Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. - The gas - fired plants have basically resumed production, and production is normal during the Chinese New Year. Agricultural demand for goods is good, and the peak season for wheat top - dressing after the Spring Festival is approaching. Industrial demand is gradually weakening. - The overall volatility of the macro - market and commodities increased last week, but urea remained relatively stable. After the Indian tender was issued on Saturday, the futures rose on Monday. The probability of spot price reduction before the festival is low, and the futures will fluctuate within a narrow range [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Spot Market Dynamics - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan's prices at the lower end [4]. 3.2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the futures showed a downward - opening and mostly weak - oscillating trend. As of February 9, the main May contract of urea was reported at 1788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the settlement price on January 19. The weekly trading volume was 12.8833 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.4244 million tons; the open interest was 7.5489 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5991 million tons. - After the Indian tender was released on Saturday, the domestic market sentiment improved, and the futures rose. Last week, the increase in urea futures was less than that of the spot, and the basis strengthened. As of February 9, the 05 - contract basis was 2 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 18 yuan/ton. - On February 9, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10860, a week - on - week decrease of 396 [6][9]. 3.3. Urea Supply - From January 29 to February 4, the weekly urea output was 1.4692 million tons, an increase of 14310 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.98%, and the average daily output was 209900 tons. The coal - based weekly output was 1.2428 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the gas - based weekly output was 226400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.71%. The small - particle weekly output was 117780 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%; the large - particle weekly output was 291400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. - It is expected that 4 - 5 enterprises will resume production in the next cycle. As of February 9, 2026, the national daily urea output was 210000 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.26%. - The prices of coking coal and anthracite coal are expected to remain stable, and the price of liquefied natural gas has increased. The price of synthetic ammonia has decreased, and the price of urea has increased. The methanol price has remained stable [12][14][15]. 3.4. Urea Demand - As of February 9, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was basically flat last week. Before the festival, they continued to stock up for production, and the inventory in the factory decreased slightly. The terminal sales were good. The last operating data before the holiday is expected to show a week - on - week decline. As of February 6, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 41.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. - From January 30 to February 6, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.95%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from the previous period and 7.73 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Before the holiday, downstream panel factories and melamine production entered the holiday mode and are currently at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [17]. 3.5. Inventory Data - As of February 6, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918500 tons, a decrease of 26400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, and 827400 tons lower than the same period last year. The downstream agricultural demand for goods is smooth, but the factory demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and the downstream inventory is still being smoothly reduced, which verifies the tight - balance supply - demand logic and supports the urea market. The port sample inventory was 165000 tons, an increase of 21000 tons from the previous week [20]. 3.6. International Market - India's RCF issued a new round of urea import tender, with a target purchase volume of 1.5 million tons. Under the influence of the new Indian tender, market confidence is boosted, and international urea prices are expected to continue to rise. - As of February 9, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China was 422.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - particle urea in China was 455 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.5 US dollars/ton. The prices in other regions also showed varying degrees of increase [22].

【冠通期货研究报告】 现货方面：昨天期货盘面翻红，今日现货市场试探性小涨，但面临假期收 单，涨价不畅。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1700-1760 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。 尿素日报：面对假期前吸单压力 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，日内下跌。昨天期货盘面翻红，今日现货市场试探性 小涨，但面临假期收单，涨价不畅。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出 厂报价范围多在 1700-1760 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，近期新 增两家气头装置复产，按照目前日均产量测算，1 月份产量预计在 628 万吨， 高于往年同期水平。临近过年，上游工厂吸单压力增大，预计春节前待发不断 提高，若无利好，现货预计有降价吸单的计划。本期复合肥开工小规模提升， 环保预警解除但假期前提升受限，等开年后逐渐进入农耕旺季，下游工厂对于 尿素需求将进入年内高峰期，届时下游拿货有回暖。本期库存数据继续减少， 主要系农业提货导致，且临近过年，下游备货增多，预计年前库存去化为主， 后续假期库存将有增加。今日大宗商品普遍下跌，尿素需求偏弱运行，一方面 临近假期需求边际减 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：回吐涨幅 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开低走，下跌超 1%。前几日收单情况尚佳，今日现货报价依然 上涨，预收支撑下，价格维稳。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报 价范围多在 1720-1760 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，2 月份初依 然有复产气头装置，目前暂无检修安排，上游装置提供尿素产量充裕，日产已 接近 21 万吨附近。农业经销商拿货积极，冬腊肥及小麦返青追肥拿货环比增 多，但目前临近春节，下游工厂放假增多，本期复合肥工厂开工负荷下调，环 比减少 1.62%，但同比依然偏高 19.34%。库存本期虽继续去化，但变动量极 低，随着上游产量的增加，上下游产销基本平衡，但农需逐渐启动，库存少许 去化。今日盘面下跌，回吐此前涨幅，宏观环境偏弱势，下周预计农需肥拿货 进入积极阶段，供需紧平衡状态下，尿素期货盘面大概率有较强的抗跌性，高 位整理为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1817 元/吨开盘, 日内高开低走，下跌 ...

