人到五十岁，选择将50%的存款投入到三个方面，十年后你将会感激自己的明智决策！ 每个人都会经历这样的阶段：工作多年，孩子成家立业，自己逐渐步入中老年。到五十岁时，你可能已 经积累了一定的财富，经历过市场的波动，开始思考如何更有效、更安全地使用这些存款。你会意识 到，理财不仅仅是为了存钱，而是让这些钱为你创造价值，甚至在未来某个时刻带来意想不到的回报。 2. 投资理财——让钱为你工作 五十岁时，许多人已经积累了一些财富，但有些人可能习惯把钱存进银行，享受稳定但较低的回报。这 个时候，是时候考虑让钱为自己创造更多财富，尤其是通过低风险的理财产品。 那么，五十岁时，如何做出正确的财务决策呢？今天，我将推荐三项投资方向，利用50%的存款，十年 后你一定会为今天的选择感到庆幸。 1. 投资健康——你的健康就是你的财富 "健康是最大的财富。"古希腊哲学家柏拉图的这句话至今依然适用。年纪大了，健康的重要性愈发突 出。没有健康，再多的钱也无法享用。此时，建议你把50%的存款中的一部分用于提高自己的健康水 平。健康的投资方式并不一定要花费巨资去健身房，或进行昂贵的体检，而是在日常生活中注重细节， 为自己的健康买一份"长寿保险" ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts a 385.3 billion yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to a significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing. Despite the large gap, considering the central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market, the money market interest rate is expected to remain loose in May. The DR007 central rate is expected to decline, driving down short - term bond yields [6][21][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 5 - Month Liquidity Gap Prediction Analysis - **Factor 1: Government Debt Issuance and Fund Allocation** - In May, the net financing scale of government debt is expected to increase significantly compared to April, with a potential impact on the money market. The estimated net financing scale of national debt in May is 609.3 billion yuan, a 343.6 - billion - yuan increase from April, and the proportion of ultra - long national debt issuance may rise. The estimated new local debt in May is 516.7 billion yuan, a 263.3 - billion - yuan increase from April. The total government debt supply scale in May may reach 1.13 trillion yuan, a 606.9 - billion - yuan increase from April [8][10]. - **Factor 2: Regular Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure** - Historically, May is usually a month of fiscal net expenditure, but the scale is small. Excluding the impact of "tax refund for excess input VAT" in 2022, the average net fiscal expenditure from 2020 - 2021 and 2023 - 2024 was 11.57 billion yuan, which is used to estimate the fiscal net income in May 2025 and will supplement the money market [14]. - **Factor 3: Credit Delivery** - May is not a peak month for credit delivery, so the impact on liquidity consumption is small. Given the improvement in credit delivery indicated by the increase in the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill transfer discount rate in late April and the high year - on - year growth rate of "deposits subject to reserve requirements" in March 2025, it is assumed that the growth rate will drop to 6.5% in May, and the required reserve for deposits will increase by 7.22 billion yuan, supplementing the corresponding liquidity [17][18]. - **Factor 4: Changes in M0 and Foreign Exchange Holdings** - After the May Day holiday, residents' cash flows back to the banking system, and historically, the M0 scale in May usually decreases month - on - month, supplementing 9.76 billion yuan of liquidity. The change in foreign exchange holdings in May is assumed to be the average of the previous three months, with a potential consumption of 6.39 billion yuan of liquidity [20]. - **Summary** - After comprehensive calculation of the above four factors, there is expected to be a 385.3 - billion - yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to the significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing [21]. Outlook on Short - Term Bonds - The central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market can be observed from two aspects: the decline in the money market interest rate near the end of April, indicating low cross - month pressure; and the 50 - billion - yuan net MLF injection in April, a significant increase from before. - The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and other measures. It is expected that monetary policy will cooperate, the money market will remain loose, the DR007 central rate will decline, and short - term bond yields will follow suit [22][24][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market may evolve in a volatile manner but is more likely to break downward. Long - term bonds are more cost - effective, and it is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. The bond market has been volatile in the past two weeks due to weak fundamentals constraining interest rate increases and high short - term interest rates constraining decreases. In the future, monetary easing is the general trend, and the supply pressure of government bonds in the second quarter is similar to that in the first quarter. Interest rates are unlikely to break upward significantly, and there is a possibility of a downward break driven by fundamental data [6][23]. Summary by Related Content Current Bond Market Situation - This week, the bond market continued its volatile pattern, with limited changes in interest rates across all tenors. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond rates rose slightly by 1.1bps and 2.3bps to 1.66% and 1.93% respectively. The money market continued to ease, and the certificate of deposit (CD) rate remained flat at 1.76%. The credit bond interest rate also increased slightly. The bond market has been in a narrow - range volatile stage for two consecutive weeks, with the 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuating narrowly around 1.63% - 1.67% [1][9]. Factors Constraining Interest Rate Movements Constraints on Interest Rate Increases - Fundamental pressures have constrained the upward space of interest rates. Due to trade conflicts, external demand risks have increased, and domestic demand has also shown signs of weakening. High - frequency data has weakened since April, and indicators such as EPMI and BCI have declined. However, the slowdown in high - frequency data and sentiment indices is relatively gentle, and the short - term support for interest rate decreases from the fundamentals is insufficient [2][10]. Constraints on Interest Rate Decreases - High short - term interest rates and the non - implementation of loose monetary policy have constrained the downward space of interest rates. After the intensification of external shocks, the market once expected rapid implementation of loose monetary policy, but subsequent policies were more passive and cooperative. The 2 - year Treasury bond rate first dropped rapidly and then rebounded, and the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds has narrowed to the lowest level in recent years, reflecting a decline in the market's short - term expectation of monetary easing [3][11]. Breakout Directions of Interest Rates Limited Upward Breakout Possibility - Interest rate constraints mainly come from short - term interest rates. Although monetary policy is currently passive, it does not mean that it will not be loose. The Politburo meeting emphasized moderately loose monetary policy. The money market center has shifted downward, and the CD rate has remained stable. The spread between CDs and Treasury bonds has narrowed, limiting the upward space of short - term Treasury bonds and the pressure on the overall interest rate curve. From the perspective of bond supply, the pressure in the second quarter is only slightly higher than that in the first quarter, with estimated net local bond financing of 4.4 trillion yuan in the second quarter, compared with 4.1 trillion yuan in the first quarter [4][13][15]. Possibility of Downward Breakout - With changes in the fundamentals, there is a possibility of an interest rate downward breakout, with fundamental data being the core concern. In April, industrial product prices declined significantly, indicating a further decline in the PPI year - on - year. Falling prices will lead to a relatively certain decline in nominal interest rates. Although high - frequency economic indicators show a slowdown in economic volume, the extent has not significantly exceeded expectations. The overall impact amplitude needs to be determined by subsequent fundamental data. If the fundamental pressure is large enough, reserve policies, including monetary policy, will be introduced, leading to a downward breakout of interest rates [5][18]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. Since the probability of an interest rate downward breakout is higher, long - term bonds are still advantageous, and long - term interest rates are expected to reach new lows [6][23].

