Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 25, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The copper market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, lower inventory levels, and the weakening of the US dollar index. Negative factors are the uncertainty of tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and the Fed maintaining high - interest rates [4][5][6] Detailed Summaries by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,640 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 8.56%, and the historical percentile is 6.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, the strategy is to short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2508C80000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, the strategy is to long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Copper Market Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 78,640 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 400 yuan/ton (0.51%), and the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract had no change. The LME copper 3M contract was at 9,664 US dollars/ton, down 30.5 US dollars (-0.31%), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.96, down 0.1 (-1.24%) [6] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper was at 78,415 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (0.11%); Shanghai Wumaotong was at 78,420 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (0.1%); Guangdong Nanchu was at 78,430 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (0.13%); Yangtze Non - ferrous was at 78,580 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (0.13%). The spot premiums of major markets all declined [7] Refined - Scrap Copper Spread - The current refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) was 1,019.57 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (10.87%); the reasonable spread was 1,483.6 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.07%). The price advantage was - 464.03 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan (-17.58%) [9] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts totaled 22,425 tons, down 3,103 tons (-12.16%); LME copper inventory totaled 94,675 tons, down 1,200 tons (-1.25%); COMEX copper inventory totaled 203,335 tons, up 7,289 tons (3.72%) [12][14][16] Import Profit and Processing Fees - The copper import profit was - 2,522.29 yuan/ton, down 1,315.91 yuan (109.08%); the copper concentrate TC was - 43.8 US dollars/ton, with no change [17]

南华期货铜风险管理报告 2025年4月2日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 近20交易日收盘最大值 | 近20交易日收盘最小值 | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 80430 | 82000 | 77510 | 13.59% | 53.1% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 source： 利多因素： 利空因素： 1. 溢价仍存，精废价差少许偏高。 1. 供给端偏紧，铜矿现货TC负值，冶炼厂减产压力增加。 2. 美关税政策影响现货供给，拉高COMEX铜价，同时影响沪铜。 3. 下游接受程度增加。 2. 下游尚未完全消化目前价格。 3. 黄金价格潜在的回调风险。 铜期货盘面数据（日度） | | 单位 | 最新价 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力 | 元/吨 | 80430 | 0 | 0% | | 沪铜连一 | 元/吨 | 80430 | ...