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智通财经APP获悉，美联储理事沃勒周一表示，随着近期抛售冲击加密资产，特朗普当选后曾提振市场 的乐观情绪正在消退。沃勒称，近期的剧烈波动与监管不确定性以及大型金融机构的风险管理调整有 关。 期权市场同样偏谨慎。比特币隐含波动率已从上周四的约83%回落至目前的60%左右，表明对短期大幅 波动的预期降温，但25-delta看涨/看跌偏度仍明显向看跌期权倾斜，显示对下行保护的需求居高不下。 业内人士指出，杠杆影响减弱有助于降低波动并稳定价格，但也意味着不少投资者选择在较低水平止盈 或止损，转为观望甚至暂时离场。 宏观层面的不确定性进一步强化了谨慎情绪。市场参与者正面临密集的潜在"扰动源"，包括日本政局变 化、贵金属价格波动，以及围绕AI主题的美股行情是否可持续等。在多重风险交织之下，分析人士认 为，当前由空头情绪主导的市场更可能进入震荡整固，而非迅速反转上行。 在市场层面，比特币已较10月高点回落逾40%。上周比特币一度跌至6.0033万美元，创下自2024年10月 以来新低，并触发自FTX于2022年倒闭以来最大的一次波动率飙升。尽管随后反弹至约7万美元附近， 衍生品市场仍持续释放谨慎信号。 数据显示，比特币永续 ...

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Core Insights - Coinbase's crypto collateral lending product has experienced its highest liquidation scale since launch amid significant declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices this week [1] Summary by Categories Liquidation Scale - Over the past 7 days, cumulative liquidation losses reached approximately $170 million, with a single-day liquidation amount of about $90.7 million on Thursday [1] - Around 2,000 users had their collateral assets liquidated during this period [1] DeFi Platform Involvement - The related loans were executed through the DeFi platform Morpho, which operates under a default over-collateralization model [1] Potential Risks - If the collateral assets were to decline by an additional 50%, the potential liquidation scale could reach up to $600 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT) companies are transitioning from market boosters to potential systemic risk sources due to significant declines in cryptocurrency prices, leading to forced sell-offs and market sentiment repercussions [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The business logic of DAT companies revolves around accumulating specific cryptocurrencies to achieve stock premiums above net asset values in secondary markets [1] - Following the severe market sell-off post-FTX collapse, the narrative supporting DAT companies is showing cracks, with some firms potentially forced to sell their crypto assets [1] - Bitcoin has dropped nearly 50% since reaching a high of $126,000 in October last year, contributing to a $2 trillion evaporation in the overall crypto market capitalization [1] Group 2: Survival Strategies - For DAT companies lacking revenue and tangible business operations, the current market retreat poses a survival threat, likened to a "Hotel California" scenario where they can enter but cannot exit without market disruption [2] - Some DAT companies may survive as "zombie companies" by leveraging token collateral financing, small asset sales, or options strategies to generate cash flow [2] - Examples of DAT companies selling tokens include Ethzilla Corp. selling $74.5 million in Ethereum and FG Nexus disclosing the sale of nearly 11,000 Ethereum for stock buybacks [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - The broader market threat is not just from direct sell-off pressure but from "narrative contagion," where announcements of asset sales to maintain operations could shatter the investment logic of these companies as long-term holders [3] - In the past year, the median stock decline for 150 large DAT companies reached 62%, surpassing Bitcoin's decline, with many companies' stock prices falling below the value of their held crypto assets [3] - Companies like Enlivex Therapeutics, Twenty One Capital, and Evernorth Holdings face the highest risks due to their holdings in illiquid tokens [3] Group 4: Survival Probability - Companies like Trump Media Technology Group and BitMine Immersion Technologies are considered to have a medium to high probability of survival due to their holdings in Bitcoin and Cronos tokens [4] - The "Hotel California" trading scenario is undergoing a reality pressure test, with the weakest companies facing significant challenges [4]

来源：市场资讯 CMC 数据显示，近 30 日加密市场总市值持续下行，当前约为 2.25 万亿美元。自 2026 年 1 月 14 日以 来，加密市场在过去 22 天内平均每日下跌约 450 亿美元，总市值蒸发已超过 1 万亿美元。 （来源：吴说） ...

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