| | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7178 | 7393 | 7241 | 7054 | 7458 | 7181 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7236 | 7355 | 7270 | 7104 | 7506 | 7226 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -58 | 38 | -29 | -50 | -48 | -45 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.80% | 0.52% | -0.40% | -0.70% | -0.64% | -0.62% | | 场 | 成交量 | 2106 | 1319287 | 180096 | 4816 | 1514753 | 202272 | | | 持仓量 | 1783 | 390543 | 99195 | 6474 | 476193 | 137050 | | | 持仓量 ...

| | | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7081 | 6991 | 7071 | 6948 | 6998 | 7020 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 6684 | 6597 | 6672 | 6593 | 6611 | 6627 | | 期 货 | 涨跌 | 397 | 394 | 399 | 355 | 387 | 393 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 成交量 | 5.94% 1244 | 5.97% 963478 | 5.98% 119036 | 5.38% 1431 | 5.85% 888436 | 5.93% 122800 | | 场 | | | | | | | | | | 持仓量 | 1958 | 505479 | 90112 | 3942 | 498613 | 133948 | | | 持仓量增减 | 1 ...

现货市场看，涨幅前五名的石化产品分别为异丁醛上涨4.12%、五水硫酸铜上涨4.00%、甲酸上涨 3.83%、三羟甲基丙烷上涨3.82%、焦炭上涨3.77%；跌幅前五名的石化产品分别为盐酸下跌11.63%、工 业级氢氧化锂下跌8.28%、电池级氢氧化锂下跌7.05%、工业级碳酸锂下跌6.29%、电池级碳酸锂下跌 6.21%。 资本市场看，涨幅前五名的上市化企分别为神剑股份上涨28.07%、坤彩科技上涨19.05%、海翔药业上 涨18.64%、富淼科技上涨17.94%、润贝航科上涨16.35%；跌幅前五名的上市化企分别为斯迪克下跌 16.68%、龙高股份下跌15.19%、氯碱化工下跌13.45%、科创新源下跌13.43%、国恩股份下跌12.97%。 中化新网讯 上周(2月2日至6日)，受国际金价大幅回调等影响，7个指数样本中仅化学制药指数上涨。 化工板块方面，化工原料指数累计下跌2.02%、化工机械指数累计下跌2.22%、化学制药指数累计上涨 0.64%、农药化肥指数累计下跌3.51%；石油板块方面，石油加工指数累计下跌1.52%、石油开采指数累 计下跌2.60%、石油贸易指数累计下跌1.33%。 上周，国际原油 ...

软实力信号如何转化为油价溢价？邓正红理论强调，"政治信号—市场预期—金融定价"是现代石油价值实现的核心路径，此次美伊互动正是这一机制的典型 体现。特朗普宣布与印度达成贸易协议，表面是经贸安排，实则具有深远地缘意图。印度承诺停止购买俄油，转而采购美国及委内瑞拉原油；这不仅削弱俄 罗斯能源收入，更强化美国对全球石油流向的"规则引导力"；同时，印度转向中东以外的供应源，间接提升对波斯湾原油的战略依赖，反向推高该区域地缘 溢价。 美国在中东增兵、护航商船，并非单纯军事行为，而是"软实力信号"的投射。通过展示"保护航道安全"的能力，美国强化其作为"全球能源秩序维护者"的角 色；此举赢得部分产油国与消费国的信任，巩固其在能源治理体系中的话语权；但同时也激化与伊朗的对抗，形成"越维稳、越动荡"的悖论式循环。 邓正红软实力表示，美伊局势不确定性萦绕，地缘扰动不断、短期利多因素犹存，石油软实力向上盘整，2月3日（周二）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商 品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油3月期货结算价每桶涨1.07元至63.21美元，涨幅1.72%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油4月期货结算价每桶涨1.03美元至67.33 美元，涨幅1.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The improvement in Kazakhstan's supply outlook is a key factor driving the decline in oil prices, overshadowing concerns about supply disruptions caused by severe winter storms in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On January 26, international oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $60.63 per barrel, down 0.72%, and Brent crude at $65.59 per barrel, down 0.44% [1] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to Kazakhstan's readiness to restore production at its largest oil field and the resumption of full capacity at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal [1][3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Kazakhstan's energy ministry announced the readiness to resume production, enhancing supply confidence and directly contributing to lower oil prices [3] - The severe winter storm in the U.S. has led to a reduction of approximately 250,000 barrels per day in U.S. crude oil production, particularly affecting regions like Oklahoma's Bakken oil field and parts of Texas [1][3] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly with U.S. military deployments, have raised concerns about potential threats to Iranian oil production, adding complexity to the oil market [1][3] - The current oil price environment is characterized by a mix of factors, including the interplay between Kazakhstan's supply increase and the supply decrease due to adverse weather in the U.S., alongside geopolitical risks in the Middle East [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - Polyolefin futures continued to rebound. The fundamentals currently focus on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of macro factors on commodities has increased. The rebound in international crude oil prices also supports chemicals at the cost end. Overall, the current spot drive for polyolefins is relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6974, 6935, and 6962 respectively, with increases of 88, 70, and 75 and涨幅 of 1.28%, 1.02%, and 1.09% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6716, 6737, and 6778 respectively, with increases of 71, 81, and 90 and涨幅 of 1.07%, 1.22%, and 1.35% respectively [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes for LL January, May, and September contracts were 137, 611978, and 42216 respectively, and the open interests were 187, 515013, and 69905 respectively, with open interest changes of 35, -4043, and 4941 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 468, 524463, and 40252 respectively, and the open interests were 2132, 521131, and 106892 respectively, with open interest changes of 134, 22199, and 7638 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 39, -27, and -12 respectively, compared to the previous values of 21, -22, and 1. For PP, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -21, -41, and 62 respectively, compared to the previous values of -11, -32, and 43 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2346 yuan/ton, 9350 yuan/ton, 631 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6510 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous values of 2298 yuan/ton, 6175 yuan/ton, 612 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6460 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 6950 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous ranges of 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 (8100 - 8250), and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6550 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous ranges of 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6650 yuan/ton [2] News - On Monday (January 26), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.63 per barrel, down $0.44 or 0.72% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.32 - $61.71. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.59 per barrel, down $0.29 or 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.29 - $66.54 [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The polyolefin futures closed with a negative line and rebounded at night. Sinopec and PetroChina kept the prices of linear LL and drawn PP stable. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the macro - to - commodity transmission has increased. The rebound of international crude oil prices also supports chemicals at the cost end. However, the short - term shock of crude oil after the rebound has an impact on chemicals. Polyolefin may experience short - term shocks after continuous rebounds [2] Group 3: Futures Market Summary Price and Volume - For linear LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6720, 6666, and 6694 respectively, with price increases of 14, 26, and 30, and increases of 0.21%, 0.39%, and 0.45% respectively. The trading volumes were 40, 374602, and 16431 respectively, and the open interests were 88, 504362, and 52481 respectively, with changes of 17, 9150, and 1432 respectively [2] - For drawn PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6493, 6485, and 6519 respectively, with price increases of 34, 24, and 27, and increases of 0.53%, 0.37%, and 0.42% respectively. The trading volumes were 211, 291242, and 17041 respectively, and the open interests were 644, 468323, and 85636 respectively, with changes of 58, 2082, and - 349 respectively [2] Spread - For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are 54, - 28, and - 26 respectively, compared with the previous values of 66, - 24, and - 42 [2] - For drawn PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are 8, - 34, and 26 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 2, - 31, and 33 [2] Group 4: Spot Market Summary Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products - The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2208 yuan/ton, 6170 yuan/ton, 602 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6270 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some slight changes compared to the previous values [2] Middle - stream Products - The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [2] Group 5: News - On Wednesday (January 21), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.62 per barrel, up $0.26 or 0.43% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.22 - $60.89. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.24 per barrel, up $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.61 - $65.41 [2]

