Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disparity in valuation between Chinese banks and their international counterparts, emphasizing that the low valuations of Chinese banks do not align with their profitability and market contributions [2][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Context - China's economic development over the past 40 years has been remarkable, with a unique political and economic system that influences capital market pricing [2][3]. - The pricing of bonds in China follows a risk premium principle, with government bonds having the lowest interest rates due to their high credit quality [3]. Group 2: Bank Valuation Analysis - From 2010 to 2023, the profit contribution of the banking sector to A-share listed companies has consistently exceeded 39%, yet their market capitalization share has decreased from 15.0% to 8.7% [3]. - In 2024, the price-to-book (PB) ratio for major Chinese banks is 0.56, while for U.S. banks it is 1.4, indicating a significant valuation gap [4]. - The average PB ratio for global banks is 1.37, whereas A-shares and H-shares of Chinese banks are at 0.62 and 0.40, respectively, which is less than half of the global average [5]. Group 3: Market Perception and Mispricing - The market perceives low valuations for A-share listed banks due to expectations of declining asset growth, profitability, and concerns over risk management [6]. - The true reason for the low valuations is attributed to a denial of China's political and economic system, leading to a mispricing of bank stocks over the past decade [6]. - The article argues that the conditions for a valuation recovery of bank stocks are maturing, with stable loan growth and a potential shift in government policy [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements from Nanjing Bank and other banks regarding the triggering of conditional redemption clauses for convertible bonds indicate a significant trend in the banking sector, driven by the recovery of bank stock valuations in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Triggering of Redemption Clauses - Nanjing Bank announced that its "Nanjing Convertible Bond" has triggered the conditional redemption clause, with the stock price exceeding 130% of the conversion price for 15 out of 19 trading days [2]. - Other banks, including Hangzhou Bank and Suzhou Bank, have also triggered similar redemption clauses for their convertible bonds this year [2][3]. - The trend of triggering redemption clauses is attributed to the strong performance of bank stocks, which have been bolstered by a focus on absolute returns and low volatility strategies attracting long-term capital [3]. Group 2: Supply Constraints in the Market - The supply of new convertible bonds is expected to remain low due to stringent regulatory requirements and the financial health of banks, with many banks currently trading below their net asset value [5]. - The low willingness of bondholders to convert their bonds into equity further complicates the situation, making forced redemption a crucial mechanism for banks to enhance their core Tier 1 capital [4][5]. - As a result, the market for bank convertible bonds is likely to experience a slowdown in issuance and a reduction in overall scale, while existing bonds may attract significant investor interest due to their scarcity [5].

大金融政策和业绩展望 20250520 摘要 • 资本市场增量资金确定性增强，主要来自中长期资金入市，如保险资金增 配权益市场和央行互换便利工具扩容试点，为权益市场带来 1,400 亿增量 资金，IPO 政策变化值得关注。 • 非银行金融机构受益于交易量改善，去年四季度至今年一季度业绩明显提 升，全年 ROE 预计维持高位，但同比增速或将下滑，高质量发展优先于增 长，稳定息差和风险控制至关重要。 • 券商 PB 处于中位数水平，估值上行需等待市场修复和政策支持；保险行 业估值修复空间更大，成本下降和收益率恢复是关键，推荐优质权重股及 红筹股，如人保财险、江苏金租等。 • 现房销售拉长房企现金流回笼时间，降低周转率和 IRR，增加资金占用， 压制净利率，中小项目受影响尤为显著，土地价款和税收延期支付等配套 政策或可缓解冲击。 • 全国现房住宅销售占比显著增加，2024 年达 33%，部分原因是小城市市 场弱势和保障性住房约束，现有 4 亿平方米现房库存压力巨大，优质房企 或受益于行业资金壁垒提高。 • 招商银行作为沪深 300 权重股，受益于主动型基金配置比例重构，高股息 优势使其内生增长稳定，无需再融资，股息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant inflow of medium to long-term funds into the banking sector in China during the first quarter of 2024, driven by increased investments from Central Huijin, social security funds, and insurance companies, leading to a positive performance in bank stocks [1][4]. Group 1: Central Huijin's Investment Activities - Central Huijin increased its holdings in multiple ETFs, which brought additional passive funds into the banking sector, particularly benefiting high-dividend bank stocks [1][2]. - As of the end of Q1 2024, Central Huijin held significant positions in eight bank stocks, including major state-owned banks and several national joint-stock banks, with notable increases in ETF holdings [2]. Group 2: Social Security Fund's Holdings - By the end of Q1 2024, the social security fund had significant holdings in five bank stocks, with an overall increase in the number of shares held compared to the beginning of the year, particularly in Changshu Bank [3]. Group 3: Insurance Companies' Activities - Insurance companies have shown strong interest in bank stocks, with several firms collectively acquiring stakes in five listed banks, including Agricultural Bank of China and China Merchants Bank, indicating a robust inflow of funds into the banking sector [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The valuation recovery of bank stocks is influenced by macroeconomic policies and asset quality improvements, with expectations for continued interest in high-dividend strategies in the short term [5].