Group 1 - The U.S. has announced additional tariffs on Indian goods as a punishment for India's purchase of Russian oil [1] - There are threats from the U.S. to impose secondary tariffs on Chinese goods due to China's purchase of Russian oil [1] - President Trump stated that there are currently no plans to impose tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil after his meeting with President Putin [3] Group 2 - Trump mentioned that he may reconsider the issue of tariffs on China in two to three weeks, but it is not an immediate concern [3] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated that China's energy cooperation with countries, including Russia, is legitimate and based on national interests [3]

Group 1 - The article reports that U.S. President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on steel and chips next week, starting with a lower tax rate [1] - The focus on tariffs indicates a potential shift in trade policy that could impact the steel and semiconductor industries significantly [1] Group 2 - The article references the "China IC Unicorn Alliance," suggesting a growing interest in the semiconductor sector within China [3] - The mention of the article being a reprint indicates a broader discussion on the implications of U.S. tariffs on global supply chains and market dynamics [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the origin has strong supply and demand, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2]. - For soybean oil, the reduction of US soybean planting area provides a theme for price increases [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Palm oil closed at 9,362 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.56% increase and 9,414 yuan/ton at night with a 0.56% increase; soybean oil closed at 8,488 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.38% increase and 8,516 yuan/ton at night with a 0.33% increase; rapeseed oil closed at 9,802 yuan/ton during the day session with a 2.23% increase and 10,079 yuan/ton at night with a 2.83% increase [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil trading volume decreased by 124,344 lots to 443,030 lots, and open interest decreased by 29,322 lots to 270,663 lots; soybean oil trading volume decreased by 23,809 lots to 140,203 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,769 lots to 306,250 lots; rapeseed oil trading volume increased by 77,172 lots to 271,285 lots, and open interest decreased by 8,561 lots to 117,479 lots [3]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,260 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,690 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 102 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 162 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 112 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 448 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 886 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Anti - Dumping Investigation**: The Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada, imposing a 75.8% deposit rate on all Canadian companies, causing a 4.5% drop in ICE Canadian rapeseed futures [4][5]. - **Tariff Adjustment**: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the 24% additional tariff on US imports will be suspended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff will be retained [5]. - **US Soybean Supply and Demand**: According to the August USDA supply - demand report, the expected US soybean production for 2025/2026 is 4.292 billion bushels, the expected ending inventory is 290 million bushels, and the expected yield is 53.6 bushels per acre [5]. - **Indian Oil Imports**: Indian soybean oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to soar 60% year - on - year to 5.5 million tons, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports may drop 20% to 2.8 million tons [6]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory**: Malaysian palm oil inventory reached a 19 - month high of 2.11 million tons in July. Analysts expect the inventory to remain above 2 million tons, with prices likely to decline in Q3 and rise in Q4 [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [7].

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by Trump has severely impacted the global economy, with China's countermeasures leading to a shift in attitudes among various countries towards the U.S. [1][4][11] - The UK Chancellor, Reeves, has openly rejected U.S. requests to isolate China, labeling such actions as foolish and emphasizing the importance of maintaining contact with China [9][14][22]. - The U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on UK goods, including a 10% baseline tariff and a 25% tariff on UK automotive exports, which constitutes over 10% of the UK's total exports to the U.S. [22][24][26]. Group 2 - The UK's refusal to align with the U.S. against China reflects a broader recognition among nations that isolating a major economy like China is impractical and detrimental to their own interests [7][30][34]. - The response from the UK indicates a potential shift in the dynamics of international relations, where countries are reconsidering their alliances in light of U.S. actions [36][39]. - China's stance remains focused on cooperation and mutual benefit, rejecting the notion of being a pawn in U.S. geopolitical strategies [32][34].

