铜产业风险管理日报 2025/09/17 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 80880 | 73000-80000 | 8.40% | 6.3% | 利空因素： source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2511C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | ...

Report Date and Team - Report date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 80,940 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3] - Current volatility: 8.41%, and the historical percentile of current volatility is 6.3% [3] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops: - Sell 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton [3] - Sell 25% of CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [3] Raw Material Management - For low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases: - Buy 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoint - Copper price strength recently comes from lower - than - expected US inflation data boosting rate - cut expectations. Last week's US CPI and PPI data were within expectations, increasing rate - cut expectations. In the short term, copper price may stay around 81,000 yuan/ton. The impact of monetary policy on copper price may decrease. Fundamentally, the situation of weak supply and demand may continue. The supply - side tightness cannot be resolved in the short term, and demand remains weak. Overall, the copper price will be in a volatile state [4] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The US reaches a tariff policy agreement with other countries [5] - Increased rate - cut expectations lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting non - ferrous metal valuations [5] - The lower support level rises [5] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy is unstable [6] - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies [8] - US copper tariff policy adjustments cause extremely high COMEX inventories [8] Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 80,940 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 80,940 | - 120 | - 0.15% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 80,900 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 10,189 | 124.5 | 1.24% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.04 | - 0.03 | - 0.37% | [7] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 80,940 | 185 | 0.23% | | Shanghai Wumaohui | yuan/ton | 80,960 | - 30 | - 0.04% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 80,920 | - 10 | - 0.01% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 81,070 | - 10 | - 0.01% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | yuan/ton | 80 | - 5 | - 5.88% | | Shanghai Wumaohui Premium | yuan/ton | 70 | 30 | 75% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | yuan/ton | 95 | 25 | 35.71% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | yuan/ton | 125 | 35 | 38.89% | [12] Copper Scrap Premium Data | Premium Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current scrap premium (tax - included) | yuan/ton | 2,063.83 | 118.62 | 6.1% | | Reasonable scrap premium (tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,510 | 2.25 | 0.15% | | Price advantage (tax - included) | yuan/ton | 553.83 | 116.37 | 26.6% | | Current scrap premium (tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,800 | 125 | 1.87% | | Reasonable scrap premium (tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,321.4 | 15.61 | 0.25% | | Price advantage (tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 478.6 | 109.39 | 29.63% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 30,643 | 5,083 | 19.89% | | Total international copper warehouse receipts | tons | 11,473 | 4,000 | 53.53% | | SHFE copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai | tons | 1,658 | 77 | 4.87% | | Total bonded SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total tax - paid SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 30,643 | 5,083 | 19.89% | [21] London Metal Exchange (LME) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME copper inventory | tons | 152,625 | - 1,325 | - 0.86% | | LME copper inventory in Europe | tons | 22,575 | - 50 | - 0.22% | | LME copper inventory in Asia | tons | 130,050 | - 1,275 | - 0.97% | | LME copper inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts | tons | 135,450 | 2,225 | 1.67% | | Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts | tons | 17,175 | - 3,550 | - 17.13% | [23] COMEX | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX copper inventory | tons | 311,847 | 6,068 | 1.98% | | Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts | tons | 149,213 | 779 | 0.83% | | Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts | tons | 162,634 | 136 | 0.08% | [24] Copper Import Profit and Processing Data | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper import profit and loss | yuan/ton | - 138.53 | - 121.84 | 730.02% | | Copper concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 41.4 | 0 | 0% | [25]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Analyst: Xiao Yufei [3] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core View - Copper prices rose in the overnight session on Wednesday due to the lower - than - expected US PPI data. Investors expect inflation data to further decline, which removes obstacles to the Fed's interest rate cuts and increases the probability of rate cuts, thus pushing up copper prices. The US inflation data on Thursday night met expectations, validating the PPI data. In the short term, with a tight supply side, copper prices face significant resistance at 79,000 yuan per ton, and the 20 - day moving average may provide support, with prices expected to stabilize above 80,000 yuan per ton [4] Content Summary by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 80,130 yuan per ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The current volatility is 7.44%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 3.5% [3] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, the strategy is to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when volatility is relatively stable [3] Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, the strategy is to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 7,8000 yuan per ton [3] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies; increased rate - cut expectations led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; and the lower support level has been raised [5] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are