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 20 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，日内下跌。工厂开始降价吸单，但低价成交依然有 限，现货氛围冷清。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1680-1720 元/吨，低端价格在河南地区。基本面来看，目前暂无装置有停车检 修计划，前期气头停产企业陆续开始复产，供给端虽长期压制价格，但总体稳 定，无过大变量，目前多个数据口径统计日产均 20 万吨附近。下游冬储已过大 半，农需工需环比均好转，复合肥工厂开工及成品库存同步增加，虽目前位于 下游年前备货补货期，但下游实际拿货量少，目前库存下沉过程中，预计年前 开工负荷继续增长有限，大多工厂以销定产为主。本期库存继续去化，一方面 期货行情氛围高涨，下游积极拿货备肥，另一方面，环保预警解除后，下游开 工负荷稳步抬升，库存目前已去化至一百万吨以下，预计随着年前备货的跟 进，尿素将继续去化。今年年前气温已逐渐开始回暖，又临近年前补货，预计 后续拿货有回温，尿素盘面跌势放缓，震荡整理后依然有偏强预期。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1772 元/吨开盘, 低开低走，日内下跌。最 终收于 1775 元/吨，收 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡，最终报收 1783（+4/+0.22%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价企稳，收单乏力，河南出厂报 1680-1710 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1680-1710 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1700-1720 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1630-1650 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1550-1620 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】1 月 12 日，尿素行业日产 20.20 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.18 万吨；较去 年同期增加 2.00 万吨；今日开工率 85.81%，较去年同期 81.26%回升 4.55%。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价整体平稳，市场情绪低迷，成交乏力，厂家收单零星，个低价区成 交尚可。山东地区主流出厂报价上涨，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率提升，原 料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商恐 高开始出货，新单成交乏力，省内尿素厂收单一般，但待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为 主；河南地区市场情 ...

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开低走，午后翻红。前期收单较多，虽今日跟进放缓，但上游 工厂依然挺价。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1680-1720 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，新疆供应充足，积极寻 找疆外渠道。整体日产环比增加，停产企业陆续复产，供应充裕下价格延续承 压。市场成交活跃度下降，农业需求处于淡季，下一季的集中农需大约为农历 年前后的小麦返青追肥。工业需求端大多受到环保预警的限制，开工多有下 滑，复合肥工厂主产区开工负荷承压，目前整体开工位于历年同期低位，但临 近年底假期，开工负荷难有大幅回升，采购趋于谨慎，三聚氰胺工厂后续复产 有所增加，但支撑不足。本期厂内库存转为小幅累库，虽市场行情火爆，但下 游需求有限，库存并未流畅去化。今日尿素情绪回落，但宏观情绪整体偏强， 尿素午后翻红，目前供需依然宽松，前期上涨速度快，短期震荡整理为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1790 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，午后翻红。最 终收于 1790 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅 0.45%，持仓量 232995 手（+2435 手） ...

