1月15日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0064，上调56点。升值至2023年5月18日以来最高！ 越来越多期权投资者押注 美联储今年一整年都将维持利率不变 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为95% CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降 息25个基点的概率为26%，维持利率不变的概率为72.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.2%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 专注于期权的交易员正在逐步排除美联储年内降息的预期，转而将投注转向美联储全年维持利率不变的 情景。这一主题至少从上周五开始浮现。当时最新的美国就业数据显示，失业率意外走低。按市场定价 衡量，这几乎抹去了美联储在本月政策会议上降息的可能性，也促使越来越多的交易员把对降息时间的 预期进一步向后推迟。劳动力市场趋于稳定，使得决策者去年实施了三次、每次25个基点的降息 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月15日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0064，上调56点。升值至2023年5月18日以来最高！ 越来越多期权投资者押注 美联储今年一整年都将维持利率不变 专注于期权的交易员正在逐步排除美联储年内降息的预期，转而将投注转向美联储全年维持利率不变的 情景。这一主题至少从上周五开始浮现。当时最新的美国就业数据显示，失业率意外走低。按市场定价 衡量，这几乎抹去了美联储在本月政策会议上降息的可能性，也促使越来越多的交易员把对降息时间的 预期进一步向后推迟。劳动力市场趋于稳定，使得决策者去年实施了三次、每次25个基点的降息之后， 没有太多继续降息的理由，尤其是在通胀仍高于美联储目标的情况下。 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为95% CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降 息25个基点的概率为26%，维持利率不变的概率为72.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.2%。 责任编辑：郭建 CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月累计降 息25个基点的 ...

Group 1 - The central bank of China set the RMB to USD central parity rate at 7.0197, a decrease of 10 points [2][6] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 88.4% [3][8] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 11.6% [3][8] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 40.3%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 55.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 4.3% [3][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is nearing the point of stopping interest rate cuts, with a focus on balancing concerns between a slowing labor market and persistent inflation [3][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed is close to a "neutral" policy stance and requires more data to determine whether inflation or the labor market is more concerning [3][8]. - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 81.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 18.3% [3][8]. - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 43.2%, with a 49.6% chance of maintaining rates, and a 7.2% chance of a 50 basis point cut [3][8]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate - As of January 6, the RMB to USD central parity rate is reported at 7.0173, reflecting an increase of 57 points [2][6].

Group 1 - The central bank of China has adjusted the RMB to USD midpoint rate to 7.0230, marking an increase of 58 points and reaching the highest level since September 30, 2024 [1] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 82.8%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is 17.2% [3] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 44.1%, with a 48.9% chance of maintaining the current rate, and a 7.0% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [3]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has risen above 6.97 against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since May 2023 [1] Group 1 - The offshore RMB exchange rate has shown significant appreciation, indicating a strengthening of the currency [1] - This rise in the RMB value may reflect broader economic trends and investor sentiment towards the Chinese economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the US dollar, breaking the 6.97 mark and reaching a high of 6.9678, the highest level since May 2023 [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - The USD/CNH exchange rate showed a slight decrease, with the current rate at 6.9736, down by 0.09% from the previous close of 6.9799 [2]. - The exchange rate has experienced a decline of 0.85% over the past 10 days and 2.43% over the past 60 days, indicating a trend of depreciation of the US dollar against the offshore RMB [2]. - The moving averages indicate a downward trend, with the 5-day MA at 6.9835, 10-day MA at 6.9981, and 20-day MA at 7.0232 [2].

Group 1 - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar was reported at 6.9922, an increase of 49 points compared to the previous trading day [1] - The trading range for the day was between 7.0025 and 6.9810 [1]

Group 1 - The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is reported at 7.0331, an increase of 27 points, marking the highest appreciation since September 30, 2024 [2] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year is 81.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 18.8% [5] - By March next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 46.9%, with a 44.7% chance of maintaining rates, and an 8.5% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [5]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar closed at 7.0045, reflecting a decline of 28 points from the previous trading day, while showing an overall increase of 297 points or 0.42% for the week [1]. Summary by Categories - **Currency Performance** - The offshore yuan (CNH) closed at 7.0045 against the US dollar, down by 28 points from Thursday's New York close [1]. - For the week, the offshore yuan has appreciated by 297 points, representing a 0.42% increase [1].