Apart from the obvious potential conflicts of interest, an xAI investment carries worrying echoes of Tesla's rescue of SolarCity, @liamdenning says (via @opinion) https://t.co/279yIyyd33 ...

Core Viewpoint - Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is experiencing a bullish trend as it trades above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), driven by its focus on the Permian Basin and contributions from inorganic assets [1][3]. Performance Summary - OXY has rallied 22.2% in the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Oil and Gas – Integrated-United States industry and the S&P 500 Composite [6][8]. - The company has cut $6.8 billion in debt over the past 10 months, which has boosted income despite falling earnings estimates [8][12]. Key Drivers - Strategic acquisitions, including Anadarko Petroleum in 2019 and CrownRock L.P. in 2024, have significantly enhanced production volumes and top-line performance [10]. - International assets, such as Qatar's Dolphin gas project and Oman's Mukhaizna oilfields, are expected to contribute 226-236 thousand barrels of oil equivalents per day in 2025 [11]. - OXY's low-cost operations in the Permian Basin and systematic capital investment are expected to enhance well productivity and reduce lifting costs [12][13]. Financial Metrics - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OXY's 2025 and 2026 earnings per share has decreased by 4.64% and 11.03%, respectively, in the past 60 days [15]. - OXY's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16.6%, slightly below the industry average of 16.89% [21]. - The current trailing 12-month Enterprise Value/Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA TTM) for OXY is 5.35X, compared to the industry average of 4.97X, indicating that OXY's shares are trading at a premium [25]. Conclusion - OXY's focus on debt reduction and strong domestic and international operations, along with benefits from recent acquisitions, are expected to support overall performance despite challenges from volatile commodity prices and declining earnings estimates [27].

Banking Industry Performance & Outlook - The banking industry anticipates a strong quarter, projecting earnings per share growth of 7%, with expectations rising to 14% for the following year [1] - Revenue growth is observed within the industry, a trend not seen recently [2] - Credit costs are expected to remain well-managed [2] - Net interest income growth for the sector is projected at 9% this year [5] Loan Growth & Market Confidence - Loan growth experienced softness at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter, but is expected to finish the second quarter stronger [2][3] - Increased confidence and market stabilization contributed to improved performance during the quarter [4] - Reduced nervousness regarding the uncertainty of a new administration is contributing to a pickup in loan growth [6] Economic Factors - The yield curve has steepened, allowing banks to function more effectively [4] - The percentage expectation for a recession continues to decrease [7] - Positive job growth and a declining unemployment rate are observed [7] - GDP growth is present, albeit slow [8] - Inflation has not significantly increased, contributing to increased comfort levels [8]

Let's bring in Samir Sana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, head of global equities and real assets. Samir, good to have you back. Thanks for the time.Um, Alen, all this talk about tariffs, are are you in sort of a waiting mode to see if and when this does hit or create some degradation in the macro. Not really. I mean, look, at the end, you know, end of the day, at least for us, it's it's a direction of travel, right.And so, if you look at the start of the year, we basically had dimminimous tariffs, and w ...

Core Viewpoint - M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) is expected to report year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings for Q2 2025, despite challenges such as a fall in loan balance and rising expenses in the previous quarter [1][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The consensus estimate for MTB's Q2 2025 earnings is $4.03 per share, reflecting a 6.3% increase from the previous year [13]. - The consensus estimate for revenues is $2.39 billion, indicating a 3.6% rise from the prior-year reported level [13]. - MTB's management anticipates a modest rise in average loans for Q2 2025, contributing to the growth of average interest-earning assets, which is estimated at $191.8 billion, a 1.4% increase from the prior quarter [4]. Group 2: Net Interest Income (NII) and Fee Income - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII (on a tax-equivalent basis) is projected at $1.75 billion, representing a 3.1% increase from the previous quarter [5]. - Management expects higher average total deposits in Q2 2025, which is likely to enhance revenues from service charges on deposit accounts, with a consensus estimate of $135.9 million, a 2.2% rise from the prior quarter [6]. - Mortgage banking fees are expected to improve, with the consensus estimate pegged at $128 million, indicating an 8.5% rise from the previous quarter [8]. Group 3: Expense Management - MTB's management projects a sequential decline in total expenses for Q2 2025, primarily due to lower seasonal compensation costs, with total expenses estimated at $1.37 billion, reflecting a 3.4% decrease [11]. - Despite pressures on NII and concerns regarding expenses, the company is expected to post higher earnings and revenues, supported by mortgage and deposit fees [10]. Group 4: Earnings Surprise Potential - The company has surpassed consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average negative earnings surprise of 6.67% [2]. - The Earnings ESP for MTB is +0.12%, indicating a favorable outlook for beating estimates this time [12].

