美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 12月12日，杰富瑞量化策略师Shrikant Kale表示，日本股市在2026年前景具有强劲吸引力，因为东京证 券交易所推动的自下而上的企业改革，与自上而下的、促进增长的政治领导力相互叠加。 责任编辑：栎树 他表示，日本央行应该推进货币政策正常化，但对美国经济的担忧可能会提升对美联储放松政策的预 期，从而对日元形成上行压力。Kale预计，受盈利增长推动，2026年日本东证指数（Topix）将有13% 的上涨空间。他说："尽管市场追逐AI主题，但在高昂预期之下，我们认为盈利存在风险。" ...

贝莱德认为，9月就业报告及其他相关数据表明，美国劳动力市场正处于"不招聘、不裁员"的停滞状 态。自年初以来，美国就业增长已经放缓，劳动力需求与供给双双下降，其中供给端下滑主要源于移民 数量的急剧放缓。维持失业率稳定所需的就业增长"盈亏平衡"水平也因此下降。这也能解释为什么工资 增长依然稳健，以及今年失业率只是小幅上升且仍处于历史低位。 贝莱德智库最新一期文章称，由于美国政府长期停摆导致数据发布延迟，美联储对经济形势的判断难度 加大。美联储担忧劳动力市场可能进一步走弱，因此有必要实行"风险管理"式降息。今年美联储已降息 两次，并将持续疲软的劳动力市场作为其决策的核心考量因素。 由于各项数据显示美国劳动力市场正在降温，贝莱德智库认为美联储本月有望降息。这一背景叠加AI 主题的推动，支撑偏好风险的立场。（新华财经） ...

贝莱德智库提到，这种政策博弈部分源于美国持续高企的财政赤字。而英国的情况则正好相反：在最新 的财政预算案中，英国政府正试图减少赤字，甚至计划在五年内实现财政盈余。英国财政大臣通过多项 增收措施，使得英国政府的"财政空间"(即财政收支之间的缓冲)超出预期，这为市场带来了惊喜。这表 明英国需在市场信誉与政治公信力之间取得平衡，且目前已实现这一平衡，尽管其税收收入在GDP中的 占比预计在2030年将达到38%的历史新高。 鉴于英国的新预算案将支出前置，而大部分税收增加的效果将滞后显现，贝莱德智库对于英国国债维持 中性观点。但在五年甚至更长时间的战略配置层面，更看好英国国债，部分原因在于英国的中性利率 (即既不刺激也不阻碍经济增长的利率水平)低于其他发达市场的政府债券市场。随着美联储重启降息周 期，该机构已将美国长期国债的评级上调至中性，但考虑到潜在的政策博弈且这些博弈预计会持续存 在，仍需灵活应对。 12月4日，贝莱德智库发文称，由于各项数据显示美国劳动力市场正在降温，该机构认为美联储本月有 望降息。这一背景叠加AI主题的推动，支撑贝莱德智库偏好风险的立场。该机构对于英国国债维持中 性观点，但从长期维度来看，相较于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of November 21, ETF products declined overall in the past two weeks. Among domestic major broad - based ETFs, the Shanghai Composite 50 had the smallest decline, and among industry and theme products, the consumption - themed ETF had the smallest decline [2]. - In the past two weeks, among domestic major broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 1000 ETFs had the highest net inflows of funds. On November 21, major broad - based and technology - themed ETFs had significant net inflows [2]. - In the past two weeks, funds in cycle, military, and new energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows; funds in technology, dividend, and other large - manufacturing ETFs accelerated their inflows; while the inflow speed of funds in pharmaceutical, consumption, and financial real - estate ETFs slowed down [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Review 3.1.1 Main Types of ETF Fund Flows Overview - In terms of broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively high net inflows in the past two weeks. For example, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 had a net inflow of 90.66 billion yuan in the past two weeks [9]. - Among industry - themed ETFs, technology ETFs had an accelerated inflow of funds in the past two weeks, with a net inflow of 322.73 billion yuan. New energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows, with a net inflow of 28.34 billion yuan [9]. 3.1.2 Cumulative Fund Flows of Main Types of ETFs - For broad - based ETFs, since 2025, the fund trend of major broad - based ETFs has changed from outflows to inflows and then back to outflows. In the past two weeks, the overall funds of major broad - based ETFs turned into net inflows [11]. - For industry and theme ETFs, technology ETFs turned to net inflows since March after a large - scale outflow at the beginning of the year, and the inflow speed accelerated in the past two weeks. Cycle, military, and new energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows [17]. - For bond ETFs, since 2025, credit - bond and treasury - bond ETFs have had the highest net inflows. In the past two weeks, convertible - bond ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows, and treasury - bond ETFs accelerated their net inflows [17]. 3.1.3 ETF Product Structure Distribution - As of November 21, a total of 13 new ETFs were established in the market in the past two weeks, with a total issuance share of 5.828 billion shares. Among them, 12 were stock ETFs and 1 was a QDII - ETF [26]. - Compared with the end of 2024, the scale of various types of ETFs has increased. The scales of bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII - ETFs, and broad - based ETFs increased by 313.15%, 204.80%, 105.82%, 52.50%, and 9.24% respectively [26]. 3.1.4 Fund Manager Scale Distribution - As of November 21, China Asset Management had the largest on - exchange ETF scale, reaching 88.8558 billion yuan. The ETF management scale of E Fund expanded by more than 22 billion yuan compared with a year ago [27]. 