Group 1 - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD increased by 45 points to 7.1063, marking the highest appreciation since November 6, 2024 [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 88.7%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 11.3% [4] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in October is 5.5%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 49% and a 50 basis point cut at 45.5% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate reflect a combination of global economic uncertainties, domestic economic data volatility, and complex international trade dynamics [4][5]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The official midpoint rate for RMB against USD was reported at 7.1321, while the onshore RMB fell below 7.18, reaching 7.1802, and the offshore RMB was at 7.1828 [2]. - The decline in the onshore RMB by 32 basis points and the offshore RMB by 8 basis points indicates a cautious market sentiment, with investors closely monitoring economic data and policy developments [5]. Group 2: Impact on Trade and Businesses - For export companies, a weaker RMB can enhance competitiveness as foreign clients can purchase more Chinese goods for fewer dollars, potentially boosting sales [8]. - Conversely, import companies face increased costs as they need to spend more RMB to acquire USD for payments, raising operational expenses [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Future exchange rate movements are influenced by key indicators such as the People's Bank of China's monetary policy, significant domestic and international economic data releases, and changes in international trade patterns [9]. - Investors are advised to focus on scientific asset allocation and risk diversification rather than attempting to predict exchange rate fluctuations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The central point of the article is the adjustment of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar (USD), with the mid-price reported at 7.1161, reflecting an increase of 160 points from the previous trading day's mid-price of 7.1321 [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Exchange Rate Movement** - The CNY mid-price against the USD is reported at 7.1161, which is an increase of 160 points from the previous day's mid-price of 7.1321 [1]. - The official closing price from the previous trading day was 7.1805, and the night session closing price was 7.1666 [1].

Group 1 - The central bank of China adjusted the RMB to USD exchange rate to 7.1287, an increase of 97 points [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes indicate a consensus to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% [4] - Economic activity growth has slowed in the first half of the year, with inflation remaining slightly elevated and high uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [4] Group 3 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 81.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 18.1% [5] - In October, the probability of maintaining the rate is 8%, with cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point cut at 46.4% and a 50 basis point cut at 45.5% [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of the foreign exchange revenue and expenditure data for the first half of 2025 by the State Council Information Office, highlighting a 1.9% appreciation of the RMB against the USD [1] Group 2 - The press conference was held on July 22, where the Deputy Director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Li Bin, provided insights into the currency exchange trends [1] - The report indicates a positive trend in the RMB's performance against the USD, which may influence market sentiment and investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - The central exchange rate of the Renminbi against the US dollar is reported at 7.1876, which represents a depreciation of 6 basis points compared to the previous trading day [1] - The People's Bank of China has authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to publish the exchange rates for various currencies against the Renminbi, including 1 Euro at 7.5235, 100 Japanese Yen at 4.6171, and 1 British Pound at 9.0630 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan's central parity against the US dollar was set at 7.1345 on August 7, reflecting an increase of 64 basis points from the previous trading day's rate of 7.1409 [1] Exchange Rate Summary - The onshore yuan closed at 7.1900 at 16:30 on the same day [1] - The night session saw the yuan trading at 7.1836 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the RMB/USD exchange rate is attributed to various factors, including the impact of tariff policies, the performance of the US dollar index, and the ongoing trade negotiations between China and the US [2][3][6]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of July 31, the onshore and offshore RMB/USD exchange rates were reported at 7.193 and 7.2019, respectively, marking a continuous decline over five days and a cumulative drop of 0.38% for July [2]. - The RMB/USD central parity rate also fell to 7.1494, deviating significantly from market expectations, indicating a stronger than anticipated market response [2]. Trade Negotiations Impact - The recent US-China trade negotiations have not exceeded market expectations, contributing to the depreciation of the RMB. The lack of concrete outcomes from the talks has led to a weaker market sentiment [3][6]. - The extension of the existing tariff measures for 90 days was the only confirmed outcome from the negotiations, which did not provide the market with the anticipated clarity [6][7]. Economic Factors - The US dollar index has reached a two-month high, which has been a significant factor in the RMB's decline. The stability of the US economy and the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates have supported the dollar [9][10]. - China's economic fundamentals, including trade surplus and consumer demand, are also influencing the RMB's performance. However, concerns about insufficient domestic demand persist [7][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB/USD exchange rate may rise to 7.1 in the next three to six months, driven by expectations of a resolution in trade negotiations and continued strong export performance [4][13]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate could reach 7.10 and 7.00 in the next three to six months, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook [5][13]. External Influences - The ongoing strength of the US dollar and the potential for future Fed rate cuts are expected to play crucial roles in shaping the RMB's exchange rate dynamics [10][14]. - The recent data indicates that China's import and export scale remains robust, with significant growth in foreign currency deposits, suggesting a stable liquidity environment for the RMB [14].

人民币兑美元中间价报7.1511，下调44点；上一交易日中间价7.1467，上一交易日官方收盘价7.1729， 上日夜盘报收7.1787。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1768 against the US dollar, marking a decrease of 2 points from the previous trading day [1] Summary by Category - Currency Performance - The onshore yuan experienced a decline against the US dollar, closing at 7.1768 [1]