M&A Activity & Market Outlook - M&A activity experienced a slow start in the first half of 2025, but July showed strength, suggesting a potential increase in the second half of the year [1][2] - Confidence in capital markets is growing, and the bid-ask gap has narrowed from approximately two points to about half a point, making deals more affordable and aligning buyer and seller expectations [4][5] - The industry anticipates two interest rate cuts (turns down) this year, fueling optimism in the market [7][12] Regulatory & Economic Factors - Deregulation, potentially influenced by the Trump administration, may be a tailwind for companies seeking consolidation [3] - The market is gaining confidence that interest rates will not return to levels seen three years prior, though a lower cost of capital is still desired [6] - The economic backdrop considered by EY includes expectations for inflation to remain flat or decrease and for GDP to increase slightly [12] Sector Focus - Technology is expected to remain a key sector for M&A activity for the next 5 years, driven by the race to acquire sophisticated AI technology for business modernization [8][9] - Oil and gas is experiencing a strong year and is expected to continue to see M&A activity [10] - Life sciences companies, with substantial cash reserves, are looking to build up their R&D pipelines through acquisitions [10] - There has been a surprising surge in media and entertainment deals this year [10]

Market Overview - Markets experienced a strong rebound, with the Dow gaining +585 points (+1.34%), S&P 500 up +91 points (+1.47%), Nasdaq increasing +403 points (+1.95%), and Russell 2000 rising +44 points (+2.05%) [1] Bond Market - Bond yields remained steady, with the 10-year yield at +4.20% and the 2-year yield at +3.69%, indicating a potential need for interest rate reductions [2] Economic Indicators - Factory Orders for June reported a decline of -4.8%, which was better than expected, following a record high increase of +8.3% in the previous month [3] Company Earnings - Palantir Technologies reported Q2 earnings of 16 cents per share, beating expectations, with revenues reaching $1.0 billion, surpassing the anticipated $938.3 million, marking a +68% growth in the U.S. market, +93% in commercial, and +53% in government sectors [4] - Palantir's revenue guidance for the next quarter is set at a low-end of $1.083 billion and $4.14 billion for the full year, exceeding previous estimates [5] - Hims & Hers Health reported earnings of 17 cents per share, missing consensus estimates, with revenues of $545 million falling short of the expected $553.2 million, leading to a -12% drop in after-market trading [6] - Vertex Pharmaceuticals saw a significant decline of -13.5% despite beating earnings estimates, due to the failure of a pain drug in Phase 2 testing and the resignation of CSO David Altshuler [7] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Anticipation builds for Q2 earnings reports from major companies including Caterpillar, McDonald's, Pfizer, and Amgen, with AMD and Rivian reporting after the market closes [8] Trade Deficit and Economic Data - The U.S. Trade Deficit is expected to improve to -$61.0 billion from -$75.5 billion, with S&P and ISM Services PMI expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [9]

Economic Indicators - Jobs data is a key factor influencing financial markets [1] - Inflation trends significantly impact market behavior [1] - Interest rates play a crucial role in shaping financial market dynamics [1] Market Trends - Stock market is experiencing a bull run [1] - Artificial intelligence is a relevant factor in the market [1] - Bitcoin's performance is noteworthy in the current market landscape [1]

Economic Statistics & Independence - The importance of believing in reliable statistics about unemployment, inflation, and GDP for managing business and the economy is highlighted [1] - Independent statistical agencies are crucial for collecting data, and maintaining confidence in their independence is paramount, with bipartisan agreement on this principle [1] - Undermining the credibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) can lead to concerns about inflation and erode confidence in the US dollar and the US economy [1] Political Influence & Economic Policy - Concerns are raised about the potential politicization of interest rates, fearing that rates might be lowered before elections to inflate the economy, leading to adverse consequences after the election [1] - Pressure on the Fed, as exerted by Donald Trump, is considered unconscionable because it undermines the Fed's credibility [1] - Historically, presidents have desired certain economic outcomes, such as lower interest rates, and have exerted pressure on Fed chairs [1]

President Trump said he has directed his team to fire the commissioner of labor statistics just hours after the agency issued a weak July jobs report. The report showed lower job growth than forecast adding 73,000 jobs in July. A slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.Hiring numbers for May and June were also significantly revised down showing that just 106,000 jobs were added in the past 3 months. Statisticians revised down how much growth we had in prior months by around a quarter of a million, wh ...

Investors probably don't expect huge gains from businesses that operate in a very mature industry like financial services. But JPMorgan Chase (JPM -1.17%) has shown that it can be a big winner. The massive bank has generated a total return of 252% in the past five years (as of July 28). Shares of this banking powerhouse have soared in recent years. It seems that every single quarter, JPMorgan Chase's latest numbers come in well ahead of Wall Street analyst estimates. This is exactly what happened in Q2, whi ...

Group 1 - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has recently met with President Trump at the White House, indicating a thaw in their previously strained relationship [1][4][5] - Dimon praised Trump's trade deal with Japan and suggested that interest rates could decrease if the economy continues to grow [2][4] - The meetings included discussions on the economy, trade, and financial regulations, with other officials such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick present [4][5] Group 2 - The relationship between Dimon and Trump had been tense, particularly after Dimon criticized Trump's refusal to concede the 2020 election [6][7] - Dimon has expressed willingness to collaborate with leaders from both political parties when it serves national interests [6] - Recent comments from Dimon regarding illegal immigration and support for Fed Chair Jerome Powell have caused friction with both the Biden administration and Trump [10]

Economic Outlook - The US economy is currently performing strongly [1] - Cutting interest rates could stimulate an even larger economic boom [1] Potential Benefits of Lower Interest Rates - Increased home affordability for more Americans [1] - Greater investment in R&D by American businesses [1] - Improved portfolio performance for American investors [1] Recommendation - Industry suggests creating conditions for a historic economic boom by fully leveraging economic opportunities [1]

Market Overview - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep interest rates steady at +4.25-4.50% during its five meetings in 2025, acknowledging moderated growth but stable unemployment and labor market conditions [2][4] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that tariffs are beginning to impact inflation metrics, with the latest CPI Inflation Rate rising to +2.7% [5][4] - Market indexes experienced declines following Powell's statements, although the Nasdaq managed a slight gain of +0.15% by the close [1][6] Company Earnings Reports - Microsoft reported fiscal Q4 earnings of $3.65 per share, exceeding expectations by $0.30, with revenues of $76.4 billion, up +18% year over year, driven by a +39% increase in its Azure cloud business [6] - Meta Platforms significantly surpassed earnings projections with $7.14 per share against an anticipated $5.83, and revenues of $47.52 billion, up from $44.84 billion, with a +6% increase in Daily Active People to 3.48 billion [7] - Ford Motor Co. reported Q2 earnings per share of $0.37, exceeding estimates, with revenues over $50 billion, but shares fell due to $800 million in costs attributed to direct tariff exposure [9] - Qualcomm's fiscal Q3 earnings were $2.77 per share, beating expectations by $0.07, but revenues of $10.37 billion slightly missed the forecast, leading to a -4.6% drop in shares [10]

Hi, Chair Pal. Uh, Nancy Marshall Gendzer with Marketplace. Um, one more question on the, uh, lack of unonymity in today's decision, the two descents.Was there talk during the meeting, I know you're not going to talk about what exactly what individuals said, but in general, was there talk during the meeting of cutting rates and what was the case against that at the meeting. >> Sure. So you know we have we have an economic goaround where people talk about the economy and then the next and today that's yester ...