在最近几年此起彼伏的结构性市场中，有人热衷于追逐短期热点，有人却锚定产业脉络深耕长期价值。当市场目光聚焦于新旧动能切换的关键机遇，一位 历经十六载投研锤炼的"穿越周期的基本面投资者"，正凭借扎实的研究功底与成熟的投资框架，在波动中持续为投资者创造收益，他就是泉果基金董事总 经理、研究部总经理刚登峰。 这位拥有十六年从业经验的投研老将，将其历经市场打磨的投资框架，凝练为从宏观周期研究到中观产业捕捉，"从产业逻辑的角度去把握产业周期，通 过抓住产业趋势来获取投资机会"，最终落地为精选"高质量+成长"型公司的完整链条。 在刚登峰看来，当前经济转型已接近尾声，长期来看，现在A股、港股，都是一个非常好的投资时期。当下乃至未来的最大机遇正蕴藏于科技、新能源与 周期这三大脉络的产业景气度之中。这一判断，也将成为其在泉果的首只开放式基金"泉果竞争优势"的核心投资逻辑。 经历多轮牛熊转换 "好公司"是核心选股标准 刚登峰拥有16年证券从业经验和11年投资管理经验。他的投研生涯始于2009年，作为一名周期行业研究员，他早期研究房地产、机械等周期板块，亲自见 证了"周期"的力量——它可以从波峰跌至谷底，也在轮回中孕育着巨大的机遇。 ...

在最近几年此起彼伏的结构性市场中，有人热衷于追逐短期热点，有人却锚定产业脉络深耕长期价 值。当市场目光聚焦于新旧动能切换的关键机遇，一位历经十六载投研锤炼的 " 穿越周期的基本面 投资者 " ，正凭借扎实的研究功底与成熟的投资框架，在波动中持续为投资者创造收益，他就是泉 果基金董事总经理、研究部总经理刚登峰。 这位拥有十六年从业经验的投研老将，将其历经市场打磨的投资框架，凝练为从宏观周期研究到中观 产业捕捉， " 从产业逻辑的角度去把握产业周期，通过抓住产业趋势来获取投资机会 " ，最终落地 为精选 " 高质量 + 成长 " 型公司的完整链条。 在刚登峰看来，当前经济转型已接近尾声，长期来看，现在 A 股、港股，都是一个非常好的投资时 期。当下乃至未来的最大机遇正蕴藏于科技、新能源与周期这三大脉络的产业景气度之中。这一判 断，也将成为其在泉果的首只开放式基金 " 泉果竞争优势 " 的核心投资逻辑。 经历多轮牛熊转换 " 好公司 " 是核心选股标准 刚登峰拥有 16 年证券从业经验和 11 年投资管理经验。他的投研生涯始于 2009 年，作为一名周期 行业研究员，他早期研究房地产、机械等周期板块，亲自见证了 " ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how to avoid being "slaughtered" in investments, emphasizing the importance of preserving capital and maintaining the ability, courage, and willingness to seize future investment opportunities [2]. Group 1: Caution with Leverage - The first step to "preserving the green mountains" is to use leverage cautiously, even when confidence is high. Past experiences in the Hong Kong stock market demonstrated that leverage can amplify volatility, leading to significant emotional and financial distortions [2][3]. - Leverage acts as an "amplifier" of emotional and cognitive flaws, significantly increasing the likelihood of permanent capital loss, especially during market downturns [3]. Group 2: Establishing a Clear Investment Framework - The second step is to establish a clear investment framework, which involves defining buy and sell logic and executing it consistently. Different frameworks, such as value investing, trend following, or macroeconomic cycles, require adherence to their specific principles [5]. - A well-defined investment framework helps confirm investment beliefs and allows for the transformation of abstract opportunities into actionable rules, fostering confidence during setbacks [5]. Group 3: Embracing the Power of Learning - The third step is to believe in the power of learning and to integrate it into daily life. As markets evolve, individuals must continuously update their cognitive frameworks to navigate complex systems effectively [6]. - Effective learning strategies include creating reading plans and maintaining investment journals to document core arguments and conditions for buying and selling, which aids in cognitive iteration and decision-making [6].

