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尿素日报:高位震荡-20260324
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 12:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened lower and closed lower today, and the market mainly made purchases as needed. The overall supply is abundant, the downstream agricultural demand is weakening but there is still some end - of - season procurement. The price is supported by cost and terminal shipping, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline next week. During the conflict, it is expected to mainly oscillate at a high level [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The futures market opened low and closed lower today. After yesterday's futures rally, the market transaction price rebounded slightly, but the futures oscillated repeatedly. The factory ex - factory quotes in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are in the range of 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton. The daily output is around 21 - 220,000 tons, and the state - reserve supply has entered the market. The downstream agricultural demand is weakening but still has some end - of - season procurement. The compound fertilizer factory is maintaining a high - start - up inventory - reduction trend and is expected to continue to increase capacity utilization next week. The price is supported by cost and terminal shipping, and the inventory has continued to decline this period. Affected by Trump's threat remarks, urea followed the energy - chemical sector up yesterday and adjusted today. Under the main logic of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the domestic market, the increase is limited and it is expected to oscillate at a high level during the conflict [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1866 yuan/ton, closed lower, and finally closed at 1864 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.06%. The trading volume was 204,042 lots (-16,190 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions decreased by 4,953 lots and the short positions decreased by 8,763 lots. Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of - 742 lots, Wukuang Futures had a net long position of + 443 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net short position of - 1,415 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of - 1,525 lots [2] Spot - After yesterday's futures rally, the market transaction price rebounded slightly, but the futures oscillated repeatedly, and the market mainly made purchases as needed. The factory ex - factory quotes in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are in the range of 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton [1][4] 3. Warehouse Receipts - On March 24, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,712, the same as the previous trading day [3] 4. Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [8] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 24, 2026, the national daily urea output was 215,800 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 86.03% [9]
尿素日报:供需双强-20260306
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-03-06 11:19
【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报:供需双强 发布日期:2026 年 3 月 6 日 【行情分析】 尿素今日低开高走,震荡偏强。工厂报价偏稳定,少数工厂成交价格下 降。河北、山东及河南尿素工厂出厂报价范围在 1800-1840 元/吨。基本面来 看,市场流通货源充足,国储逐步投放,日产已至 22 万吨附近,短期暂无长期 停车检修计划。下游农业需求支撑盘面行情,华北地区雨雪天气后放晴,助力 返青追肥备肥拿货,工业需求边际走强,本期复合肥工厂开工负荷有回升,但 增速同比偏低,主要系河北地区环保检查受影响。库存转为去化,主要系农业 需求延续而工业需求复工提货增加,主交割地区山东及河南均呈现库存下降的 情况,本期整体去化 6.62%。供需均呈现出增长趋势,供应端随着国储放货现 货流通更为充裕,预计后期去库幅度或有收窄。上下游博弈中,目前旺季阶 段,盘面窄幅整理,震荡偏强。 【期现行情】 期货方面:尿素主力 2605 合约 1811 元/吨开盘, 低开高走,震荡偏强,最 终收于 1830 元/吨,收成一根阳线,涨跌幅+0.33%,持仓量 245811 手(-2699 手)。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看,多头+1384 ...
