| | 操作评级 | 2026年03月02日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | なな☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 豆粕 莱粕 | なな☆ ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | なな☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约经过近期上涨之后出现大幅减仓,价格冲高回落。目前现货市场观望情绪偏浓厚,并且在等待国储拍卖动 向。国产大豆和进口大豆价差2月份快速扩大之后也表现为徘徊态势，美盘大豆近期偏强，得益于美国生物柴油政策的提振以及 对贸易端的乐观预期，不过从技术层面看，经过近期的上涨叠加中东局势推升，美豆接近技术压力位。密切关注中东局势对大 宗商品及物流的影响。短期注意国产大豆高位大幅减仓带来的波动风险。 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 铁矿: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四铁矿收涨。夜盘收涨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | 1、2026 | 年 | 2 | 月 | 18 | 日，巴西外贸委员会管理执行委员会(GECEX)发布 | 2026 | 年第 | 856 | 号决议，对原产于中国的镀锌和镀铝锌板卷作出反倾销肯定性终裁，决定对中国涉 | | 案产品征收为期 | 5 | 年的反倾销税，税额为 | 284.98－709.63 | 美元/吨。 | 2、026 | 年春节前后，中国船舶工业签约捷报频传，多家企业在国际市场斩获多项重 | | | | | 磅订单，涵盖散货船、滚装船、重吊船等多元船型，展现中国造船业的强劲竞争力 | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 与全球认可度，为全 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company generated revenue of $2.9 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline driven by unfavorable pricing and mix, and lower volumes in both TiO2 and zircon [10] - Loss from operations was $253 million, and net loss attributable to Tronox was $470 million, including $233 million of restructuring and other charges [10] - Adjusted EBITDA was $336 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.6% [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - TiO2 volumes in Q4 reached their highest point of the year, with a 9% increase in volumes, although prices declined by 4% [11] - Zircon revenues increased 32% sequentially, driven by a 42% increase in volumes, despite a 7% decline in price [12] - Revenue from other products increased 10% compared to the prior year, mainly due to higher pig iron volumes [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced market share gains in India, Latin America, and the Middle East, supported by anti-dumping measures [11] - North America and Europe saw lower volumes consistent with normal fourth quarter demand patterns [11] - Early indications show positive momentum in TiO2 pricing, with expectations of a 2%-4% sequential increase in Q1 2026 [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced the closure of two pigment plants to streamline operations and improve cost structure [7] - A sustainable cost improvement program is in place, with over $90 million in run rate savings achieved, significantly exceeding the original target [8] - The company is advancing its rare earth strategy, focusing on building out a cracking and leaching facility in Australia [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about market dynamics improving, with TiO2 prices expected to rise due to recent price increase announcements [9] - The company anticipates positive free cash flow in 2026, supported by actions on inventory, cost, and portfolio rationalization [10] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach to cash preservation and inventory management [6] Other Important Information - The company ended the year with total debt of $3.2 billion and net debt of $3 billion, with a liquidity increase to $674 million [15] - Capital expenditures for the year totaled $341 million, with a focus on maintenance and safety [16] - The company returned $48 million to shareholders in the form of dividends paid in 2025 [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Free cash flow guidance and EBITDA expectations - Management indicated that achieving breakeven would require approximately $350 million in EBITDA, with a focus on cash generation and cost control [26][30] Question: Production cost dynamics and expectations - Management expects production costs to improve sequentially, driven by operational efficiencies and the sustainable cost improvement program [35][66] Question: Market dynamics and pricing for TiO2 and zircon - Management noted that the industry is seeing price increases and that there is a resolve among competitors to improve pricing discipline [81][83]

（原标题：越南对印尼及马来西亚无色浮法玻璃征收临时反倾销税） 初步调查显示，来自上述两国的倾销进口商品已对越南产业造成显著损害。尤其在工贸部启动调查 后，相关产品进口量仍持续大幅增长，同比增幅超过61.82%。 为遏制涉案产品进口的快速增加，避免对未来越南产业造成严重且难以弥补的损害，工贸部决定采 取临时反倾销措施。下一步，工贸部将继续依照《对外贸易管理法》，与相关方协作，对其提供的信息 与文件进行收集核实，并结合案件影响的全面评估，最终作出调查结论。 工贸部依据《对外贸易管理法》，与有关单位协调，充分评估了涉案商品倾销行为对越南制造业的 影响，以及印尼和马来西亚相关企业的倾销程度。 越南《越南经济时报》2月4日报道， 1月30日，越南工贸部发布第228/QD-BCT号决定，对原产于 印度尼西亚和马来西亚的部分无色浮法玻璃制品征收临时反倾销税，税率范围为15.17%至63.39%。 ...

