Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of escalating trade tensions between the US and China on oil demand and prices, highlighting a downward trend in oil prices due to these tensions and an oversupply forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [1][2][3] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - On October 14, oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $58.70 per barrel, down $0.79 (1.33%), and Brent crude at $62.39 per barrel, down $0.93 (1.47%) [1] - The IEA warns of a significant oversupply in 2026, potentially reaching 4 million barrels per day, exacerbated by ongoing trade tensions [2][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes a shift in market dynamics from traditional supply-demand analysis to a focus on geopolitical and financial factors, indicating a new competitive landscape driven by soft power [1][5] - The failure of OPEC's gradual production increase strategy to balance supply and demand is noted, alongside the continuous rise in US shale oil production disrupting traditional capacity control mechanisms [2][3] Group 3: Future Market Predictions - Predictions for 2026 include a supply surplus of 4 million barrels per day and Brent crude prices averaging $56 per barrel, with OPEC expected to regain market control as non-OPEC supply declines [4] - The future of the oil market will involve a re-evaluation of value based on cost structures and geopolitical alliances, with a focus on psychological price points around $60 per barrel [4][5]