据央视新闻报道，当地时间29日，美国总统特朗普称，已完全摧毁伊朗三处核设施，那里"现 在只有几千吨岩石"。同一天，美国防部指责媒体关于袭击效果有限的报道是"假新闻"。 截至目前， 与伊朗核能力有关的伊核设施受损情况、是否转移浓缩铀，各方表态仍不统一。 而伊朗方面29日接连做出应对冲突的强硬表态。 同一天，据央视新闻消息，《华盛顿邮报》援引四名熟悉美国政府内部机密情报的人士话说， 美国截获了伊朗高级官员之间的通信，内容涉及本月美国对伊朗核计划的军事打击，伊朗官员 表示此次袭击的破坏力没有他们预期的那么大。 知情人士透露，此次通话本是私下进行，伊朗政府官员在猜测，为何美方的袭击没有像他们预 期的那样具有破坏性和广泛性。 伊核设施受损情况各方表态仍不统一 特朗普：已完全摧毁伊朗三处核设施 当地时间6月29日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国对伊朗福尔多核设施的袭击完全摧毁了目标地 点。 特朗普说，"现在那个地方只有几千吨的岩石，整个地方被摧毁了 ，伊朗另外两个核设 施也被摧毁了"。 特朗普称，以色列对伊朗核设施造成了破坏，但美国造成了最后的破坏。 特朗普否认伊朗在美国发起袭击前将任何东西进行了转移。 情报显示伊朗官员认为破 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the recent military actions by the United States against Iran's nuclear facilities, with President Trump claiming complete destruction of three sites [1][3] - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Grossi indicates that despite damage, Iran retains the capability to produce enriched uranium within months [2][8] - The U.S. Department of Defense refutes media reports suggesting limited damage from the attacks, labeling them as "fake news" [7] Group 1: U.S. Actions and Claims - President Trump asserts that the U.S. has completely destroyed three Iranian nuclear facilities, leaving only "thousands of tons of rock" at the sites [1][3] - Trump denies that Iran had the opportunity to transfer any materials before the U.S. strikes, emphasizing the surprise nature of the attacks [3] - The U.S. military's involvement included B-2 bombers, with pilots expected to visit the White House following the operations [3] Group 2: Iran's Response and Capabilities - Grossi states that while Iranian nuclear facilities were significantly damaged, they are not completely destroyed, and Iran can resume uranium enrichment in a few months [2][8] - Iranian officials reportedly expressed skepticism about the extent of damage from U.S. attacks, indicating that the impact was less than anticipated [7] - Iran's leadership maintains a strong stance against the U.S. and Israel, asserting readiness to respond to any further aggression [10] Group 3: International Reactions - French President Macron calls for adherence to ceasefire agreements and urges Iran to return to negotiations regarding its nuclear program [8] - Macron emphasizes the importance of maintaining the framework of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the role of the IAEA in monitoring Iran's nuclear activities [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex history and ongoing political dynamics surrounding Iran's nuclear program, highlighting the role of the United States and Israel in shaping the situation, and the implications for regional stability and international relations [1][12]. Group 1: Historical Context - The U.S. initially supported Iran's nuclear capabilities in the 1950s, providing technology and training, which laid the groundwork for the current nuclear issue [4][6]. - The 1979 Islamic Revolution led to a shift in Iran's nuclear ambitions, with the new regime viewing nuclear technology as a symbol of Western influence [5][6]. - After the Iran-Iraq War, Iran sought to revive its nuclear program, recognizing the need for military deterrence [6][8]. Group 2: Key Events and Developments - The exposure of Iran's nuclear facilities in 2002 marked a turning point, leading to increased scrutiny and tensions between Iran and the international community [6][7]. - The 2005 resumption of uranium enrichment by Iran, despite international pressure, escalated the situation, resulting in UN sanctions [8][9]. - The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was a significant diplomatic achievement, temporarily easing sanctions in exchange for limitations on Iran's nuclear program [10][11]. Group 3: Recent Tensions and Developments - The U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 under the Trump administration reignited tensions, leading to a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran [12][13]. - Recent military actions by the U.S. against Iranian nuclear facilities have further complicated the situation, raising concerns about regional stability [12][13]. - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, particularly in the context of proxy battles, continues to influence the dynamics of the nuclear issue [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is intensifying diplomatic efforts to bring Iran back to the negotiating table regarding the nuclear issue, despite recent military confrontations between Iran and Israel [1] Group 1: Diplomatic Efforts - Key figures from the U.S. and the Middle East are engaged in secret negotiations with Iran [1] - Negotiations are ongoing following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran [1] Group 2: Proposals and Conditions - The Trump administration has presented several proposals to Iran, which are still in preliminary stages and subject to refinement [1] - A critical condition set by the U.S. is that Iran must not engage in uranium enrichment activities [1] - At least one preliminary proposal includes multiple incentives for Iran [1]

继本轮伊以冲突24日暂告段落已经过去约3天，在26日下午，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊再次发表视频讲话，明确表示伊朗在此前的冲突中"战胜"美国与以 色列，并"狠狠地给了美国一记耳光"。 美以方面则在持续鼓吹冲突期间对伊朗核设施的打击成果。 但截至目前，与伊朗当前核能力有关的伊核设施受损情况、伊朗是否转移浓缩铀，各方表态仍不统一，"罗生门"频出。 冲突以来第三次公开讲话 哈梅内伊称伊朗"战胜"美以 自6月13日以色列对伊朗发动大规模袭击后，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊多次发表电视讲话，26日下午的这场讲话已经是第三次。 哈梅内伊在讲话中主要明确了三点内容，即： 祝贺伊朗"战胜"以色列 哈梅内伊表示，伊朗的军队"突破对方先进的多层防御"成功打击以色列，让其"付出惨重代价"。 祝贺伊朗"战胜"美国 哈梅内伊表示，在冲突中，伊朗同样取得了针对美国的胜利，并狠狠地给了美国一记耳光，即对美军驻卡塔尔乌代德空军基地发动袭击并造成破坏。 强调伊朗国内团结，坚持对美抵抗 哈梅内伊同时向伊朗民族的团结表示祝贺，并批评美国尝试使用各种理由让伊朗屈服，而伊朗坚持抵抗。 哈梅内伊说："美国就与伊朗持续对抗，每次都会搬出不同借口，时而人权问题，时而为捍 ...

