Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures opened high and closed low with an intraday decline, while spot prices continued to rise, with large - sized urea showing stronger growth than medium and small - sized ones. High daily production suppresses the rebound space of the futures market, but downstream demand has become more active after the price rebound, and the supply - demand situation has relatively improved. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving situation of enterprises after the futures correction. If downstream demand is not sustainable, the futures market will lack upward momentum [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea futures opened at 1666 yuan/ton and closed at 1654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton. The upstream production capacity is gradually recovering, and the current daily production is around 200,000 tons. The downstream compound fertilizer plant's operating rate increased by 4.29% month - on - month and 2.59% year - on - year, and the melamine operating rate also increased. The inventory has been continuously decreasing [1][2][5] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea contract 2601 opened high and closed low, with a closing price of 1654 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.42%, and a position of 243,246 lots (- 2177 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 519 lots and short positions increased by 2109 lots. Spot: The spot price continued to rise, with large - sized urea having a stronger increase. The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton [2][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot price rose while the futures closing price fell. Taking Henan as the benchmark, the basis of the January contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+ 31 yuan/ton) compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On November 21, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,100 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.34% [8][11]

Report Overview - Report Title: "消息证伪，回归基本面" - Release Date: November 13, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Jing from Guantong Futures Research and Consulting Department - Author's Qualification Certificate Number: F0235424/Z0000771 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market was generally warm today. After the export news was falsified, the market returned to the fundamental logic. The upstream factory resumption and new production increased the daily output, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price. The downstream inventory was being depleted, and the market was affected by factors such as environmental inspections and raw material price fluctuations [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The overall commodity futures market was warm. Urea opened flat and moved lower, with a slight increase during the day. The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. - The upstream factory resumption and new production pushed the daily output to 200,000 tons, nearly 9% higher than the same period last year, and high daily output was expected to continue this month. The coal price rebounded rapidly in the heating season, and the cost line was expected to support the urea price due to the cold winter expectation [1]. - The autumn fertilizer in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions was basically finished, and the compound fertilizer factory's start - up load decreased. After the end of environmental inspections, the start - up rate would rise again. The autumn fertilizer inventory was being depleted, and the winter storage policy was cautious due to raw material price fluctuations. Since the fourth batch of export quotas was announced last Friday, downstream purchases increased, and the inventory was being depleted [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,652 yuan/ton, opened flat and moved lower, and rose in the afternoon, closing at 1,658 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The trading volume was 250,538 lots, a decrease of 5,582 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long position decreased by 2,296 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,046 lots. Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of +397 lots, Everbright Futures had a net long position of +599 lots, Guotai Junan had a net short position of +761 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of +926 lots [2]. Spot - The market trading atmosphere was light, the large - particle price was relatively firm, and the spot was generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,550 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with limited high - end transactions [1][5]. Warehouse Receipts - On November 13, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,958, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable today, and the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [8]. Supply - On November 13, 2025, the national urea daily output was 207,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 85.51% [11]. Enterprise Inventory - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease. The pre - sale order days were 7.1 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period, a 5.76% increase [12]. Downstream Data - From November 7 to November 13, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from last week [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The urea market showed a pattern of opening low and then rising in the afternoon. Although downstream acceptance of high prices is still average, there is increased purchasing in the Northeast, and prices in North China have mostly risen. With upstream factory复产 and new production increasing daily output to 200,000 tons and expected to maintain high production this month, the abundant supply makes it difficult for prices to rise significantly. The rising coal prices in the heating season are expected to support the urea price from the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for reserve - type domestic use, and raw material fertilizer preparation will gradually start as factories resume work. Since the fourth batch of export quotas was announced last Friday, downstream purchasing has increased, and inventory has been declining. The afternoon market rally was mainly due to export news and improved demand, but supply and high inventory still create significant upward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1643 yuan/ton, opened low and then rose in the afternoon, closing at 1655 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The trading volume was 256,120 lots, an increase of 2,098 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 2,247 lots and short positions increased by 2,515 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: Downstream acceptance of high prices is still average, but there is increased purchasing in the Northeast, and prices in North China have mostly risen. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, with limited transactions at the high end [1][3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 12, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,958, an increase of 146 from the previous trading day, with all the increase from Ningling Stanley [5]. 3.2. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation declined, while the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: On November 12, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,500 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.51% [10]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease [11]. - **Pre - sale Orders**: As of November 12, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.1 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period, a 5.76% increase [11].

Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical research report focusing on urea, dated November 7, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the domestic urea market may experience a rebound due to the news of the fourth batch of export quotas, but in the medium - to - long - term, the urea fundamentals remain loose and the market is expected to run weakly [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures rose, closing at 1667 (+27/+1.65%) [3] - **Spot Market**: Factory prices increased with fair trading volume. The factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1530 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1550 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1530 - 1540 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1410 - 1490 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 7, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.79 tons, an increase of 0.20 tons from the previous working day and 1.44 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.61%, a 3.44% increase from 81.17% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: Maintenance devices are gradually resuming operation, and the average daily production has increased to around 19.6 tons. Urea production enterprise inventories have slightly increased by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, remaining at a high level [5] - **Demand Side**: The market rumor of the fourth batch of export quotas (about 600,000 tons) has increased the influence of the international market on the domestic one. However, the compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is winding up, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. The overall domestic demand is showing a downward trend [5] - **Price Trend**: The domestic spot price is oscillating between 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the news of export quotas will boost market sentiment, but in the medium - to - long - term, the market will still be weak due to the approaching end of autumn fertilizers and the upcoming "vacuum period" of domestic demand [5] Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Short - term rebound [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. Core Views - Supply: As of October 22, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data was 185,000 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuated around 180,000 - 190,000 tons. Based on the current daily output, the production in October is expected to be 5.85 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years. With the increasing losses of gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has started to shut down. Near the winter gas - limiting season, the daily production of gas - fired plants is expected to decline next month. Fixed - bed and natural gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After reaching the bottom recently, the urea price has stabilized and rebounded, and the profit has also stabilized. There is cost support below the urea futures price [5][35]. - Demand: Since this month, affected by the National Day holiday, the factory operating load decreased significantly at the beginning of the month and then gradually increased. In the first half of the month, the changeable weather postponed the corn harvest and wheat sowing, and the terminal sales were weak. As time passed, after the agricultural demand started, the factory's finished - product inventory gradually decreased but was still slightly higher than the same period last year. Currently, the compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China are expected to gradually start production by late November. As the autumn fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start. The operating rate of melamine has also shown a seasonal decline, providing little support for urea. The real - estate data remains sluggish. It is expected that the operating load will rebound next month, but the overall increase is expected to be weaker than in previous years [5]. - Inventory: This month, the urea inventory has increased significantly. On the one hand, during the National Day holiday, the production remained high while the downstream procurement decreased, greatly increasing the in - factory inventory. On the other hand, the agricultural demand was postponed this month, leading to an increase in the in - factory inventory. However, as the agricultural demand progresses, the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, but it is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle. It is expected that the inventory will increase moderately. Overall, due to the losses of upstream urea plants and the approaching gas - limiting season, the production will fluctuate slightly downward and is expected to remain at around 180,000 tons. The in - factory inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, and the supply is relatively loose. The domestic demand is difficult to absorb the high - level inventory. As the agricultural demand gradually ends, the subsequent downstream reserves and compound fertilizer production will be the main demand sources. The winter storage rhythm and changes in export policies will also affect the price trend. Currently, the market is oscillating at a low level [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The spot market was weak during the National Day holiday. After the futures market opened, the price dropped significantly and continued to decline. The futures price once reached a low of 1,578 yuan/ton and then started to consolidate at a low level. It rebounded in the second half of the month, but there was obvious upward pressure. It is expected to consolidate in the future. Attention should be paid to the impact of domestic macro - factors and possible changes in export policies [9]. Warehouse Receipts and Delivery - The validity period of urea warehouse and factory warehouse receipts is up to 4 months. Specifically, factory and warehouse standard warehouse receipts registered before the 15th trading day (inclusive) of February, June, and October each year should be fully cancelled before the 15th trading day (inclusive) of the same month. As of October 23, there were 5,484 registered urea warehouse receipts. Although approaching the cancellation date, the number is still at an absolute high level compared to the same period in history. Since 2025, the number of registered urea warehouse receipts has remained relatively high in recent years, reflecting the high - supply situation of urea to some extent [12]. Spot Price - Since October, the agricultural demand has been postponed due to frequent rainfall, resulting in weak terminal demand for urea and a continuous decline in price. Subsequently, supported by the cost side and with the start of agricultural demand and the end of the autumn fertilizer season, the price stopped falling and rebounded slightly. However, due to high supply and high inventory, the rebound space is limited. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of downstream fertilizer preparation and winter storage. The ex - factory prices in major regions fluctuate in the range of 1,500 - 1,600 yuan/ton. Looking forward to November, the end of the autumn fertilizer season, the spring production of compound fertilizers, off - season storage, and the rhythm of gas - fired plant restrictions will all affect the price movement. It is expected that the price will fluctuate narrowly after a rebound [19]. Basis - The urea basis has been in a state of contango. The pattern of loose supply and demand has suppressed the spot price. After the domestic demand is weak and the export demand is gradually digested, the decline in the spot price is greater than that of the futures price, resulting in the futures price being at a premium. Near the off - season storage period, if the basis is appropriate, hedging can be carried out on the futures market [23]. Spread - As of October 24, the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan/ton, weaker than - 2 yuan/ton at the end of last month. Recently, the urea futures contracts have gradually rebounded, but the upward and downward space for the 01 contract is limited, and the 05 contract is still far away. The spread is expected to fluctuate at a low level [27]. Supply - In September 2025, the urea production was 5.73867 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 101,800 tons (1.8%). As of October 22, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data was 185,000 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuated around 180,000 - 190,000 tons. Based on the current daily output, the production in October is expected to be 5.85 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years. With the increasing losses of gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has started to shut down. Near the winter gas - limiting season, the daily production of gas - fired plants is expected to decline next month [35]. - In November, Jiangsu Linggu and Hainan Fudao are scheduled for maintenance, each affecting a production of 2,500 tons. From 2026 to 2026, multiple enterprises are planning to put new production capacity into operation, with a total planned new capacity of 5.64 million tons/year [38]. Cost and Profit - As of October 24, the price of small - sized Jincheng anthracite was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The price of 5,500 - calorie thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan/ton from the previous month. In October, the significant temperature difference between the north and south in China increased the demand for coal. As the temperature gradually dropped, the demand for coal for winter heating increased. The environmental protection restrictions on mines continued, and major conferences boosted macro - expectations, leading to a continuous increase in the thermal coal price and stronger urea production costs. At the same time, the price of liquefied natural gas increased during the month, intensifying the losses of gas - fired plants. As of October 24, the cost of fixed - bed production was 1,917 yuan/ton, the cost of water - coal slurry production was 1,502 yuan/ton, and the cost of natural gas production was 1,971 yuan/ton. According to Longzhong's data, the theoretical profit of the coal - fired fixed - bed process was - 347 yuan/ton, the theoretical profit of the new coal - water slurry process was 58 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the gas - fired process was - 291 yuan/ton. Fixed - bed and natural gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After reaching the bottom recently, the urea price has stabilized and rebounded, and the profit has also stabilized. There is cost support below the urea futures price [42]. Inventory and Pending Orders - As of October 24, 2025, the in - factory urea inventory was 1.6302 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 457,600 tons. This month, the urea inventory increased significantly. On the one hand, during the National Day holiday, the production remained high while the downstream procurement decreased, greatly increasing the in - factory inventory. On the other hand, the agricultural demand was postponed this month, leading to an increase in the in - factory inventory. However, as the agricultural demand progresses, the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, but it is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle. It is expected that the inventory will increase moderately. The number of days of pending orders from enterprises first decreased and then increased during the month. As the autumn fertilizer season continued to progress, the pressure on enterprises for pending orders decreased [46]. Downstream Agricultural Demand - The agricultural demand for urea in the second half of the year and the fourth quarter is generally weaker than that in the first half of the year. Since the fourth quarter of this year, the weather has affected the corn harvest and wheat sowing, causing the agricultural demand to be scattered. As the autumn fertilizer season ends, the agricultural demand will become sporadic [49]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - Since this month, affected by the National Day holiday, the operating load of factories decreased significantly at the beginning of the month and then gradually increased. In the first half of the month, the changeable weather postponed the corn harvest and wheat sowing, and the terminal sales were weak. As time passed, after