Group 1 - The core point of the article is the release of January inflation data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicating a year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 2.4%, down from 2.7% in December and below the market expectation of 2.5% [1] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month, which is also below the expected 0.3% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.5% year-over-year, matching market expectations, and slightly down from the previous value of 2.6% [1] Group 2 - The month-over-month core CPI rose by 0.3%, in line with market expectations and slightly higher than the previous month's increase of 0.2% [1] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by housing and food prices, with the housing index rising by 0.2% and food prices also increasing by 0.2% [1] - Energy prices continued to decline, falling by 1.5% in January, which helped to offset the upward pressure from housing and food prices [1] Group 3 - In January, the actual average weekly earnings in the U.S. grew by 1.9% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth since March 2021, indicating a recovery in consumer purchasing power [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% last month, as current CPI and core CPI remain above the Fed's 2% inflation target [2] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%, leading the market to believe that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates stable in the short term while observing future economic data [2]

Economic Growth Outlook - France's GDP growth is projected to be 0.9% for the year 2025, slightly lower than 1.1% in 2024, with a potential recovery to 1.0% by mid-2026 [1] - In Q3, France's GDP grew by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, which is considered a strong performance within the Eurozone [1] Sector Performance - The aerospace sector's supply constraints have eased, contributing to a 1.3% increase in industrial production quarter-on-quarter [1] - Manufacturing exports rose by 4.8% quarter-on-quarter, indicating robust performance in this sector [1] - Corporate investment increased by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, while public consumption remained resilient [1] Consumer Behavior - Household consumption has stagnated due to weak expectations for the future, which remains a significant drag on economic growth [1] - The unemployment rate reached 7.7% of the labor force, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points, the highest level since Q3 2021 [1] Inflation and Purchasing Power - In November, France's inflation rate rose by 0.9% year-on-year, making it one of the countries with the lowest inflation rates in the Eurozone [1] - Despite upcoming increases in pensions and minimum wages in January, the growth in household purchasing power is expected to lag behind economic activity levels [1] - The savings rate is projected to decline from a peak of 18.7% a year ago to 18.0% by mid-2026 [1] External and Internal Uncertainties - There are multiple uncertainties to monitor, including the unpredictable nature of U.S. trade policies and the potential for lower international oil prices to support European recovery [2] - France's fiscal policy direction remains unclear, while signs of recovery in corporate investment are evident, but consumer spending recovery is still uncertain [2]

Core Insights - The average price of a basket of consumer goods in Bosnia and Herzegovina is reported to be 3,355.25 marks as of November 2025, indicating significant pressure on residents' purchasing power [1] - The average wage in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina covers only 47.78% of the consumer basket, while the minimum wage covers just 29.80%, highlighting the financial strain on households [1] Summary by Categories - **Consumer Basket Composition**: The consumer basket is based on the average wage and the minimum living costs for a typical family of four, including seven categories: - Food (42.64%) - Housing and Utilities (14.73%) - Health and Medical (9.25%) - Education and Culture (10.73%) - Clothing and Footwear (11.92%) - Transportation (4.77%) - Household Maintenance (5.96%) [1] - **Household Financial Pressure**: The structure of the consumer basket indicates that food expenditures constitute the largest share of household expenses, further emphasizing the basic living cost pressures faced by ordinary families [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques the common investment framework that relies on predicting export data to derive macroeconomic indicators and corporate profits, arguing that this approach is fundamentally flawed due to the high difficulty in accurately forecasting export data [3]. Group 1: Flaws in Current Investment Framework - The article emphasizes that predicting export data leads to significant misjudgments in macroeconomic indicators, such as PPI and GDP, with a 10% misjudgment in exports potentially causing a 2% misjudgment in PPI and a 0.4-0.5% misjudgment in GDP [3]. - An example is provided where the market expected a 0-2% growth in April exports, but the actual growth was 8.1%, highlighting the fragility of investment decisions based on export predictions [3]. Group 2: Recommended Analysis Logic - The article suggests focusing on the status of the U.S. discretionary consumer sector as a more reliable indicator for assessing export trends [4]. - It discusses the importance of predicting the "turnover rate" of exports, which is influenced by global demand stability, particularly the U.S. import growth rate [4]. - The U.S. accounts for approximately 15-16% of global imports and about one-third of global final consumption, making its import growth a critical factor for global trade dynamics [4]. Group 3: U.S. Tariff Impact and Consumer Power - The article notes that the current academic research on U.S. tariff elasticity may not apply due to recent high tariff changes, complicating the assessment of tariffs' impact on imports [5]. - It emphasizes the need to evaluate whether U.S. consumers can absorb the impact of tariffs, which is crucial for maintaining corporate revenues and economic stability [5]. - The discretionary consumer sector is highlighted as particularly sensitive to tariff changes, with a focus on the performance of high-yield corporate bonds in this sector as an early indicator of risk [5]. Group 4: Current Investment Context and Insights - The article identifies "certainty" as the current investment backdrop, contrasting the Chinese government's stability-focused approach with the uncertainty generated by U.S. policies [6]. - It suggests that the volatility of the Chinese financial market is likely to be lower than that of the U.S. due to the government's commitment to market stability [6]. - The article provides three insights: the potential for lower asset price volatility compared to economic data volatility, the need for caution regarding mid-term risks, and the importance of monitoring institutional behaviors in the market [6][8]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The recommended investment posture is "high allocation, low volatility," suggesting that investors should maintain a high allocation to capitalize on potential government interventions that may mitigate risks [8]. - The article argues that excessive pessimism is unwarranted in the current environment, as government actions may counterbalance some downward risks [8].