Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2505 of Shanghai nickel opened at 123,570 yuan/ton and closed at 124,630 yuan/ton, a change of 0.48% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 101,917 lots, and the open interest was 67,940 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, closing with a small yang - yin line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning into a green column, indicating a short - term downward trend. There was a top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line before the holiday. The spot market of electrolytic nickel had sluggish trading recently. Attention should be paid to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was about 450 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands all increased slightly. After the holiday, the purchasing intention of downstream customers recovered, and merchants also had a certain intention to replenish stocks. The overall performance of refined nickel spot trading was okay, and the premium was basically stable compared to before the holiday, showing a slow downward trend recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,125 (- 183.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 200,082 (- 336) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Variety Strategy - Recently, the premium of refined nickel spot has been slowly declining, and the support of the premium has weakened. Coupled with the top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line, it is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is around 122,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. For single - side operations, it is mainly range - bound; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,680 yuan/ton and closed at 12,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,113 lots, and the open interest was 89,353 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel mainly fluctuated throughout the day, showing a slightly stronger trend in the afternoon, closing with a small yang line. The trading volume of the 06 contract increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly, and there was still short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted prices unchanged compared to the previous trading day. Affected by the weak market, market confidence was still low. Some downstream enterprises made low - price restocking actions, and most spot merchants maintained a wait - and - see attitude. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was flat compared to the previous trading day, and the transaction price was mostly at 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 415 - 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 9.50 yuan/nickel point to 959.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Due to the continuous decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has been continuously weakening. It may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. The single - side operation is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

可能凯恩斯的意思是极力把行情导向一个上升中继，形成快速反弹之后的浅回调，这样就演变成强势攻击姿态，然后再次点燃市场情绪。这种可能是存在 的，在30~60分钟级别，看下图： 就看图中A和B两个震荡区间的构造过程，如果以这种横盘方式延续几天，那么后续在这个级别的向上突破大概率要发生。多数震荡要来回三次，目前已 经在做第二次返回了。 科创综指和深证综指也都是这样的结构。上证则略有不同，有一个15分钟级别的顶背离，当然顶背离本身是指向回调的： 所以，总结来看，在凯恩斯的努力下，有可能当前的回调幅度不会很大，映射到强势股中，就是小幅缩量回撤的3C构造，导入基底右侧。 当然，这样是最好的安排。 情绪指标10周期进入沸腾区域，按照极点多反转的规律，暂时仍然很难继续上行，能维持窄幅震荡格局已经是比较好的结果了。 只能说短期情绪维护得很好，全靠凯恩斯护盘，而哈耶克的自然力量明显在冷却。 怎么说呢，广义来看，其实干涉也是自然力量的一部分，对于一个混沌系统，边界到处是干扰因子，至于是何种因子来干扰，是蝴蝶来扇一下翅膀，还是 麻雀来扇一下翅膀，其实并无差别。 今天看样子是继续缩量，银行在扛，大多数个股继续回调。 ...