3.2 Classification of ETF Tracking 3.2.1 Technology - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking semiconductor materials and equipment had net outflows [32]. 3.2.2 Dividend - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect High - Dividend Low - Volatility Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the A500 Dividend Low - Volatility Index had net outflows [35]. 3.2.3 Consumption - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the S&P 500 Consumer Select Index had a relatively high premium rate. ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Consumption Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI Tourism Index had net outflows [37]. 3.2.4 Pharmaceutical - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - ETFs tracking the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drugs had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI Traditional Chinese Medicine Index had net outflows [40]. 3.2.5 Large - Manufacturing - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Robot Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI National Defense Index had net outflows [43]. 3.2.6 QDII ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while ETF products tracking the Hang Seng Index had net outflows [46]. 3.3 Popular - Themed ETF Tracking 3.3.1 AI - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - AI - themed products performed poorly in the past two weeks, with an average return rate of - 7.70%. Products tracking cloud computing had the smallest decline. Since 2025, funds have had an overall net inflow, and in the past two weeks, the net inflow of funds was 9.172 billion yuan [57]. 3.3.2 Robot - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Robot - themed products performed poorly in the past two weeks, with an average return rate of - 7.30%. Products tracking the Robot Index had the smallest decline. Since February 2025, funds have shown a rapid inflow trend, and in the past two weeks, the net inflow of funds was 3.556 billion yuan [61].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite short-term volatility due to rising trade tensions, the long-term outlook for Chinese assets remains positive, with opportunities for investors to buy on dips [1][3][6] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 3.21%, with significant gains in various Chinese ETFs, indicating a strong rebound in Chinese stocks [2][6] - UBS reports that the MSCI China Index may find strong support around the 74 level, suggesting that investors are likely to buy on dips [6][7] Group 2 - Analysts from multiple firms believe that the current market environment differs from April, with a clearer "loose monetary + loose fiscal" policy, which may provide support for the market [3][4] - The long-term trend for A-shares is expected to remain bullish, driven by structural recovery in earnings and credit [4][7] - Foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market have rebounded significantly, with $4.6 billion net inflow in September, indicating renewed confidence from global investors [7][8] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has raised its capital expenditure forecast for Tencent to 350 billion yuan, citing AI's positive impact on its business lines [8] - Alibaba's capital expenditure forecast has also been significantly increased to 460 billion yuan, with a positive outlook on its cloud revenue growth [8] - The overall sentiment among foreign investment firms is optimistic regarding the Chinese market, with many viewing recent stock price corrections as buying opportunities [6][7][8]

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains an optimistic stance on Chinese stocks, particularly favoring A-shares due to their relative valuation attractiveness, which is at a 30% discount compared to the MSCI World Index and aligns with historical averages [1] Industry Preferences - UBS is bullish on the AI theme, A-share brokerage firms, and high-dividend stocks [1] - The firm selectively supports the "anti-involution" theme, showing preference for sectors such as solar energy, chemicals, and lithium batteries [1] Preferred Stocks - UBS has listed its top picks for Chinese stocks, including A-shares such as Huatai Securities, Northern Huachuang, Yutong Bus, Kingsoft Office, Yangtze Power, and Small Commodity City, all rated as "Buy" [1] - For H-shares, the preferred stocks include China Mobile, Tencent, CRRC, and BYD, also rated as "Buy" [1] - ADRs highlighted by UBS include NetEase, Alibaba, and Global Data, all receiving a "Buy" rating [1]

