Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones expects the Nasdaq to climb higher by the end of the year as traders anticipate lower interest rates ahead https://t.co/xuh9olTjKO ...

Core Insights - The mortgage REITs (mREITs) have significantly outperformed the Business Development Company (BDC) sector this year, driven by falling short-term rates and increased investor caution due to bankruptcies among some borrowers [1][4]. Performance Comparison - The VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF (MORT) has consistently outperformed the VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD) and Putnam BDC Income ETF (PBDC) over the past 12 months, with substantial outperformance noted [4]. - The top holdings in MORT include Annaly Capital Management Inc. (15.08% of total holdings) and Agni Investment Corp. (14.51% of total holdings), indicating a strong focus on agency mortgage-backed securities [4][5]. Interest Rate Sensitivity - Agency mortgage REITs are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes, but there is a common misconception that they only benefit from lower rates. In reality, a significant decline in mortgage rates can lead to increased prepayments, negatively impacting mREITs [5][6]. - The ideal scenario for mortgage REITs is stable mortgage rates with a gradual decline in the Fed Funds Rate, allowing them to manage their portfolios effectively [12][11]. Valuation Insights - The price-to-book value for major mortgage REITs is estimated at approximately 1.08x to 1.23x, with projected increases in book values of about 4% to 5% from mid-2025 to the present [13]. - Some mortgage REITs may report declines in book value per share for Q3 2025, indicating potential volatility in valuations across the sector [13]. Investment Opportunities - There are opportunities within the mortgage REIT sector, with some shares becoming relatively cheap, although the focus has been more on BDCs recently due to their price declines [14]. - The company is also exploring investments in preferred shares and baby bonds, which offer attractive yields with more stable prices compared to common shares [15].

Market Trends & Drivers - Gold prices are hitting record highs, exceeding $4,100 per ounce, driven by investors seeking safe havens amid potential tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][20] - Central bank buying, particularly from BRICS nations, is a significant factor driving gold prices higher, as countries seek to diversify away from the US dollar [4][5] - US-China trade tensions and the weaponization of Swift have accelerated the move away from the dollar and towards gold as a reserve asset [5][6] - Gold ETF flows have increased significantly year-to-date, indicating growing investor interest [13] - Silver is catching up to gold in performance, driven by industrial and precious metal demand, as well as its perception as a more affordable alternative [21][22][23][24][25] Price Targets & Predictions - One expert predicts gold could reach $4,500 by the end of the year and potentially exceed $5,000 in a year, depending on fundamental shifts [7] - Another expert sets a gold price target of $5,200 by 2026, contingent on a correction to $3,500-$3,600 [30][34][35] Risks & Catalysts - Near-term risks for gold investors include the potential for price retracement after a significant move [8] - Potential positive catalysts for gold include the Federal Reserve loosening monetary policy and cutting interest rates more aggressively than anticipated [11] - Factors that could weaken the constructive view on gold include the government cutting deficit spending, dropping tariffs, or the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates [17][18] Investment Strategies - Exposure to gold can be gained through physical gold, ETFs, or gold mining stocks [13] - Gold mining stocks have become more attractive as their margins have widened due to the significant gold rally outpacing mining costs [15][16] - One ETF, the GY ETF, buys gold futures and invests the remaining funds in investment-grade corporate bonds to generate a 5% yield [13]

Gold Market Analysis - Gold is seen as a viable alternative to the dollar, especially with the acceleration of de-dollarization driven by sanctions and concerns about US fiscal policy [2] - Mainstream investors are starting to participate in the gold market, with major Wall Street banks recommending gold exposure in portfolios [2] - Central banks are expected to continue buying gold, competing with private investors and driving prices higher [4] - The dollar is expected to lose value, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates into rising inflation, further driving demand for gold [4] - China's central bank is divesting from US dollars and treasuries, replacing them with gold reserves to establish an independent monetary system [4] - The debasement trade narrative is taking hold as people recognize the flawed nature of CPI and seek assets that retain value [4][5] - Gold investors have outperformed US stock market investors, especially when pricing stocks in gold [3][4] Bitcoin vs Gold - Bitcoin is considered a risk asset correlated with the NASDAQ, while gold is seen as a safe haven store of value [8] - There is a risk of money flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs back into gold ETFs and gold stocks [1][8] - Bitcoin treasury companies may face downside risk and potential liquidation of their Bitcoin holdings [9] US Economic Policy - The Trump administration receives a failing grade (F) on economic policy due to massive government spending and deficits [13] - Tariffs are viewed as taxes that make American industry less competitive [14][15] - The speaker advocates for balanced budgets, debt restructuring, and deregulation to address fundamental economic problems [21][22][25]

