Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expectation of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates starting in September due to a weak labor market and reduced inflation risks [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - Nomura's economists predict a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, followed by additional cuts in December and March of the following year [1] - The median analyst expectation is also for a 25 basis point cut within the next three months, although there is disagreement among economists regarding the timing of these cuts [1] Group 2: Market Indicators - The current USD index is at 97.86, with a slight increase of 0.02% from an opening price of 97.80 [1] - The 20-period moving average (97.5513) and the 50-period moving average (97.7919) are converging, indicating short-term bullish sentiment, but the price has not effectively broken through the resistance at the 50-period moving average [1] - The RSI indicator is at 71.91, indicating an overbought condition, and a potential "divergence" pattern is forming, where the price reaches a new high while the RSI does not [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the stock market, particularly focusing on the Shanghai Composite Index and its key resistance levels, indicating a bullish market trend [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Status**: The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded quickly around the 3,550 level, indicating a bullish main upward trend, with key support levels at the 20-day moving average and 3,550 [1][2][4]. 2. **Bull-Bear Boundary**: The 120-day moving average serves as the bull-bear boundary, with the 20-day and 60-day moving averages indicating different market states [5]. 3. **Market Divergence**: Despite the overall market rally, there is internal divergence, as the Shanghai 50 index has broken its upward trend line, suggesting potential weakness in upward momentum [6][7]. 4. **Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors experienced a broad rally, but there was no clear leading sector. The pharmaceutical sector faced a pullback due to the decline in Hong Kong's innovative drug stocks [8][9]. 5. **Psychological Resistance**: The index faces psychological resistance at 3,674, with uncertainties arising from the expiration of the U.S. tariff suspension period [12][13]. 6. **Volume Concerns**: The recent market rebound has been accompanied by a significant reduction in trading volume, indicating insufficient selling pressure and potential risks of a market top [14][15]. 7. **Short-term Strategy**: Short-term trading strategies should be cautious, as there is a high probability of adjustment after reaching 3,674, with a need to monitor new market hotspots for further upward movement [16][17]. 8. **Long-term Outlook**: The market is expected to exhibit a systematic slow bull pattern, supported by overall market sentiment, capital flow, policy supply, and international conditions [19]. 9. **Sector Focus**: Attention should be given to cyclical recovery and value rebound sectors such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture, as well as technology sectors like communications and pharmaceuticals [29]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The market is currently at a critical juncture, with potential shifts in investment styles from growth to value, influenced by previous strong performances of certain sectors [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the current environment, investors are advised to focus on individual stocks rather than indices, particularly in sectors showing potential for recovery [27]. - **Quantitative Models**: Utilizing quantitative models to identify stocks with favorable characteristics can be an effective strategy in the current market [26][30]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions and future outlook.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **A-share market** and the **Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical sector**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Adjustments** The recent pullback in the Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical sector significantly impacts market sentiment, indicating potential overall market adjustment risks [1][2][8] 2. **Currency Impact on A-shares** There is a notable negative correlation between the offshore RMB exchange rate and A-share performance. Recent RMB depreciation has been a key factor suppressing A-shares [1][3][10] 3. **Technical Analysis of Shanghai Composite Index** The Shanghai Composite Index faces mid-line resistance at 3,700-3,800 points and 4,000-4,100 points, with technical indicators suggesting a potential daily level adjustment until mid-August [1][5][11] 4. **Market Drivers** Current market trends are primarily driven by DDM model factors, including increased risk appetite, declining risk-free rates, and ample liquidity, despite economic recovery not meeting expectations [1][6] 5. **Short-term Support Levels** Key short-term support levels include gaps at 3,536 and 3,517 points, with the 60-day moving average serving as critical support if adjustments are significant [1][7][19] 6. **Sector Performance** The pharmaceutical, communication, and computer sectors remain advantageous, while cyclical resource stocks are expected to improve in the long term despite short-term weakness [1][12][23] 7. **Market Emotion and Future Trends** Despite recent index pullbacks, market sentiment has not significantly deteriorated, indicating potential investment opportunities in specific growth sectors [1][13] 8. **Current State of Construction and Real Estate Sectors** The construction, real estate, and building materials sectors are currently event-driven rather than driven by industry recovery, suggesting a lack of sustainability in recent gains [1][14] 9. **Transportation and Oil & Gas Sector Performance** Recent underperformance in the transportation and oil & gas sectors indicates that even dividend assets struggle to maintain stability in the current market environment [1][15] 10. **Future Market Predictions** The market is expected to undergo adjustments over the next 10 trading days, with potential support at the 3,536-point level. A rebound could lead to a larger top structure by late August [1][16][17][19] 11. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** It is advised to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with potential opportunities for mid-line accumulation near the 60-day moving average [1][20][19] 12. **Current Market Style and Sector Themes** The market is at a critical threshold for style shifts, with growth and value styles showing signs of potential switching. Close monitoring of momentum changes is necessary [1][21][22] 13. **Industry Scoring and Recommendations** Despite potential style shifts, sectors like pharmaceuticals, communications, and computing remain top-rated. Cyclical resource stocks are still recommended due to improved expectations [1][23] 14. **Thematic Investment Opportunities** Several thematic indices, such as the Traditional Chinese Medicine Index and AI Machine Index, are highlighted as having strong performance potential, particularly in the current market environment [1][24] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The correlation between the performance of the Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical sector and the A-share market indicates that market movements are heavily influenced by sentiment rather than fundamental changes [1][9] - The potential for a significant market adjustment if the upward trend is not maintained, particularly in light of external pressures such as US inflation data and cross-border capital flows [1][18]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market downturn is attributed to various factors, including the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates and the perceived underperformance of a significant meeting's outcomes, rather than a direct reaction to these events [1][3][5]. Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 21129.67, with a trading volume of 340.89 billion and a slight increase of 0.15% [2]. - The A-share market experienced a decline in the afternoon, despite an initial recovery in the morning, indicating volatility influenced by external news and market sentiment [5][7]. Sector Analysis - The artificial intelligence sector, particularly the ChiNext AI ETF (159363), showed resilience, with an early morning increase of 4.21%, ultimately closing with a gain of 0.81% despite the overall market decline [8][10]. - The innovative drug sector also performed well, although not as strongly as the AI sector, indicating a rotation of interest between these two sectors [10]. Technical Indicators - Technical analysts noted a "top divergence" risk as the market index reached new highs without corresponding MACD indicators, suggesting potential for a correction [7]. - The market's recent performance has led to discussions about the sustainability of the upward trend, with some analysts suggesting that the current indicators may not reflect long-term trends [7]. Government Policy - The State Council's recent approval of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative aims to promote the commercialization and application of AI across various sectors, which could provide a supportive backdrop for the AI industry [10].

Group 1 - The current market is assumed to be breaking out of a consolidation phase, indicating the start of a major upward trend, with sentiment indicators returning from a low to a warmer zone [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has already achieved a breakout and is in an attacking posture [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index has also achieved a breakout and is in an attacking posture [2] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index has just reached the upper boundary of its consolidation structure, indicating an attacking posture [3] - However, a divergence in momentum has been observed on a 5-minute scale, suggesting that short-term gains may be limited [4] Group 3 - The overall market situation aligns with previous analyses, indicating that the pullback will not be too deep and that the market is at the end of the first phase of a bull market, which typically lasts 8 to 10 months [6] - It is noted that before entering a major upward phase, the sentiment indicators may drop into a cold zone but not necessarily to freezing levels, as seen in previous bull markets in 2014 and 2019 [6][7] Group 4 - A common characteristic before a major upward trend is a narrow, rhythmic, and self-disciplined fluctuation or consolidation structure, typically requiring at least three touches (3T) [8] - Currently, the market is only at 2T in its consolidation structure, suggesting a potential short-term pullback for confirmation before a breakout [8] Group 5 - There is caution against excessive excitement in the media regarding the market, as recent gains in brokerage stocks are limited to a few mid-cap firms, indicating a possible high-level distribution rather than a broad-based rally [8] - The real surge is observed in financial software stocks, driven by policy announcements, which typically attract speculative trading [8] - The proportion of stocks with gains exceeding 5% is not high, indicating a long-tail effect where only a small number of stocks are performing exceptionally well [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the KDJ indicator as a tool for identifying turning points in the stock market, likening it to a "speed sensor" for stock prices, helping investors understand whether the market is accelerating towards a peak or preparing for a rebound [1]. Group 1: KDJ Indicator Overview - KDJ consists of three lines: K (short-term speed), D (medium-term speed), and J (extreme speed), which together monitor stock price momentum [3]. - The combination of these three lines is essential for identifying market turning points [3]. Group 2: Practical Application of KDJ - **Golden Cross and Death Cross**: A golden cross occurs when the K line crosses above the D line, signaling a potential upward movement, while a death cross occurs when the K line crosses below the D