unstable; global demand has decreased due to tariff policies; and the US copper tariff policy adjustment has led to an extremely high COMEX inventory [6] Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 80,130 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 80,130 | 340 | 0.43% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 80,100 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 10,057 | 45 | 0.45% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.11 | - 0.02 | - 0.25% | [7] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Market | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 80,175 | 430 | 0.54% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | Yuan/ton | 80,140 | 415 | 0.52% | | Guangdong Nanchu | Yuan/ton | 80,120 | 380 | 0.48% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 80,270 | 390 | 0.49% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 85 | 25 | 41.67% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium | Yuan/ton | 40 | 15 | 60% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | Yuan/ton | 60 | 15 | 33.33% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 100 | 5 | 5.26% | [13] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,628.51 | - 60 | - 3.55% | | Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,498.2 | - 0.6 | - 0.04% | | Price advantage (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 130.31 | - 59.4 | - 31.31% | | Current refined - scrap spread (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,320 | - 60 | - 0.94% | | Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,239.51 | - 4.16 | - 0.07% | | Price advantage (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 80.49 | - 55.84 | - 40.96% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,028 | 902 | 4.72% | | Total international copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 5,419 | 1,001 | 22.66% | | SHFE copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai | Tons | 1,530 | 0 | 0% | | Total bonded SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total tax - paid SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,028 | 902 | 4.72% | [21] London Metal Exchange (LME) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME copper inventory | Tons | 154,175 | - 875 | - 0.56% | | LME copper inventory in Europe | Tons | 22,675 | 0 | 0% | | LME copper inventory in Asia | Tons | 16,500 | - 115,875 | - 87.54% | | LME copper inventory in North America | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts | Tons | 133,325 | 0 | 0% | | Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,850 | - 875 | - 4.03% | [23] COMEX | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX copper inventory | Tons | 309,834 | 7,090 | 2.34% | | Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts | Tons | 147,589 | - 3,239 | 1.09% | | Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts | Tons | 162,245 | - 458 | - 0.28% | [24] Copper Import Profit and Processing Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper import profit and loss | Yuan/ton | - 104.48 | - 109.58 | - 2148.63% | | Copper concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 40.5 | 0 | 0% | [25]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The copper price's rise and fall on Wednesday were closely related to the US economy. The unusual simultaneous rise of copper, gold, the US dollar index, and crude oil at night, along with a significant decline in US stocks, and a sharp increase in long - term bond yields in Europe and the US, led to an over - rise. The copper price fell after the opening on Wednesday. Considering the relatively tight supply and the US economic pressure stimulating the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the copper price may remain strong in the short term [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 79,770 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.61%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 4.1% [3]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory and concern about price increases, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Liduo Factors**: The US reaching a tariff - policy agreement with other countries, an increase in interest - rate cut expectations leading to a decline in the US dollar index and boosting non - ferrous metal valuations, and a rise in the lower support level [5][7]. - **Lidkong Factors**: Fluctuations in tariff policies, a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies, and an extremely high COMEX inventory caused by the US copper tariff - policy adjustment [6][7]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,770 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 79,770 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan (- 0.42%); the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 79,680 yuan/ton, with no change; the LME copper 3M is 9,891.5 US dollars/ton, down 82.5 US dollars (- 0.83%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.14, down 0.02 (- 0.25%) [6][8]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaomao, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 80,190 yuan/ton, 80,125 yuan/ton, 80,000 yuan/ton, and 80,230 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline. The spot premiums also decreased [9]. Copper Refined - Scrap Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,585.74 yuan/ton, down 177.24 yuan (- 10.05%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,499.9 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan (- 0.26%); the price advantage (tax - included) is 85.84 yuan/ton, down 173.34 yuan (- 66.88%). Similar declines are seen in the non - tax - included data [13]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 19,829 tons, up 358 tons (1.84%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 5,322 tons, down 100 tons (- 1.84%) [15]. - **Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 158,375 tons, down 200 tons (- 0.13%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 302,744 tons, up 28,977 tons (10.58%) [17][18]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 47.85 yuan/ton, up 5.33 yuan (- 10.02%); the copper concentrate TC is - 40.6 US dollars/ton, with no change [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices' rise and fall on Wednesday were closely related to the US economy. The unusual simultaneous rise of copper, gold, the US dollar index, and crude oil at night, along with a significant drop in US stocks and a sharp