两国领导人同意继续推进磋商，美国目前正参与多项贸易谈判。双方贸易谈判团队将就具体细节展开更 深入的讨论。 目前，南非对美出口约占其总出口的7.5%，主要产品包括为美国工业提供的中间品以及用于填补反季 节市场的农产品。南非官方此前发布声明称，新关税可能使南非经济增长率下调0.2%，约3万个就业岗 位将受到波及。 中新网约翰内斯堡8月7日电(记者孙翔)南非总统府7日发布消息称，6日上午，南非总统拉马福萨与美国 总统特朗普就双边贸易问题进行了电话会谈。 为应对冲击，南非政府已启动多项措施，包括设立出口支持平台、推动出口市场多元化、实施出口企 业"豁免区块政策"，以增强出口产业的抗压能力和韧性。(完) 根据安排，新一轮美国加征关税措施将于8月8日凌晨正式生效，南非所面临的30%税率在撒哈拉以南非 洲国家中位居首位。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

Employment Data - In July, the U.S. added only 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly lower than expected, with previous months' job additions revised down to 19,000 and 14,000 for May and June respectively, indicating a downward adjustment of 86,000 jobs[3] - The average unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, reversing a slight decline in June[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell for the third consecutive month, down 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%, the lowest since December 2022, reflecting a decrease in potential labor supply due to strict immigration controls[4] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9% year-on-year, following three months of stagnation, indicating upward pressure on wages[4] Economic Implications - The labor market's current cooling trend is expected to be temporary, with potential recovery as fiscal expansion measures are implemented, which may lead to increased job creation and higher incomes[4] - The "Big and Beautiful Act" is anticipated to provide significant tax incentives for domestic investment, potentially leading to a rebound in the labor market and upward pressure on inflation[4] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index fell sharply by 1.38% to 98.69, reflecting market concerns over the labor market's performance[3] - The overall structure of job additions in July suggests a prolonged process for the return of advanced industry chains to the U.S., with tariffs having a notable impact on domestic manufacturing[3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has issued guidelines regarding the imposition of tariffs on Brazilian goods [1] Group 1 - The guidelines detail the specific products affected by the new tariffs [1] - The announcement is part of a broader strategy to regulate trade practices and protect domestic industries [1] - The impact of these tariffs on trade relations between the U.S. and Brazil is expected to be significant [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on the upcoming non-farm payroll data and the impact of U.S. economic indicators on gold prices. The overall sentiment remains bullish, supported by the 100-day moving average, despite pressures from a strengthening U.S. dollar [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On July 31, gold opened at $3275.89 per ounce, reached a low of $3273.86, and peaked at $3314.81 before closing at $3289.93, marking a daily increase of $14.04 or 0.43% [1]. - The daily trading range was $40.95, indicating significant volatility and trading opportunities [1]. Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting key economic data, including U.S. unemployment rates and non-farm payroll figures, with expectations of rising unemployment and declining job numbers, which could support gold prices [5]. - The U.S. dollar index has recently strengthened, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time in two months, which has exerted downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices have not reached new highs for three consecutive months, suggesting potential risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 [7]. - The gold price is currently supported by an upward trend line from previous highs, indicating that any pullback may stabilize above $3000 [7]. - Weekly charts show that gold is trading below the 5-10 week moving averages, with a possibility of further declines to $3200 or $3000 [9]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates a period of volatility, with the potential for a rebound if the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates in September, which could push gold prices towards $3570 [11]. - The overall sentiment suggests that gold may experience a period of consolidation before potentially rising again in the fourth quarter of the year [5][12].

Group 1 - The legality of President Trump's broad imposition of global tariffs is being challenged in a federal appeals court [1] - A hearing was held by an 11-judge panel, focusing on the Trump administration's claim that the ongoing trade deficit constitutes a national emergency [1] - The outcome of the court's decision could impact the implementation of higher tariffs set to take effect the following day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. will not extend the tariff deadline of August 1, and negotiations with the EU are crucial for avoiding a trade conflict [1] Group 1 - U.S. Secretary of Commerce Ross stated that the goal of negotiations with the EU is to open European markets for U.S. exports [1] - The adequacy of the agreement offered by the EU is in question, as it needs to be compelling enough for President Trump to abandon the 30% tariff threat [1] - European leaders have indicated that if a satisfactory trade agreement is not reached before the August 1 deadline, the EU will implement countermeasures against U.S. tariffs [1] Group 2 - The EU Commission spokesperson stated that if negotiations fail, countermeasures will take effect on August 7 [1]