【冠通期货研究报告】尿素周报:印标发布,盘面拉涨-20260209
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 12:36
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. - The gas - fired plants have basically resumed production, and production is normal during the Chinese New Year. Agricultural demand for goods is good, and the peak season for wheat top - dressing after the Spring Festival is approaching. Industrial demand is gradually weakening. - The overall volatility of the macro - market and commodities increased last week, but urea remained relatively stable. After the Indian tender was issued on Saturday, the futures rose on Monday. The probability of spot price reduction before the festival is low, and the futures will fluctuate within a narrow range [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Spot Market Dynamics - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan's prices at the lower end [4]. 3.2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the futures showed a downward - opening and mostly weak - oscillating trend. As of February 9, the main May contract of urea was reported at 1788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the settlement price on January 19. The weekly trading volume was 12.8833 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.4244 million tons; the open interest was 7.5489 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5991 million tons. - After the Indian tender was released on Saturday, the domestic market sentiment improved, and the futures rose. Last week, the increase in urea futures was less than that of the spot, and the basis strengthened. As of February 9, the 05 - contract basis was 2 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 18 yuan/ton. - On February 9, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10860, a week - on - week decrease of 396 [6][9]. 3.3. Urea Supply - From January 29 to February 4, the weekly urea output was 1.4692 million tons, an increase of 14310 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.98%, and the average daily output was 209900 tons. The coal - based weekly output was 1.2428 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the gas - based weekly output was 226400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.71%. The small - particle weekly output was 117780 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%; the large - particle weekly output was 291400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. - It is expected that 4 - 5 enterprises will resume production in the next cycle. As of February 9, 2026, the national daily urea output was 210000 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.26%. - The prices of coking coal and anthracite coal are expected to remain stable, and the price of liquefied natural gas has increased. The price of synthetic ammonia has decreased, and the price of urea has increased. The methanol price has remained stable [12][14][15]. 3.4. Urea Demand - As of February 9, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was basically flat last week. Before the festival, they continued to stock up for production, and the inventory in the factory decreased slightly. The terminal sales were good. The last operating data before the holiday is expected to show a week - on - week decline. As of February 6, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 41.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. - From January 30 to February 6, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.95%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from the previous period and 7.73 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Before the holiday, downstream panel factories and melamine production entered the holiday mode and are currently at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [17]. 3.5. Inventory Data - As of February 6, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918500 tons, a decrease of 26400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, and 827400 tons lower than the same period last year. The downstream agricultural demand for goods is smooth, but the factory demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and the downstream inventory is still being smoothly reduced, which verifies the tight - balance supply - demand logic and supports the urea market. The port sample inventory was 165000 tons, an increase of 21000 tons from the previous week [20]. 3.6. International Market - India's RCF issued a new round of urea import tender, with a target purchase volume of 1.5 million tons. Under the influence of the new Indian tender, market confidence is boosted, and international urea prices are expected to continue to rise. - As of February 9, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China was 422.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - particle urea in China was 455 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.5 US dollars/ton. The prices in other regions also showed varying degrees of increase [22].
尿素日报:面对假期前吸单压力-20260205
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 11:04
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures opened lower and trended downwards on February 5, 2026, with the spot market making a tentative small increase but facing difficulties in price hikes due to holiday order - taking. If there is no positive news, the spot market may lower prices to attract orders. [1][2][3] - The daily output of urea is increasing, with the January 2026 output expected to be 6.28 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years. [1] - The downstream demand for urea is expected to peak during the farming season after the Spring Festival. Currently, the compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate has a small - scale increase, but it is limited before the holiday. [1] - The inventory is decreasing mainly due to agricultural pick - up, and it is expected to continue to decline before the Spring Festival and increase during the holiday. [1] - The overall demand for urea is weak, and the spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: The urea main contract 2605 opened at 1784 yuan/ton, closed at 1778 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.39%. The trading volume decreased by 5461 lots to 222,810 lots. Among the top twenty positions, long positions increased by 1430 lots, and short positions decreased by 5434 lots. [2] - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan factories at the lower end. [1][3] 3.2. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Based on the Henan region, the basis of the May contract is - 18 yuan/ton, 9 yuan/ton stronger than the previous trading day. [7] - **Supply**: On February 5, 2026, the national daily output of urea was 210,000 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 85.26%. [10] - **Inventory**: As of February 6, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons from the previous week, a 2.79% decrease. [12] - **Pre - sale Orders**: As of February 6, 2026, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.82 days, an increase of 2.23 days from the previous period, a 33.84% increase. [12] - **Downstream Data**: From January 30 to February 6, 2026, the compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate was 41.79%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points from the previous week. The average weekly production capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.95%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from the previous week. [14]
尿素日报:回吐涨幅-20260130
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 11:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Urea futures opened high and trended lower today, falling by over 1%. Although the spot price still rose today due to good order receipts in previous days, the futures market gave back previous gains. With the upstream production increasing and downstream factories on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. Next week, as agricultural demand for fertilizers enters an active stage, the urea futures market is likely to have strong resistance to decline and will mainly trade in a high - level consolidation range [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Urea futures opened high and trended lower today, falling by over 1%. The spot price still rose today, and the price remained stable supported by advance orders. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1720 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having lower prices. In February, there will still be gas - head plants resuming production, and there are no current maintenance plans. The upstream plants can provide sufficient urea production, with the daily output approaching 210,000 tons. Agricultural dealers are actively purchasing, and the purchase of winter and wax fertilizers and wheat green - turning top - dressing has increased month - on - month. