to multiple growth opportunities in the AI sector [9][10] Market Trends - The current market environment is characterized by a surge in U.S. LNG exports and a focus on onshoring due to tariffs, which the company is well-positioned to capitalize on [5][14] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, reinforcing the importance of investing in AI-related companies [12][13] Conclusion - The company represents a unique investment opportunity in the intersection of AI and energy, with potential for significant returns as the demand for energy in AI applications continues to grow [10][15]
JPMorgan and Citigroup Lift Price Targets on L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (LHX)
Insider Monkey· 2026-02-08 05:13
Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgency to invest now [1][13] - The energy demands of AI technologies are highlighted, with data centers consuming as much energy as small cities, leading to concerns about power grid strain and rising electricity prices [2][3] Investment Opportunity - A specific company is positioned as a critical player in the AI energy sector, owning essential energy infrastructure assets that will benefit from the increasing energy demands of AI [3][7] - This company is described as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, profiting from the surge in electricity demand driven by AI advancements [4][5] Market Position - The company is noted for its unique capabilities in executing large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects across various energy sectors, including nuclear energy, oil, gas, and renewables [7][8] - It is completely debt-free and has a significant cash reserve, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, which positions it favorably compared to other heavily indebted firms [8][10] Strategic Advantages - The company holds a substantial equity stake in another AI-related venture, providing investors with indirect exposure to multiple growth opportunities in the AI sector [9][10] - The stock is described as undervalued, trading at less than seven times earnings, which is attractive for investors looking for growth potential in the AI and energy markets [10][11] Future Outlook - The ongoing influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive rapid advancements and innovation, reinforcing the importance of investing in AI-related companies [12] - The combination of the AI infrastructure supercycle, onshoring trends due to tariffs, and a focus on nuclear energy positions this company as a key player in the future energy landscape [14]
Jefferies Lifts Price Target on General Dynamics Corporation (GD) to $385, Maintains Hold Rating
Insider Monkey· 2026-02-08 05:13
Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal! AI is eating the world—and the machines behind it are ravenous. Each ChatGPT query, each model update, each robotic breakthrough consumes massive amounts of energy. In fact, AI is already pushing global power grids to the brink. Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into artificial intelligence—training smarter chatbots, automating industries, and b ...
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy Warns Shoppers Are 'Starting To See More Of That Impact' As Trump's 10% Tariffs Begin Hitting Prices On Amazon
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-07 20:31
Core Insights - Price changes are starting to manifest in Amazon's marketplace due to tariff-related costs impacting consumer prices [1][3] - Amazon's CEO indicated that the company and third-party sellers had previously stocked inventory to mitigate tariff effects, but as these supplies deplete, prices are beginning to reflect the increased costs [3][4] - Retail economics present challenges in absorbing rising costs, with limited options available for retailers to manage significant cost increases [5] Price Changes and Tariffs - Amazon and third-party sellers took proactive measures last year by purchasing inventory in advance to limit tariff impacts [3] - As inventory runs out, the costs associated with tariffs are beginning to be passed on to consumers through higher prices [4] - Sellers are responding to tariff pressures by either increasing prices or absorbing costs to maintain demand [4] Economic Context - The retail sector operates on mid-single digit operating margins, making it difficult to absorb a 10% increase in costs without passing some of that burden onto consumers [5] - Despite economic uncertainty, consumers have shown resilience in spending but are adjusting their shopping behaviors [6]