Group 1: US-Bangladesh Trade Agreement - The US and Bangladesh have reached a trade agreement that reduces Bangladesh's tariffs on goods exported to the US to 19%, down from 37% to 20% previously set by President Trump [1] - Bangladesh will lower non-tariff barriers for US goods and commit to maintaining labor rights and environmental protections [1] - The US will allow certain textiles and garments produced in Bangladesh using US raw materials to enjoy tariff exemptions [1] Group 2: Market Access and Product Categories - Bangladesh has agreed to provide significant market access for US industrial and agricultural products, including chemicals, medical devices, machinery, automotive parts, soy products, dairy, beef, poultry, nuts, and fruits [1] - Non-tariff barriers will be reduced by accepting US vehicle safety and emissions standards, recognizing FDA certifications, and lifting import restrictions on remanufactured products [1] - Upcoming commercial agreements include aircraft procurement and approximately $3.5 billion in US agricultural product purchases, with Bangladesh expected to buy $15 billion worth of US energy products over the next 15 years [1] Group 3: EU Trade Barriers on Chinese Ceramics - The European Commission has imposed a 79% anti-dumping duty on ceramic tableware and kitchenware from China, effective from February 7, replacing previous rates of 13.1% to 36.1% [2] - This measure, which began in 2013, was intensified after the EU determined that previous tariffs were insufficient to address "unfair competition" [2] - The EU found that Chinese ceramic manufacturers benefit from special advantages in financing, land, and raw materials, leading to artificially low export prices [2] Group 4: Impact on Chinese Ceramic Industry - China is the largest ceramic supplier to the EU, holding over 40% of the import share, with the affected market valued at approximately €320 million [4] - The increase in ceramic tariffs is indicative of broader trade tensions between China and the EU, with 47 out of 63 ongoing trade investigations by the EU targeting Chinese products [4] - Major markets, including the US, EU, Mexico, and Brazil, have established trade barriers against Chinese ceramic products, posing unprecedented challenges for Chinese exporters [4]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's Ministry of Industry and Foreign Trade has approved anti-dumping duties on color-coated steel plates imported from China and India for five years, while maintaining temporary anti-dumping measures on polyester fabric imports from China [1] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - Brazil will impose a five-year anti-dumping tax on color-coated steel plates imported from China and India [1] - The temporary anti-dumping measures on polyester fabric imports from China will not be lifted [1] Group 2: Tariff Adjustments - Import tariffs on hydrochloric acid chloramine solution and integrated nasal spray devices have been reduced from 7.2% to 0% [1] - Import tariffs on various medications, including Amprenavir, have also been reduced to 0% [1] - Tariffs on polyester fiber yarn and titanium dioxide have been set to 0% due to supply shortages, with quotas of 4,000 tons and 5,000 tons respectively [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The market shows a strong expectation of demand improvement. Although the downstream demand is expected to decline before the Spring Festival and the auction performance is average, the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented. After the Spring Festival, there may be a certain restocking demand for coking coal, and the coking enterprises need to maintain basic daily consumption. The relaxation of the "Three Red Lines" policy for real - estate enterprises is beneficial to the real estate and upstream industries. The coking coal futures contract is expected to continue to rise at the opening today, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 1200 at the close [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1165.0 yuan/ton, up 2.69% from the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1723.0 yuan/ton, up 2.32% from the opening of the day session. In last night's session, the main coking coal contract closed at 1193.0 yuan/ton, up 2.40% from the close of the day session, and the main coke contract closed at 1756.5 yuan/ton, up 1.94% from the close of the day session [1] 3.2 Important News - On January 28, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the purchase price of coke for the first round. The price of wet - quenched coke was raised by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of dry - quenched coke was raised by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on January 30, 2026 [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 823.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.58 million tons, an increase of 0.4%; the total inventory was 1278.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.43 million tons, an increase of 1.7%; the weekly apparent consumption was 801.74 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0% [1] - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.978 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 160,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 5.496 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09 million tons [1] - According to Mysteel's research on the Spring Festival shutdown of 95 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, most of them will shut down in February. Among them, the number of shut - down steel mills from February 1 to February 8 is the largest, reaching 44, accounting for 47.83%, close to half [1] 3.3 Market Logic - India has listed coking coal as a key strategic mineral. As the world's second - largest steel producer with