For the second month in a row, we're seeing a significant cooldown in commercial real estate deal-making. With interest rates still high and all that continued uncertainty in the broader economy, it's just getting tougher to get the deals done. Now, I've been watching this space for a few decades now on CNBC, but now we're getting these amazing monthly spreadsheets of the actual deals provided exclusively to us by Moody's for the Property Play.That's my new platform dedicated to commercial real estate inves ...

Interest Rate Predictions - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate three times in 2025, totaling 75 basis points, which was more aggressive than initial market expectations [3] - For 2026, the median expectation is for an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts, typically occurring at two of the eight meetings throughout the year [4] - There is a belief that the market is underestimating the potential for more aggressive rate cuts, with a prediction of four or more cuts being more likely than the current 11% market pricing suggests [6] Economic Conditions - Economic uncertainty and pressures on the job market are expected to persist, influencing the Fed's decision-making [5] - The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.19%, which is higher than mid-2024 levels, but a significant drop to below 3.5% is predicted by the end of 2026 [6] - Predictions indicate that mortgage rates, currently averaging around 6.2%, could see significant relief, potentially falling to 5.5% by the end of 2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Insteel Industries Inc. reported a significant increase in net earnings and net sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, driven by strong demand for concrete reinforcement products and effective pricing strategies to offset rising costs [3][4][9]. Financial Performance - Net earnings for Q1 2026 rose to $7.6 million, or $0.39 per share, compared to $1.1 million, or $0.06 per share, in the same quarter last year [3][9]. - Net sales increased by 23.3% to $159.9 million from $129.7 million in the prior year quarter, attributed to an 18.8% rise in average selling prices and a 3.8% increase in shipments [4][9]. - Gross margin expanded by 400 basis points to 11.3% from 7.3% in the prior year quarter, driven by wider spreads and higher shipment volumes [4]. Cash Flow and Capital Allocation - Operating activities used $0.7 million in cash during the quarter, a decrease from generating $19.0 million in the prior year quarter, primarily due to changes in net working capital [5]. - Capital expenditures for Q1 2026 decreased to $1.5 million from $2.7 million in the prior year quarter, with total expected capital outlays for fiscal 2026 around $20.0 million [6]. Dividends and Liquidity - On December 12, 2025, Insteel paid a special cash dividend of $19.4 million, or $1.00 per share, in addition to its regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.03 per share [7][9]. - The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of $15.6 million and no outstanding borrowings on its $100.0 million revolving credit facility [7][9]. Market Outlook - Despite indications of softening construction activity, Insteel's markets remained resilient, with nonresidential construction driving demand supported by infrastructure spending [8][10]. - The company remains optimistic about 2026, expecting solid opportunities despite concerns over competitive pressures from imported products [10].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have decreased as investors took profits after reaching a record high, influenced by reduced fears of U.S. military action against Iran and a softer stance from President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve Chair [1][2] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold futures in New York fell by 0.6% to $4,608.60 per troy ounce, indicating a profit-taking trend among investors [2] - The easing of geopolitical tensions has contributed to a decline in demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Investors are closely monitoring U.S. weekly jobless claims data for insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction, as lower interest rates typically benefit non-yielding assets such as gold [2] - President Trump's comments about not planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may also influence market sentiment regarding interest rates [1]

A fresh wave of political pressure on the Federal Reserve is rippling through financial markets, and cryptocurrencies are among the biggest beneficiaries. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and major altcoins moved higher after President Donald Trump sharply criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a "jerk" and suggesting he "will be gone soon" during remarks at the Detroit Economic Club.The comments, combined with reports of a potential Department of Justice probe into aspects of Federal Reserve lead ...

The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president. I'm Eamon Javers, senior Washington correspondent for CNBC, and we've been watching this amazing story play out of this confrontation between the Department of Justice and the Federal Reserve over the past couple of days. This is a question about the future of the American economy. This is a question ...

Economic Data - The U.S. consumer prices rose +0.3% month-over-month in December, with annual inflation at +2.7%, consistent with expectations [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and fuel, increased by +0.2% month-over-month and +2.6% year-over-year, which was below expectations of +0.3% and +2.7% respectively [1] - U.S. new home sales fell -0.1% month-over-month to 737K in October, surpassing expectations of 716K [1] Market Performance - Wall Street's major indexes closed lower, with software stocks declining after Anthropic's new tool announcement, leading to Salesforce dropping over -7% and Adobe falling more than -5% [2] - Credit card companies also saw declines, with Visa down over -4% and Mastercard dropping more than -3% following President Trump's proposal for a cap on credit card interest rates [2] - Moderna's shares surged over +17% after the CEO announced plans for a combined flu and COVID-19 vaccine launch within two years [2] Corporate Earnings - The fourth-quarter corporate earnings season is underway, with major U.S. banks like Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup set to report [7] - S&P 500 companies are expected to see an average quarterly earnings increase of +8.4% for Q4 compared to the previous year [7] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates, with a 97.2% probability of no change and a 2.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the January meeting [6] - Fed officials expressed that inflation risks are easing, with expectations for prices to align with the central bank's target later this year [5] International Market Developments - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index decreased by -0.10% amid cautious sentiment ahead of U.S. economic data and bank earnings [13] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index reached a new record high, driven by potential political changes and strong performances in healthcare, energy, and banking sectors [17][18] - China's trade surplus hit a record $1.19 trillion in 2025, with exports rising +5.5% year-over-year, indicating robust manufacturing strength [15]

Group 1 - The Supreme Court may issue an opinion on tariffs today, which could impact market direction as the S&P 500 is at a critical juncture [1] - The S&P 500 is showing signs of a topping area rather than a "melt-up," with low volatility still prevailing [1] - Economic data is not affecting long-term rates, as evidenced by the CPI report having no impact on the 30-year yield [1] Group 2 - Japan's 10-year government bond yield is rising, currently at 2.17%, with potential to reach 2.25% based on current patterns [1] - The USD/JPY currency pair has broken above resistance at 159, with a move towards 162 appearing likely due to Japan's fiscal spending plans [1] Group 3 - Software stocks have experienced significant declines, with Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Workday seeing substantial drops [1] - ServiceNow has returned to its 2021 highs, while Workday's performance appears even worse [1] - The market sentiment suggests concerns that these software companies may be negatively impacted by AI advancements [1] Group 4 - AI computing powers are transforming the stock market, with a significant portion of global portfolios outperforming benchmarks [2] - The Tech Titans strategy has notably doubled the S&P 500 within 18 months, featuring high-performing stocks like Super Micro Computer and AppLovin [2]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones led a market retreat from recent highs, with financials and software sectors experiencing declines [4][5] - Google and other AI-related stocks are noted to be performing well despite the overall market downturn [4] Economic Indicators - The ongoing dispute between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding interest rates is expected to continue, potentially impacting market sentiment [4] - Recent inflation data has influenced investor behavior, contributing to the market's reaction [7] Company-Specific News - Delta Air Lines has announced a deal with Boeing and provided guidance for 2026 amid increasing demand [6] - JPMorgan and Bank of New York Mellon have reported diverging earnings results, indicating varied performance within the banking sector [7] - The upcoming earnings season is highlighted by key companies such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Taiwan Semiconductor [9]

What's going on, guys? Today we got a great conversation with John Pompiano. In this conversation, we talk about what's going on with Jerome Powell. He's in hot water, inflation, monetary policy, how it's impacting the market, what's going on with Bitcoin, and then we talk a little bit about the NYC token and what Eric Adams got himself into as well. All that and more in this conversation with John Pompiano. All right, John, what's the first topic? >> All right, Jerome Powell seems to be the guy, talk of th ...