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not mention an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of urea are relatively strong, and there is support for the decline in the futures price. Although the urea futures price dropped on Monday, it is difficult for it to fall significantly under the support of gas restrictions, exports, and winter storage. During the roll - over period, caution is advised for both long and short positions [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market Dynamics - Urea spot prices rose steadily during the week. Although high - price order transactions were limited, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and a strong willingness to hold prices. Since the weekend, prices have remained stable, and new order transactions are limited [3]. 2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price showed different trends each day. As of December 8, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,646 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 1. The weekly trading volume was 1,163.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.86 million tons; the open interest was 712.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13 million tons. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 17 yuan/ton. On December 8, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,526, a week - on - week increase of 3,589 [5][8]. 3. Urea Supply - side - Last week, urea weekly output decreased. From November 27 to December 3, the weekly output was 1.3851 billion tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%. Coal - based weekly output decreased slightly, and gas - based weekly output decreased by 9.26%. In the next cycle, the output is still expected to decrease mainly. On December 8, the national daily output of urea was 202,800 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57%. The price of动力煤 (steam coal) decreased, and the price of liquefied natural gas, synthetic ammonia, and methanol also declined [12][13][15]. 4. Urea Demand - side - As of December 5, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer increased. The compound fertilizer factory's new orders were few, and it mainly executed previous orders. The operating load continued to increase, and the finished - product inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate was close to the historical high level, and the room for further increase in operation was limited. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine increased, but there was a risk of weak growth in the future. Urea inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to rise [17][19]. 5. International Market - International urea prices declined across the board this week. After the end of the Indian tender, the international urea market was mainly stable. The next round of tender is expected to start in January next year, and the next procurement cycle in the US is expected to be from January to February 2026. As of December 5, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in various regions decreased week - on - week [21][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures opened high and closed low with an intraday decline, while spot prices continued to rise, with large - sized urea showing stronger growth than medium and small - sized ones. High daily production suppresses the rebound space of the futures market, but downstream demand has become more active after the price rebound, and the supply - demand situation has relatively improved. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving situation of enterprises after the futures correction. If downstream demand is not sustainable, the futures market will lack upward momentum [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea futures opened at 1666 yuan/ton and closed at 1654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton. The upstream production capacity is gradually recovering, and the current daily production is around 200,000 tons. The downstream compound fertilizer plant's operating rate increased by 4.29% month - on - month and 2.59% year - on - year, and the melamine operating rate also increased. The inventory has been continuously decreasing [1][2][5] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea contract 2601 opened high and closed low, with a closing price of 1654 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.42%, and a position of 243,246 lots (- 2177 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 519 lots and short positions increased by 2109 lots. Spot: The spot price continued to rise, with large - sized urea having a stronger increase. The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton [2][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot price rose while the futures closing price fell. Taking Henan as the benchmark, the basis of the January contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+ 31 yuan/ton) compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On November 21, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,100 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.34% [8][11]

Report Overview - Report Title: "消息证伪，回归基本面" - Release Date: November 13, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Jing from Guantong Futures Research and Consulting Department - Author's Qualification Certificate Number: F0235424/Z0000771 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market was generally warm today. After the export news was falsified, the market returned to the fundamental logic. The upstream factory resumption and new production increased the daily output, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price. The downstream inventory was being depleted, and the market was affected by factors such as environmental inspections and raw material price fluctuations [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The overall commodity futures market was warm. Urea opened flat and moved lower, with a slight increase during the day. The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. - The upstream factory resumption and new production pushed the daily output to 200,000 tons, nearly 9% higher than the same period last year, and high daily output was expected to continue this month. The coal price rebounded rapidly in the heating season, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price due to the cold winter expectation [1]. - The autumn fertilizer in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions was basically finished, and the compound fertilizer factory's start - up load decreased. After the end of environmental inspections, the start - up rate would rise again. The autumn fertilizer inventory was being depleted, and the winter storage policy was cautious due to raw material price fluctuations. Since the fourth batch of export quotas was announced last Friday, downstream purchases increased, and the inventory was being depleted [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,652 yuan/ton, opened flat and moved lower, and rose in the afternoon, closing at 1,658 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The trading volume was 250,538 lots, a decrease of 5,582 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long position decreased by 2,296 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,046 lots. Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of +397 lots, Everbright Futures had a net long position of +599 lots, Guotai Junan had a net short position of +761 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of +926 lots [2]. Spot - The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. Warehouse Receipts - On November 13, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,958, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, and the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [8]. Supply - On November 13, 2025, the national urea daily output was 207,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 85.51% [11]. Enterprise Inventory - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease. The pre - sale order days were 7.1 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period, a 5.76% increase [12]. Downstream Data - From November 7 to November 13, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from last week [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The urea market showed a pattern of opening low and then rising in the afternoon. Although downstream acceptance of high prices is still average, there is increased purchasing in the Northeast, and prices in North China have mostly risen. With upstream factory复产 and new production increasing daily output to 200,000 tons and expected to maintain high production this month, the abundant supply makes it difficult for prices to rise significantly. The rising coal prices in the heating season are expected to support the urea price from the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for reserve - type domestic use, and raw material fertilizer preparation will gradually start as factories resume work. Since the fourth batch of export quotas was announced last Friday, downstream purchasing has increased, and inventory has been declining. The afternoon market rally was mainly due to export news and improved demand, but supply and high inventory still create significant upward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1643 yuan/ton, opened low and then rose in the afternoon, closing at 1655 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The trading volume was 256,120 lots, an increase of 2,098 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 2,247 lots and short positions increased by 2,515 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: Downstream acceptance of high prices is still average, but there is increased purchasing in the Northeast, and prices in North China have mostly risen. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, with limited transactions at the high end [1][3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 12, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,958, an increase of 146 from the previous trading day, with all the increase from Ningling Stanley [5]. 3.2. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation declined, while the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: On November 12, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,500 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.51% [10]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease [11]. - **Pre - sale Orders**: As of November 12, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.1 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period, a 5.76% increase [11].