rapid steel production expansion, India's domestic coking coal production cannot meet its demand and it relies on Australian imports. At the end of last December, the Indian government imposed anti - dumping duties on low - ash metallurgical coke imported from six countries including China, which further drives up the demand for domestic coking coal [1] - In the domestic market, the downstream demand is expected to decline before the Spring Festival, and the auction performance is average. Although the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented today, there is unlikely to be a second - round increase before the Spring Festival. Macroscopically, many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, which is beneficial to the real - estate and upstream industries. During the Spring Festival, the supply side will reduce production, and coking enterprises need to maintain basic daily consumption. There may be a certain restocking demand for coking coal after the Spring Festival [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The main coking coal contract has risen strongly, with short - sellers significantly reducing their positions for two consecutive days, driving long - sellers to increase their positions and the price to rise last night. It is expected to continue to rise at the opening today, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 1200 at the close [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the U.S. to impose a 25% additional tariff on countries trading with Iran is seen as a strategic move targeting China, leveraging sanctions against Iran to pressure China on trade and geopolitical issues [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Announcement - The U.S. intends to impose a 25% additional tariff on all countries engaging in business with Iran, effective immediately and unchangeable [1]. - This move is perceived as a tactic to indirectly target China, which has been Iran's largest trading partner for a decade, with trade volumes approaching $60 billion [3]. Group 2: China's Response - In response to the U.S. tariff threat, China's Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No. 5, continuing anti-dumping duties on solar-grade polysilicon from the U.S. and South Korea for an extended period of five years starting January 14, 2026 [5][6]. - The anti-dumping tax rates for U.S. companies range from 53.3% to 57%, while South Korean companies face rates between 4.4% and 113.8% [7]. Group 3: Historical Context of China's Measures - China's anti-dumping measures are not a reaction to the recent U.S. threats but are based on over a decade of compliance and regulatory monitoring, with the first announcement made in January 2014 [11]. - The decision to extend these measures was based on a thorough investigation that concluded the termination of anti-dumping duties would likely lead to renewed low-price dumping by U.S. and South Korean companies, harming China's domestic polysilicon industry [13]. Group 4: Importance of Polysilicon in the Solar Industry - Polysilicon is crucial for the photovoltaic industry, serving as the primary material for manufacturing silicon wafers and solar cells [17]. - China dominates the global photovoltaic supply chain, holding 98% of silicon wafer production, 85% of solar cell production, and 80% of module production, making it a key player in the transition to carbon neutrality [19]. Group 5: Impact of U.S. and South Korean Practices - Historically, U.S. and South Korean companies have used their technological advantages to engage in price dumping, significantly impacting China's polysilicon market, which saw a reduction from 43 domestic companies to just 8 due to competitive pressures [23]. - The U.S. has also imposed additional tariffs on Chinese products under the guise of national security, creating a multi-layered blockade against China [26]. Group 6: Current Market Dynamics - In 2024, China's polysilicon exports surged by 300%, while imports fell significantly, indicating a shift in market dynamics where U.S. and South Korean products now hold a negligible market share in China [32]. - The continuation of anti-dumping duties serves to mitigate risks and protect China's domestic industry from potential future dumping practices [33]. Group 7: Broader Implications - The contrasting approaches of the U.S. and China highlight a significant difference in trade strategies, with the U.S. relying on unilateral tariffs and China adhering to established legal frameworks [35][39]. - The U.S. has shown signs of softening its stance post-announcement, recognizing the interdependence of markets, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and agriculture [41][43]. Group 8: Future Outlook - The continuation of anti-dumping duties by China not only safeguards its polysilicon industry but also reshapes the global photovoltaic supply chain, potentially forcing U.S. and South Korean companies to redirect their exports to regions less affected by these tariffs [47]. - The competition in the photovoltaic sector is expected to shift from price wars to technology battles, with both U.S. and Chinese companies needing to innovate to maintain their market positions [54][56].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, precious metal prices rose and then fell. London gold exceeded $4,600 per ounce, and London silver exceeded $89 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the US core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year. Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials. Domestic gold ETFs had a small outflow, while some inventories changed [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Gold prices are rising steadily, so it is recommended to go long. Silver has strong speculative sentiment and large fluctuations, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.81% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 24,375 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate rose slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Although the terminal consumption of the electrolytic aluminum market is under pressure, the expectation of loose macro - policies and geopolitical risks provide strong support for aluminum prices, which are expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 3.00% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2,780 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Alumina supply is gradually recovering, inventory is accumulating, and the price of bauxite is falling. The oversupply situation is difficult to change, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On January 13, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24,235 yuan per ton and 17,310 yuan per ton respectively [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The zinc market is driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamental support is insufficient. The lead market shows weak reality, with weak consumption, increasing inventory, and expanding spot discounts [2][3]. - **Trading Strategies**: For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see. For lead, it can be traded within a range or treated with a short - bias [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the main 05 contract closed at 8,635 yuan per ton, a decrease of 120 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased this week, mainly in Xinjiang. Social inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: The fundamental support is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 8,400 - 9,200 yuan per ton. It is advisable to go short lightly at high prices [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 166,980 yuan per ton, an increase of 7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased. Supply increased in December but is expected to decrease in January. Demand for some battery materials is expected to decline, and inventory is expected to accumulate in Q1 [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Due to inflation concerns on the supply side and battery export expectations on the demand side, prices are expected to be supported, and it is easy for prices to rise and difficult to fall [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 49,005 yuan per ton, a decrease of 990 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Market regulatory authorities interviewed photovoltaic associations and enterprises, causing market pessimism. Supply decreased slightly, and demand for some downstream products declined [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: There are still rumors of joint production cuts on the supply side, and demand may not be weak in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3,169 yuan per ton, a rise of 14 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar inventory decreased, and the supply - demand situation is weak with significant structural differentiation. Rebar futures are at a large discount, and steel mills are in a state of continuous loss [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions in the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3,140 - 3,190 yuan per ton [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 824 yuan per ton, a rise of 8 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased. Steel mill profits are poor, and port inventory has a certain structural shortage. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 810 - 840 yuan per ton [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1,202 yuan per ton, a fall of 11.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill profits are deteriorating, and coking coal supply - demand is weak. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. Aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2605 contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1,180 - 1,220 yuan per ton [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fell, continuing to digest the USDA bearish report [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is loose in the near - term, and the global supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed. US soybean crushing increased slightly, while exports decreased [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: US soybeans are weak and in the process of finding a bottom. Domestic far - month contracts are suppressed by South American supply expectations, and near - month contracts depend on the game between the amount of state - reserve sales and customs clearance [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices rose slightly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has slowed down compared to last year, and farmers are reluctant to sell. Downstream inventory has increased, and procurement enthusiasm will decline [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market fell due to the uncertainty of B50 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased seasonally in December but increased year - on - year. Exports increased. The near - term inventory increased [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Edible oils are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and trade in the weak seasonal production cut cycle in the long - term. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies in the medium - term [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5,274 yuan per ton, a rise of 0.27% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International raw sugar prices fell due to Indian production pressure. Domestic sales progress is slow, and SR05 is under pressure from both imported and domestic sugar [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight, ICE US cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, and international crude oil prices rose significantly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton production forecast decreased in 25/26. Domestic cotton futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and the upward trend is still valid [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Temporarily wait and see. The price reference range is 14,600 - 15,000 yuan per ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices fell, and spot prices were stable [6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: The laying - hen inventory decreased, but the de - capacity slowed down. Festival stocking drove demand, but supply is sufficient [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6][7]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices rose slightly [6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: The January pig slaughter volume is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end. Demand is stable in the short - term and will increase at the end of the month [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Supply is decreasing, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate stronger [6][7]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 9,779 yuan per ton, a rise of 1.55% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: This year's apple production is low, with poor quality. Cold - storage apple sales are slow, and there is competition from other fruits. The post - holiday price risk depends on pre - holiday sales [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract rebounded slightly yesterday. The basis strengthened, and the market transaction was okay [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is rising but slowing down. Demand in the agricultural film sector is in the off - season, while other sectors' demand is stable [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate stronger, with the upside limited by the import window. In the medium - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4,888 yuan per ton, a rise of 1.7% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the export tax - rebate cancellation policy, supply is at a high level, demand is seasonally weakening, and inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Supply - demand is weak, and prices are low. It is advisable to wait and see [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1,097 yuan per ton, a fall of 3% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass production cuts increased, sales improved, supply decreased, and inventory decreased from a high level. Downstream demand is weak, and production is at a loss [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to go long on glass and short on soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract rebounded slightly yesterday. The basis was stable, and the market transaction was average [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is rising, and the export window is open. Downstream start - up rates increased due to national subsidy policies [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate stronger, with the upside limited by the import window. In the long - term, it is recommended to go short at high prices [8][9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose for five consecutive days due to geopolitical risks [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is still large, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is above the five - year average [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is not recommended to chase high prices. Wait for opportunities to go short or buy out - of - the - money put options [9]. Styrene (EB) - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The market trading atmosphere was average [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories are at normal - to - high levels. Demand is in the off - season, and the start - up rate decreased [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate, with the upside limited by the import window. In the second quarter, it is recommended to go long on styrene or do pure benzene reverse spreads and long on styrene profits [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1,211 yuan per ton, a fall of 1.3% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash supply is recovering, demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to do reverse spreads or go long on glass and short on soda ash [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the continuation of anti-dumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea, effective January 14, 2026, for a period of five years, with rates ranging from 53.3% to 57% for U.S. companies and 4.4% to 113.8% for South Korean companies [1] Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce will conduct a final review investigation of the anti-dumping measures applicable to imported solar-grade polysilicon from the U.S. and South Korea starting January 14, 2025 [1] - The Ministry determined that if the anti-dumping measures are terminated, the dumping of solar-grade polysilicon from the U.S. and South Korea may continue or recur, potentially causing further harm to China's solar-grade polysilicon industry [1] - The Ministry also announced the continuation of countervailing duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from the U.S., effective January 14, 2026, for five years, with rates ranging from 0% to 2.1% for U.S. companies [1] Group 2 - Solar-grade polysilicon is primarily used in the production of solar-grade monocrystalline silicon rods and directional solidification multicrystalline silicon ingots, serving as the main raw material for crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells [1]