智通财经APP获悉，美联储理事沃勒周一表示，随着近期抛售冲击加密资产，特朗普当选后曾提振市场 的乐观情绪正在消退。沃勒称，近期的剧烈波动与监管不确定性以及大型金融机构的风险管理调整有 关。 期权市场同样偏谨慎。比特币隐含波动率已从上周四的约83%回落至目前的60%左右，表明对短期大幅 波动的预期降温，但25-delta看涨/看跌偏度仍明显向看跌期权倾斜，显示对下行保护的需求居高不下。 业内人士指出，杠杆影响减弱有助于降低波动并稳定价格，但也意味着不少投资者选择在较低水平止盈 或止损，转为观望甚至暂时离场。 宏观层面的不确定性进一步强化了谨慎情绪。市场参与者正面临密集的潜在"扰动源"，包括日本政局变 化、贵金属价格波动，以及围绕AI主题的美股行情是否可持续等。在多重风险交织之下，分析人士认 为，当前由空头情绪主导的市场更可能进入震荡整固，而非迅速反转上行。 在市场层面，比特币已较10月高点回落逾40%。上周比特币一度跌至6.0033万美元，创下自2024年10月 以来新低，并触发自FTX于2022年倒闭以来最大的一次波动率飙升。尽管随后反弹至约7万美元附近， 衍生品市场仍持续释放谨慎信号。 数据显示，比特币永续 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the three major telecom operators in mainland China will adjust their value-added tax rates from 6% to 9%, which is expected to impact net profits for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom by 7.1%, 12.6%, and 11.9% respectively [1] Group 1: Tax Adjustment Impact - The tax adjustment will affect mobile data, SMS/MMS, and internet broadband services [1] - China Mobile is expected to experience the smallest impact among the three operators due to its higher gross margins [1] - The actual profit impact may be milder than estimated, as the telecom operators are undergoing state-owned enterprise reforms with financial KPIs set by authorities [1] Group 2: Mitigation Measures - Telecom operators are expected to offset the impact of the tax adjustment through various measures, including optimizing operating expenses, price increases, and controlling capital expenditures [1] Group 3: Market Performance and Dividend Yield - The stock prices of the three major telecom operators have significantly declined since the fourth quarter of last year, primarily due to capital rotation towards AI-themed stocks and concerns over slowing growth in traditional telecom services [1] - Expected dividend yields for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom in 2026 are 7%, 5.7%, and 6.8% respectively, which remain attractive compared to the Hang Seng Index [1] - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for all three telecom operators [1]

2026 年 1 月 30 日北京时间晚 8 点 5 分左右，特朗普在社交媒体发文称提名凯 文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为下一任美联储主席。 平安观点： 策 略 报 告 策略配置研究 2026 年 1 月 31 日 海外政策追踪系列（一） 美联储开启沃什时代：简析主席提名对大类资产的影响 证券分析师 事项： 策 略 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - 魏伟 投资咨询资格编号 S1060513060001 WEIWEI170@pingan.com.cn 陈骁 投资咨询资格编号 S1060516070001 BWH863 CHENXIAO397@pingan.com.cn 校星 投资咨询资格编号 S1060525120003 XIAOXING407@pingan.com.cn 北京时间上午 8 点 15 分左右，特朗普称将于当晚公布美联储主席人选。 随后预测市场认为沃什被提名美联储主席的可能性快速上升至 80%，与 最近的头号人物里德尔拉开明显差距。沃什为哈佛大学法学博士，现任斯 坦福商学院讲师、斯坦福胡佛研究所杰出访问学者。政治经历方面，沃什 曾为美国总统乔治·布什核心经济幕僚，后续担任过美联储理事。20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a brief surge followed by a decline, with the financial technology sector remaining strong, particularly highlighted by the performance of the Huatai-PineBridge Financial Technology ETF [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise over 1% before turning negative, while the financial technology ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159103) surged over 3% and peaked at a 7.1% increase during early trading [1] - The trading volume in the A-share market has been robust, with total trading exceeding 30 trillion yuan for four consecutive days, indicating heightened market activity [8] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Individual investor activity has increased significantly, with net inflows of 155.7 billion yuan, marking a 64.1 billion yuan increase from the previous period, the second-highest net inflow in nearly a year [8] - Retail investors are increasingly participating in the market through direct stock purchases and indirectly via funds and ETFs, with a shift from net outflows to net inflows in retail ETF investments [8] Group 3: Financial Technology Sector Outlook - The financial technology sector is expected to benefit from both short-term market activity and mid-term policy support, with internet brokerages likely to see significant performance improvements due to increased trading volumes [2][8] - The financial IT companies with strong positions in securities IT systems, cross-border payments, and AI financial applications are anticipated to be the core beneficiaries of the evolving market landscape [2][8] Group 4: Policy and Growth Projections - The Chinese financial technology policy framework from 2021 to 2025 aims to promote innovation and enhance risk control across various sectors, with market size projected to grow to 651.5 billion yuan by 2028 [8] - The financial technology sector is poised for growth driven by AI applications, with historical performance indicating that it has outperformed other sectors during significant AI market trends [8][11]

