通过邓正红软实力模型的"政策-地缘-心理"三维框架，揭示当前油价下跌背后的深层动因，政治言论对原油市场的非对称软实力系数已达警戒水平。政策软 实力折损引发的市场信任危机，行政干预冲击政策信用。特朗普试图罢免美联储理事库克的行为，实质是行政权对货币政策独立性的侵蚀。根据邓正红软实 力指数评估，此类非常规政治操作直接导致美国金融治理体系的"政策软实力"指标下降17个百分点。历史数据显示，每当美联储独立性遭到质疑时，WTI原 油30日波动率平均上升4.2个标准差。关税武器的可信度衰减，美国对印度拟征的50%原油关税存在三重软实力缺陷：时效性矛盾，俄乌冲突持续；执行层 漏洞，未明确炼厂转口贸易监管；历史履约偏差，特朗普任内37%的关税威胁最终未实施。这种"狼来了"效应使得市场提前消化了80%的政策冲击。 特朗普试图罢免美联储理事引发市场震荡，油价下跌；乌克兰袭击俄罗斯输油管道加剧供应焦虑，地缘政治溢价达每桶3.20美元。邓正红模型揭示：政策信 用崩塌、非国家行为体破坏、政治言论蝴蝶效应正形成三重压制。邓正红软实力表示，投资者在等待更明确的供应信号，同时也在关注美国总统特朗普试图 将一名美联储理事免职所引发的更广泛市场 ...

美联储鸽派信号提振油价，但供应过剩隐忧犹存。鲍威尔降息预期推升原油金融属性，俄乌僵局与委内瑞拉博弈交织，摩根士丹利预警明年或现140万桶的 过剩日产能，欧佩克减产机制成关键支撑。邓正红软实力表示，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示对9月降息持开放态度，抵消供应前景日益偏空的影响，石油软实力 向上盘整，周五（8月22日）国际油价小幅走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油10月期货结算价每桶涨0.14美元至63.66美元，涨幅 0.22%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油10月期货结算价每桶涨0.06美元至67.73美元，涨幅0.09%。在美联储主席鲍威尔于杰克逊霍尔年会释放鸽派信号后，市 场对9月降息的预期升温，美元走软，原油走高。由于市场预期在夏季需求高峰结束后，全球市场将面临供应过剩，油价涨幅受到限制。俄罗斯与乌克兰即 将达成和平协议的希望转淡，在结束俄乌冲突的和平协议方面几乎没有进展的迹象，乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，他并未就可能的谈判与俄罗斯进行任何接 触。 关键趋势预判。短期：鲍威尔鸽派言论的软实力效应可持续2-3周，但需警惕8月31日美国商业原油库存数据冲击；中期：摩根士丹利预测的每桶60美元目标 价存在超调风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic downturn has significantly impacted risk appetite, leading to a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.2%, a substantial downward revision of new job additions, and accelerated contraction in the manufacturing sector, all contributing to increased demand for safe-haven assets and a sharp decline in oil prices [1][2][3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 110,000 [2][3] - Job additions for May and June were revised down significantly, with a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [2][3] - The manufacturing PMI for July dropped to 48, below the expected 49.5 and indicating contraction for five consecutive months [3] Oil Market Dynamics - The current weakness in oil prices reflects a struggle between macroeconomic risks and supply-demand fundamentals, with macroeconomic sentiment suppressing market performance [2][3] - The oil market is facing a balance dilemma for producing countries between short-term revenue and long-term market share, with OPEC's potential production increase possibly exacerbating supply surplus [3] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to a combination of negative macroeconomic data, rising unemployment, and the impact of tariff policies, which have collectively heightened risk aversion and led to a drop in risk asset prices [1][2][3] Demand Outlook - There is a consensus that oil demand may accelerate its decline this quarter due to escalating global trade tensions and slowing economic growth, aligning with historical patterns observed during recessionary cycles [3] - The IMF has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3%, further suppressing oil demand expectations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The market showed a divergence this week after a rebound last week, and the spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and attention should be paid to the process of fundamental repair. Recently, supply and demand tend to gradually digest the inventory accumulated in the second quarter [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7400, 7395, and 7335 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -104, -98, and -121 yuan/ton and drops of -1.39%, -1.31%, and -1.62% respectively. The trading volumes were 114997, 1587, and 388896, and the open interests were 157846, 7336, and 346401, with changes of 5906, 528, and -20147 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 60, and -65 respectively [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7136, 7137, and 7130 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -100, -90, and -91 yuan/ton and drops of -1.38%, -1.25%, and -1.26% respectively. The trading volumes were 120821, 2000, and 344922, and the open interests were 165953, 9581, and 325802, with changes of -3873, -366, and -29838 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -1, 7, and -6 respectively [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2435 yuan/ton, 6220 yuan/ton, 544 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: The current prices of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7650, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively; the current prices of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7150, 7000 - 7150, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Tuesday (July 29), the settlement price of West Texas Light Crude Oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $69.21 per barrel, up $2.50 or 3.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.53 - $69.76. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $72.51 per barrel, up $2.47 or 3.53% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.86 - $73.08 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing a mixed sentiment due to improving risk appetite from trade negotiations between the US and EU, and the resumption of US-China economic talks, while uncertainties from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions continue to suppress oil prices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - US crude oil inventories have decreased overall, with diesel inventories hitting a historical low, providing market support [2][3]. - The overall commercial oil inventory in the US fell by 5.2 million barrels, with gasoline inventories down by 1.7 million barrels, while propane and propylene inventories decreased by 500,000 barrels [2][3]. - The increase in Cushing crude oil inventories to the highest level since June indicates localized pressure on prices, particularly affecting WTI [4][6]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Trade Factors - The US and EU are nearing a 15% tariff agreement, and China is set to hold economic talks with the US from July 27 to 30, which are expected to improve market sentiment [1][3]. - The EU has threatened to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of US goods if trade negotiations fail, adding to market uncertainty [2][4]. - The US-Japan trade agreement is seen as beneficial for the US economy but is not expected to significantly impact US crude oil exports [2][4]. Group 3: Soft Power Analysis - The oil market is in a consolidation phase, with external factors such as trade negotiations and geopolitical risks influencing market dynamics [3][5]. - The "environmental adaptability" factor, which includes geopolitical and trade policy risks, is currently dominating short-term market fluctuations [5][6]. - The interplay between positive market sentiment from trade optimism and negative sentiment from geopolitical uncertainties is creating a cautious trading environment [6].

Group 1 - The European Union has reached an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, which includes measures to further target the Russian oil and energy industry, setting a dynamic price cap on Russian crude oil that is 15% lower than the average market price [2][4] - The market's reaction to the new sanctions has been muted, indicating skepticism among investors regarding the effectiveness of these measures and the potential for enforcement by the Trump administration [2][4] - The sanctions aim to reduce Russian oil revenues, which are a significant source of funding for the country, by lowering the price cap from $60 to $47.60 per barrel [2][4] Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, with a decline in single-family housing starts to an 11-month low, indicating a potential contraction in residential investment due to high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty [1][3] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has improved, and inflation expectations continue to decline, which may lead to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, potentially boosting energy demand [1][3] - The interplay of conflicting economic data is weakening the momentum for oil demand, as the housing market struggles while consumer sentiment shows signs of recovery [3][5] Group 3 - The effectiveness of the EU sanctions is questioned, as the design and intent to suppress Russian oil revenues may not be sufficient to alter the geopolitical landscape or energy market dynamics [4][5] - The potential for supply chain disruptions exists due to the sanctions targeting Russian oil refineries and key importing countries like India, but current models suggest that geopolitical premiums have not yet translated into price support [4][5] - The oil market is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation, with prices influenced by both oversupply concerns and geopolitical risks, reflecting a complex interplay of market sentiment and economic policies [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefin consumption entered a relative off - season, and spot prices were generally mediocre. The futures price fluctuated more with costs and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict, international oil prices declined, weakening cost support. Future focus should be on the cooling of cost - end raw materials mainly crude oil and the reality of the seasonal demand off - season [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7245, 7220, and 7302 respectively, with changes of - 4, - 14, and 2 and percentage changes of - 0.06%, - 0.19%, and 0.03%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 7041, 7019, and 7103, with changes of - 12, - 11, and - 5 and percentage changes of - 0.17%, - 0.16%, and - 0.07%. The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 36087, 214, and 297767, and the trading volumes of PP were 34283, 90, and 223643. The open interests of LL were 115196, 1241, and 460583, and those of PP were 100898, 1141, and 425262. The changes in open interests of LL were - 2223, 57, and - 10437, and those of PP were 313, 2, and - 4105 [2] - **Spread Information**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 25, - 82, and 57, compared with previous values of 15, - 66, and 51. For PP, the current spreads were 22, - 84, and 62, compared with previous values of 23, - 78, and 55 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2397 yuan/ton, 6700 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2419 yuan/ton, 6740 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Market**: The current spot price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7800 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7350 - 7800 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7500 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the three markets were 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and the previous price ranges were 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (June 27), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.52 per barrel, up $0.28 or 0.43% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.80 - $66.09. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.77 per barrel, up $0.04 or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.20 - $68.42 [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: June 19, 2025 [2] Market Conditions - Futures Market: L2509 opened higher, fluctuated upwards during the session, and closed up at 7,418 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan/ton (1.7%), with a trading volume of 430,000 lots and a decrease of 9,972 lots in positions to 431,735 lots. PP2509 closed at 7,214 yuan/ton, up 107 yuan (1.51%), with an increase of 21,500 lots in positions to 477,100 lots [5]. - Spot Market: In the spot market, the price of LLDPE in North China was in the range of 7,330 - 7,480 yuan/ton, in East China 7,400 - 7,800 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,550 - 7,750 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of drawn - wire PP in North China was 7,140 - 7,280 yuan/ton, in East China 7,200 - 7,270 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,150 - 7,330 yuan/ton [5]. Core Viewpoint - Polyolefins are in a stage of strong cost and weak supply - demand game. In the short term, the cost logic supports the upward movement of the polyolefin price center, but downstream demand is difficult to follow up, and the basis of plastics and PP continues to weaken. Attention should be paid to news guidance, and be vigilant against the risk of high - level decline of polyolefins due to the fading of geopolitical risk premium [6]. Industry News - On June 18, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 785,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (1.88%) from the previous working day, compared with 775,000 tons in the same period last year [8]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of easing, and Trump has no intention of nuclear talks with Iran again. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified, and European and American crude oil futures closed up more than 4% again. On June 17, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $74.84 per barrel, up $3.07 (4.28%), with a trading range of $71 - $75.54; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $76.45 per barrel, up $3.22 (4.40%), with a trading range of $72.66 - $77.20 [8][9]. - The PE market price continued to rise. In North China, some linear PE prices increased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure PE prices increased by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure and linear PE prices by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear, low - pressure, and high - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Before the holiday, polyolefins showed a weak performance. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined, and the previous rebound in the market has digested the positive macro - factors at home and abroad. The decline in crude oil prices has reduced the cost support for chemicals, but the slight rebound in international crude oil prices during the long - holiday is conducive to the stabilization of polyolefins [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6923, 6928, and 6960 respectively, with price drops of - 62, - 62, and - 65, and declines of - 0.89%, - 0.89%, and - 0.93%. The trading volumes were 35322, 83, and 311232, and the open interests were 108143, 513, and 548604, with changes of 4615, 39, and 5320. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 5, - 32, and 37 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6802, 6817, and 6875 respectively, with price drops of - 62, - 55, and - 43, and declines of - 0.90%, - 0.80%, and - 0.62%. The trading volumes were 35928, 229, and 267599, and the open interests were 80929, 517, and 514977, with changes of 2828, 193, and - 6161. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 15, - 58, and 73 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2222 yuan/ton, 6410 yuan/ton, 625 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6940 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 7200 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Monday (June 2), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.52 per barrel, up $1.73 or 2.85% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.63 per barrel, up $1.85 or 2.95% from the previous trading day [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential increase in oil production by OPEC, which raises concerns about the dilution of oil's soft power value and the impact on oil prices, leading to a downward trend in international oil prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: OPEC Production Decisions - OPEC is considering increasing production in July, potentially exceeding the previously set daily increase of 410,000 barrels, which could undermine market trust in supply discipline [4]. - The current oil market appears balanced, but increasing production could lead to a price drop of approximately 10%, with WTI crude potentially falling to between $53 and $55 per barrel [2][4]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks, including those from Russia and Iran, continue to provide some support for oil prices despite the weakening spot market [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Predictions - The global oil surplus has expanded to 2.2 million barrels per day, necessitating price adjustments to stimulate supply responses and restore market balance [2][4]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that oil prices may fall below $60 per barrel by the end of the year due to the continuous loss of supply soft power and weak demand recovery [1][5]. - The increase in short positions by hedge funds against Brent crude oil indicates a growing market pessimism regarding demand [3][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-side soft power imbalance and strategic miscalculations are leading to a dilution of oil's value, as OPEC's decision to accelerate production may not align with the weak demand backdrop [4][5]. - Economic pressures, such as weak U.S. GDP data and ongoing trade tensions, are suppressing consumer demand for fuel, contributing to a negative outlook for the demand side [4][5]. - The article highlights the need for OPEC to recalibrate its supply strategy to balance market share protection and price stability, while also addressing demand-side challenges [5].