City Croup, a US equity strategist Scott Croner's with us at Post9 as we get set for earnings season to kick into higher gear. Good to see you, Scott. Welcome.Great to be here, Carl. Um, is the market really just focused on on Q2 earnings. Well, I think it's focused on Q2 earnings, but I actually think it's increasingly focused on the follow through and the aftermath of tariffs and other policy news in terms of what it means for 2026.As we go in the back half of the year, you usually flip forward on the cal ...

Market Overview & Tariffs - US stock futures are in the red as new tariff threats from President Trump target Mexico and the European Union, following a 35% tariff on Canadian goods [3][4] - The European Union is considering delaying tariffs on US exports but is prepared with over 24 billion in tariffs on US goods if a deal isn't reached [4][5] - The US dollar is slightly up against the euro, while European stocks are declining due to tariff concerns [5] Alternative Assets - Bitcoin surpassed 122,000, reaching a new all-time high, up about 10% in the past week and over 30% this year [6] - US stocks linked to crypto are seeing pre-market gains, with Michael Sailor Strategy up about 2%, and Coinbase and Robin Hood up over 1% [7] - Silver is up over 33% this year, surpassing gold's 27% rise, trading near $40 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and tighter supply [15] Economic Data & Earnings - Inflation reports from the US and Europe are in focus, with the US core CPI expected to show a 29% increase over the prior year in June [8] - Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to have grown by just under 5% over the prior year during the second quarter, marking the slowest pace since Q4 2023 [9] - Large banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America are reporting earnings, with expectations of trading revenue gains attributed to record trading after tariff announcements [9][10][11][12] Electric Vehicles & Tax Credits - The federal EV tax credit of $7,500 for new vehicles and $4,000 for used vehicles is set to expire on September 30th [38] - Chinese EV companies are releasing more electric SUVs, potentially weakening Tesla's position in the Chinese market [35][36] - Tesla is down about 08% and faces scrutiny due to Elon Musk's multiple leadership roles and the company's valuation being based on future technologies like robo taxis and humanoid robots [44][46][47] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - Markets are pricing in just a 7% chance of a Fed rate cut in July, with Goldman Sachs expecting the first rate cut in September [53][54] - Some strategists warn the Fed may hold steady due to lingering inflation risks and tariff uncertainty, potentially pushing rate cuts to November or December [54][57] S&P 500 Outlook - RBC Capital Markets raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,250 from 5,730, reflecting a roughly flat return for the rest of the year [61] - Strategists are closely watching the tariff situation, with uncertainty surrounding its resolution potentially leading to market chop [63]

