Market Overview - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $126,000, surprising many traders [1] - The rally was unexpected due to previous failures at new highs, where sell-offs occurred [6] - A short squeeze liquidated over $923 million in short positions, fueling the price surge [7] Key Drivers - Spot Bitcoin ETFs were the primary driver, with over $5 billion inflows in the first week of October [8] - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) absorbed nearly $1 billion in a single day [8] - Macro catalysts included US government shutdown and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [9] On-Chain Analysis - Bitcoin balance on centralized exchanges fell to 283% million BTC, the lowest since June 2019, creating a supply crunch [12] - Approximately 64% of Bitcoin has been held for over a year, indicating long-term holders are not selling [13] - MVRV z-score suggests Bitcoin is not yet in a state of mass euphoria, indicating room for growth [15] Institutional Price Targets - Wall Street consensus average sits around $156,000 for year-end 2025 [18] - Standard Chartered reaffirmed its $200,000 year-end 2025 price target, expecting $20 billion in ETF inflows [19][20] - JP Morgan estimates Bitcoin could climb to $165,000 based on a volatility-adjusted comparison with gold [20] Potential Risks - Macroeconomic risks, particularly a Federal Reserve policy reversal, could derail the rally [25] - High leverage in Bitcoin futures, with over $88 billion in open interest, makes the market vulnerable to liquidations [26] - Geopolitical risks could introduce extreme volatility [27]

I'm here in the CNBC Washington DC bureau with Fed Governor Chris Waller. Uh Governor Waller, thanks for joining us. >> Thanks, Steve.Pleasure to be on. >> So, we just reported you're one of the finalists for Fed chair. How do you feel about that.>> Uh I I don't know if I am a finalist or not. I thought the interview went well. I didn't get hit by a pitch, I don't think.So, we'll see how it we'll see where it goes from here. >> Well, hit by a pitch, you'd get a base, right. If that were the case.Um I unders ...

Real Estate Market Analysis - Interest rates decreased for 40 years (1980-2020), lowering cap rates and increasing real estate prices [1] - Immigration increased to offset cap rate driven increase in home prices [1] - Immigration is unlikely to continue, and interest rates are in a multi-decade uptrend [1] - The US has unsustainable debt and deficits, potentially weakening the dollar and US government debt [1] - Higher interest rates are needed to attract buyers for increasing US Treasuries supply [1] - Rising long-term rates increase cap rates, mathematically decreasing real estate prices [1] - Young people cannot afford homes, requiring a significant increase in housing supply to address affordability [1] Investment Implications - Demand for housing is decreasing, while supply is increasing, reversing previous market dynamics [1] - The tailwind from interest rates has become a headwind for real estate investment [1] - Factors that previously made real estate a good investment have reversed [1] - Owning a home may be an emotional decision but a poor financial one [1]

Market Trends - Initial public offerings rebounded in Q3 due to short-term clarity on tariffs and interest rates [1] - Momentum is expected to continue into the next year for IPOs [1]

As Gen Z awaits its share of the $124 trillion Great Wealth Transfer from their baby boomer relatives, the generation’s financial footing is being put to the test. Typically, younger consumers see the fastest year-over-year gains in credit scores as they build their financial histories. But this year, the opposite happened: Gen Z just experienced the steepest annual drop of any age group since 2020, with their average FICO credit score slipping three points to 676. That’s 39 points lower than the national ...

Romania will likely keep interest rates at one of the highest levels in Europe at least until the end March to help contain an inflation spike, according to a central bank board member https://t.co/pYkX71ugfv ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Uncertainty - The market perceives the Federal Reserve (Fed) as divided and cautious due to uncertainties surrounding inflation, labor market, government shutdown, and tariffs [1][2] - The Fed's debate needs resolution, which is a key focus for markets [3] - The Fed faces challenges in justifying policy moves without reliable economic data, especially given its data-dependent stance [5][6] - The Fed is considering a pause in policy adjustments due to data limitations caused by events like government shutdowns [5][6] - The Fed is aware of the debate surrounding the concentration of GDP growth in the AI sector but considers overall growth from consumers [12][13] - The Fed acknowledges the AI sector's contribution to GDP growth but questions its sustainability, which is unlikely to drive major decisions at this stage [14] Data & Economic Indicators - The Fed can use alternative data sources like state data and private sector indices to compensate for missing official economic reports [5][9] - Bank of America research indicates credit card spending is up over 2% for the week ending October 4th [8] - Earnings reports from companies like Delta Airlines and PepsiCo can provide insights into inflation and consumer spending [9] - Private sector economic reports may also be affected by the lack of incoming government data [9] - Atlanta Fed GDPNow tool estimates GDP growth at 38% [11]

If you're awaiting interest rates to fall in the coming months, you probably won't be disappointed—but inflation could easily spoil the party. https://t.co/7clBEC0M7L ...

Meanwhile, the Fed minutes out today reflecting division little bit over the direction of rates. A slim majority of Fed governors expecting two more cuts this year, but the central bank overall currently dealing with a darth of data. Darth Darth Darth Darth Vader.Darth thanks to the government shutdown. I mean, seriously, the September jobs report. Darth of I mean don't give me Don't give me the daggers.It's Darth. Yes, it is. That's it.Darth is from the movie. Is he Lwig or whatever you seen earlier today. ...

Well, we mentioned it before, but today is the six-month anniversary of the tariff crash low. The S&P 500 is up 35% since then. Our next guest says a return of volatility would not be surprising, but growth opportunities still exist.So, let's bring in Henyan and Walsh Asset Management President and CIO Kevin Man. Kevin, it's great to have you back here. >> Thank you, Morgan.>> On set, I mean, 35% gain in the S&P in six months. Who would have thought it. >> Who would have thought it.But if history serves as ...