Group 1 - The central bank of China has set the RMB to USD central parity rate at 7.0051, marking an increase of 27 points and reaching the highest level since May 18, 2023 [2][5] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 95%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 5% [3][7] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 20.7%, with a 78.4% chance of maintaining the current rate, and a mere 0.9% chance of a 50 basis point cut [3][7]

1月15日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0064，上调56点。升值至2023年5月18日以来最高！ 越来越多期权投资者押注 美联储今年一整年都将维持利率不变 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为95% CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降 息25个基点的概率为26%，维持利率不变的概率为72.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.2%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 专注于期权的交易员正在逐步排除美联储年内降息的预期，转而将投注转向美联储全年维持利率不变的 情景。这一主题至少从上周五开始浮现。当时最新的美国就业数据显示，失业率意外走低。按市场定价 衡量，这几乎抹去了美联储在本月政策会议上降息的可能性，也促使越来越多的交易员把对降息时间的 预期进一步向后推迟。劳动力市场趋于稳定，使得决策者去年实施了三次、每次25个基点的降息 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月15日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0064，上调56点。升值至2023年5月18日以来最高！ 越来越多期权投资者押注 美联储今年一整年都将维持利率不变 专注于期权的交易员正在逐步排除美联储年内降息的预期，转而将投注转向美联储全年维持利率不变的 情景。这一主题至少从上周五开始浮现。当时最新的美国就业数据显示，失业率意外走低。按市场定价 衡量，这几乎抹去了美联储在本月政策会议上降息的可能性，也促使越来越多的交易员把对降息时间的 预期进一步向后推迟。劳动力市场趋于稳定，使得决策者去年实施了三次、每次25个基点的降息之后， 没有太多继续降息的理由，尤其是在通胀仍高于美联储目标的情况下。 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为95% CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降 息25个基点的概率为26%，维持利率不变的概率为72.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.2%。 责任编辑：郭建 CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降 息25个基点的 ...

Group 1 - The central bank of China set the RMB to USD central parity rate at 7.0197, a decrease of 10 points [2][6] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 88.4% [3][8] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 11.6% [3][8] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 40.3%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 55.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 4.3% [3][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is nearing the point of stopping interest rate cuts, with a focus on balancing concerns between a slowing labor market and persistent inflation [3][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed is close to a "neutral" policy stance and requires more data to determine whether inflation or the labor market is more concerning [3][8]. - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 81.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 18.3% [3][8]. - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 43.2%, with a 49.6% chance of maintaining rates, and a 7.2% chance of a 50 basis point cut [3][8]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate - As of January 6, the RMB to USD central parity rate is reported at 7.0173, reflecting an increase of 57 points [2][6].

Group 1 - The central bank of China has adjusted the RMB to USD midpoint rate to 7.0230, marking an increase of 58 points and reaching the highest level since September 30, 2024 [1] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 82.8%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is 17.2% [3] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 44.1%, with a 48.9% chance of maintaining the current rate, and a 7.0% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [3]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has risen above 6.97 against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since May 2023 [1] Group 1 - The offshore RMB exchange rate has shown significant appreciation, indicating a strengthening of the currency [1] - This rise in the RMB value may reflect broader economic trends and investor sentiment towards the Chinese economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the US dollar, breaking the 6.97 mark and reaching a high of 6.9678, the highest level since May 2023 [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - The USD/CNH exchange rate showed a slight decrease, with the current rate at 6.9736, down by 0.09% from the previous close of 6.9799 [2]. - The exchange rate has experienced a decline of 0.85% over the past 10 days and 2.43% over the past 60 days, indicating a trend of depreciation of the US dollar against the offshore RMB [2]. - The moving averages indicate a downward trend, with the 5-day MA at 6.9835, 10-day MA at 6.9981, and 20-day MA at 7.0232 [2].

Group 1 - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar was reported at 6.9922, an increase of 49 points compared to the previous trading day [1] - The trading range for the day was between 7.0025 and 6.9810 [1]

Group 1 - The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is reported at 7.0331, an increase of 27 points, marking the highest appreciation since September 30, 2024 [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year is 81.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 18.8% [5] - By March next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 46.9%, with a 44.7% chance of maintaining rates, and an 8.5% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [5]