Industry Overview - The Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry is experiencing volatility in mortgage rates due to macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to earnings pressure in the near term [1] - The industry consists of mortgage REITs (mREITs) that invest in and originate mortgages and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), focusing on residential or commercial mortgage markets [3] - Agency securities, backed by the federal government, are considered safer investments, limiting credit risks for mREITs [3] Current Challenges - High interest rates and volatility in mortgage markets are causing slight decreases in tangible book values for agency mortgage REITs, although they have been more stable than in 2023 [4] - The central bank's decision to maintain steady interest rates, despite a previous cut of 100 basis points in 2024, is increasing earnings pressure for highly leveraged mREITs [5] - Many industry players are cutting dividends to levels that can be covered by earnings, potentially leading to capital outflows and further declines in book values [5] Investment Strategies - mREITs are adopting a conservative approach to investments, focusing on risk and liquidity management, which may impede portfolio growth and robust returns in the short term [6] - Despite lower mortgage rates compared to last year, the demand for purchase applications and refinancing is improving, indicating some latent market demand [7] Performance Metrics - The Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry ranks 162, placing it in the bottom 34% of 246 Zacks industries, indicating underperformance in the near term [8] - The industry's current-year earnings estimate has decreased by 6.5% over the last year, reflecting a negative earnings outlook [9] - Over the past year, the industry has gained 2.7%, underperforming the broader Zacks Finance sector's rise of 18.7% and the S&P 500's growth of 12.5% [11] Valuation - The industry is trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/BV) ratio of 1.00X, compared to the S&P 500's 8.42X, indicating a significant discount [14] - The Zacks Finance sector's trailing 12-month P/BV is 4.26X, further highlighting the industry's undervaluation [16] Company Highlights - **Annaly Capital Management (NLY)**: Focuses on prudent asset selection and capital allocation, with a diversified investment strategy that includes traditional Agency MBSs and non-agency assets. The company's 2025 earnings are estimated at $2.87 per share, reflecting a 6.3% year-over-year increase [19][22] - **Dynex Capital (DX)**: Engages in mortgage and consumer finance, with a focus on multi-family and commercial real estate loans. The company's 2025 earnings estimates are $1.97 per share, indicating a significant year-over-year jump of 662.9% [25][28] - **Ellington Financial (EFC)**: Invests in a diverse array of financial assets, including residential and commercial mortgage loans. The company's 2025 earnings estimates are $1.65 per share, showing a year-over-year growth of 13% [31][34]

Market Trends & Outlook - US lenders are forecasted to show increases in trading revenue, which is a key focus this earnings season [1] - Net interest income is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, offsetting seasonal declines in trading [2] - The environment has improved significantly since April, with recession odds for 2025 dropping from 65-70% to around 20%, and expectations shifting from close to four rate cuts to two [4] - Banks' guidance is expected to be stable or with a bias to the upside, as they were conservative in their adjustments a few months ago due to volatility [5] Investment Banking Performance - Investment banking results are expected to underperform, marking the 14th consecutive quarter where they contribute less than a quarter of industry revenues [7] - A typical global investment banking revenue pool consists of approximately 50% FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities), 25% equities trading, and 25% banking fees [8] - There is potential for improvement in equity fees and equity underwriting, especially with global equities indices hitting record highs [10] - While equity fees may improve, it will be tough to hit the high watermark seen a couple of years ago [10] Strategic Focus - Investors are focusing on the profitability of investment banking, as it is a capital-light business, rather than just revenue [9]

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - President Trump considered nominating a replacement for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell earlier than the typical transition period [1] - The concept of a "Shadow Fed Chair" is introduced as a way to potentially undermine the current Fed Chair's authority [2] - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Powell for not lowering interest rates as much as desired [6] - Trump suggested interest rates should be as low or lower than 1%, significantly below the current range of 425% to 450% [9] Potential Risks & Challenges - Creating a "Shadow Fed Chair" may not be effective and could confuse financial markets [9][10] - The "chair in waiting" could face challenges in expressing views that align with both the President and market expectations [10][11] - Disagreements about policy could undermine the credibility of the Fed [13][14] Nomination & Confirmation Process - The President nominates members to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, who are then confirmed by the Senate [4] - The Senate plays a crucial role in deciding whether a nominee has the right temperament to lead the Fed [19] - The confirmation process could be difficult, given the President's desire for someone who will align with his wishes [20] Potential Candidates - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor, was considered for Fed Chair in 2017 [15][16] - Kevin Hassett, former Director of Trump's National Economic Council, is another potential candidate [16] - Other potential candidates include Scott Bessent and Fed Governor Chris Waller [17]