ETF Market Overview - As of September 19, the overall performance of ETF products in the past two weeks has been good, with the Sci-Tech 50 showing the highest increase among major broad-based ETFs, while technology sector ETFs had the largest gains among industry and thematic products [3][10] - In the past two weeks, major broad-based ETFs, except for the ChiNext Index, experienced net outflows, with the Sci-Tech 50 ETF having the largest net outflow [3][10] Fund Flow Analysis - In the past two weeks, the military industry ETF shifted from net inflow to net outflow, while funds accelerated into dividend, pharmaceutical, large manufacturing, financial real estate, and new energy ETFs, with inflow speeds for cyclical, consumer, and technology ETFs slowing down [16] - For bond ETFs, there was a significant inflow into credit bond ETFs, while convertible bonds, short-term financing, and government bond ETFs shifted from net inflow to net outflow, with policy financial bonds experiencing accelerated net outflows and local government bonds seeing slowed net inflows [16] ETF Product Structure - As of September 19, a total of 27 new ETFs were established in the past two weeks, with a total issuance of 48.362 billion units, consisting of 14 pure bond ETFs and 13 stock ETFs [19] - Compared to the end of 2024, the scale of various ETFs has increased, with bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII ETFs, and broad-based ETFs increasing by 237.50%, 111.89%, 94.45%, 46.09%, and 11.03% respectively [19] Thematic ETF Tracking - In the past two weeks, products tracking semiconductor-related indices, such as the China-Korea Semiconductor, performed well, while funds tracking the National Chip Index experienced net outflows [25][28] - The AI-themed ETFs, which have a high proportion of AI stocks, had an average return of 6.67% in the past two weeks, with a net outflow of 1.557 billion yuan [3] - The robotics-themed ETFs showed an average return of 8.30% in the past two weeks, with a net inflow of 8.473 billion yuan [3] Fund Manager Scale Distribution - As of September 19, Huaxia Fund had the largest ETF on-market scale at 863.966 billion yuan, while E Fund's ETF management scale expanded by over 370 billion yuan compared to one year ago [20]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The latest FOF (Fund of Funds) report reveals a strong preference for bond funds, with significant interest in various ETF, actively managed equity funds, and QDII funds as the capital market shows signs of recovery [1][3]. Group 1: FOF Holdings and Performance - In Q2, bond funds remained the primary focus for FOF, with the highest market value held in Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF, exceeding 1.643 billion yuan [3][4]. - The top 30 actively managed equity funds held by FOF saw 21 funds yielding over 20% returns, while two QDII funds exceeded 100% returns [1][19]. - The top three funds with the most significant increase in holdings were all bond funds, with Bo Shi Credit Preferred E seeing an increase of over 800 million shares [6][7]. Group 2: ETF Performance - The total scale of ETFs surpassed 4.31 trillion yuan, marking a 15.57% increase from the previous year [10]. - The top five ETFs by market value held by FOF include Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF and Bo Shi Zhong Dai 0-3 Year National Development Bank ETF [10][12]. - The best-performing ETFs focused on the technology sector, with returns ranging from 35.98% to 49.30% [11]. Group 3: QDII Fund Insights - The highest market value QDII fund held by FOF was Hua Xia Hang Seng ETF, with over 800 million yuan in holdings [19][20]. - Two QDII funds, Hui Tian Fu Hong Kong Advantage Selected A and Guang Fa Zhong Zheng Hong Kong Innovative Medicine ETF, reported returns exceeding 100% [19][20]. Group 4: Market Outlook - FOF managers express optimism for the market's continuation, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies amid rapid industry rotations [23]. - The anticipated economic stabilization and potential overseas capital inflows are expected to benefit the Chinese capital market [23].

