（原标题：人民币兑美元中间价上调20个基点后，已升破7.07） 据中国外汇交易中心网站消息，12月10日，当日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币 7.0753元，相较前一日中间价7.0773元，调升20个基点。 截至上午10点05分，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元的汇率分别为7.0622、7.0615。 ...

"哎，今天美元又换多少人民币？我朋友说要换点美金给孩子交学费，结果拖了几天，汇率又变了！"这话最近在不少家长、海淘族甚至做外贸的小老板嘴里 都能听到。确实，年底这会儿，人民币兑美元的汇率就像天气一样，看着平静，其实暗流涌动。12月9日这天，一美元兑人民币中间价是7.0764，波动不 大，但背后的故事可不少。 普通人该怎么应对？ 如果你只是偶尔换点美元旅游、留学，其实不用太纠结这几天的波动。7.07和7.05，差不了几百块，真没必要天天盯盘。但如果你手头有大额外汇需求，比 如几十万美金的货款，那可以分批操作，别一次性全换了。另外，与其赌汇率，不如把精力放在主业上——毕竟，赚美元的能力，比省那点汇差重要得多。 外资为啥又开始买人民币资产？ 你可能不知道，11月境外机构一口气买了800多亿的人民币债券，北向资金也连续流入。这不是瞎投，而是人家看中了咱们经济的底子。制造业PMI重回扩 张区间，说明工厂又忙起来了；出口增长超预期，说明东西还是卖得动。这些实实在在的数据，比啥口号都有说服力。说白了，钱往哪儿跑，就说明哪儿有 希望。 别看现在汇率稳，但眼睛还得盯着大洋彼岸。12月12号，老美要公布CPI数据，这直接关系到他 ...

汇率为什么总给人忽上忽下的感觉很多人看汇率，就像看天气。昨天晴天，今天突然阴了，一会儿看着还行，一会儿又跳了几格。其实它背后都是有节奏 的。有人形容过，汇率像个脾气敏感的朋友，你一句话不对，它就要变变脸。但这并不是它在"发脾气"，而是市场在不断把各方的信息揉在一起，最后呈现 出来的数字。 今天咱们就先聊一句很多人都会问的问题。早上刷手机的时候，你是不是也会看到汇率数字跳来跳去，然后心里嘀咕一句，这玩意到底是啥逻辑？别担心， 今天换个更接地气的方式，把人民币兑美元的情况说得明明白白。 人民币走强的阶段性规律如果把这一年的走势放在一起看，会发现它并不是一条直线往上冲。有段时间像慢慢往前挪，有段时间突然一下子就突破了关键点 位。其实这就像跑步，有时候你慢跑，有时候突然加速，而整体方向大体一致。 比如前面的几个月，有时候属于市场推你走，有时候属于你自己靠实力往上顶。到了十一月之后，很多人都能明显感觉到人民币更有劲了，像突然打开了加 速档。 像现在人民币兑美元在七点零七附近，很多人第一反应是，怎么又强了？这种数字本身不说明好或坏，但它反映的，是市场觉得人民币更有"存在感"。 人民币为什么会走强这个事不能只看一个点，要像 ...

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为89.2%，维持利率不变的概率为10.8%。美联 储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为66.6%，维持利率不变的概率为7.7%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为25.7%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为89.2% 12月3日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0754，上调40点。升值至2024年10月14日以来最高。 ...

Group 1 - The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is reported at 7.0794, reflecting a decrease of 35 points [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 87.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 12.4% [4] - The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by January next year is 69.3%, with a 9.3% chance of no change, and a 21.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [4]

Group 1 - The central bank of China has adjusted the RMB to USD exchange rate to 7.0759, marking a 30-point increase and reaching the highest level since October 14, 2024 [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is at 87.4%, with a 12.6% chance of maintaining the current rate [4] - Goldman Sachs indicates that the Federal Reserve is almost certain to lower rates in the upcoming December meeting, with market pricing for a 25 basis point cut reaching approximately 85%-86% [5] - Key factors influencing the Fed's decision include a weakening job market and the need for policy risk management, with no significant data expected to alter this direction [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility of the RMB against the USD is influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. monetary policy, domestic economic recovery, and global risk sentiment. The RMB is expected to maintain a stable range in the near term, with potential fluctuations based on these influences [1][3][7]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of November 25, 2025, the RMB to USD central parity rate is reported at 7.0847, an increase of 28 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating the central bank's intention to stabilize the exchange rate [1]. - The RMB has experienced significant fluctuations over the past year, with a low of 7.25 in 2024 due to a strong USD and tightening U.S. trade policies, followed by a rapid appreciation to around 7.00 due to rising risk aversion [3]. - In 2025, the RMB's exchange rate fluctuated between a "policy floor" and a "market ceiling," with a cumulative appreciation of 0.93% for the year, reflecting a narrowing volatility range compared to previous years [3][4]. Influencing Factors - U.S. monetary policy remains a critical factor, with market predictions suggesting a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which could exert downward pressure on the USD and influence the RMB [3][4]. - The pace of domestic economic recovery is also crucial, as China's GDP growth met expectations in Q3, but consumption and export recovery remain incomplete, with capital flows facing pressure [4]. - Global risk sentiment, particularly due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has increased demand for USD as a safe haven, putting additional pressure on non-USD currencies, including the RMB [4][6]. Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a range between 7.05 and 7.15 by the end of 2025, with the strength of the USD and the pace of domestic economic recovery being the primary influencing factors [6]. - If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as anticipated and the domestic economy continues to recover steadily, the RMB could potentially return to around 6.98 in 2026 [6]. - Investors should remain vigilant regarding exchange rate fluctuations, as unexpected events, such as changes in the Middle East situation or global economic uncertainties, could lead to short-term volatility [6][7].

Core Points - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar was reported at 7.1262, showing a decline of 49 points compared to the previous trading day [1] - The trading range for the day was between 7.1212 and 7.1274 [1]

Group 1 - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD is reported at 7.0865, an increase of 36 points [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 37.5% [4] - The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by January next year is 54.8%, with a 25.9% chance of keeping rates unchanged and a 19.4% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [4]

Group 1 - The central bank of China has raised the RMB to USD midpoint rate by 13 points to 7.0843, marking the highest appreciation since October 15, 2024 [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 0.5% [4] - The cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by December is 91.6% [4]