邓正红软实力表示，市场聚焦供应，过剩迹象日益增加，导致由美国制裁俄罗斯石油巨头所引发的强劲涨势消退，拖累石油软实力运行，周二（10月28日） 国际油价走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油12月期货结算价每桶跌1.16元至60.15美元，跌幅1.89%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油12 月期货结算价每桶跌1.22美元至64.40美元，跌幅1.86%。在投机性押注大规模平仓后，投资者重新布局，押注即将到来的供应过剩将推动油价下行。全球海 运原油规模创纪录新高，显示过剩供应持续攀升。欧佩克联盟本周末会议可能同意增产。 在供给持续增长但消费增量有限的背景下，原油市场将在较长时间处于供给过剩状态，中长期油价面临明显的下行压力。今年以来，美国石油行业产出低 迷，主要原因在于资本约束导致钻探活动减少，而油价的持续低迷又限制了页岩油企业的上游投资。在经济增长动力不足的大背景下，原油需求前景受到持 续抑制。多家机构纷纷下调今年全球原油需求增量预期，且增幅预计低于去年。在供给增量冲击与需求转弱预期的双重作用下，未来原油市场仍将面临供给 过剩的局面。不过，近期贸易局势的缓和以及全球地缘局势的不稳定，将阶段性提升原油估值 ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts an increase in global oil supply, leading to a more severe oversupply situation by 2025, with daily supply expected to grow by 3 million barrels to 106.1 million barrels per day [3] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the upcoming meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin regarding the Ukraine conflict, may influence oil market dynamics and pricing [4][5] - The oil market is undergoing a transformation from resource power to rule power, with the US shale oil revolution diminishing the influence of traditional oil-producing countries [6] Oil Price Trends - On October 17, international oil prices saw a slight increase, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil settling at $57.54 per barrel, up by $0.08, and Brent crude oil at $61.29 per barrel, up by $0.23 [1] - Despite the recent uptick, oil prices have been generally declining due to trade tensions and concerns over economic slowdown affecting energy demand [2][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The EIA reported a significant increase in US crude oil inventories by 3.5 million barrels, reaching 423.8 million barrels, which exceeded analyst expectations of a 288,000-barrel increase [1] - US crude oil production has reached a record high of 13.636 million barrels per day, contributing to the oversupply situation [1][3] Geopolitical Implications - The planned US-Russia summit may temporarily suppress the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices if it leads to a de-escalation of the Ukraine conflict [4] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the pressure on India to halt Russian oil purchases, could lead to a reconfiguration of global oil trade flows [4][6] Market Structure Changes - The IEA's forecast indicates a shift in the oil market, with non-OPEC supply growth driven by US shale oil and OPEC's strategy to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November [3] - The current energy market is characterized by a rebalancing of military, energy, and monetary dimensions, as described by the soft power theory [5][6]

邓正红软实力表示，贸易紧张局势升级削弱石油需求，同时国际能源署（IEA）上调对原油过剩规模的预测，石油软实力承压下行，周二（10月14日）国际 油价走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油11月期货结算价每桶跌0.79美元至58.70美元，跌幅1.33%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油12月 期货结算价每桶跌0.93美元至62.39美元，跌幅1.47%。国际能源署警告2026年将出现巨大供应过剩，且全球两大经济体美国和中国的贸易紧张局势持续。随 着欧佩克联盟产油国及其竞争对手提高产量，而需求持续疲软，全球石油市场明年可能面临高达每日400万桶的供应过剩。 分析认为，美中紧张局势将对原油构成压力，如果紧张局势持续升温，美国经济可能面临新的问题。随着贸易紧张局势影响市场情绪，避险情绪已经占据主 导，而国际能源署的报告也偏空。道达尔能源首席执行官帕特里克•潘彦磊（Patrick Pouyanne）周二在伦敦的一场会议间隙表示："当油价处于每桶60美元 时，我们将看到页岩油行业开始放缓。我们预计从2026年年中起，非欧佩克供应将显著下降，几乎不再增长，届时欧佩克将重新掌控市场。" 邓正红软实力理论提出"规则先于 ...