the agricultural demand started, the factory's finished - product inventory gradually decreased but was still slightly higher than the same period last year. Currently, the compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China are expected to gradually start production by late November. As the autumn fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start [57]. Compound Fertilizer Price - It is expected that the prices of raw materials such as sulfur, monoammonium phosphate, and ammonium chloride will rise, while the prices of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate will remain stable. The urea price has stopped falling and stabilized. The subsequent fertilizer - preparation period is expected to be based on the price fluctuations of raw materials for procurement. Currently, the production profit is lower than that of last year. Factories are mainly finishing the production of autumn fertilizers and will purchase and reserve at low prices in the future [62][63]. Other Industrial Demands - As of October 24, 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of melamine dropped to 48.3%. The rainfall in various parts of the country this month affected the progress of terminal industries. The operating rate of melamine has also shown a seasonal decline, providing little support for urea. The real - estate data remains sluggish. It is expected that the operating load will rebound next month, but the overall increase is expected to be weaker than in previous years [67]. International Urea Market - The international urea price first decreased and then increased this month. The continuous Indian tenders provided support for the market. European countries entered the market to purchase, and the sales situation of urea in North Africa improved, with prices rising in some regions. China has exported a large amount this month, and China's export situation will still affect the international urea price [72]. Indian Tenders - On October 17, it was learned that the price of the urea tender issued by RCF on October 15 had been announced, with the lowest bid price on the east coast being $395/ton CFR. So far, there has been no change in China's urea export quota. It is estimated that China's participation in this tender will be limited, and this Indian tender price is lower than market expectations, having limited impact on the domestic urea market and causing no obvious price fluctuations [76]. Export Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the urea port inventory was 210,000 tons. Since September, the port inventory has been continuously decreasing. As the export window period ended, the port inventory has gradually been digested and is now at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There is currently no official news about changes in urea export policies. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently characterized by relatively high factory inventories, ample supply, and weak domestic demand that struggles to absorb high - level inventories. With agricultural demand winding down, the market will focus on subsequent fertilizer stockpiling. In the short term, it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed flat today. The spot market prices have been rising since the weekend, with agricultural dealers actively stockpiling fertilizers but becoming more cautious after price increases. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with price increases mostly between 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in Henan [1][4]. - The monthly average daily production calculated by Longzhong data is 18.50 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuates around 18 - 19 tons. Due to increased losses in gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has shut down. With winter gas and production restrictions approaching, gas - fired daily production is expected to decline next month. Fixed - bed and natural - gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After hitting the bottom recently, urea prices have rebounded, and profits have stabilized, providing cost support for the futures [1]. - As time progresses, factory inventories are gradually being depleted after agricultural demand, but they are still slightly higher than the same period last year. Northeast compound fertilizer plants are expected to gradually start production in late November. As autumn fertilizer production nears completion, subsequent production is expected to gradually increase, and spring compound fertilizer production will gradually begin. Although the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, the inventory is still in an accumulation cycle, and it is expected to increase moderately. Overall, factory inventories are still higher year - on - year, supply is relatively abundant, and domestic demand is insufficient to absorb high - level inventories. Agricultural demand is gradually ending, and the focus of domestic demand is on subsequent fertilizer stockpiling. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate at a low level [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1647 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, and finally closed flat at 1640 yuan/ton, forming a negative candlestick, with a change of + 0.00%. The trading volume was 281,954 lots, a decrease of 4384 lots [2]. - On October 27, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5288, a decrease of 119 compared to the previous trading day. Among them, Jilin Yuyuan decreased by 100, and Hengshui Cotton and Linen decreased by 18 [2]. - Spot: Since the weekend, spot market quotes have been rising continuously. Agricultural dealers are actively stockpiling fertilizers but are more cautious after price increases. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with price increases mostly between 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in Henan [1][4]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes increased, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on Henan, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply data: According to Feiyitong data, on October 27, 2025, the national daily production of urea was 19.04 tons, a decrease of 0.58 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8].