line, indicating a possible downward correction. For example, a tech stock saw its price rise from 15 to 30 after a golden cross, then drop back to 20 following a death cross [4]. - **Overbought and Oversold Conditions**: The J line indicates extreme conditions; a J value above 100 signals overbought conditions, while below 0 indicates oversold conditions. For instance, a liquor stock had a J value of 120 before a 15% correction, and a J value of -10 before an 8% rebound [5]. - **Divergence**: A top divergence occurs when the stock price reaches a new high but the KDJ does not, suggesting potential selling pressure. Conversely, a bottom divergence indicates a possible reversal when the stock price hits a new low but the KDJ does not [8]. Group 3: Trading Strategies and Tips - KDJ is best used for short-term fluctuations, particularly in a sideways market, where its signals are more reliable [8]. - In a strong trend, KDJ may remain in overbought or oversold territory, and traders should consider volume and market conditions before making decisions [8]. - A mnemonic for using KDJ effectively is: "Golden cross looks at volume, death cross looks at support, avoid hard resistance in overbought/oversold conditions, and turn quickly when divergence appears" [8].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 123,200 yuan/ton and closed at 122,870 yuan/ton, a change of -0.83% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,167 lots, and the open interest was 63,519 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly in the morning and accelerated its decline near the mid - day close, closing with a small negative line. The trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest increased. The daily MACD's red bar area did not significantly expand and was close to turning green. There might be a downward trend in the short - term. The 60 - minute line showed a top divergence near 126,400 before May Day and a bottom divergence near 123,000 after May Day. Pay attention to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 and the short - term support level of 122,000 - 123,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was lowered by 425 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands also decreased. The refined nickel spot trading was generally weak, with no recovery in downstream purchasing willingness and merchants reducing sales volume. The premium and discount increased slightly compared to the previous trading day and remained stable recently. Jinchuan nickel premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,150 yuan/ton, imported nickel premium remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton, and nickel bean premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 23,142 (-329.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 202,098 (90) tons [2]. Strategy - The trading of refined nickel spot has been relatively sluggish recently, and the support of premium and discount has weakened. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is estimated to be around 122,000 - 123,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. For single - side trading, focus on range operations; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 12,970 yuan/ton and closed at 12,840 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 133,035 lots, and the open interest was 128,677 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated weakly throughout the day, closing with a negative line. The trading volume of the 07 contract increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased substantially. The daily MACD's red bar area failed to expand further, increasing the possibility of a short - term correction. Continue to pay attention to the resistance level around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market lowered their morning quotations by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The market trading was average, and market confidence remained low. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was basically flat compared to the previous trading day, mostly at 950 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory including tax). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,175 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,175 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 360 - 610 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 946.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Recently, due to the decline in nickel - iron raw material prices, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has continued to weaken. It may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is estimated to be 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. The single - side trading strategy is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 19, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 123,660 yuan/ton and closed at 123,850 yuan/ton, a -0.67% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 116,247 lots, and the open interest was 57,470 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai Nickel oscillated at a high level in the morning and declined from the high in the afternoon, closing with a small positive line. The trading volume of the 06 main contract shrank compared with the previous trading day, while the open interest increased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning into a green column, indicating a possible short - term downward trend. There was a top divergence near 126,400 before the May Day holiday and a bottom divergence near 123,000 after the May Day holiday on the 60 - minute line. Pay attention to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 and the short - term support level of 122,000 - 123,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan Nickel was lowered by 1,175 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands also decreased. The refined nickel spot trading was generally average, and the premium and discount increased slightly compared with the previous trading day and remained stable recently. The premium of Jinchuan Nickel remained unchanged at 2,100 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipt volume was 23,471 (-30.