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, more downstream factories are on holiday. The operating load of compound fertilizer factories has decreased by 1.62% month - on - month but is still 19.34% higher year - on - year. Although the inventory continued to decline this period, the change was extremely low. With the increase in upstream production, the production and sales of the upstream and downstream are basically balanced, and the inventory has slightly decreased as agricultural demand gradually starts. The futures market is expected to have strong resistance to decline and will mainly trade in a high - level consolidation range [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1817 yuan/ton, opened high and trended lower during the day, falling by over 1%, and finally closed at 1790 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.32%. The trading volume was 246,294 lots, a decrease of 14,612 lots. Among the top twenty positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 3,601 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8,962 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of - 1,692 lots, COFCO Futures had a net long position of - 1,975 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net short position of - 6,407 lots, and Yide Futures had a net short position of - 652 lots. On January 30, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 12,690, a decrease of 9 compared to the previous trading day, with Anhui Zhongneng (factory warehouse) decreasing by 9 [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The order receipts in previous days were good, and the spot price still rose today. Supported by advance orders, the price remained stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1720 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having lower prices [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - In terms of the basis, the mainstream spot market quotation rose today, while the futures closing price fell. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton. On January 30, 2026, the national daily urea output was 209,000 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 84.86% [7][10]
尿素日报:需求依然有释放预期-20260120
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-20 11:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a situation where demand still has the expectation of release. Although the spot market is cold, with the approach of pre - holiday restocking, the decline of the urea futures market will slow down, and there is still a bullish expectation after shock consolidation [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea opened lower and moved lower today, with limited low - price transactions in the spot market. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1680 - 1720 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][4] - There are no plans for plant shutdown and maintenance at present, and the gas - based production enterprises that were shut down earlier have gradually resumed production. The daily output is around 200,000 tons, and the supply is generally stable [1] - The winter storage is more than half over, and both agricultural and industrial demands have improved month - on - month. The start - up of compound fertilizer factories and finished product inventory have increased simultaneously, but the actual purchase volume of downstream is small. The inventory is currently being destocked, and it is expected that the pre - holiday start - up load will continue to have limited growth [1] - The inventory has been destocked to less than one million tons. With the progress of pre - holiday restocking, urea inventory will continue to be destocked [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1772 yuan/ton, closed at 1775 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.34%. The trading volume was 233,074 lots, a decrease of 2,813 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 1,490 lots, and short positions decreased by 3,446 lots [2] - Spot: Factories are reducing prices to attract orders, but low - price transactions are still limited, and the spot market is cold [1][4] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation remained stable today, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [8] - Supply: On January 20, 2026, the national daily urea output was 202,800 tons, the same as yesterday, and the start - up rate was 83.57% [11] - Warehouse receipts: On January 20, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 13,355, the same as the previous trading day [3]
银河期货尿素日报-20260112
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 11:27
Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Urea Daily Report, January 12, 2026 [2] - Report type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Research area: Commodity research - Energy and Chemicals [1][8][12] Group 2: Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1783 (+4/+0.22%) [3] - Spot market: Factory prices stabilized, but order intake was weak. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1680 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1680 - 1710 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized particles 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea industry daily output on January 12 was 20.20 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.00 tons from the same period last year; the current operating rate was 85.81%, a 4.55% increase from 81.26% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logical Analysis - The factory prices in mainstream regions remained generally stable, market sentiment was low, and trading was weak. In different regions, although the situation varied, the factory prices were expected to remain firm or follow the upward trend. The daily output had returned to around 200,000 tons due to the return of some gas - fired maintenance devices. The Indian tender result was CFR 420 US dollars/ton, with a counter - offer of around 840,000 tons. The domestic - foreign price difference was still large, but there were no new quotas, so the overall impact was limited. The compound fertilizer operating rate in the Central Plains and Northeast regions increased, and some enterprises that had stopped production due to environmental protection resumed work. The progress of the off - season reserve enterprises had reached over 70%, and the subsequent purchasing intensity would gradually slow down. As the factory price rose, downstream resistance increased, and the factory order intake weakened, so the factory price was expected to decline [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Single - side: Oscillation [6] - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [6] - Options: Wait - and - see [9] Group 6: Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of urea daily output, total output, operating rates (coal - based, gas - based, and overall), port inventory, enterprise inventory, enterprise pre - orders, compound fertilizer demand, compound fertilizer operating rate, compound fertilizer factory inventory, melamine operating rate, and Northeast arrival volume from 2023 to 2026 [10][13]
尿素日报:弹性不足-20260107
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 11:40
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened higher and trended lower today, turning positive in the afternoon. Upstream factories are still holding firm on prices despite slower order follow - up. The supply is abundant with increasing daily production and returning production from shut - down enterprises, putting pressure on prices. Market trading activity has declined, with agricultural demand in the off - season and industrial demand restricted by environmental warnings. The inventory has started to accumulate slightly, and the market will mainly experience short - term shock consolidation due to the current loose supply - demand situation and the previous rapid price increase [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1790 yuan/ton, opened higher and trended lower, turning positive in the afternoon, closing at 1790 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.45%. The trading volume was 232,995 lots (+2,435 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 3,300 lots and short positions increased by 4,650 lots [2]. - Spot: The upstream factories are still holding firm on prices. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1680 - 1720 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having lower prices [1][4]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotes rose today, and the futures closing price also rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the May contract basis at - 40 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) [8]. - Supply: On January 7, 2026, the national daily urea production was 202,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from yesterday, with an operating rate of 83.24% [11]. - Inventory: As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% [12]. - Pre - sale Orders: As of January 7, 2026, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.41 days, an increase of 0.41 days from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.83% [12].
