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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PVC is affected by the sentiment of the black sector, with its futures price rebounding. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the impact from the macro and cost sides. The supply pressure is large in the medium - to - long - term, and the demand is weak. The cost side needs continuous attention. The supply - demand situation is expected to remain weak [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda continues to rise. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is improving. The cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures price and basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5047 yuan/ton (+28), the East China basis is - 297 yuan/ton (-8), and the South China basis is - 187 yuan/ton (+2) [1]. - **Spot price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4860 yuan/ton (+30) [1]. - **Upstream production profit**: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2755 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 39 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 223 yuan/ton (+8), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 592 yuan/ton (-52), and the PVC export profit is 14.1 dollars/ton (+1.0) [1]. - **Inventory and operation rate**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (-2.1), the social PVC inventory is 50.8 tons (+1.5), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 76.07% (-3.14%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 72.44% (-5.48%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.02% (-3.82%) [1]. - **Downstream order situation**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 72.5 tons (-6.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures price and basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2732 yuan/ton (-9), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 45 yuan/ton (+40) [1]. - **Spot price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 860 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1350 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream production profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1696 yuan/ton (+31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 713.3 yuan/ton (-88.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 676.28 yuan/ton (+41.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1387.74 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - **Inventory and operation rate**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 39.64 tons (-4.14), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.36 tons (+0.03), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 83.20% (-0.90%) [2]. - **Downstream operation rate**: The operation rate of alumina is 85.78% (+0.14%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 63.86% (+2.40%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 86.22% (+0.18%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - **Supply side**: The number of maintenance increases, and the operation rate decreases month - on - month. However, the overall operation rate is at a high level due to the support of chlor - alkali profits. With the new production capacity gradually reaching full production, the medium - to - long - term supply pressure is large [3]. - **Demand side**: The operation rate of downstream products remains low, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. The export signing and delivery volume increase week - on - week. Affected by the rush to export before the implementation of anti - dumping duties, the PVC export in July exceeded expectations. After India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties, the rush to export is expected to continue, and the export expectation in the fourth quarter weakens [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory continues to accumulate and is relatively high compared to the same period. The warehouse receipt pressure of the 09 contract is large [3]. - **Cost side**: Coal and ethylene in the cost side have shown strong consolidation recently, and attention should be paid to their further impact on the PVC cost [3]. Caustic Soda - **Supply side**: The number of maintenance of chlor - alkali enterprises increases, and the operation rate decreases month - on - month but remains at a high level compared to the same period. The operation rate in Shandong increases slightly, also at a high level compared to the same period. After the maintenance of Yantai Wanhua, the operation rate may decline slightly [3]. - **Demand side**: The profit of alumina is acceptable, and the operation rate is stable month - on - month. The delivery volume of caustic soda to alumina plants, the main downstream, is lower than the daily consumption, and downstream manufacturers continue to raise the purchase price. The operation rate of non - aluminum sectors increases slightly month - on - month, and the procurement is good. Affected by the military parade in mid - to - late August, the transportation of caustic soda is restricted, and the downstream stocking sentiment improves. With the approaching of the peak season, the pending orders in Shandong are acceptable, and the enterprise inventory pressure decreases [3]. - **Cost and profit**: The price of liquid chlorine is weak, but the cost support still exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Neutral [4] - **Inter - delivery spread**: Wait - and - see [4] - **Inter - commodity spread**: None [4] Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Wait - and - see [5] - **Inter - delivery spread**: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread when the price is low [5] - **Inter - commodity spread**: None [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The PVC market is in a situation of strong expectations versus weak reality, showing signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, but the market sentiment has improved compared to the first half of the year. The low point of 4746 in the year still has strong support, and the profit - loss ratio of short - selling decreases significantly when the price falls below 5000 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory PVC Market Review - This week, the V2601 contract oscillated between 4951 and 5119 yuan/ton, with a 4 - week consecutive decline in the weekly line and an enlarged amplitude compared to last week. The contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, down 78 points or 1.5% from last week's close [3][8]. - As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC01 contract was 5059 yuan/ton (down 78 week - on - week), and the main contract's open interest was 980,000 lots, which was higher than the same period in previous years [11]. - The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. As of Friday, the PVC Changzhou basis was - 279 yuan/ton, and the number of PVC warehouse receipts was 82,000 lots (up 0.2 week - on - week). The delivery volume in June was 35,000 tons, at a neutral level year - on - year [13]. - The 9 - 1 month spread weakened. As of Friday, the V9 - 1 spread was - 141 yuan/ton (up 2 week - on - week), and the V3 - 5 spread was - 222 yuan/ton (up 27 week - on - week) [16]. - This week, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC declined more, and the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC widened [19]. Supply - This week, PVC production was 460,000 tons (down 16,000 week - on - week), with a capacity utilization rate of 78%. From week 1 to 34, the cumulative production increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and the supply was still under pressure. Next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to reach 78.33%, and the overall supply is expected to increase [22]. Demand - **Real Estate**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction in progress, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 19.4%, - 9.2%, - 16.5%, and - 4% respectively. The decline in new construction area narrowed, while the declines in construction, completion, and sales areas widened. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of these four indicators were - 15.2%, - 16.4%, - 29.5%, and - 8.4% respectively. The sales area has seen a continuous 4 - month decline. In July, the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.85% year - on - year. This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 1.93 million square meters [25][28]. - **Domestic Demand**: This week, the downstream operating rate was 43%. The operating rates of pipes and profiles improved for two consecutive weeks, while the operating rate of films declined for three consecutive weeks [31]. - **Export**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PVC export volume was 2.29 million tons (an increase of 830,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57%. In July, the domestic PVC export volume was 330,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113%. However, on August 14, India announced new anti - dumping duties, which are expected to reduce China's export advantage and the export growth rate to India in the second half of the year. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 2.45 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%), and in July, the export volume was 350,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%) [34][38]. Inventory - As of Thursday, the PVC enterprise inventory was 310,000 tons (down 21,000 week - on - week), with 9 consecutive weeks of destocking, a total of 100,000 tons. The small - sample social inventory was 510,000 tons (up 15,000 week - on - week), with 10 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation, a total of 150,000 tons. The large - sample social inventory was 680,000 tons (up 41,000 week - on - week), with 9 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation, a total of 280,000 tons [41]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 223 yuan/ton (up 8 week - on - week) [44]. Strategy - **Single - side**: The absolute price is undervalued. Close short positions and try to go long on dips in the short - term. Focus on the V2601 contract in the range of [4950, 5200]. - **Hedging**: The futures market is in a contango structure. Industrial customers can sell on rallies for hedging [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the company, Kwansei Fragrance (01925), experienced a significant stock drop of nearly 9% due to the announcement of temporary anti-dumping duties by the European Commission on candle products imported from China [1] - The European Commission will implement a temporary anti-dumping tax of 70.9% on candle products produced by the company's subsidiary in China, effective from August 13, 2025 [1] - The company derives over 50% of its sales from customers in EU member states, indicating that the temporary duties could adversely affect the company's overall revenue and profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company faces potential revenue and profit impacts due to the European Commission's temporary anti-dumping duties on candle products imported from China, set at a rate of 70.9% [1] Company Impact - The company produces and imports candle products to EU member states through its subsidiary in China, which will be subject to the new temporary tariff [1] - Over 50% of the company's sales come from orders for candle products from EU member state customers, indicating significant exposure to the new tariff [1] Regulatory Context - The European Commission announced the temporary anti-dumping duties as part of an ongoing investigation, with the possibility of adjustments during the final phase of the investigation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has announced a temporary anti-dumping duty of 70.9% on candle products imported from the People's Republic of China, which may significantly impact the company's revenue and profit due to over 50% of its sales coming from EU customers [1][1][1] Group 1: Regulatory Impact - The European Commission's regulation will take effect on August 13, 2025, following an anti-dumping investigation [1] - The temporary duty is subject to change during the final ruling phase of the anti-dumping investigation [1] Group 2: Company Exposure - The company produces and imports candle products to EU member states through its subsidiary in the People's Republic of China [1] - Over 50% of the company's sales are derived from orders for candle products from EU customers, indicating a high level of exposure to the new duty [1]

Market Dynamics - COFCO预订了约 5 万吨澳大利亚新作油菜籽 [1] - 这是自 2020 年以来中国首次从澳大利亚进口油菜籽 [1] - 中国商务部此前宣布对加拿大油菜籽征收临时反倾销税 [1]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 18, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 772.0 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. Although the US steel and aluminum tariff expansion has a negative impact on market sentiment, considering that steel mills maintain high production to support the ore price and there is no obvious restorative growth in overseas shipments in the short term, the ore price still has some support in the short term. However, it is necessary to observe whether the actual impact of production cuts in the Tangshan area will have a negative impact on the fundamentals [7][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: On August 18, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 fluctuated weakly. The opening price was 777 yuan/ton, the highest price was 784 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 766.5 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 772 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The main iron ore outer - disk quotes were down 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were down 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline, and the green column of the MACD indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract had been enlarged for two consecutive trading days [7][9] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the total shipment volume in the past four weeks decreased by 6.2% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the subsequent arrival volume may fluctuate at a moderately low level. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand is still in a seasonal decline, and the inventory is accumulating rapidly. However, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is still relatively strong, and the molten iron output rebounded after three consecutive weeks of decline, remaining at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons, which strongly supports the ore price [11] - **News Impact**: On August 15, 2025, the US Department of Commerce announced that 407 imported steel and aluminum derivative products would be included in the scope of the 232 - clause tariff of 50%. The effective time starts at 12:01 am on August 18, 2025, Eastern Time in the US. On August 9, Tangshan issued a notice requiring independent steel rolling enterprises to stop production at any time according to the meteorological conditions from August 16 to 25 and to stop production from August 25 to September 3. It is estimated that the production restrictions in Tangshan will affect the daily output of about 90,000 tons of 35 billet - rolled section steel enterprises. If the production cuts are strictly implemented, it may have a negative impact on the fundamentals [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - On August 14, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam issued Announcement No. 2310/QD - BCT, making a positive anti - dumping final ruling on carbon and alloy steel coated sheets and coils originating from China and South Korea, and decided to impose anti - dumping duties on the涉案 products. The tax rate for China is 0 - 37.13%, and for South Korea is 0 - 15.67%. The measures are effective from the date of the announcement and are valid for five years [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volume of iron ore at main ports, the inventory available days of iron ore in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered ore powder, the inventory and port clearance volume of iron ore at ports, the tax - free molten iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average molten iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the inventory of five major steel products in steel mills [14][19][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Rebar is for range trading; Iron ore is expected to be oscillating upwards; Coking coal and coke are to trade sideways [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is for range trading or staying on the sidelines; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel is suggested to stay on the sidelines or sell on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold and silver are for range trading [1][11][17] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate; Soda ash is for shorting 09 and going long on 05 for arbitrage; Caustic soda is expected to oscillate; Styrene is expected to oscillate; Rubber is expected to oscillate; Urea is expected to trade sideways; Methanol is expected to trade sideways; Polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations [1][20][29] - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be oscillating upwards; Apples are expected to be oscillating upwards; Jujubes are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][34][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to sell on rallies; Eggs are recommended to sell on rallies; Corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is expected to have range oscillations; Oils are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][36][44] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global economic and political situation, such as the "Trump - Putin meeting", US economic data, and China's monetary policy, has an impact on the financial and commodity markets [6] - The supply and demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy factors of various commodities determine their price trends and investment strategies [8][20][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: After a short - term high, the market may oscillate and wash out positions, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Investors with positions can hold or lock in profits on pullbacks, while those without positions can consider buying on dips [6] - **Treasury bonds**: In the context of the continuous increase in trading volume in the equity market, there are potential risks in the bond market, such as the transfer of funds from funds and wealth management to the equity market and increased frictions in the inter - bank market. Short - term adjustments should be avoided [6] 3.2 Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to oscillate. The cost is at a neutral level, supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, and attention should be paid to inventory increases, coking coal production resumption, and indirect steel exports [8] - **Iron ore**: The supply is slightly decreasing, and demand remains strong. With the National Day parade expectation, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [8][9] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand contradictions of coking coal are not prominent, and the price has limited downside space but may have short - term adjustments. Coke is in a tight supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to production restrictions during the parade, iron - water production trends, and raw material price fluctuations [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The macro environment is favorable, but short - term upward driving forces are insufficient. Low inventory provides support, and the price is expected to be oscillating upwards. The short - term operating range is 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level. Although there are short - term negative factors, considering the transition from the off - season to the peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [12] - **Nickel**: The medium - and long - term supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to have support, and range trading is recommended, with the reference range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [17] - **Silver and gold**: After the decline in precious metal prices due to factors such as the 7 - month PPI data in the US, there is support below. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price pullback [17][18] 3.4 Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports have uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 4900 - 5100 range [20][21] - **Caustic soda**: The supply is abundant, demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The price is expected to be oscillating upwards, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 2500 - yuan support level [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and profit are affected by factors such as oil prices and pure - benzene production. Supply has the potential to increase, demand has risks of weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate, temporarily focusing on the 7100 - 7400 range [24] - **Rubber**: The new - rubber release is affected by rain, and there is cost support. However, the inventory - removal speed may slow down in late August. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, focusing on the 15,200 - 15,600 range [26] - **Urea**: Supply is slightly decreasing, agricultural demand is scattered, and compound - fertilizer demand is increasing. The price has support below and pressure above, and range trading is recommended [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is slightly decreasing, demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be oscillating weakly [29] - **Polyolefins**: The cost has uncertainties, and downstream demand is in the off - season to peak - season transition. The price is expected to be oscillating weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2509 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [29][30] - **Soda ash**: The supply is expected to increase, and the industry is over - capacitated. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 09 contract [32] 3.5 Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, the macro environment is favorable, and with the approaching peak season, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34] - **Apples**: The inventory market is stable and dull, and the early - maturing market has quality differences. Based on low inventory and growth impacts, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34][35] - **Jujubes**: The枣树 is in the fruit - swelling stage, and the market has certain trading volumes. The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the near term [35] 3.6 Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The price is oscillating at the bottom. The 09 contract has a long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see. The 11 and 01 contracts have supply pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [36][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is sufficient, which restricts price increases. It is recommended to short on rallies. If the elimination process accelerates, there are opportunities to go long on the 12 and 01 contracts. Overall, it is recommended to short the near - term and go long on the far - term contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is oscillating in the range of 2250 - 2300. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [40][42] - **Soybean meal**: The US soybean supply - demand situation is tightening, but the price increase is limited. The domestic supply is abundant in August and September. It is recommended to hold long positions on the M2511 and M2601 contracts and roll them, and spot enterprises should build long positions [43] - **Oils**: Although there are short - term risks of high - level corrections, the overall trend is still upward. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage of rapeseed oil [44][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamental pattern of PVC remains weak, and the futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend next week. Social inventories are continuously increasing. Although there are more planned device overhauls next week, new production capacities are being gradually released, so the supply is still under pressure. India has announced an increase in anti - dumping duties on PVC from the Chinese mainland, which will weaken the export support [4]. 3. Summary by Directory PVC Market Review - This week, the PVC2509 futures fluctuated between 4,938 and 5,077 yuan/ton, opening at 4,980 yuan/ton and closing at 4,954 yuan/ton, with a three - week consecutive decline and a smaller amplitude compared to last week. The fundamentals deteriorated marginally, with social inventories increasing for 8 consecutive weeks. The cost of calcium carbide decreased by 90 yuan/ton, weakening cost support [3][8]. - As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,954 yuan/ton (down 39 yuan week - on - week), and the open interest was 370,000 lots (down 26 lots week - on - week), with an accelerated pace of open interest reduction [11]. - As of Friday, the PVC basis in Changzhou was - 104 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan week - on - week), the number of PVC warehouse receipts was 80,000 lots (up 17,000 lots week - on - week), and the delivery volume in June was 35,000 tons, at a neutral level year - on - year [13]. - As of Friday, the V9 - 1 spread was - 143 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan week - on - week), and the V3 - 5 spread was - 249 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan week - on - week) [16]. - This week, the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased marginally due to the impact of coal prices, and the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC widened [19]. Supply - This week, the PVC output was 480,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 80%. From week 1 to week 33, the cumulative output increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and the supply was still under pressure. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC is expected to be 77.61%, lower than the current level. Several enterprises have overhaul plans, and the overall supply is expected to decrease [22]. - Next week, multiple sets of devices from companies such as Xinzhongjia, Junzheng, and Zhongtai are planned for overhaul. Devices from companies like Haipingmian, Jinchuan, Ningbo Taishu, and Liancheng are planned for overhaul around September [23]. Real Estate - From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in the new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 19.4%, - 9.2%, - 16.5%, and - 4% respectively. The decline in new construction area narrowed, while the declines in construction, completion, and sales areas widened. In July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in the new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 15.2%, - 16.4%, - 29.5%, and - 8.4% respectively, with the decline in sales area widening for 4 consecutive months. In July 2025, the year - on - year change in the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 5.85% [26]. - This week, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities was 2.07 million square meters, a week - on - week decrease of 16.6% [29]. Domestic Demand - This week, the downstream operating rate was 43%. The operating rates of pipes and profiles improved month - on - month, while the operating rate of films declined for 2 consecutive weeks [31]. Exports - From January to June 2025, the PVC export volume was 1.96 million tons (an increase of 660,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50%. In May 2025, the domestic PVC export volume was 260,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21% [34]. - India announced new anti - dumping duties on imported PVC on August 14, 2025, raising the duties on the Chinese mainland by 40 - 65 US dollars/ton, which is expected to limit the export of PVC from the Chinese mainland to the Indian market. 45% of the PVC exports in the first half of the year went to India, and this situation is expected to change in the second half of the year [35]. - From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 2.09 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11%. In June 2025, the export volume of PVC flooring was 320,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% [38]. Inventory - As of Thursday, the PVC enterprise inventory was 330,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons), with 8 consecutive weeks of inventory reduction, totaling 75,000 tons. The small - sample social inventory of PVC was 490,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons), with 9 consecutive weeks of inventory increase, totaling 138,000 tons. The large - sample social inventory of PVC was 680,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons), with 8 consecutive weeks of inventory increase, totaling 242,000 tons [41]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC was - 231 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 21 yuan) [44].