邓正红软实力表示，美国总统特朗普宣布委内瑞拉将向美国交付3000万至5000万桶石油，此举引发市场对供应增加的担忧。市场在权衡今年全球供应充裕的 预期，以及委内瑞拉原油产量的不确定性，石油软实力运行遇阻，1月6日（周二）国际油价走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油2月 期货结算价每桶跌1.19元至57.13美元，跌幅2.04%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油3月期货结算价每桶跌1.06美元至60.70美元，跌幅1.72%。当地时间1月6日， 美国总统特朗普宣布，委内瑞拉临时政府将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油。这些石油将按市场价格出售，而所得资金将由特朗普进行监管。特朗普称， 已要求能源部长克里斯•赖特立即执行这一计划。石油将由储油船装载，并直接运送至美国的卸货码头。特朗普表示将让美国大型石油公司前往委内瑞拉投 资，重建石油基础设施并为美国"创造收益"。 高盛报告认为，短期内委内瑞拉对油价的影响呈现"模棱两可"的状态，具体取决于美国制裁政策的演变。如果新政府在美方支持下获得全面制裁豁免，通过 进口稀释剂、修复油井及重启受损的升级装置，产量可能在2026年底前日增40万桶。在此情景下，高盛预计 ...

综合分析与未来展望。邓正红软实力理论为理解当前油价波动提供了系统框架。 油价走低是多重软实力要素共振的结果：规则重构（如乌克兰和平谈判） 削弱地缘溢价，预期管理失效（如供应过剩担忧）主导市场情绪，软硬实力协同失衡（如欧佩克战略转型）压制价值创新。未来走势取决于地缘政治进展、 制裁力度及全球经济复苏态势，凸显规则重构与心理预期在能源市场中的主导地位。 这一现象印证了邓正红关于"宇宙本质是隐性规则与显性物质的动态平 衡系统"的核心观点，揭示了能源软实力在全球化背景下的复杂作用机制。 软实力竞争进入"规则-预期"新阶段。就短期来看，油价将维持每桶58~63美元区间震荡，波动率收窄，市场进入"基本面主导、预期修正"的慢变量周期。就 中期来看，若美乌协议落地，俄罗斯原油出口路径重构，全球供应格局将进入"去地缘化"新阶段，软实力竞争焦点将转向，包括欧佩克能否主导"可控增 产"规则，中国能否构建"非美元计价+稳定采购"新体系，绿色能源价值升级是否加速削弱石油软实力的长期基础。就长期来看，石油软实力的终极形态， 是"数字精度×绿色效度"融合的新型能源治理能力，即通过智能预测、碳足迹管理、供应链透明化，实现从"资源控制"到"价 ...

石油软实力的向上盘整：价值创造与战略柔性的体现。邓正红软实力理论指出，软实力通过创造价值、运营协同来实现目标。在石油市场中，软实力表现为 通过供需预期、地缘风险溢价等动态因素影响价格。例如，美国降息预期和地缘风险推动油价走高，本质上是市场对流动性宽松和供应不确定性的价值重 估。这种盘整反映了石油作为战略资源的软实力属性，其价格波动不仅由供需基本面驱动，更受地缘政治价值、市场预期管理等动态因素影响。特朗普政府 保留被扣油轮原油的行为，进一步体现了软实力的博弈逻辑。通过扣押委内瑞拉原油，美国不仅试图削弱马杜罗政府的财政能力，更传递了"规则制定者"的 信号，强化其在国际能源秩序中的价值主导。这种策略符合邓正红理论中"以柔克刚"的智慧，即通过软实力手段实现战略目标。 委内瑞拉困境：软实力缺失与财政脆弱性。委内瑞拉出口量虽不足全球供应的1%，但其收入对马杜罗政府至关重要。美国的行为被委内瑞拉斥为"海盗行 为"，揭示了小国在软实力博弈中的被动地位。邓正红理论强调，软实力缺失会导致国家在危机中陷入"价值创造能力不足—财政支撑削弱—社会稳定性下 降"的恶性循环。委内瑞拉的案例表明，当国家无法通过价值主导或经济活性争取国际支持 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6516 | 6543 | 6568 | 6192 | 6256 | 6291 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 涨跌 | 6522 -6 | 6557 -14 | 6583 -15 | 6178 14 | 6254 2 | 6277 14 | | 货 | | | | | | | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.09% | -0.21% | -0.23% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.22% | | | 成交量 | 74760 | 300927 | 6417 | 128985 | 303323 | 6466 | | 场 | 持仓量 | 135903 | 510143 | 1043 ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 | | | | | | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 6476 | | 6486 | 6519 | 6129 | 6168 | 6211 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 6534 | | 6558 | 6600 | 6177 | 6241 | 6280 | | 货 | 涨跌 -58 | | -72 | -81 | -48 | -73 | -69 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 -0.89% | | -1.10% | -1.23% | -0.78% | -1.17% | -1.10% | | 场 | 成交量 168516 | | 367973 | 5244 | 285479 | 285582 | 3813 | | | 持仓量 | 184121 | 4796 ...