increase in European and American long - term bond yields, led to an over - rise, and the price fell during the daytime. Considering tight supply and the US economic pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, copper prices may remain strong in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 80,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.39%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 3.3% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main - contract futures at around 78,000 yuan/ton [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Agreement on tariff policies, increased interest - rate cut expectations leading to a lower US dollar index and higher non - ferrous metal valuations, and a rising lower support level [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Uncertain tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [5]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 80,110 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 0.56% to 80,110 yuan/ton; the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract was at 80,010 yuan/ton with no change; the LME Copper 3M was at 9,974 dollars/ton, down 0.39% [4]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous were 80,520 yuan/ton, 80,435 yuan/ton, 80,280 yuan/ton, and 80,580 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.45%, 0.41%, 0.39%, and 0.44% [7]. Copper Scrap and Refined Copper Spread - The current含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,762.98 yuan/ton, down 4.81%; the reasonable含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,503.8 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [11]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 19,471 tons, down 0.15%; the total International Copper warehouse receipts are 5,422 tons, down 3.13% [14]. - **Inventory**: The LME copper inventory is 158,575 tons, down 0.13%; the COMEX copper inventory is 284,400 tons, up 4.52% [16][17]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 53.18 yuan/ton, down 116.83%; the copper concentrate TC is - 40.6 dollars/ton, down 1.62% [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rise in copper prices on Monday was unexpected. Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on Friday was considered dovish by the market, leading to a significant decline in the US dollar index and boosting the valuation of the non - ferrous metals sector. The strong performance of the domestic stock market on Monday also had a certain positive impact on the entire commodity sector. However, the downstream still needs time to accept high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,690 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan/ton [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **L利多 Factors**: The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies; increased expectations of interest rate cuts led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; the lower support level has risen [4]. - **利空 Factors**: Tariff policies are inconsistent; global demand has decreased due to tariff policies; the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy has led to an extremely high COMEX inventory [5][6]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 79,690 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 1,040 yuan/ton, a 1.32% increase; the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract had no change; the LME Copper 3M contract rose 74.5 dollars/ton, a 0.77% increase; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.18, a 0.24% decrease [6]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 Copper, Shanghai Wumaoy, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - Ferrous were 79,395 yuan/ton, 79,360 yuan/ton, 79,300 yuan/ton, and 79,490 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.72%, 0.68%, 0.7%, and 0.68%. The spot premiums of these four decreased to varying degrees [11]. Copper Scrap Spread - The current含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,551.28 yuan/ton, a 43.1% increase; the reasonable含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,495.3 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase; the price advantage decreased by 113.84%. The current不含税 refined - scrap spread is 6,230 yuan/ton, an 8.35% increase; the reasonable不含税 refined - scrap spread is 6,219.38 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase; the price advantage decreased by 102.52% [15]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons to 23,747 tons, a 1.66% decrease; the total international copper warehouse receipts decreased by 227 tons to 5,898 tons, a 3.71% decrease [19]. - **Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory decreased by 375 tons to 155,975 tons, a 0.24% decrease; the total COMEX copper inventory increased by 3,430 tons to 272,500 tons, a 1.27% increase [21][22]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 49.05 yuan/ton, a 131.95% decrease; the copper concentrate TC is - 41.3 dollars/ton with no change [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices continued to fluctuate on Tuesday and are expected to remain volatile in the short term. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton has been raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices, while the strong support of the US dollar index exerts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [3]. - There are both利多 and利空 factors for copper prices.利多 factors include reaching a tariff agreement, a decline in the US dollar index due to increased interest - rate cut expectations, and the upward shift of the support level.利空 factors include tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and an extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,890 yuan per ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts around 82,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of CU2510C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. - For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts around 77,000 yuan per ton [2]. Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 78,890 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 78,870 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 78,850 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,684.5 | - 67.5 | - 0.69% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.21 | 0.03 | 0.37% | [6] Copper Spot Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 79,100 | - 180 | - 0.23% | | Shanghai Wumaotong | Yuan/ton | 79,050 | - 230 | - 0.29% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve | Yuan/ton | 78,970 | - 180 | - 0.23% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 79,220 | - 210 | - 0.26% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 195 | - 30 | - 13.33% | | Shanghai Wumaotong Premium | Yuan/ton | 130 | - 40 | - 23.53% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve Premium | Yuan/ton | 155 | - 45 | - 22.5% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 185 | - 5 | - 2.63% | [12] Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,049.89 | 36.38 | 3.59% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,491.35 | - 0.7 | - 0.05% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | - 441.46 | 37.08 | - 7.75% | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 5,735 | 30 | 0.53% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,191.97 | - 4.86 | - 0.08% | | Price Advantage (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | - 456.97 | 34.86 | - 7.09% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts total 25,498 tons (unchanged), and International Copper warehouse receipts total 8,780 tons, a decrease of 5,571 tons (- 38.82%). - LME copper inventory totals 155,150 tons, a decrease of 450 tons (- 0.29%). - COMEX copper inventory totals 269,943 tons, an increase of 4,054 tons (1.52%) [21][23][24]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is 332.39 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.25 yuan (0.99%). The copper concentrate TC is - 37.67 US dollars per ton, unchanged [25].

Report Overview - The report is the Copper Risk Management Daily Report of Nanhua Futures, dated August 19, 2025, prepared by Nanhua's non-ferrous metals research team [1] Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The slight decline of copper prices on Monday was a bit unexpected, possibly related to the decline in the valuation of the entire commodity market. The stock market's unexpected strength on Monday did not drive the futures market. In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate, or slightly strengthen. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting may have limited impact on copper prices [3] Summary by Directory Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management Suggestions - The latest copper price is 78,950 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] - For inventory management (high finished product inventory, worried about price decline), it is recommended to short 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2510C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable. For raw material management (low raw material inventory, worried about price increase), it is recommended to long 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely to increase prices**: The US reaches an agreement on tariff policies with other countries; the increase in interest rate cut expectations leads to a decline in the US dollar index, pushing up the valuation of non-ferrous metals; the support level is raised [4][5] - **Likely to decrease prices**: The tariff policy fluctuates; global demand decreases due to tariff policies; the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy leads to an extremely high COMEX inventory [5][7] Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures data**: The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 78,950 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous one contract decreased by 150 yuan/ton (-0.19%), and the London copper 3M contract decreased by 8 US dollars/ton (-0.08%). The Shanghai-London ratio is 8.18, a decrease of 0.02 (-0.24%) [6] - **Spot data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Nonferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumei, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Nonferrous are 79,280 yuan/ton, 79,280 yuan/ton, 79,150 yuan/ton, and 79,430 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.13%, 0.14%, 0.18%, and 0.16% [13] Copper Scrap Price Difference - The current scrap price difference (tax-included) is 1,013.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan (-7.74%); the reasonable scrap price difference (tax-included) is 1,492.05 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85 yuan (-0.06%) [15] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - **Warehouse receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 25,498 tons, an increase of 938 tons (3.82%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 14,351 tons, an increase of 6,929 tons (93.36%) [19] - **Inventories**: The total LME copper inventory is 155,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons (-0.13%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 269,070 tons, an increase of 3,874 tons (1.46%) [22][23] Copper Import Profit and Processing Fees - The copper import profit is 329.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 184.22 yuan (127.12%); the copper concentrate TC is -37.67 US dollars/ton, with no change [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices rose slightly during the week and then fell, which was basically in line with expectations. Macroeconomic conditions remained stable, and the US retail sales data for July met expectations. The El Teniente copper mine in Chile restarted after a week of repairs, having a limited impact on copper prices. In the coming week, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate and may be slightly stronger. The lower support level for copper prices has been raised from 77,000 yuan per ton to 78,000 yuan per ton. The release of the Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting are expected to have a limited impact on copper prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 79,060 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan and sell 25% of the CU2510C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US reaches an agreement on tariff policies with other countries - Increased expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals - The lower support level for copper prices is raised [4][5] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy causes an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5][7] Copper Futures and Spot Market Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,060 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 79,060 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan (0.14%); the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 