Interest Rate Expectations & Monetary Policy - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve funds rate to be around 3% in the future, potentially influencing the housing market [5] - A neutral rate around 3% to 375% suggests current monetary policy remains tight [3] - The market is pricing in events 6 to 8 months ahead, indicating forward-looking expectations beyond current observations [9] Housing Market Dynamics - Approximately 85% of mortgage holders have rates below 55%, creating a barrier to moving unless rates narrow considerably [5] - A rate of 55% is seen as a potential catalyst to unlock the housing market [7] - Refinancing below 3% in January 2021 highlights the sensitivity of homeowners to mortgage rates [6] Market & Sector Implications - Small caps, particularly the Russell 2000, are up 19% [7] - Lower interest rates are expected to benefit tech investments and consumer discretionary sectors like Best Buy, Home Depot, Ford, and GM [10] - 40% of the Russell 2000 is unprofitable, making them highly reliant on interest rates and variable margins [9]

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@JonathanJLevin @keds_economist @AllisonSchrager Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who joined the board this week, voted against today’s decision in favor of lowering rates by a half pointhttps://t.co/gpI5tkEvOw ...

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time this year under mounting signs of labor market weakness. Follow live updates and analysis.https://t.co/t8ERR5O9NL ...

BREAKING NEWS: Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time this year under mounting signs of labor market weakness. Follow live updates and analysis.https://t.co/Ao4SQ6KoZH ...

Fed cuts 25 bps and median projections show 50 bps in more cuts coming in 2025Seems dovish, now we wait on Powell's commentary at 2:30 ...

Breaking: The Fed lowered rates by a quarter point, and officials penciled in cuts at each of two remaining meetings this year https://t.co/5W3WRYPWK9 ...

🇺🇸 BREAKING: Fed reduces interest rates by 25bps. https://t.co/quiUwxW7e7 ...

The Fed is cutting interest rates by 25 basis points.Another mistake.They should have done 50 basis points. ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 Federal Reserve lowers interest rates by 25bps. https://t.co/3Z85fFKhFU ...

💥 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 bps. https://t.co/fdJWOZCfoi ...