美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 12月12日，杰富瑞量化策略师Shrikant Kale表示，日本股市在2026年前景具有强劲吸引力，因为东京证 券交易所推动的自下而上的企业改革，与自上而下的、促进增长的政治领导力相互叠加。 责任编辑：栎树 他表示，日本央行应该推进货币政策正常化，但对美国经济的担忧可能会提升对美联储放松政策的预 期，从而对日元形成上行压力。Kale预计，受盈利增长推动，2026年日本东证指数（Topix）将有13% 的上涨空间。他说："尽管市场追逐AI主题，但在高昂预期之下，我们认为盈利存在风险。" ...

贝莱德认为，9月就业报告及其他相关数据表明，美国劳动力市场正处于"不招聘、不裁员"的停滞状 态。自年初以来，美国就业增长已经放缓，劳动力需求与供给双双下降，其中供给端下滑主要源于移民 数量的急剧放缓。维持失业率稳定所需的就业增长"盈亏平衡"水平也因此下降。这也能解释为什么工资 增长依然稳健，以及今年失业率只是小幅上升且仍处于历史低位。 贝莱德智库最新一期文章称，由于美国政府长期停摆导致数据发布延迟，美联储对经济形势的判断难度 加大。美联储担忧劳动力市场可能进一步走弱，因此有必要实行"风险管理"式降息。今年美联储已降息 两次，并将持续疲软的劳动力市场作为其决策的核心考量因素。 由于各项数据显示美国劳动力市场正在降温，贝莱德智库认为美联储本月有望降息。这一背景叠加AI 主题的推动，支撑偏好风险的立场。（新华财经） ...