美国总统特朗普25日在荷兰海牙出席北约峰会后举行记者会，称美国与伊朗下周将举行会谈，并可能签署一项协议。 截至目前，伊朗对此尚未作出回应。同一天，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，美国和以色列的袭击增强了伊朗推进核计划的决心。 特朗普：美国将于下周与伊朗会谈 特朗普25日称，美国将在下周与伊朗进行会谈，也许会签署一项协议，但他没有透露会谈的地点和参与人员等细节。特朗普同时称，他认为这项协议并 非"必要"，但美方核心诉求依然是不允许伊朗拥有核武器。 25日，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表示，伊朗核设施因遭到以美多次袭击被"严重破坏"。 伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬25日在与埃及总统塞西通话时表示，伊朗支持建立无核武器和无大规模杀伤性武器区。近日，在与阿联酋总统通话时，佩泽希齐扬还表 示，伊朗愿意在国际框架内通过谈判解决问题，希望阿联酋在与美国的互动中明确表示，伊朗只追求其合法权利，伊朗从未寻求过核武器，也永远不会。 专家解读：美伊能否达成协议仍然未知 据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社25日报道，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在接受媒体采访时说，美国和以色列的袭击增强了伊朗推进核计划的决心，伊朗没有人愿意放弃这项技 术。 针对美伊未来可能展开的会谈，中国现代国际关系 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the missile attack by Iran on the US military base in Qatar, which was described as a response to US actions against Iranian nuclear facilities [2] - Iran's military stated that the number of missiles used in the attack matched the number of bombs used by the US in their previous strikes on Iranian nuclear sites [2] - The US military base in Qatar, Al Udeid Air Base, is noted as the largest US military base in the Middle East [3] Group 2 - President Trump claimed that Iran warned the US before launching the missile attack, stating that all 14 missiles were intercepted successfully [1] - Trump expressed confidence that the military conflict between Israel and Iran had ended, but also acknowledged the possibility of future escalations [1] - Trump denied any movement of materials from Iranian nuclear facilities, asserting that the equipment was too heavy and dangerous to relocate [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is "偏强运行" (Relatively strong operation) [1] 2. Core View - The lead market is expected to operate relatively strongly, with a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,190 yuan/ton, up 1.36% from the previous day, and the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,012 dollars/ton, up 0.25% [1] - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 56,352 lots, an increase of 23,555 lots, and the open interest was 48,344 lots, an increase of 4,060 lots. The trading volume of LME lead was 8,788 lots, an increase of 3,488 lots, and the open interest was 152,973 lots, a decrease of 51 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -23.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.5 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead futures inventory was 44,667 tons, an increase of 427 tons, and LME lead inventory was 275,250 tons, a decrease of 2,125 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 70,900 tons, a decrease of 2,125 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton, and the price of recycled refined lead was 16,875 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -361 yuan/ton, an increase of 128 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - Trump stated that the conflict between Israel and Iran might break out again soon, the cease - fire progress was "very smooth", the US would not tolerate Iran's continued nuclear activities, and the US would hold talks with Iran next week, hinting at possible adjustments to sanctions [1] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 1, with the range of trend intensity being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1]

Group 1 - The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have shifted focus back to Gaza after a ceasefire with Iran, aiming to rescue hostages and end Hamas's control in the region [1] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is fragile and does not directly impact the situation in Gaza, indicating ongoing instability in the Middle East [1][4] - The underlying issues, particularly the Iranian nuclear problem, remain unresolved, leading to uncertainty about future agreements between the US and Iran [1] Group 2 - Despite deep-seated conflicts, Israel does not aim for the complete destruction of Iran, nor does Iran seek to annihilate Israel, but the situation in Gaza is different as Israel is determined to eliminate Hamas [2] - The security structure in the Middle East is changing, with Israel displaying military strength and moving towards a dominant position, leading to a potential imbalance and increased instability in the region [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, the underlying issue of Iran's nuclear program remains unresolved, and the duration of the ceasefire is uncertain [1] - Both Iran and Israel have suffered significant losses during the recent conflict, making prolonged warfare unsustainable, and the U.S. is also reluctant to engage further, leading to a temporary ceasefire as a pragmatic choice for all parties involved [1][2] - The U.S. has lost credibility in negotiations with Iran due to its inconsistent approach, complicating future talks regarding Iran's nuclear program [1] Group 2 - Diplomatic negotiations are deemed the only viable solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, as military actions have not resolved the core problems, including the handling of Iran's nuclear materials and the verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency [2] - There is a significant uncertainty regarding the potential for successful negotiations, as previous rounds have not yielded results, and the future of the ceasefire hinges on reaching a compromise [2] - If negotiations fail, Israel may resort to military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, potentially leading to increased instability in the Middle East [3]