尿素周报:基本面偏强,盘面下跌有支撑-20251208
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 12:08
Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not mention an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of urea are relatively strong, and there is support for the decline in the futures price. Although the urea futures price dropped on Monday, it is difficult for it to fall significantly under the support of gas restrictions, exports, and winter storage. During the roll - over period, caution is advised for both long and short positions [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market Dynamics - Urea spot prices rose steadily during the week. Although high - price order transactions were limited, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and a strong willingness to hold prices. Since the weekend, prices have remained stable, and new order transactions are limited [3]. 2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price showed different trends each day. As of December 8, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,646 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 1. The weekly trading volume was 1,163.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.86 million tons; the open interest was 712.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13 million tons. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 17 yuan/ton. On December 8, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,526, a week - on - week increase of 3,589 [5][8]. 3. Urea Supply - side - Last week, urea weekly output decreased. From November 27 to December 3, the weekly output was 1.3851 billion tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%. Coal - based weekly output decreased slightly, and gas - based weekly output decreased by 9.26%. In the next cycle, the output is still expected to decrease mainly. On December 8, the national daily output of urea was 202,800 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57%. The price of动力煤 (steam coal) decreased, and the price of liquefied natural gas, synthetic ammonia, and methanol also declined [12][13][15]. 4. Urea Demand - side - As of December 5, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer increased. The compound fertilizer factory's new orders were few, and it mainly executed previous orders. The operating load continued to increase, and the finished - product inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate was close to the historical high level, and the room for further increase in operation was limited. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine increased, but there was a risk of weak growth in the future. Urea inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to rise [17][19]. 5. International Market - International urea prices declined across the board this week. After the end of the Indian tender, the international urea market was mainly stable. The next round of tender is expected to start in January next year, and the next procurement cycle in the US is expected to be from January to February 2026. As of December 5, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in various regions decreased week - on - week [21][23].
尿素日报:期现分化-20251121
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 11:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures opened high and closed low with an intraday decline, while spot prices continued to rise, with large - sized urea showing stronger growth than medium and small - sized ones. High daily production suppresses the rebound space of the futures market, but downstream demand has become more active after the price rebound, and the supply - demand situation has relatively improved. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving situation of enterprises after the futures correction. If downstream demand is not sustainable, the futures market will lack upward momentum [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Urea futures opened at 1666 yuan/ton and closed at 1654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton. The upstream production capacity is gradually recovering, and the current daily production is around 200,000 tons. The downstream compound fertilizer plant's operating rate increased by 4.29% month - on - month and 2.59% year - on - year, and the melamine operating rate also increased. The inventory has been continuously decreasing [1][2][5] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea contract 2601 opened high and closed low, with a closing price of 1654 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.42%, and a position of 243,246 lots (- 2177 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 519 lots and short positions increased by 2109 lots. Spot: The spot price continued to rise, with large - sized urea having a stronger increase. The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1620 yuan/ton, with a general increase of about 10 yuan/ton [2][5] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot price rose while the futures closing price fell. Taking Henan as the benchmark, the basis of the January contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+ 31 yuan/ton) compared with the previous trading day. Supply: On November 21, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,100 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.34% [8][11]