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report on August 19, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall supply of urea in China is loose, with the daily average output still at a high level. Although some devices are under maintenance, the daily output is around 190,000 tons, the highest in the same period. The demand side shows a downward trend, with low enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China, and few grass - roots orders. However, the new Indian tender of 2 million tons has a certain boosting effect on the domestic market sentiment. In the short term, the domestic demand is limited, but the futures market has risen due to news stimulation. It is expected that the domestic urea price will remain firm [5]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures increased in volume and price in the afternoon, closing at 1817 (+62/+3.53%) [3] - Spot Market: The ex - factory price was weakly stable, and the transaction was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1660 - 1680 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1630 - 1640 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540 - 1620 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On August 19, the daily output of the urea industry was 198,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with the previous working day and an increase of 30,100 tons compared with the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 85.70%, a 9.39% increase compared with 76.31% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment was average, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas were stable, but the transaction weakened. In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory quotes rebounded slightly, the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate increased slightly, but the raw material inventory was sufficient, the finished product inventory was high, and the new order transaction was weak. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, the ex - factory quotes were stable, and the new order transaction was weak. In the areas around the delivery area, the ex - factory price was weakly stable, and the market atmosphere cooled down [5] - Supply: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily output decreased to around 190,000 tons, still at the highest level in the same period [5] - Demand: A new round of Indian tender was announced, with India tendering 2 million tons again, closing on September 2 and with a shipping date at the end of October. The domestic and foreign price difference was large, which had a certain boosting effect on the domestic market sentiment. The enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was not high, the grass - roots had no intention to stock up, and the compound fertilizer factories' operating rate increased slightly, but the demand for raw materials was low. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 68,900 tons to around 957,400 tons, at a high level [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Go long on dips [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on pullbacks [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures price was strong first and then weak. The spot price dropped to near the mid - June level, and the downstream acceptance may gradually increase. The prices of other raw materials for compound fertilizers, sulfur and potassium chloride, continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the release of July urea export data and the impact of Indian tenders on the futures market. The support level is 1700 - 1720, and the pressure level is 1820 - 1850 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - **Price**: The urea futures price fluctuated between 1724 yuan/ton (low) and 1772 yuan/ton (high). On August 15, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1737 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from the previous week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1715 yuan/ton, a 3.16% decrease from the previous week [2][4]. - **Base Difference**: On August 15, the main base difference in the Henan market was - 22 yuan/ton. The main base difference of urea weakened, with the main contract switching from 09 to 01. The spot price of urea dropped significantly, supported by the futures market's expectations [8]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea ran within a range, with the 01 contract at a premium. On August 15, the 9 - 1 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of - 29 to - 11 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 84.45%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.47%, basically unchanged from the previous week. The daily urea output was 19.27 tons, and the daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons [2][11]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite continued to adjust strongly. As of August 14, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces in Jincheng, Shanxi (S0.4 - 0.5) was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The gross profit margins of coal - based and gas - based urea both decreased slightly [14]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand was scattered. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 43.48%, a 1.98 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, reaching a medium - to - high level. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 82.65 tons, an increase of 2.61 tons from the previous week. The demand support from other industrial sectors such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin weakened [2][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous week, showing inventory accumulation for three consecutive weeks. Urea port inventory was 742,000 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous week, with partial digestion of port inventory. There were 3,573 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 71,460 tons [2][27]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer plants, the reduction and maintenance of urea plants, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Energy Chemical Research Report - Urea Daily Report [2] - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1726 (+0/+0%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were stable. Henan's factory price was reported at 1660 - 1680 yuan/ton, Shandong's small - particle factory price at 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton, Hebei's small - particle factory price at 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi's medium and small - particle factory price at 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Anhui's small - particle factory price at 1690 - 1710 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia's factory price at 1570 - 1630 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On August 13, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.12 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.23 tons from the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 82.59%, a 5.99% increase from 76.60% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: Generally average. Mainstream regional urea spot factory quotes stopped falling and stabilized, with weaker transactions. Shandong's mainstream factory quotes rebounded, but market sentiment was average. Industrial compound fertilizer operating rates increased slightly, with sufficient raw material inventories, high finished - product inventories, few grass - roots orders, and mainly rigid - demand replenishment. Henan's market sentiment was low, with stable factory quotes, and traders were waiting and watching. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, factory prices were weakly stable, and the market atmosphere cooled [5] - Supply: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily average production dropped to around 19 tons, still at the highest level in the same period. Urea production enterprise inventories increased by 5.38 tons to around 91.73 tons, at a high level overall [5] - Demand: A new round of Indian tenders was announced, with the final price rising by more than $30/ton compared to the previous period. There was a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets, which boosted the domestic market sentiment to some extent. However, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was not high, and grass - roots had no intention to stock up. Although the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants increased slightly, the available days of urea inventory were more than half a month, and the procurement sentiment for raw materials was low [5] - Market Outlook: In the short term, domestic demand was still limited. Agricultural demand had ended, and compound fertilizers had not started production on a large scale. The spot market sentiment was generally stable. After some regions lowered factory prices, manufacturers still had difficulty in receiving orders. The Indian tender confirmed 2.1 million tons of supply, in line with market expectations, and the spot market sentiment weakened again [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on pullbacks [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The international spot prices of urea have different trends in various regions, with some falling and some rising. The domestic urea market is influenced by both demand and sentiment, with inventory showing a complex pattern of change. The futures market is in a multi - empty game situation, and the overall market is affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, export information, and agricultural demand trends [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Valuation: Price and Spread - Multiple graphs show the trends of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Bo Da, Jin Kai, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices over the years [5][9][15] Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new capacity was 4270000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3460000 tons, with some projects already put into production [24] - **Production Maintenance Plan**: Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans in 2025, including Jiangsu Huachang, Shanxi Tianze, etc., with reasons mainly being routine or policy - related maintenance [28] - **Output**: The production profit is around the break - even line, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate also shows certain trends over the years [30][31] - **Cost**: The raw material prices are weak, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has shifted downwards [32] - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state [33] - **Net Imports (Exports)**: Due to the adjustment of export policies, the subsequent export volume may increase [40] Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand is seasonally strong, and the construction of high - standard farmland has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn [44][47] - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The fundamentals of compound fertilizer show trends in production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate [51][52][53] - **Melamine**: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine have their own trends [55][56] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand from real estate for wood - based panels has limited support, while the export of wood products has resilience [58][59] Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: On June 18, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.136 million tons, a decrease of 41100 tons from the previous week, a 3.49% decrease. Some provincial enterprises' inventories increased, and some decreased [63] - **Port Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025 (week 25), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 295000 tons, a 50000 - ton increase from the previous week, a 20.41% increase [63] International Urea - Multiple graphs show the trends of international urea prices, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and CFR prices in Brazil over the years [67][68][69][70]