Market Overview - The market has experienced a "nine consecutive days of gains," creating a facade of prosperity, but underlying issues persist as many stocks are declining while the index rises [1][3] - The current market situation is characterized by "index inflation and individual stock bleeding," where a few large-cap stocks are driving the index up, leaving many ordinary stocks behind [3] Investment Sentiment - Retail investors are facing a challenging environment, as their accounts are not recovering but instead are becoming more entrenched in losses despite the index's performance [3][8] - The market is filled with stories of investors making impulsive decisions, often relying on hope rather than a structured investment strategy [8] Futures Market Insights - Citic Futures has increased its long positions in the CSI 300 index futures by 981 contracts and its short positions by 919 contracts, indicating a "bullish" signal, although this prediction may be incorrect [4] - In the CSI 1000 index futures, Citic Futures increased long positions by 929 contracts and short positions by 965 contracts, providing a "bearish" signal, which was accurate [4] Stock Performance Highlights - Victory Energy has seen a significant rise, hitting the limit up for 12 consecutive trading days, despite warnings of potential suspension for further increases [5] - The phenomenon of "cross-year dragons," where certain stocks experience substantial gains at year-end, is noted, suggesting that investors are keenly watching for such opportunities [6] Investment Strategy - Successful investors are encouraged to adopt a rational, systematic approach to investing, avoiding reliance on luck or speculative strategies [8] - The importance of having a clear investment framework, risk management strategies, and contingency plans is emphasized to navigate market uncertainties effectively [8]

昨天闭门投资课的文章发出去以后，引发了很多的反馈和问题，在这里有必要回应解答一下。 我并不是要开展知识付费的收入第二曲线，并不指望靠这个赚钱。 知识付费这个领域，每年变现最高的估计也就千万。大家都知道，我不缺几千万。 这门课程是我人生中的一个意外，并不在规划之中。 从0开始学投资 文章里面已经写得很清楚，这个课程早就讲完了，PPT都是现成的。之所以会做这个课程，因为一些偶然的好感和责任心引 发。也是希望对自己的投资框架，做一个系统的再思考，做一个返璞归真的归纳和总结。 之所以愿意做成一个线下课程再讲一遍，是因为我想要一本书，自己手写太慢，口头讲课然后请人编辑整理的方式，能高效率低时间投入 的收获一本书。 书籍出版合作方，我选了中信出版社，感谢新经济事业部和财经事业部的两位老师对我都有兴趣。 2，持有基金2年以上，或500万以上的投资人，免费赠送线下课程。 如果您有兴趣，请联系我的同事们。 另外，号称自己也长得很帅擅长跳舞，也没有上过好的大学，也想学投资的男生们， 请不要联系我了。 我不可能在同一个地方摔两次跤 。 过去半年的经历，只是我人生中的一个意外插曲，帮我学习了社会和人性的多元。 我认知到，不同成长环境 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of managing information overload in both parenting and investing, suggesting that quality of cognition is more crucial than the quantity of information consumed [2][3][5]. Group 1: Information Overload in Investing - Investors face an overwhelming amount of financial information daily, with active A-share investors potentially encountering over 100,000 words of financial content each day, equivalent to a medium-sized book [3]. - The tendency to seek more information in decision-making can lead to a cycle of fatigue and minimal returns, highlighting the need for effective information management [3][5]. Group 2: Cognitive Quality vs. Information Quantity - The quality of cognitive processing is more decisive for investment success than the sheer volume of information available, indicating that deep research and understanding of investment logic are essential [5]. - Investors are encouraged to build personal information filtering systems and practice "information dieting" to enhance decision-making quality [5]. Group 3: Strategies for Information Management - Investors should prioritize information based on their investment framework, focusing on intrinsic value for long-term investments or market sentiment for trend trading [6]. - Proactive control over information intake is necessary to allocate time for critical thinking, especially as global data volume is projected to increase significantly [7].

Market Overview - The overall market has experienced a decline, closing at 4.3 stars [1] - Large, medium, and small-cap stocks have all decreased, with small-cap stocks showing greater volatility [2] - The STAR Market and securities indices have seen significant declines [3] - The STAR 50 index rose to an overvalued position in the past two weeks before experiencing a pullback [4][5] - Consumer sectors have also shown signs of decline [6] - Hong Kong stocks have exhibited smaller fluctuations compared to A-shares, with Hong Kong dividends remaining relatively strong [7][8] - Recent global stock market fluctuations have indirectly impacted both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [9] Global Market Influence - Last week, global stock markets saw a downturn, particularly in Europe, while A-shares managed to rise [10] - This week, global markets continued to decline, with Hong Kong stocks showing slight gains and A-shares experiencing minor drops [11] - Fluctuations in overseas markets have affected the performance of RMB assets, although RMB assets have shown less volatility due to valuation advantages [12][13] Investment Strategies - For index funds, it is easier to determine if a stock or fund is overvalued or undervalued by referring to daily published index valuation tables [14][15] - The valuation table categorizes indices into green (undervalued), yellow (fairly valued), and red (overvalued) [17][18] - Being in the undervalued range does not imply that the index will not experience fluctuations [19][20] - Regular investments in undervalued areas can help average down costs, leading to potential gains when market conditions improve [23] Fund Management Insights - Active funds present more challenges in valuation as fund managers do not disclose current holdings, only showing them in quarterly reports [28] - Investors can assess active funds by understanding the manager's investment style or industry focus [29][30] - Active funds often have performance benchmarks, which may change to reflect the manager's actual investment direction [36][37] - A diversified active fund portfolio can reference overall market valuations for investment decisions [40][41] Tools and