Vi e w p o i n t | 23 Dec 2025 04:21:39 ET │ 16 pages Japan Economics Prospects for 2026：Will seeds of destabilization emerge amidst stability? CITI'S TAKE We expect Japan's GDP to grow at above-trend +1.0% in 2026, demonstrating resilience (albeit down modestly from +1.3% growth in 2025). As headline inflation temporarily falls below 2% and strong wage growth continues, headwinds facing purchasing power of consumers look likely to ease. We expect this situation to allow pass-throughs of rising costs to ser ...

First Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Asia ex-Japan India: Are rate cuts over? The December MPC meeting minutes show that ultra-low inflation was the trigger for the rate cut, while advocating data dependence ahead. Downside surprise on inflation led to the December cut In the December meeting, the RBI materially cut its FY26 (year ending March) inflation forecast to 2.0% from 2.6%, with the one-year ahead forecast lowered by around 50bp to 4.0% (at the RBI's target). With concurrent inflation ...

Core Insights - American consumers are increasingly interested in receiving cryptocurrency as Christmas gifts, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior amid rising inflation [1][5] - Despite inflation pressures, the desire for digital assets as gifts is growing, particularly among younger demographics [3][4] Consumer Behavior - 28% of Americans would be excited to receive crypto as a holiday gift, with this figure rising to 45% among Gen Z, indicating a strong preference for flexible and digital-first assets [3] - 47% of US shoppers are utilizing AI tools for holiday purchases, focusing on optimization rather than excess spending [3] Demographic Trends - Younger shoppers, especially Gen Z, show higher adoption rates of crypto payments, digital wallets, and biometric authentication compared to other age groups [4] - The trend suggests that crypto gifting is not replacing essential purchases but is instead taking the place of traditional discretionary items [4] Cultural Shift - The acceptance of cryptocurrency as a gift signifies a cultural normalization rather than mere speculative interest, potentially influencing future gifting and holiday spending patterns [5] - The growing comfort with digital assets among younger consumers may shape future consumer spending and investment habits [6]

Market Overview - The markets are experiencing upward momentum as inflation pressures ease and rate cuts are anticipated [1] - Despite this positive trend, stretched valuations and tariff uncertainties are causing concern among investors [1] Economic Context - The current economic situation has significantly improved since 2022, which saw the fastest increase in interest rates in 40 years due to unprecedented inflation and fiscal stimulus [2] - Central banks have managed to control inflation without severely impacting the labor market, which is historically unusual [3] Future Outlook - The trajectory into 2026 and 2027 appears promising, with expectations of returning to a more stable economic environment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. GDP growth of 4.3% in Q3 is being challenged by economist David Rosenberg, who claims the true growth is only 0.8% due to underlying economic weaknesses masked by government spending and depleted savings [1][3]. Economic Growth Analysis - The BEA reported a real GDP increase from 3.8% in Q2 to 4.3% in Q3, primarily driven by consumer spending, exports, and government spending [2]. - Rosenberg argues that the reported figures are misleading, suggesting that when government spending, shifting import data, and a significant decline in personal savings are excluded, the economy shows minimal expansion [3][4]. Diverging Perspectives - The report has ignited a debate among analysts, with Rosenberg viewing the economy as hollow and reliant on unsustainable spending, while Gordon Johnson from GLJ Research perceives a concerning nominal boom [4]. - Johnson noted that nominal GDP growth exceeded 8%, with a GDP price index of 3.8%, which is significantly above the Federal Reserve's target, raising concerns about inflation and the Fed's current easing policies [5][6].

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research 22 December 2025 Global Data Watch: Asia China's post-tariff export diversification is broader than presumed No place to hide: China's post-tariff export diversification is broader than presumed A recurring theme characterizing 2025 has been that Chinese domestic demand disappointments have been offset by external sector resilience. Even as US tariffs on China at ~32% are among the highest in the world, China's goods exports have grown by 5% in 2025, in line wi ...

“Shark Tank” investor Kevin O'Leary has issued a stark warning regarding the proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” cheques linked to the new ‘Trump Accounts’ initiative, labeling the concept “helicopter money” that risks reigniting the country’s battle with soaring inflation. Inflation Trap In a video shared by him on X, he reacted to the proposed payouts, arguing that the U.S. economy cannot afford another injection of unearned cash. Drawing a direct parallel to pandemic-era stimulus, he stated, “We tried th ...

Photo by BeInCrypto Americans are feeling the pressure of higher living costs, but they are not stepping away from crypto.  A new holiday spending survey from Visa Inc. shows a growing appetite for digital assets as gifts, even as inflation continues to limit disposable income and keep consumers cautious. The contrast highlights a deeper shift in how households adapt when money feels tight. Inflation Is Cooling, but Budgets Still Feel Tight Inflation has eased from its post-pandemic peak, but prices re ...

Wall Street closed higher for a fifth consecutive session on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining approximately 300 points to reach a fresh record high as investors welcomed weaker-than-expected inflation signals. ...

Mortgage Rates - The average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage decreased to 6.18% from 6.21% last week, down from 6.85% a year ago [1] - The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.5% from 5.47% last week [7] Economic Indicators - The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a third-quarter GDP growth of 4.3%, surpassing economists' expectations of 3.3% [5] - The consumer price index rose 0.2% in November from the prior month and increased 2.7% year-over-year, both figures lower than economists' projections [6] Labor Market - Employers added 64,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [7] Market Outlook - Higher inventory levels compared to last year may provide buyers with a better rate environment entering the new year [9] - If mortgage rates stabilize or decrease slightly, buyers could experience increased purchasing power in 2026, following two slow housing years [10]