智通财经APP获悉，阿斯麦(ASML.US)将于7月16日公布第二季度财务业绩。摩根大通发布研报表示， 巨大的订单数量预期使得走势难以确定;根据目前的股价情况，业绩符合预期将被视为积极因素。小摩 重申对阿斯麦"增持"评级，目标价970欧元(约合1137.71美元)。 小摩指出，市场对该公司股票的走势持看跌态度。鉴于订单存在不确定性，短期内可能需要保持谨慎态 度，但鉴于"26 年的共识预期营收较25 年的指引中值增长 7.7%"，小摩认为中期风险较低。投资者仍关 注"26 年的销售额"。投资者对阿斯麦在26 年的前景愈发看淡，原因有多个。 小摩预计该公司将报告营收 74.33 亿欧元(环比下降 4.0%，同比增长 19.1%)，这比市场预期低 1.0%，与 指引区间中间值 74.5 亿欧元相符。小摩预计该公司第二季度订单额为 41.9 亿欧元，这比市场预期低 12.6%，反映了鉴于季度订单的可预测性较低、对订单量的保守看法。然而，这比我们收集到的买方市 场预期的 45 亿欧元低 6.9%(见此处)。在盈利能力方面，小摩对 51.5%的毛利率(公司指引范围为 50- 53%)的估计与市场预期一致。小摩预计阿斯麦第 ...

7月10日，银行股带领上证指数再次突破3500点，其中工商银行（601398.SH）上涨2.93%，建设 银行（601939.SH）上升0.51%，盘中一度创出历史新高。 业内人士认为，经济复苏预期增强缓解了对银行资产质量担忧，在低利率环境下，银行息差下降幅度 并不多，而长期资金入市则推动了股价上涨，展望未来行情，预计其他高股息股票将会有一定的轮动 效应。 港股100研究中心顾问余丰慧向第一财经记者表示，当前银行股行情的上涨主要受到多重因素驱动， 即便在业绩负增长的大背景下，仍有其独特的基本面支撑。首先，随着经济复苏预期的增强，市场对 银行业资产质量的担忧有所缓解，不良贷款率有望得到控制甚至下降。其次，"国家队"流动性支持 以及中长期资金如保险资金的持续流入，为银行股提供了强有力的资金面支撑。此外，公募基金改革 带来的银行仓位配置增加，也推动了股价上行。 余丰慧认为，其他高股息股票方面的轮动机会存在一定的吸引力。在低利率环境下，投资者倾向于寻 找稳定的现金流来源，高股息股票因此成为理想选择。银行股因其相对较高的股息收益率，在这一趋 势中占据有利位置。不过，随着更多资金追逐这类资产，其他同样具有稳健分红记录且估 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

周四（7月10日）亚市早盘，现货黄金呈现震荡微涨态势，一度收复3320美元/盎司关口，目前交投于3318美元/盎司附近。周三金价在触及近两周低点 3282.61美元/盎司后强势反弹，最终收报3313.38美元/盎司，展现出显著的回升动能。当前市场环境下，美债收益率波动、贸易谈判不确定性及美联储货币 政策走向共同构成影响金价的核心因素。 一、金价探底回升的驱动因素 1.1 市场波动与避险需求升温 周三金价走势呈现"V型"反转：早盘跌至6月30日以来最低水平3282.61美元/盎司后，纽约时段震荡回升并收复3300美元关口。Blue Line Futures首席市场策略 师Phillip Streible指出，全球地缘政治风险、贸易政策不确定性及美国财政扩张引发的避险需求，成为支撑金价的核心力量。资金持续流入黄金这一传统避 险资产，为价格提供逢低买盘支撑。 1.2 美元与美债收益率的动态平衡 美元指数持续运行于两周高位附近，对黄金形成短期压制，但美国10年期国债收益率从逾两周高位回落至4.34%，部分抵消了美元走强的影响。美债收益率 下行反映市场对美国财政前景担忧有所缓解，而当日390亿美元10年期国债标售需求强 ...

特朗普在致信日韩领导人时称，两国与美国之间的贸易关系 " 极度不对等 " ，因此美国将从 8 月 1 日起分别对其商品征收 25% 的对等关税。他同时警告，若对方实施报复，将 " 加倍征税作为回应 " 。 这标志着从 2025 年初以来逐步酝酿的 " 关税贸易战 " 升级进入 2.0 阶段。市场对此反应激烈，各类资产剧烈波动。本文将聚 焦四大资产类别：美股、美债、美元和黄金为大家分析一下贸易战带来的后果和影响。 2025 年 7 月 7 日，美国总统特朗普再次掀起关税风暴。他向包括日本、韩国、马来西亚在内的 14 个国家发出正式信函，警告 除非在 8 月 1 日前与美国达成新的贸易协议，否则将对其出口商品 加征至少 25% 的高额关税。这一轮拟征关税的国家多数为 亚洲国家，还包括印尼、孟加拉、泰国等国。 当市场面临风险冲击中，美国国债价格往往上涨、收益率下行。然而 2025 年 4 月， 10 年期美债收益率 一反常态，从 3.96% 反弹至 4.6% ，创下三年新高。这背后主要有三个原因：第一、市场担心关税或将引发 " 成本推动型通胀 " 。第二、投资者对美 国财政赤字与债务扩张的容忍度下降。第三、杠杆资金 ...

张尧浠：基本面动荡不定、金价震荡调整仍有看涨预期 日内将可关注美国至7月5日当周初请失业金人数(万人)，市场预期偏向利好金价，故此今日操作思路亚盘寻高做空，欧盘筑底做多入场，等待美盘再度走 强。 基本面上，特朗普将关税协议延长至8月1日开始再度征收，虽然缓解了市场紧张情绪，但其言论的到期后将不再延长，并发出关税威胁，这增加了全球贸 易不确定性，推高避险情绪，也使得后市仍面临关税带来的经济和通胀担忧，将还会削弱美元，支撑金价。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3301.86美元/盎司，短暂走强6美金后，回撤走低，欧盘时段筑底震荡，并先行录得日内低点3282.56美元，之后美盘时段开 始回升反弹，持续走强，延续盘尾录得日内高点3316.65美元，并最终收于3313.44美元，日振幅34.09美元，收涨11.58美元，涨幅0.35%。 影响上，受到美元指数近期止跌回升，以及技术回落的卖盘压力，欧盟表示可能在未来几天在8月1日前与美国达成贸易协议，而先行走低，但美元指数遇 阻表现，基本面的不确定性，令市场感到担忧而限制了金价跌幅； 另外，在支撑买盘，以及特朗普再次呼吁美联储降息，并宣称关税大限推迟至8月1日，是"最终期限， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant internal disagreement among officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the future of interest rates, with most officials concerned about inflationary pressures from Trump's tariff policies [1][2]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Outlook - A minority of officials support an immediate rate cut, while the majority remain cautious, with some suggesting that no cuts are necessary this year [1][2]. - The updated dot plot indicates that out of 19 officials, 10 expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, while 7 predict no cuts until 2025, and 2 foresee one cut [1]. Inflation Concerns - Officials express significant uncertainty regarding the timing, scale, and duration of tariffs' impact on inflation, leading to varied opinions on inflation forecasts [1][2]. - Some officials believe that if the labor market weakens or if tariff-induced inflation is mild and temporary, a rate cut could be justified [2]. Economic Policy Uncertainty - The rapid changes in economic policy, including tariffs and other reforms, complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2]. - Most economists anticipate that tariffs will increase inflation and suppress economic growth, although current economic data has not yet shown widespread effects from tariffs [2]. Future Monitoring - Policymakers will closely monitor the June CPI inflation data set to be released on July 15, with some indicating a willingness to consider a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [3]. - Despite uncertainties, most officials agree that the overall U.S. economy remains stable, allowing for patience in adjusting monetary policy [4].

当地时间7月9日，美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会6月17日至18日的会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储 同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。与会者一致认为，尽管净出口波动影响了数 据，但近期指标表明经济活动继续稳步扩张。失业率保持在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健，通胀率仍 然略高。与会者一致认为，经济前景的不确定性有所减弱但仍然居高不下。(央视新闻) ...

金十数据7月10日讯，最新公布的美联储6月会议纪要显示，与会者判断劳动市场情况仍然稳固，处于或 接近最大就业的估计水平。几位与会者指出，近期劳动力市场的稳定反映了招聘和裁员的放缓，几位与 会者还提到，他们的联系人和商业调查受访者表示，由于不确定性上升，暂停了招聘决定。几位与会者 指出，移民政策正在减少劳动力供应。在对劳动力市场的展望中，多数与会者认为，关税上调或政策不 确定性加剧将打压劳动力需求，许多与会者预计情况将逐渐走软。一些与会者指出，一些指标已经显示 出疲软的迹象，他们将密切关注就业市场进一步走弱的迹象。一些与会者指出，工资增长继续放缓，预 计不会造成通胀压力。 美联储会议纪要：多数与会者认为关税上调或政策不确定性加剧将打压劳动需求 ...

智通财经7月10日电，最新公布的美联储6月会议纪要显示，与会者指出，风险和不确定性是影响其决策 的重要因素，并强调需要制定一项政策战略，旨在在一系列高度不确定的发展中实现委员会的最大就业 和价格稳定目标。与会者承认，经济的风险和不确定性普遍存在，并对货币政策的设计和沟通构成挑 战。他们指出，衡量和评估风险和不确定性是困难的，委员会依靠广泛的指标以及来自企业和社区联系 人的信息来衡量不断变化的风险，特别是在不确定性加剧的时期，这对委员会很有帮助。 美联储会议纪要：经济的风险和不确定性普遍存在是影响决策的重要因素 ...