贝莱德智库提到，这种政策博弈部分源于美国持续高企的财政赤字。而英国的情况则正好相反：在最新 的财政预算案中，英国政府正试图减少赤字，甚至计划在五年内实现财政盈余。英国财政大臣通过多项 增收措施，使得英国政府的"财政空间"(即财政收支之间的缓冲)超出预期，这为市场带来了惊喜。这表 明英国需在市场信誉与政治公信力之间取得平衡，且目前已实现这一平衡，尽管其税收收入在GDP中的 占比预计在2030年将达到38%的历史新高。 鉴于英国的新预算案将支出前置，而大部分税收增加的效果将滞后显现，贝莱德智库对于英国国债维持 中性观点。但在五年甚至更长时间的战略配置层面，更看好英国国债，部分原因在于英国的中性利率 (即既不刺激也不阻碍经济增长的利率水平)低于其他发达市场的政府债券市场。随着美联储重启降息周 期，该机构已将美国长期国债的评级上调至中性，但考虑到潜在的政策博弈且这些博弈预计会持续存 在，仍需灵活应对。 12月4日，贝莱德智库发文称，由于各项数据显示美国劳动力市场正在降温，该机构认为美联储本月有 望降息。这一背景叠加AI主题的推动，支撑贝莱德智库偏好风险的立场。该机构对于英国国债维持中 性观点，但从长期维度来看，相较于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of November 21, ETF products declined overall in the past two weeks. Among domestic major broad - based ETFs, the Shanghai Composite 50 had the smallest decline, and among industry and theme products, the consumption - themed ETF had the smallest decline [2]. - In the past two weeks, among domestic major broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 1000 ETFs had the highest net inflows of funds. On November 21, major broad - based and technology - themed ETFs had significant net inflows [2]. - In the past two weeks, funds in cycle, military, and new energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows; funds in technology, dividend, and other large - manufacturing ETFs accelerated their inflows; while the inflow speed of funds in pharmaceutical, consumption, and financial real - estate ETFs slowed down [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Review 3.1.1 Main Types of ETF Fund Flows Overview - In terms of broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively high net inflows in the past two weeks. For example, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 had a net inflow of 90.66 billion yuan in the past two weeks [9]. - Among industry - themed ETFs, technology ETFs had an accelerated inflow of funds in the past two weeks, with a net inflow of 322.73 billion yuan. New energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows, with a net inflow of 28.34 billion yuan [9]. 3.1.2 Cumulative Fund Flows of Main Types of ETFs - For broad - based ETFs, since 2025, the fund trend of major broad - based ETFs has changed from outflows to inflows and then back to outflows. In the past two weeks, the overall funds of major broad - based ETFs turned into net inflows [11]. - For industry and theme ETFs, technology ETFs turned to net inflows since March after a large - scale outflow at the beginning of the year, and the inflow speed accelerated in the past two weeks. Cycle, military, and new energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows [17]. - For bond ETFs, since 2025, credit - bond and treasury - bond ETFs have had the highest net inflows. In the past two weeks, convertible - bond ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows, and treasury - bond ETFs accelerated their net inflows [17]. 3.1.3 ETF Product Structure Distribution - As of November 21, a total of 13 new ETFs were established in the market in the past two weeks, with a total issuance share of 5.828 billion shares. Among them, 12 were stock ETFs and 1 was a QDII - ETF [26]. - Compared with the end of 2024, the scale of various types of ETFs has increased. The scales of bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII - ETFs, and broad - based ETFs increased by 313.15%, 204.80%, 105.82%, 52.50%, and 9.24% respectively [26]. 3.1.4 Fund Manager Scale Distribution - As of November 21, China Asset Management had the largest on - exchange ETF scale, reaching 88.8558 billion yuan. The ETF management scale of E Fund expanded by more than 22 billion yuan compared with a year ago [27]. 3.2 Classification of ETF Tracking 3.2.1 Technology - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking semiconductor materials and equipment had net outflows [32]. 3.2.2 Dividend - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect High - Dividend Low - Volatility Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the A500 Dividend Low - Volatility Index had net outflows [35]. 3.2.3 Consumption - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the S&P 500 Consumer Select Index had a relatively high premium rate. ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Consumption Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI Tourism Index had net outflows [37]. 3.2.4 Pharmaceutical - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - ETFs tracking the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drugs had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI Traditional Chinese Medicine Index had net outflows [40]. 3.2.5 Large - Manufacturing - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Robot Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI National Defense Index had net outflows [43]. 3.2.6 QDII ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while ETF products tracking the Hang Seng Index had net outflows [46]. 3.3 Popular - Themed ETF Tracking 3.3.1 AI - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - AI - themed products performed poorly in the past two weeks, with an average return rate of - 7.70%. Products tracking cloud computing had the smallest decline. Since 2025, funds have had an overall net inflow, and in the past two weeks, the net inflow of funds was 9.172 billion yuan [57]. 3.3.2 Robot - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Robot - themed products performed poorly in the past two weeks, with an average return rate of - 7.30%. Products tracking the Robot Index had the smallest decline. Since February 2025, funds have shown a rapid inflow trend, and in the past two weeks, the net inflow of funds was 3.556 billion yuan [61].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite short-term volatility due to rising trade tensions, the long-term outlook for Chinese assets remains positive, with opportunities for investors to buy on dips [1][3][6] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 3.21%, with significant gains in various Chinese ETFs, indicating a strong rebound in Chinese stocks [2][6] - UBS reports that the MSCI China Index may find strong support around the 74 level, suggesting that investors are likely to buy on dips [6][7] Group 2 - Analysts from multiple firms believe that the current market environment differs from April, with a clearer "loose monetary + loose fiscal" policy, which may provide support for the market [3][4] - The long-term trend for A-shares is expected to remain bullish, driven by structural recovery in earnings and credit [4][7] - Foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market have rebounded significantly, with $4.6 billion net inflow in September, indicating renewed confidence from global investors [7][8] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has raised its capital expenditure forecast for Tencent to 350 billion yuan, citing AI's positive impact on its business lines [8] - Alibaba's capital expenditure forecast has also been significantly increased to 460 billion yuan, with a positive outlook on its cloud revenue growth [8] - The overall sentiment among foreign investment firms is optimistic regarding the Chinese market, with many viewing recent stock price corrections as buying opportunities [6][7][8]

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains an optimistic stance on Chinese stocks, particularly favoring A-shares due to their relative valuation attractiveness, which is at a 30% discount compared to the MSCI World Index and aligns with historical averages [1] Industry Preferences - UBS is bullish on the AI theme, A-share brokerage firms, and high-dividend stocks [1] - The firm selectively supports the "anti-involution" theme, showing preference for sectors such as solar energy, chemicals, and lithium batteries [1] Preferred Stocks - UBS has listed its top picks for Chinese stocks, including A-shares such as Huatai Securities, Northern Huachuang, Yutong Bus, Kingsoft Office, Yangtze Power, and Small Commodity City, all rated as "Buy" [1] - For H-shares, the preferred stocks include China Mobile, Tencent, CRRC, and BYD, also rated as "Buy" [1] - ADRs highlighted by UBS include NetEase, Alibaba, and Global Data, all receiving a "Buy" rating [1]