1.65%定价合理吗？ 过去一周，10 年国债利率在 1.65%附近窄幅区间震荡，等待海内外形势进一步明朗。市场选择在这一位置等待是否合 理？考虑到贸易摩擦传导路径、各国可能的政策响应，以及最终对产业链的影响均存在高度不确定性，本文不直接量 化事件冲击本身，而是尝试通过横向比较不同大类资产对该事件冲击的价格反应，间接衡量债市反应强度是否合理。 视角一：事件冲击后，各大类资产价格对应的利率中枢是多少？ 分析方法：选择与利率高度相关的资产价格（包括螺纹钢、煤焦钢矿指数、非金属建材指数等反映国内需求的商品价 格指标；伦敦金、铜金比等代表全球需求与风险情绪的定价锚；以及沪深 300、房地产指数、恒生科技、MSCI 全球等 一系列海内外核心股指，用于刻画市场风险偏好、基本面预期、流动性等变化），针对这些资产价格构建与 10 年期国 债利率的回归模型，并推导出利率中枢的合理范围。 结论： 视角二：外部冲击后，全球 10 年期国债利率下行了多少？ 外部冲击显著升温以来，全球主要经济体 10 年期国债收益率多数下行，反映出较为一致的避险情绪。中国 10 年期国 债收益率下行 13.94bp，在全球样本中位于中等偏低位置。若剔 ...

Grace Ong LSEG企业解决方案主管 步入2025年，全球经济波动正深刻影响着各行业。地缘政治紧张局势、货币政策转向及供应链中断，既为 企业带来严峻挑战，也孕育着新的发展机遇。 本文将剖析全球经济波动背后的关键驱动因素，以及企业可 以用来应对的策略。 2025年第一季度，经济波动持续塑造全球经济格局，对各行业的企业产生深刻影响。地缘政治紧张、货币 政策转变与供应链中断的相互作用，为管理全球运营及资本流动的企业带来严峻挑战，也孕育着新的发展机 遇。 尽管市场波动看似常态，但近期趋势为利率和外汇市场增添了新的复杂层面。在本文中，我们将探讨这种波 动性产生的原因及其影响，包括地缘政治与经济因素、利率决策与货币影响、企业战略，以及贸易融资与供 应链所起的作用。 地缘政治与经济： 全球紧张局势影响加剧 全球地缘政治格局正不断变化，尤其是美国在关税和贸易政策上的调整，为全球带来了不确定性。各国正采 取贸易壁垒作为反制措施，并运用货币政策来维持经济稳定，避免商业活动受到干扰。 近期美国通胀数据呈现混杂信号：2月消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨3.1%，生产者物价指数（PPI）同比 上涨3.4%，两者均低于市场预期， ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 基金投顾，顾名思义，就是基金的投资顾问。 很多行业都有顾问，特别是一些专业性很强的行业。 例如， • 看病吃药，需要医生，医生就是顾问； 什么是「固收+」，有哪些品种? • 有法律问题，需要律师，律师也是顾问。 基金投资也是如此。 基金投顾的诞生，正是为了解决基金行业存在的"基金赚钱，基民不赚钱"的问题。 那么，基金投顾有哪些优势？ 是如何通过"投"和"顾"，帮助投资者获得好收益的呢？ 这里有一门免费课程，详细介绍了基金投顾的相关知识。 长按识别下方二维码，添加@课程小助手，回复「 基金投顾 」即可领取～ 『 银行螺丝钉 1420 07 5 - 1 - 快速了解基金投顾 课程介绍 ·基金投顾是什么 ·基金投顾有哪些优势 · 如何通过「投」和「顾」帮你 获得好收益 #螺丝钉小知识 und 银行螺丝钉 固收其实很好理解,就是固定收益。 例如纯债,就属于固收类品种。类似的, 还有像一些理财,也属于这一类。 在纯债的基础上，增加少量的股票、可转 债等资产,就属于「固收+」类基金。 「出版」、十年中世出或公如我· ' 凹拟「」） 工玄四鬥卧儿 ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ...