Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices continued to fluctuate on Tuesday and are expected to remain volatile in the short term. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton has been raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices, while the strong support of the US dollar index exerts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [3]. - There are both利多 and利空 factors for copper prices.利多 factors include reaching a tariff agreement, a decline in the US dollar index due to increased interest - rate cut expectations, and the upward shift of the support level.利空 factors include tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and an extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,890 yuan per ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts around 82,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of CU2510C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. - For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts around 77,000 yuan per ton [2]. Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 78,890 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 78,870 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 78,850 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,684.5 | - 67.5 | - 0.69% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.21 | 0.03 | 0.37% | [6] Copper Spot Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 79,100 | - 180 | - 0.23% | | Shanghai Wumaotong | Yuan/ton | 79,050 | - 230 | - 0.29% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve | Yuan/ton | 78,970 | - 180 | - 0.23% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 79,220 | - 210 | - 0.26% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 195 | - 30 | - 13.33% | | Shanghai Wumaotong Premium | Yuan/ton | 130 | - 40 | - 23.53% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve Premium | Yuan/ton | 155 | - 45 | - 22.5% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 185 | - 5 | - 2.63% | [12] Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,049.89 | 36.38 | 3.59% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,491.35 | - 0.7 | - 0.05% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | - 441.46 | 37.08 | - 7.75% | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 5,735 | 30 | 0.53% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,191.97 | - 4.86 | - 0.08% | | Price Advantage (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | - 456.97 | 34.86 | - 7.09% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts total 25,498 tons (unchanged), and International Copper warehouse receipts total 8,780 tons, a decrease of 5,571 tons (- 38.82%). - LME copper inventory totals 155,150 tons, a decrease of 450 tons (- 0.29%). - COMEX copper inventory totals 269,943 tons, an increase of 4,054 tons (1.52%) [21][23][24]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is 332.39 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.25 yuan (0.99%). The copper concentrate TC is - 37.67 US dollars per ton, unchanged [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices rose slightly during the week and then fell, which was basically in line with expectations. Macroeconomic conditions remained stable, and the US retail sales data for July met expectations. The El Teniente copper mine in Chile restarted after a week of repairs, having a limited impact on copper prices. In the coming week, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate and may be slightly stronger. The lower support level for copper prices has been raised from 77,000 yuan per ton to 78,000 yuan per ton. The release of the Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting are expected to have a limited impact on copper prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 79,060 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan and sell 25% of the CU2510C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US reaches an agreement on tariff policies with other countries - Increased expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals - The lower support level for copper prices is raised [4][5] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy causes an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5][7] Copper Futures and Spot Market Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,060 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 79,060 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan (0.14%); the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 79,040 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the LME copper 3M is 9,760 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars (-0.17%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.2, up 0.06 (0.74%) [6] Spot Data - The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 79,180 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan (-0.32%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 79,170 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan (-0.37%); Guangdong Southern Reserve is 79,010 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan (-0.48%); Yangtze Non - Ferrous is 79,300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan (-0.38%) [13] Copper Scrap Price Difference - The current tax - included scrap price difference is 1,098.51 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (-2.66%); the reasonable tax - included scrap price difference is 1,492.9 yuan/ton, down 0.3 yuan (-0.02%); the tax - included price advantage is - 394.39 yuan/ton, down 29.7 yuan (8.14%) [17] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Warehouse Receipts - The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 24,560 tons, up 126 tons (0.52%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 7,422 tons, with no change [21] Inventory - The total LME copper inventory is 155,800 tons, down 50 tons (-0.03%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 267,195 tons, up 3,055 tons (1.16%) [24][25] Copper Import Profit and Processing Data - The copper import profit is 144.92 yuan/ton, up 100.37 yuan (225.3%); the copper concentrate TC is - 37.67 US dollars/ton, up 0.33 US dollars (-0.87%) [26]

source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2510C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 买入 | 75% | 77000附近 | | | | | - | - | - | - | - | 南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年8月14日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | - ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - Copper prices have been mainly fluctuating recently. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized. In the short term, it's hard to see LME copper prices continuously higher than COMEX copper prices. However, there are still undercurrents in the spot market and inventory. The sharp decline led by COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets, and investors should be wary of the negative impact of weak copper demand [3] Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,460 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - When finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it's recommended to short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - When raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it's recommended to long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US and other countries have reached an agreement on tariff policies - The US dollar index has declined due to employment data - There is obvious support at the lower level [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand has decreased due to tariff policies - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy has led to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5][6] Copper Market Data Futures Market - Shanghai Copper main contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan, 0.23% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract: 78,440 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - LME 3M copper: 9,670.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars, - 0.04% daily change - Shanghai - London ratio: 8.15, unchanged, 0% daily change [6] Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 78,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, 0.19% daily change - Shanghai Wumaomao: 78,465 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan, 0.17% daily change - Guangdong Southern Reserve: 78,330 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan, 0.18% daily change - Yangtze Non - ferrous: 78,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan, 0.13% daily change [7] Refined - Scrap Spread - Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 660.43 yuan/ton, down 173.61 yuan, - 20.82% daily change - Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 1,483.2 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan, - 0.19% daily change - Price advantage (tax - included): - 822.77 yuan/ton, down 170.81 yuan, 26.2% daily change [9] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts: total 20,145 tons, down 201 tons, - 0.99% daily change - LME copper inventory: total 156,000 tons, down 125 tons, - 0.08% daily change - COMEX copper inventory: total 263,296 tons, up 5,381 tons, 2.09% weekly change [13][15][18] Import and Processing - Copper import profit and loss: - 141.8 yuan/ton, up 120.22 yuan, - 45.88% daily change - Copper concentrate TC: - 41 US dollars/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change [19]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core View - Copper prices were slightly stronger on Monday and Tuesday, mainly a correction of the previous decline, and fell slightly again on Wednesday, which is related to the poor US ISM non-manufacturing data. The spread between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized, and it is difficult to see the expectation that LME copper prices will remain higher than COMEX copper prices in the short term. The oversold situation in COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets. Investors should still be wary of the adverse effects of weak copper demand [3]. Key Points by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,280 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies; the US dollar index declined due to employment data; there is obvious support below [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policies are inconsistent; global demand has decreased due to tariff policies; the US adjustment of copper tariff policies has led to an extremely inflated COMEX inventory [4][5]. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 78,280 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous - 1 contract decreased by 300 yuan/ton (-0.38%), and the Shanghai copper continuous - 3 contract had no change. The LME copper 3M contract is at 9,674 US dollars/ton, up 39.5 US dollars (0.41%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15 with no change [4]. Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 78,350 yuan/ton, 78,330 yuan/ton, 78,190 yuan/ton, and 78,500 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline. The spot premiums of these regions also decreased [6]. Copper Spread and Inventory Data Spread Data - The current refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) is 660.43 yuan/ton, down 173.61 yuan (-20.82%); the reasonable refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) is 1,483.2 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan (-0.19%) [8]. Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)**: The total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 20,346 tons, up 1,579 tons (8.41%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons with no change [12]. - **LME**: The total LME copper inventory is 156,125 tons, up 2,275 tons (1.48%); the registered warehouse receipts are 145,200 tons, up 3,350 tons (2.36%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 10,925 tons, down 1,075 tons (-8.96%) [14]. - **COMEX**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 263,104 tons, up 7,156 tons (2.8%); the registered warehouse receipts are 123,343 tons, up 13,890 tons (9.89%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 139,761 tons, down 11,176 tons (-7.4%) [16]. Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 141.8 yuan/ton, up 120.22 yuan (-45.88%); the copper concentrate TC is - 41 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar (-2.38%) [17].

Report Basics - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - Copper prices were slightly stronger on Monday and Tuesday, mainly a correction of the previous decline. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper is basically stable, and it's hard to see LME copper price exceeding COMEX copper price in the short - term. However, there are still undercurrents in the spot market and inventory. The short - term oversold situation of COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets. Investors should be vigilant about the negative impact of weak copper demand [3] Detailed Summaries Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,580 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 22.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive**: Agreement on tariff policies between the US and other countries, decline of the US dollar index due to employment data, and obvious lower support [4] - **Likely Negative**: Fluctuations in tariff policies, reduction of global demand due to tariff policies, and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5] Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures**: The latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 78,580 yuan/ton with no daily change; Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 78,580 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.32%); Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 78,560 yuan/ton with no daily change; LME copper 3M is 9,634.5 US dollars/ton, down 74 US dollars (- 0.76%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15, down 0.01 (- 0.12%) [4] - **Spot**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 78,615 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan (0.25%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 78,630 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan (0.36%); Guangdong Nanchu is 78,460 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan (0.37%); Yangtze Non - Ferrous is 78,790 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan (0.36%) [6] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 834.04 yuan/ton, up 53.61 yuan (6.87%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,486 yuan/ton, up 1.6 yuan (0.11%); the price advantage (tax - included) is - 651.96 yuan/ton, up 52.01 yuan (- 7.39%) [8] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 18,767 tons, down 1,581 tons (- 7.77%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons with no change [12] - **LME**: The total LME copper inventory is 153,850 tons, up 14,275 tons (10.23%); the registered warehouse receipts are 141,850 tons, up 14,350 tons (11.25%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 12,000 tons, down 75 tons (- 0.62%) [14] - **COMEX**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 262,190 tons, up 8,759 tons (3.46%); the registered warehouse receipts are 112,243 tons, up 2,790 tons (0%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 149,947 tons, up 1,010 tons (0.68%) [16] Copper Import and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 262.02 yuan/ton, down 113.2 yuan (76.07%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42 US dollars/ton with no change [17]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 4, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The decline in copper prices during the week was mainly due to the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy. Trump announced a 50% import tariff on copper tubes, pipe fittings, and other semi - finished copper products from this Friday, and extended it to copper - intensive finished products. However, core upstream products were excluded. The price of SHFE copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and weak downstream demand is expected to emerge this week. The price difference between COMEX copper and LME, SHFE copper will fluctuate and is expected to balance in the next 2 trading days. The high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, but the short - term US market cannot digest it, which affects the price difference between LME and COMEX [3] Key Points from Different Sections Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 78,400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to sell 75% of SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of call options (CU2509C82000) when volatility is relatively stable. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory, it is recommended to buy 75% of SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Readjustment of the US tariff policy [4] - Decline of the US dollar index due to employment data [6] - Obvious downward support [6] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies [6] - Decrease in global demand due to tariff policies [6] - Excessively high COMEX inventory caused by the US copper tariff policy adjustment [6] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 78,400 yuan/ton with no daily change. SHFE copper continuous - first contract is 78,400 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan (0.46%), and SHFE copper continuous - third contract is 78,330 yuan/ton with no daily change. The price of LME copper 3M is 9,633 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars (0.27%), and the SHFE - LME ratio is 8.21, up 0.06 (0.74%) [2][5][7] Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 78,330 yuan/ton, 78,325 yuan/ton, 78,160 yuan/ton, and 78,460 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.3%, 0.27%, 0.31%, and 0.28%. The changes in the corresponding spot premium/discount also vary [9] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 805.43 yuan/ton, down 38.61 yuan (- 4.57%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1484.65 yuan/ton, down 1.45 yuan (- 0.1%). Similar changes are seen in the non - tax - included spreads [12] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Warehouse Receipts - The total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 20,349 tons, up 727 tons (3.71%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons, down 1,760 tons (- 53.12%) [15] Inventories - The total LME copper inventory is 141,750 tons, up 3,550 tons (2.57%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 259,681 tons, up 11,046 tons (4.44%) [17][20] Copper Import Profit and Processing Fees - The copper import profit is - 249.88 yuan/ton, down 87.93 yuan (54.29%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars (- 1.18%) [21]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - In the short term, there are still fluctuations in the price spreads among COMEX copper, LME copper, and SHFE copper, and the market needs 1 - 2 trading days to determine the reasonable range of the spreads. The extremely high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, and the quantity of imported copper in transit and in the fourth quarter in the US may be significantly affected. The price of SHFE copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and its price trend still depends on global macro - market policies and expected changes. Global tariff policies' impact on demand may cast a shadow over copper prices [3] Group 3: Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,040 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Group 4: Copper Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2509C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower LME inventory levels, and the US dollar index hovering at a low level [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, over - increase in the anti - involution event, and extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX due to US copper tariff policy adjustments [5][7] Group 6: Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 78,040 yuan/ton with no daily change; SHFE copper continuous - one is 78,040 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan (-1.13%); SHFE copper continuous - three is 78,010 yuan/ton with no daily change; LME 3M copper is 9,803 US dollars/ton, up 40.5 US dollars (0.41%); the SHFE - LME ratio is 8.15, up 0.01 (0.12%) [6] Spot Data - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 78,565 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan (-0.91%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 78,985 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan (-0.15%); Guangdong Southern Reserve is 78,890 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-0.15%); Yangtze Non - ferrous is 79,120 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (-0.19%) [8] Group 7: Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Warehouse Receipt Data - The total SHFE copper warehouse receipt is 18,083 tons, up 251 tons (1.41%); the total international copper warehouse receipt is 3,313 tons, down 1,354 tons (-29.01%) [14] Inventory Data - The total LME copper inventory is 127,625 tons, up 225 tons (0.18%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 253,431 tons, up 9,650 tons (3.96%) [16][18] Group 8: Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 161.95 yuan/ton, up 151.48 yuan (-48.33%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42.75 US dollars/ton with no daily change [19]

南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年7月30日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 78840 | 73000-80000 | 11.64% | 22.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2509C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 18, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The copper market's fundamentals remain stable. There are both利多 and利空 factors.利多 factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies and a decrease in LME inventory levels, while利空 factors involve the volatility of tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [3][4][5] Detailed Summary by Section Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 77,840 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 9.99%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 13.8% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 77,840 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract is 77,850 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-0.15%); the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract is 77,790 yuan/ton with no change; the LME Copper 3M is 9,637 dollars/ton, down 20.5 dollars (-0.21%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15, up 0.02 (0.25%) [7] - **Spot Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 78,060 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan (0.08%); Shanghai Wumao is 78,040 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (-0.08%); Guangdong Nanchu is 77,990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (-0.05%); Yangtze Non - ferrous is 78,120 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan (-0.09%) [9] Copper Inventory Data - **SHFE Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 50,242 tons, up 109 tons (0.22%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 10,236 tons with no change [15] - **LME Copper Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 122,150 tons, up 1,150 tons (0.95%); the European inventory is 31,150 tons, down 150 tons (-0.48%); the Asian inventory is 89,850 tons, up 10,675 tons (13.48%); the North American inventory is 0 tons [17] - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 239,435 tons, up 10,781 tons (4.71%); the registered warehouse receipts are 107,011 tons, down 6,846 tons (-1%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 132,424 tons, up 2,256 tons (1.73%) [19] Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 1.55 yuan/ton, up 219.72 yuan (-99.3%); the copper concentrate TC is - 43.17 dollars/ton, up 0.08 dollars (-0.18%) [20]