旷世芳香(01925)发布公告，根据欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会进行的反倾销调查结果，欧盟委员会于2025 年8月13日公布实施一项法规，对原产于中华人民共和国的进口蜡烛、小蜡烛及同类产品征收临时反倾 销税。公司于中华人民共和国成立的附属公司生产并进口至欧盟成员国的蜡烛产品适用临时关税税率为 70.9%。欧盟委员会表示，关于征收临时关税税率的调查结果乃为临时性，并可能会在反倾销调查的终 裁阶段时修改。 董事认为，鉴于集团逾50%销量源自欧盟成员国客户的采购蜡烛产品订单，故临时关税可能会对集团的 整体收入及溢利造成影响。 ...

Market Dynamics - COFCO预订了约 5 万吨澳大利亚新作油菜籽 [1] - 这是自 2020 年以来中国首次从澳大利亚进口油菜籽 [1] - 中国商务部此前宣布对加拿大油菜籽征收临时反倾销税 [1]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 19 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：8月18日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 31 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Rebar is for range trading; Iron ore is expected to be oscillating upwards; Coking coal and coke are to trade sideways [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is for range trading or staying on the sidelines; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel is suggested to stay on the sidelines or sell on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold and silver are for range trading [1][11][17] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate; Soda ash is for shorting 09 and going long on 05 for arbitrage; Caustic soda is expected to oscillate; Styrene is expected to oscillate; Rubber is expected to oscillate; Urea is expected to trade sideways; Methanol is expected to trade sideways; Polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations [1][20][29] - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be oscillating upwards; Apples are expected to be oscillating upwards; Jujubes are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][34][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to sell on rallies; Eggs are recommended to sell on rallies; Corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is expected to have range oscillations; Oils are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][36][44] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global economic and political situation, such as the "Trump - Putin meeting", US economic data, and China's monetary policy, has an impact on the financial and commodity markets [6] - The supply and demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy factors of various commodities determine their price trends and investment strategies [8][20][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: After a short - term high, the market may oscillate and wash out positions, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Investors with positions can hold or lock in profits on pullbacks, while those without positions can consider buying on dips [6] - **Treasury bonds**: In the context of the continuous increase in trading volume in the equity market, there are potential risks in the bond market, such as the transfer of funds from funds and wealth management to the equity market and increased frictions in the inter - bank market. Short - term adjustments should be avoided [6] 3.2 Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to oscillate. The cost is at a neutral level, supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, and attention should be paid to inventory increases, coking coal production resumption, and indirect steel exports [8] - **Iron ore**: The supply is slightly decreasing, and demand remains strong. With the National Day parade expectation, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [8][9] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand contradictions of coking coal are not prominent, and the price has limited downside space but may have short - term adjustments. Coke is in a tight supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to production restrictions during the parade, iron - water production trends, and raw material price fluctuations [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The macro environment is favorable, but short - term upward driving forces are insufficient. Low inventory provides support, and the price is expected to be oscillating upwards. The short - term operating range is 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level. Although there are short - term negative factors, considering the transition from the off - season to the peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [12] - **Nickel**: The medium - and long - term supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to have support, and range trading is recommended, with the reference range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [17] - **Silver and gold**: After the decline in precious metal prices due to factors such as the 7 - month PPI data in the US, there is support below. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price pullback [17][18] 3.4 Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports have uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 4900 - 5100 range [20][21] - **Caustic soda**: The supply is abundant, demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The price is expected to be oscillating upwards, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 2500 - yuan support level [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and profit are affected by factors such as oil prices and pure - benzene production. Supply has the potential to increase, demand has risks of weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate, temporarily focusing on the 7100 - 7400 range [24] - **Rubber**: The new - rubber release is affected by rain, and there is cost support. However, the inventory - removal speed may slow down in late August. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, focusing on the 15,200 - 15,600 range [26] - **Urea**: Supply is slightly decreasing, agricultural demand is scattered, and compound - fertilizer demand is increasing. The price has support below and pressure above, and range trading is recommended [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is slightly decreasing, demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be oscillating weakly [29] - **Polyolefins**: The cost has uncertainties, and downstream demand is in the off - season to peak - season transition. The price is expected to be oscillating weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2509 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [29][30] - **Soda ash**: The supply is expected to increase, and the industry is over - capacitated. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 09 contract [32] 3.5 Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, the macro environment is favorable, and with the approaching peak season, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34] - **Apples**: The inventory market is stable and dull, and the early - maturing market has quality differences. Based on low inventory and growth impacts, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34][35] - **Jujubes**: The枣树 is in the fruit - swelling stage, and the market has certain trading volumes. The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the near term [35] 3.6 Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The price is oscillating at the bottom. The 09 contract has a long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see. The 11 and 01 contracts have supply pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [36][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is sufficient, which restricts price increases. It is recommended to short on rallies. If the elimination process accelerates, there are opportunities to go long on the 12 and 01 contracts. Overall, it is recommended to short the near - term and go long on the far - term contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is oscillating in the range of 2250 - 2300. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [40][42] - **Soybean meal**: The US soybean supply - demand situation is tightening, but the price increase is limited. The domestic supply is abundant in August and September. It is recommended to hold long positions on the M2511 and M2601 contracts and roll them, and spot enterprises should build long positions [43] - **Oils**: Although there are short - term risks of high - level corrections, the overall trend is still upward. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage of rapeseed oil [44][50]

PVC周报： 反倾销税公布，弱势震荡 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 时间：2025/8/17 基本面上行驱动不足，弱势震荡 【本周概况】 行情复盘：本周PVC2509盘面的波动范围为【4938，5077】，开盘价为4980元/吨，收盘价为4954元/吨，周线3 连阴，振幅较上周减小。周内基本面边际恶化，社会库存连续8周累库，成本端电石重回弱势，周度下跌90元/ 吨，成本支撑转弱。周四大商所第二次对焦煤出限仓通知，成本端焦煤冲高回落，盘面跟随下跌；周五盘面延 续弱势，创周内低点4938元/吨。 【下周展望】 基本面格局依旧偏弱，预计下周盘面延续弱势震荡。一方面，社会库存持续累库，虽然下周装置检修计划增加 ，但新产能陆续释放，供给依旧承压运行。另一方面，8月14日印度公布最新的进口反倾销税，中国大陆上调 40-65美元/吨，美国下调32-55美元/吨，国内出口优势削减，预计下半年对印度出口增速将下滑，出口支撑弱 化。 【策略】 1）单边：空单持有。V2601关注区间【5000，5250】。 2）套保：盘面维持升水结构，产业 ...

研究所 政策影响加剧 菜油冲高回落 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年8月17日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆冲高回落，价格从低位大幅走高。周初美国总统在社交平台发布消息，市场对美国大豆出口需求改善憧憬。美国中西部部分农场地带炎热干燥天气带来提振， 此外美国农业部发布月度供需报告之前，粮食贸易商也在调整头寸。美豆触底反弹，随后USDA报告利多，种植面积大幅下调，抵消了美豆单产的上调，美豆产量同比大幅回落，库存创近三 年来新低，美豆不断走高。周四投资者获利了结叠加出口需求忧虑，豆油期货下挫，美豆高位回落。受此影响，连粕市场先扬后抑，主力合约一度涨至3190一线。国内豆粕现货相对坚挺，市 场提货明显增加，豆粕库存稳中有降。周初连粕一度走低，主要是由于美国总统社交平台发布消息，多头避险平仓。但随着中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明的发布，国内连粕止跌反弹，市 场对于未来供给的担忧再起，周三随着USDA报告利多出台，美豆走高以及巴西升贴水同涨，这使得进口成本 ...

2025年08月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：钢铁现实需求改善有限，高位回调 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求不及预期，偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求不及预期，偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪偏弱，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪偏弱，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：情绪回落，高位下修 | 7 | | 焦煤：情绪回落，高位下修 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 775. 0 | -20.0 | -2.52% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 451.957 | -462 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 进口矿 | 卡粉(65%) | 883. 0 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The unlocking of restricted shares for Sanyuan Biotech is a significant event, as it involves 92.946 million shares, accounting for 45.94% of the total share capital, which may impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [2][3][4]. Share Unlocking Details - Sanyuan Biotech announced that 92.946 million shares will be unlocked on August 11, representing 45.94% of the total share capital, primarily held by the controlling shareholder, Nie Zaijian [2][3]. - Out of the unlocked shares, 22.6719 million shares will be available for trading, while 70.2741 million shares will remain locked [3]. Shareholder Actions - In July, Sanyuan Biotech disclosed that shareholder Luxin Capital plans to reduce its holdings by up to 6 million shares within three months, raising concerns about the overall share liquidity [4]. Market Stability Measures - To stabilize market confidence amid the unlocking and potential shareholder sell-offs, Sanyuan Biotech's board approved a share buyback plan with a budget of 50 million to 100 million yuan [4]. Industry Challenges - Sanyuan Biotech faces challenges due to its reliance on international markets, with 70.70% of its revenue coming from exports in 2024 [6]. - The company is currently subject to a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 450.64% imposed by the U.S. Department of Commerce, which could significantly impact its sales in the U.S. market [6]. Product Structure Concerns - The company's product structure is heavily reliant on erythritol, which accounted for 72.30% of its revenue in 2024, making it vulnerable to market fluctuations [7]. - Sanyuan Biotech plans to diversify its product offerings and enhance R&D to mitigate risks associated