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 202,008 (6786) tons [2]. Strategy - The spot trading of refined nickel has been relatively sluggish recently, and the support of premium and discount has weakened. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is estimated to be around 122,000 - 123,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is still to sell on rallies for hedging. For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 19, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 13,005 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 89,358 lots, and the open interest was 125,759 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel followed the nickel futures to oscillate, closing with a doji negative line. The trading volume of the 07 contract shrank compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest was almost the same. The red column area of the daily MACD failed to expand further, increasing the possibility of a short - term correction. Continue to pay attention to the resistance level around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted the same as the previous trading day in the morning, but the market trading support was insufficient, and market confidence was still low. The weakening of the afternoon session led most spot merchants to lower the price by 50 yuan/ton to promote sales. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was basically the same as the previous trading day, and the transaction price of a steel mill in South China was mostly at 940 yuan/nickel (delivered at the factory including tax). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,275 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,225 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 345 - 545 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron including tax changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 944.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Recently, due to the decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has continued to weaken. It may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is estimated to be 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy is still to sell on rallies for hedging. For single - side trading, it is neutral; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2505 of Shanghai nickel opened at 123,570 yuan/ton and closed at 124,630 yuan/ton, a change of 0.48% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 101,917 lots, and the open interest was 67,940 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, closing with a small yang - yin line. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly and was close to turning into a green column, indicating a short - term downward trend. There was a top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line before the holiday. The spot market of electrolytic nickel had sluggish trading recently. Attention should be paid to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was about 450 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands all increased slightly. After the holiday, the purchasing intention of downstream customers recovered, and merchants also had a certain intention to replenish stocks. The overall performance of refined nickel spot trading was okay, and the premium was basically stable compared to before the holiday, showing a slow downward trend recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,125 (- 183.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 200,082 (- 336) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Variety Strategy - Recently, the premium of refined nickel spot has been slowly declining, and the support of the premium has weakened. Coupled with the top divergence phenomenon at around 126,400 on the 60 - minute line, it is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is around 122,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. For single - side operations, it is mainly range - bound; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 6, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,680 yuan/ton and closed at 12,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,113 lots, and the open interest was 89,353 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel mainly fluctuated throughout the day, showing a slightly stronger trend in the afternoon, closing with a small yang line. The trading volume of the 06 contract increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased. In terms of volume and energy, the red column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand significantly, and there was still short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market quoted prices unchanged compared to the previous trading day. Affected by the weak market, market confidence was still low. Some downstream enterprises made low - price restocking actions, and most spot merchants maintained a wait - and - see attitude. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was flat compared to the previous trading day, and the transaction price was mostly at 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 415 - 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 9.50 yuan/nickel point to 959.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Due to the continuous decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has been continuously weakening. It may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term idea is still to sell hedging on rallies. The single - side operation is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

可能凯恩斯的意思是极力把行情导向一个上升中继，形成快速反弹之后的浅回调，这样就演变成强势攻击姿态，然后再次点燃市场情绪。这种可能是存在 的，在30~60分钟级别，看下图： 就看图中A和B两个震荡区间的构造过程，如果以这种横盘方式延续几天，那么后续在这个级别的向上突破大概率要发生。多数震荡要来回三次，目前已 经在做第二次返回了。 科创综指和深证综指也都是这样的结构。上证则略有不同，有一个15分钟级别的顶背离，当然顶背离本身是指向回调的： 所以，总结来看，在凯恩斯的努力下，有可能当前的回调幅度不会很大，映射到强势股中，就是小幅缩量回撤的3C构造，导入基底右侧。 当然，这样是最好的安排。 情绪指标10周期进入沸腾区域，按照极点多反转的规律，暂时仍然很难继续上行，能维持窄幅震荡格局已经是比较好的结果了。 只能说短期情绪维护得很好，全靠凯恩斯护盘，而哈耶克的自然力量明显在冷却。 怎么说呢，广义来看，其实干涉也是自然力量的一部分，对于一个混沌系统，边界到处是干扰因子，至于是何种因子来干扰，是蝴蝶来扇一下翅膀，还是 麻雀来扇一下翅膀，其实并无差别。 今天看样子是继续缩量，银行在扛，大多数个股继续回调。 ...