Core Viewpoint - The latest FOF (Fund of Funds) report reveals a strong preference for bond funds among FOF managers, with significant interest also in ETFs, actively managed equity funds, and QDII funds as the capital market recovers [1][2][8]. Summary by Category FOF Holdings Overview - In Q2, bond funds remained the primary focus for FOFs, with the highest market value held in Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF, exceeding 1.643 billion yuan [2][3]. - The top 30 actively managed equity funds held by FOFs saw 21 funds yielding over 20% returns, while two QDII funds achieved returns exceeding 100% [1][12]. Top Bond Funds Held by FOFs - The top bond funds held by FOFs include: - Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF: 1.643 billion yuan, 1.03% YTD return [3][9]. - Bo Shi Zhong Dai 0-3 Year National Development Bank ETF: 1.022 billion yuan, 0.47% YTD return [3][9]. - Bo Shi Credit Preferred E: 1.016 billion yuan, 1.07% YTD return [3][5]. Changes in Holdings - The most increased holdings in Q2 were primarily in bond funds, with Bo Shi Credit Preferred E seeing an increase of over 800 million shares [4][5]. - Other notable increases included South Fund Income Treasure B and Bo Shi Fu Rui Pure Bond A, both exceeding 400 million shares [4][5]. Performance of ETFs - The total scale of ETFs surpassed 4.31 trillion yuan, marking a 15.57% increase from the end of last year [8]. - The top five ETFs by market value held by FOFs include Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF and Bo Shi Zhong Dai 0-3 Year National Development Bank ETF, with significant interest in tech-focused ETFs showing strong performance [8][9]. Active Equity Funds - The highest valued actively managed equity fund held by FOFs was Yi Fang Da Ke Rong, with a market value of 384 million yuan, despite a reduction of over 380,000 shares [11][12]. - The top 30 actively managed equity funds had a positive performance, with two funds exceeding 80% returns [12][13]. QDII Funds Performance - The highest valued QDII fund held by FOFs was Hua Xia Hang Seng ETF, with a market value exceeding 800 million yuan [16]. - Two QDII funds, Huatai Fuhua Hong Kong Advantage Selection A and Guangfa Zhong Zheng Hong Kong Innovative Medicine ETF, achieved returns over 100% [16]. Market Outlook - FOF managers express optimism for future market performance, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies amid rapid industry rotations [17][18]. - The anticipated economic stabilization and potential dual easing of fiscal and monetary policies in developed economies could favor the Chinese capital market [17].

Core Viewpoint - The global market appears resilient to economic data and policy uncertainties, driven by liquidity, with expectations of continued bullish trends in Asia due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A major Wall Street bank's chief economist noted a "water buffalo" sign indicating liquidity-driven market behavior [1] - In the U.S., there is a frenzy around AI themes, while the Eurozone benefits from low interest rates and increased defense spending, attracting funds into defense and cyclical stocks [1] Group 2: China Market Insights - In China, a stable economic foundation and policy expectations have led to a flow of household savings into the stock market, with insurance funds investing nearly 1 trillion yuan [1] - The recent trading volume in A-shares has reached over 30 trillion yuan for the second time in history, indicating strong market activity [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated potential adjustments to policy stance based on changes in baseline outlook and risk balance [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting, which is expected to inject momentum into Asian markets [1]