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical raw materials index increased by 1.10%, while the chemical machinery index rose by 2.87%. However, the chemical pharmaceuticals index decreased by 1.41%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index increased by 2.99% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included liquid chlorine, which surged by 92.93%, industrial-grade lithium carbonate, which rose by 25.75%, and propylene oxide, which increased by 8.84% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products included vitamin D3, which fell by 4.17%, methyl acrylate, which decreased by 3.92%, and nitric acid, which dropped by 2.51% [1] Group 2: Oil Sector Performance - The oil processing index decreased by 3.66%, and the oil extraction index fell by 0.36%, while the oil trading index increased by 4.17% [1] - As of January 16, the settlement price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $59.44 per barrel, up 0.54% from January 9, and the settlement price for Brent crude oil was $64.13 per barrel, up 1.25% from January 9 [1] Group 3: Listed Chemical Companies - The top five rising listed chemical companies included Bofei Electric, which increased by 61.06%, Qicai Chemical, which rose by 27.94%, and Aladdin, which gained 20.24% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies included Zaiseng Technology, which fell by 26.65%, ST Jiaao, which decreased by 18.42%, and Pulit, which dropped by 17.28% [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the rising geopolitical tensions in Iran and the potential actions by the United States, which have kept risk premiums high in the oil market [5][14][15] - West Texas Intermediate crude oil for February 2026 settled at $62.02 per barrel, up $0.87 or 1.42%, while Brent crude for March 2026 settled at $66.52 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.60% [5][14] - Analysts from Citibank noted that while protests in Iran may lead to short-term supply reductions, the primary impact is an increase in geopolitical risk, raising associated risk premiums [5][14] Group 2 - Unexpected increases in U.S. crude oil inventories have suppressed upward price momentum, with total U.S. crude oil inventories rising to 836.125 million barrels, an increase of 3.605 million barrels from the previous week [7][16] - The U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.753 million barrels per day, a decrease of 58,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 272,000 barrels compared to the same week last year [8][17] - The U.S. crude oil net imports increased by nearly 5 million barrels, with the average daily net imports reaching 2.786 million barrels [7][16]

Core Viewpoint - East Asian refineries are expected to continue increasing purchases of US light low-sulfur crude oil by 2026 to diversify supply channels, mitigate geopolitical risks, and enhance refining profits while maintaining diplomatic relations with the US [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - East Asian refineries, particularly in South Korea, Japan, and Thailand, are shifting from high-sulfur crude oil to US light low-sulfur crude oil to improve energy supply security and stabilize supply chains [1][2]. - Japan's crude oil imports from the US surged to 106,300 barrels per day in October 2025, a more than 26-fold increase from 4,029 barrels year-on-year, and nearly tripled from 36,200 barrels in September 2025 [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The narrowing price differential between Brent and Dubai crude oil futures has made US West Texas Intermediate crude more economically attractive compared to mainstream heavy sour crude, leading to a shift in refining profit margins [2][3]. - South Korea is projected to remain the largest buyer of US crude oil in Asia, with an expected annual purchase of 136 million barrels in 2025 [2]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - Thailand has committed to increasing US crude oil purchases as part of a bilateral trade agreement framework announced on October 26, 2025, aimed at deepening cooperation with the US [4]. - South Korea signed a $100 billion energy procurement agreement with the US, which is a key component of a broader trade agreement to reduce mutual tariffs from 25% to 15% [4]. - Japan and the US signed a comprehensive trade and investment agreement on October 28, 2025, which includes Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in US energy infrastructure and related sectors [4].