79,040 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the LME copper 3M is 9,760 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars (-0.17%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.2, up 0.06 (0.74%) [6] Spot Data - The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 79,180 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan (-0.32%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 79,170 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan (-0.37%); Guangdong Southern Reserve is 79,010 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan (-0.48%); Yangtze Non - Ferrous is 79,300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan (-0.38%) [13] Copper Scrap Price Difference - The current tax - included scrap price difference is 1,098.51 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (-2.66%); the reasonable tax - included scrap price difference is 1,492.9 yuan/ton, down 0.3 yuan (-0.02%); the tax - included price advantage is - 394.39 yuan/ton, down 29.7 yuan (8.14%) [17] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Warehouse Receipts - The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 24,560 tons, up 126 tons (0.52%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 7,422 tons, with no change [21] Inventory - The total LME copper inventory is 155,800 tons, down 50 tons (-0.03%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 267,195 tons, up 3,055 tons (1.16%) [24][25] Copper Import Profit and Processing Data - The copper import profit is 144.92 yuan/ton, up 100.37 yuan (225.3%); the copper concentrate TC is - 37.67 US dollars/ton, up 0.33 US dollars (-0.87%) [26]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 15, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices declined slightly on Thursday due to the stabilization of the US dollar index and the decline of the domestic stock market, which lowered the valuation of commodities. However, the medium - term upward trend of copper prices has emerged. The recent US inflation data is favorable for the Fed to cut interest rates, which lowers the US dollar index and boosts the valuation of the entire non - ferrous metals sector. Downstream terminals are hesitant about the negative demand feedback in August caused by US tariffs, and believe that the current price has basically fulfilled the previous expectations. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The change in the copper term structure from B to C indicates that this round of price increase is supported by the structure and may be more solid [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,950 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] 3.2 Copper Risk Management Suggestions 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2510C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2] 3.2.2 Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Copper Prices 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reach an agreement on tariff policies; increased expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; the lower support level is raised [4] 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent; global demand decreases due to tariff policies; the adjustment of US copper tariff policies leads to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5] 3.4 Copper Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Copper Futures Data (Daily) | Futures Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 78,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 78,950 | - 430 | - 0.54% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 78,920 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,777 | 0 | 0% | [4] 3.4.2 Copper Spot Data (Daily) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 79,435 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | Yuan/ton | 79,465 | 50 | 0.06% | | Guangdong Southern Storage | Yuan/ton | 79,390 | 120 | 0.15% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 79,600 | 90 | 0.11% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | 210 | 10 | 5% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | 135 | 0 | 0% | | Guangdong Southern Storage Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | 175 | 20 | 12.9% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | 170 | 20 | 13.33% | [8] 3.5 Copper Refined - Scrap Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,128.51 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 53.62 yuan/ton and a daily change rate of - 4.54%. The reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,493.2 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 1.6 yuan/ton and a daily change rate of - 0.11%. The price advantage (tax - included) is - 364.69 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 52.02 yuan/ton and a daily change rate of 16.64%. Similar data is also provided for the non - tax - included situation [11] 3.6 Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories 3.6.1 Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Copper Warehouse Receipts (Daily) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 24,434 | 1,634 | 7.17% | | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 7,422 | 0 | 0% | | SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai | Tons | 2,504 | 0 | 0% | | Total Bonded SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total Tax - paid SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 24,434 | 1,634 | 7.17% | [13] 3.6.2 LME Copper Inventory (Daily) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | Tons | 155,850 | - 25 | - 0.02% | | LME Copper Inventory in Europe | Tons | 24,900 | - 475 | - 1.87% | | LME Copper Inventory in Asia | Tons | 130,950 | 450 | 0.34% | | LME Copper Inventory in North America | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 144,800 | 475 | 0.33% | | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 11,050 | - 500 | - 4.33% | [15] 3.6.3 COMEX Copper Inventory (Daily) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | Tons | 266,804 | 3,508 | 1.33% | | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 124,862 | 1,269 | - 1.99% | | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 141,942 | 2,547 | 1.83% | [17] 3.7 Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is 44.55 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 119.85 yuan/ton and a daily change rate of - 159.16%. The copper concentrate TC is - 38 US dollars/ton, with no daily change [18]