with its current product concentration [7]. Market Conditions - The erythritol market has experienced significant price fluctuations, with prices dropping from 40,000 yuan/ton in 2021 to as low as 9,500 yuan/ton in the first half of 2023, affecting production incentives [7]. - The industry is currently in a phase of cyclical volatility, with excess capacity still a concern, although market mechanisms may lead to consolidation and improved conditions for efficient producers [7]. Future Outlook - Sanyuan Biotech is at a critical juncture, facing both internal and external pressures, and its ability to navigate these challenges for sustainable growth remains to be seen [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Sanyuan Biological regarding the lifting of restrictions on a significant portion of its shares has raised concerns among investors, particularly in light of the company's operational challenges and reliance on international markets [2][3][6]. Group 1: Share Unlocking and Market Impact - Sanyuan Biological will unlock 92.946 million shares, accounting for 45.94% of its total share capital, on August 11, with 22.672 million shares available for trading [2][3]. - The company is facing additional market pressure as other shareholders, such as Luxin Capital, plan to reduce their holdings by up to 6 million shares [3]. - The unlocking of shares is expected to increase the total supply in the market, potentially leading to short-term stock price volatility, especially for companies with weaker fundamentals [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Sanyuan Biological has experienced fluctuating performance, with revenues of 675 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 713 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, and net profits of 164 million yuan, 56 million yuan, and 105 million yuan during the same period [5][6]. - The company heavily relies on international markets, with 70.70% of its main business revenue coming from exports in 2024 [6]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 450.64% on Sanyuan Biological, which is expected to impact its sales in the U.S. market [6]. Group 3: Product Structure and Market Conditions - Sanyuan Biological's product structure is relatively singular, with erythritol revenue constituting 72.30% of total revenue in 2024 [7]. - The company acknowledges that fluctuations in the erythritol market or failures in new product development could adversely affect its performance [7]. - The erythritol market has seen significant price declines, with prices dropping from a peak of 40,000 yuan/ton in 2021 to as low as 9,500 yuan/ton in the first half of 2023, leading to reduced production and market exits by some companies [7]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - In response to market pressures, Sanyuan Biological has initiated a share buyback program, aiming to repurchase shares worth between 50 million and 100 million yuan [4]. - As the company navigates internal and external pressures, its ability to adapt and achieve sustainable growth remains to be seen [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Sanyuan Bio regarding the lifting of restrictions on a significant portion of its shares has raised concerns among investors, particularly in light of the company's operational challenges and reliance on international markets [2][3][5]. Share Unlocking and Market Impact - Sanyuan Bio will unlock 92.946 million shares on August 11, representing 45.94% of its total share capital, primarily held by the controlling shareholder, Nie Zaijian [2][3]. - Out of the unlocked shares, 22.6719 million shares will be available for trading, while 70.2741 million shares will remain locked [3]. - The company has also disclosed that another shareholder, Luxin Capital, plans to reduce its holdings by up to 6 million shares within three months, further intensifying market scrutiny [3]. Market Confidence and Stock Buyback - In response to the potential market pressure from the share unlock and shareholder reductions, Sanyuan Bio has initiated measures to stabilize market confidence, including a share buyback plan with a budget of 50 million to 100 million yuan [4]. - As of July 8, 2025, the company has repurchased approximately 2.33 million shares, accounting for 1.15% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of about 60.68 million yuan [4]. Operational Challenges - Sanyuan Bio has faced operational challenges, including a significant reliance on international markets, with 70.70% of its revenue coming from exports in 2024 [6]. - The company has experienced revenue fluctuations, with reported revenues of 675 million yuan in 2022, 500 million yuan in 2023, and 713 million yuan in 2024, alongside net profits of 164 million yuan, 56 million yuan, and 105 million yuan for the same years [6]. - The recent imposition of a 450.64% anti-dumping duty by the U.S. Department of Commerce poses additional challenges for the company's sales in the U.S. market [6][7]. Product Structure and Market Dynamics - Sanyuan Bio's product structure is heavily reliant on erythritol, which accounted for 72.30% of its revenue in 2024, raising concerns about vulnerability to market fluctuations [8]. - The erythritol market has experienced significant price volatility, with prices dropping from a peak of 40,000 yuan per ton in 2021 to as low as 9,500 yuan per ton in the first half of 2023 [8]. - The industry is currently in a phase of cyclical volatility, with excess capacity still a concern, although market mechanisms are expected to lead to consolidation and a more favorable competitive landscape for efficient producers [8]. Future Outlook - Sanyuan Bio is at a critical juncture, facing both internal and external pressures, and its ability to navigate these challenges and achieve sustainable growth remains to be seen [9].