Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of urea is 1, indicating a neutral view on the market trend [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, both spot and futures of urea may rebound, but the trend remains under pressure; in the medium - to long - term, the price center may gradually decline due to supply pressure and weak domestic demand [1][3] - It is recommended to focus on whether international high urea prices can boost domestic export flow, the transmission of exports to spot transactions, and export policy adjustments [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,661 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,665 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the trading volume was 263,369 lots, an increase of 31,209 lots; the open interest was 284,793 lots, a decrease of 22,286 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 5,962 tons, a decrease of 5 tons; and the turnover was 877,243 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 109,071 ten - thousand yuan [1] - The basis in Shandong region was 49, down 45 from the previous day; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was - 61, unchanged; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price (the cheapest deliverable) was 89, unchanged; the difference between UR09 and UR01 was 13, up 2 from the previous day [1] Spot Market - The factory prices of some urea enterprises were stable, while some decreased. For example, the price of Yankuang Xinjiang decreased by 45 yuan to 1,615 yuan/ton, and the price of Jiangsu Linggu decreased by 20 yuan to 1,810 yuan/ton [1] - The trading prices of traders in Shandong region decreased by 30 yuan to 1,710 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi region remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton [1] - The urea production start - up rate was 89.95%, up 0.89 percentage points from the previous day, and the daily output was 206,830 tons, an increase of 2,050 tons [1] 2. Industry News Spot Market - Due to the weak demand for compound fertilizers and high intermediate inventories, the spot market has been weak. However, last Friday, driven by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, international urea prices rebounded sharply, and the domestic speculative sentiment strengthened, leading to a short - term rebound in spot prices [1] - As of June 11, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1771 million tons, an increase of 0.1417 million tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 13.69%. The inventory of some provinces increased, while that of some decreased. It is expected that the inventory accumulation of urea production enterprises will slow down next week [1][3] Futures Market - In the short - term, the continuous escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a sharp rise in international urea prices, generating expectations of improved Chinese export flow, which has boosted market speculative sentiment and led to better spot transactions and a slight price rebound from Friday to the weekend [3] - In the medium - term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions. The weak domestic demand is due to the pre - emptive agricultural demand and high intermediate trader inventories. With an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, the medium - to long - term pressure on urea remains high [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and closed low on June 10, 2025, with a nearly 2% decline in the afternoon. The market sentiment is expected to continue weakening. Although supply has decreased slightly due to temporary inspections in some factories, the daily output remains around 200,000 tons, limiting the upside of the futures price. The demand is weak, with slow agricultural demand and low operating loads in compound fertilizer factories. After the wheat harvest, agricultural demand is expected to increase, but it may not change the oversupply situation. The current low price may lead to a rebound, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened high and closed low, and the market sentiment is expected to weaken. Supply decreased slightly, but daily output is still around 200,000 tons, restricting the upside. Demand is weak, and after the wheat harvest, agricultural demand may increase but has limited support [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,700 yuan/ton and closed at 1,678 yuan/ton, a -1.24% change. The trading volume was 268,833 lots (+2,976 lots). The positions of the top 20 main players showed a decrease of 6,305 lots in long positions and an increase of 955 lots in short positions. On June 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,051, a decrease of 2 from the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: After a price cut yesterday, orders improved and prices were slightly raised. However, with the decline in futures today, the market sentiment is expected to weaken. The ex-factory prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market price was stable, while the futures closing price declined. The basis of the September contract in Shandong strengthened by 19 yuan/ton to 82 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: On June 10, 2025, the national daily urea output was 202,200 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous day [9].