Resources - The "Today’s Star" mini-program has expanded its percentile valuation table for indices, allowing users to purchase corresponding index funds [43] - Users can filter by categories such as broad-based, strategy, industry, theme, and global indices for targeted investments [43] Investor Mindset - Mature investors understand the importance of establishing a suitable investment framework, recognizing that market fluctuations are unpredictable [45] - Continuous learning and rational decision-making are essential to mitigate emotional impacts on investments, with a stable mindset being key to achieving sustained returns [45]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this year, leading to improved performance for many actively managed equity funds, although some funds have lagged due to structural market conditions, prompting fund managers to express apologies in their semi-annual reports [1][2]. Fund Performance and Apologies - Fund types expressing apologies include underperforming pharmaceutical funds, dividend funds, and growth funds, indicating a need for fund managers to reassess their investment frameworks and for investors to discern between short-term market style mismatches and long-term managerial capabilities [2][5]. - A pharmaceutical fund manager acknowledged underperformance relative to industry indices and expressed regret for not achieving absolute returns, attributing the poor performance to premature shifts in investment strategy and missed opportunities in the "new drug + new consumption" sector [4][5]. - A dividend fund manager reported negative returns in the first half of 2025, citing both objective market conditions and subjective misjudgments as reasons for underperformance, particularly in avoiding high-recognition sectors while focusing on low-recognition ones [7][8]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The pharmaceutical sector has seen significant activity, particularly in innovative drug companies, with some funds achieving substantial gains, while others have struggled due to conservative positioning [4][5]. - Fund managers are optimistic about future performance, highlighting potential in low-positioned sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, such as AI healthcare and medical devices, and committing to a more proactive investment approach [5][10]. - Some fund managers reflected on missed opportunities due to early profit-taking and emphasized the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective despite short-term challenges [10][11]. Performance Data - Data from Wind indicates that several funds that apologized for their performance have rebounded in the second half of the year, with some achieving net value growth rates of 20% to 30%, significantly outperforming their benchmarks [14][15]. - Specific fund performance metrics show that a dividend mixed fund had a net value growth rate of -3.31% in the first half but rebounded to 11.40% in the second half, while other funds also demonstrated similar recovery trends [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques the common investment framework that relies on predicting export data to derive macroeconomic indicators and corporate profits, arguing that this approach is fundamentally flawed due to the high difficulty in accurately forecasting export data [3]. Group 1: Flaws in Current Investment Framework - The article emphasizes that predicting export data leads to significant misjudgments in macroeconomic indicators, such as PPI and GDP, with a 10% misjudgment in exports potentially causing a 2% misjudgment in PPI and a 0.4-0.5% misjudgment in GDP [3]. - An example is provided where the market expected a 0-2% growth in April exports, but the actual growth was 8.1%, highlighting the fragility of investment decisions based on export predictions [3]. Group 2: Recommended Analysis Logic - The article suggests focusing on the status of the U.S. discretionary consumer sector as a more reliable indicator for assessing export trends [4]. - It discusses the importance of predicting the "turnover rate" of exports, which is influenced by global demand stability, particularly the U.S. import growth rate [4]. - The U.S. accounts for approximately 15-16% of global imports and about one-third of global final consumption, making its import growth a critical factor for global trade dynamics [4]. Group 3: U.S. Tariff Impact and Consumer Power - The article notes that the current academic research on U.S. tariff elasticity may not apply due to recent high tariff changes, complicating the assessment of tariffs' impact on imports [5]. - It emphasizes the need to evaluate whether U.S. consumers can absorb the impact of tariffs, which is crucial for maintaining corporate revenues and economic stability [5]. - The discretionary consumer sector is highlighted as particularly sensitive to tariff changes, with a focus on the performance of high-yield corporate bonds in this sector as an early indicator of risk [5]. Group 4: Current Investment Context and Insights - The article identifies "certainty" as the current investment backdrop, contrasting the Chinese government's stability-focused approach with the uncertainty generated by U.S. policies [6]. - It suggests that the volatility of the Chinese financial market is likely to be lower than that of the U.S. due to the government's commitment to market stability [6]. - The article provides three insights: the potential for lower asset price volatility compared to economic data volatility, the need for caution regarding mid-term risks, and the importance of monitoring institutional behaviors in the market [6][8]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The recommended investment posture is "high allocation, low volatility," suggesting that investors should maintain a high allocation to capitalize on potential government interventions that may mitigate risks [8]. - The article argues that excessive pessimism is unwarranted in the current environment, as government actions may counterbalance some downward risks [8].