邓正红软实力表示，市场对委内瑞拉石油供应中断存在担忧，但美国股市走软加剧了市场对供应过剩的看空情绪，石油软实力在在震荡运行中略显收缩，12 月12日（周五）国际油价小幅走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶跌0.16元至57.44美元，跌幅0.28%，本周该期 货累计下跌4.39%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结算价每桶跌0.16美元至61.12美元，跌幅0.26%，本周该期货累计下跌4.12%。 供需平衡的规则重构。市场对2026年供应过剩的共识是规则重构的体现。邓正红认为"规则系统驱动物质演化"，当前市场通过期货持仓（看空押注升至七周 高位）和价格预期（推至10月以来区间下沿）完成了对供需规则的重新定价。这种规则重构比实际供需变化更能影响短期价格走势。 市场趋势预测与投资建议。短期震荡：地缘政治风险（规则场）与供需基本面（物质场）的博弈将导致油价持续震荡。任何反弹预计都将短暂。中长期下行 压力：全球石油市场进入累库周期，国际油价运行中枢将明显下移，预计布伦特原油全年均价在每桶65~75美元区间。投资策略：邓正红软实力哲学建议关 注"规则-物质"的协同演化。投资者应同时跟 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. On the spot market, prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of downstream demand is high, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and after the rebound, they generally maintain a low - level oscillation process. Future attention should be paid to marginal consumption, supply, and production scheduling levels [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6776, 6829, and 6867 respectively, down -0.47%, -0.65%, and -0.67% from the day before the previous day. For PP, the corresponding prices were 6359, 6452, and 6482, down -0.36%, -0.40%, and -0.32%. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 210139, 118193, and 1134 respectively. For PP, they were 206027, 87292, and 1646. - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 386484, 269785, and 4453 respectively, with changes of -16226, 14989, and 180. For PP, they were 450199, 292556, and 17718, with changes of -9702, 10392, and 161. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -53, -38, and 91 respectively, compared with -66, -39, and 105 previously. For PP, they were -93, -30, and 123, compared with -96, -25, and 121 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2116 yuan/ton, 6065 yuan/ton, 583 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6150 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. - **Mid - stream**: In the LL market, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China were 6850 - 7250 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively. In the PP market, they were 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6300 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (December 4), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.67 per barrel, up $0.72 or 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.81 - $60.02. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.26 per barrel, up $0.59 or 0.94%, with a trading range of $62.53 - $63.62 [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude oil prices may drop to over $30 per barrel by 2027 due to severe market oversupply issues [1] - Brent crude oil prices have fallen by 14% this year, stabilizing at $62.59 per barrel as of November 24 [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring potential peace negotiations in Ukraine, which could lead to a relaxation of sanctions on Russia and further downward pressure on energy prices [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs forecasts that oil prices will continue to decline from current levels, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil averaging $53 per barrel in 2026 [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a daily oversupply of 2 million barrels in 2026, indicating a significant market imbalance [2] - The firm suggests that 2026 will mark the end of the current large-scale oil supply shock affecting the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have declined due to expectations of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and the influence of U.S. energy policies, highlighting the profound impact of geopolitical dynamics and regulatory restructuring on the energy landscape [1][2][3] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - As of November 21, international oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $58.06 per barrel, down 1.59%, and Brent crude at $62.56 per barrel, down 1.29% [2][3] - The market anticipates increased oil supply if sanctions against Russia are lifted following a potential peace agreement, which could exacerbate existing supply surplus concerns [2][4] Group 2: U.S. Energy Policy - The Trump administration's energy policy prioritizes traditional energy sources and aims to lower energy prices, including measures to relax fossil fuel regulations and expand oil and gas exploration [5][6] - The administration's diplomatic pressure on OPEC to increase production aligns with its goal of reducing overall commodity prices [5][6] Group 3: OPEC's Production Strategy - OPEC, under Saudi leadership, has gradually increased oil production since April, contributing to a sustained rise in market supply [3][6] - Concerns about supply surplus are significant, with projections indicating an average daily surplus of approximately 1.72 million barrels for the year [6] Group 4: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - The ongoing military conflict and the stalled peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are critical factors influencing oil market dynamics [4][7] - The market's expectations regarding the peace agreement and its implications for sanctions and oil supply are central to current oil price movements [7]

Group 1: Oil Price Trends - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil settling at $59.14 per barrel, down 0.50%, and Brent crude oil at $63.38 per barrel, down 0.20% [1] - The market is facing expectations of oversupply due to increased production from OPEC and other oil-producing countries, contributing to a downward trend in oil prices [1][5] - The anticipated return of Russian oil supply to the market, if a peace agreement is reached, could exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, as Russia accounts for 12% of global oil exports [5] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ukrainian President Zelensky has shown openness to reviewing a peace proposal that includes territorial concessions to Russia, which he previously rejected [1] - The upcoming U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil companies are expected to impact market expectations and the overall oil supply landscape [1][5] - The dynamics of the energy market are influenced by the geopolitical landscape, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the associated sanctions on Russia [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Short-term oil price fluctuations are expected to remain within the $60 to $65 per barrel range, driven by sanctions and production plans [2] - The long-term outlook for Russia's market share is contingent upon its ability to innovate and adjust its export structure, as it risks losing ground to OPEC [2][3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a significant increase in global oil supply by 3.1 million barrels per day by 2025, while demand is expected to rise by only 0.79 million barrels per day, indicating a potential supply glut [5] Group 4: Technological and Strategic Shifts - U.S. shale oil producers are leveraging blockchain technology to enhance their market position, transitioning from resource sellers to standard setters [4] - The energy competition is evolving towards a combination of digital rules and geological reserves, highlighting the importance of technological innovation in the energy sector [4] - The shift towards clean energy and the rise of electric vehicles are expected to alter the dynamics of oil market rule-making, potentially disadvantaging traditional oil-exporting economies [4][6]