Market Trends & Sentiment - Gold's 49% rally over the past 12 months signals potential market trouble ahead, contrasting with bullish equity sentiment [1] - The gold rally reflects increasing fear of stagflation or even recession in the medium term [2] - Gold's performance may reflect deeper concerns that run counter to equity market optimism [2] Economic Factors - Market expects lower interest rates in the future, boosting gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1] - Stubborn inflation keeps investors wary as elevated inflation erodes bond yields and purchasing power [1] - Declining deficit to GDP ratio is driven in part by tariff revenue and stronger GDP [1] - A sluggish labor market persists [1]

Let's talk more about markets. Uh Peter Bookvar is here, chief investment officer at one point uh at uh BFG Wealth Partners and a CNBC contributor. Good morning to you, sir.Andrew, uh help us understand what you think is actually going on here in markets. Uh well, I think this rally, the AI tech trade got a second wind after the deepseek news in late January. And who doesn't want to buy stocks when the Fed is cutting interest rates.So, I think that's what brings us to where we are today. Uh, but there's som ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve (Fed) considered lowering interest rates, with debate primarily focused on the number of cuts this year, potentially two or three [1] - The Fed decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) on September 17th [1] - One expert suggests the Fed should not cut interest rates and should have considered hiking them by 0.25% [2] - There are concerns that the Fed's September to December rate cuts last year were premature, based on a potentially flawed assessment of inflation [3] - All 12 voting members cut interest rates by 0.25%, raising questions about the Fed's priorities [4] Dual Mandate & Economic Objectives - The Fed's dual mandate (controlling both inflation and employment) is seen as an inconsistency, hindering its ability to effectively manage either objective [5][6] - The European Central Bank's single objective (inflation) is contrasted with the Fed's dual mandate [6] - The current administration is focused on maintaining a strong economy and low unemployment [7] - There's a divergence between the administration's focus on economic growth and the Treasury Secretary's desire to reduce the Fed's balance sheet, potentially creating conflicting objectives [8] Economic Strength & AI Impact - While growth numbers suggest a strong economy, employment figures may not reflect this strength [9] - The AI sector is significantly supporting the economy, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this boom and the potential for a "hiccup" [10] - AI is expected to be a significant long-term phenomenon, but there will be failures along the way, with potential hype exceeding actual value [12] - A potential failure of some AI companies in the next six months could have a stock market-wide impact [13] - The non-AI economy is underperforming, raising concerns about stagflation (weak economy with rising inflation) [13] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The Fed's 2% inflation target is not being met, with inflation running at 3% [13] - The New York Fed's survey of consumers indicates an increase in inflation expectations from 3.2% to 3.4% over the next year [13] - The Fed should prioritize dollar stability by maintaining a low and stable inflation rate [14][15] - Employment should be the responsibility of the US Treasury [15]

What changed between 2019 and 2025? Why are interest rates so much higher?Bloomberg's Tom Orlik and @RushEconomics join @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway on the Odd Lots podcast to unpack the neutral rate of interest, why it has gone up over the years and how it is affecting the global economy https://t.co/qoGXjc1GMM ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - Most FOMC officials suggested further policy easing would likely be appropriate this year [1] - A few officials indicated potential support for holding rates steady in September [1] - Some officials noted that current Fed policy may not be particularly restrictive [1]

Federal Reserve officials were divided over how much farther they should lower interest rates when they approved their first reduction of the year last month https://t.co/3Y1uvVkFhs ...