投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | 2025/11/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 较前值变动 收盘价 | | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.42 | -10.66 | DR007 | 1.51 | -1.08 | | | GC001 | 1.63 | -6.50 | GC007 | 1.51 | -5.00 | | नि | | | | | | | | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | | 1.40 | -0.30 | | 1 રેતે | 0.70 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | | | 5年期国债 | | | | | 10年期国债 | 1.81 | 0.40 | 10年期美债 | 4.12 ...

有色金属日报 2025-11-20 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 隔夜美股企稳，铜价回升，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 0.98%至 10802 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 86190 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 17375 至 157875 吨，增量主要来自亚洲仓库，注销仓单比例反弹，Cash/3M 维持贴水。国内上期所仓单减少 0.3 至 5.8 万吨，上海地区现货升水期货上调至 85 元/吨，市场成 交情绪延续较好。广东地区库存环比减少，现货升水期货 35 元/吨，持货商挺价意愿强。国内铜现 货进口亏损缩至 300 元 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251116 [1] Report Core View - The macro - situation is short - term bearish, the fundamentals are acceptable, and the copper market is in a volatile state [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Copper spot trading improved slightly, and the premium/discount remained stable overall [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium/discount strengthened compared to the previous period [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.17/ton week - on - week to - $42.21/ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 18,200 tons week - on - week to 647,900 tons [19] - The change in the refined scrap price difference was limited week - on - week [22] - The estimated output of electrolytic copper in China in November will decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [25] - From January to October in China, the import volume of copper ore and its concentrates was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [27] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased week - on - week, while the bonded area inventory increased [28] - LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, mainly due to the callback of the previous week's market and the concentrated release of new orders [32] - From November 1st to 9th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 5% year - on - year [34] - In November, the production schedules of domestic component enterprises varied, and the overall production schedule is expected to decline month - on - month [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In October in China, the new social financing was 810 billion yuan, the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - In October in the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for eight consecutive months, while the service PMI reached an eight - month high [43] - Fed officials took a hawkish stance, and the probability of an interest rate cut in December decreased [47]

Market Data Summary - DRO01 closed at 1.51 with a 2.52 bp increase, DR007 at 1.51 with a 1.33 bp increase, GC001 at 1.64 with a 43.50 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.53 with a 5.00 bp increase [4] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.58, LPR 5 - year at 3.50, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.56 bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.57 with a - 0.88 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a - 0.05 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.13 with a 2.00 bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted 4038 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 1175 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2863 billion yuan [4] - This week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 783 billion, 1175 billion, 655 billion, 928 billion, and 1417 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote a reasonable recovery of prices and keep social financing conditions relatively loose [4] Stock Index Market - CSI 300 closed at 4652, down 0.91%; SSE 50 at 3035, down 0.63%; CSI 500 at 7292, down 0.71%; and CSI 1000 at 7541, down 0.30% [6] - IF volume was 110400 with a 3.4% increase, IH volume 50142 with a 9.2% increase, IC volume 112484 with an 8.4% decrease, and IM volume 186082 with a 4.3% decrease [6] - IF open interest was 263184 with a 1.9% decrease, IH open interest 94744 with a 2.0% decrease, IC open interest 241256 with a 3.2% decrease, and IM open interest 354095 with a 0.2% decrease [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19936 billion yuan, a decrease of 1809 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Photovoltaic equipment, chemical raw materials, non - metallic materials, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical commerce sectors led the gains, while insurance, energy metals, aerospace, electronic components, and software development sectors led the losses [6] Market Outlook - The stock index closed down in a volatile manner. The current macro - level is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, lacking a core driving force [7] - Market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment. New driving factors such as overseas liquidity release or domestic fundamental improvement will be key for the market to rise [7] Stock Index Futures Basis - IF basis was 9.39% for the current - month contract, 5.24% for the next - month contract, 3.15% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.32% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH basis was 1.24% for the current - month contract, 0.52% for the next - month contract, 0.47% for the current - quarter contract, and 0.66% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC basis was 24.73% for the current - month contract, 15.62% for the next - month contract, 11.17% for the current - quarter contract, and 10.87% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM basis was 31.07% for the current - month contract, 19.16% for the next - month contract, 14.03% for the current - quarter contract, and 13.00% for the next - quarter contract [8]

Report Summary 1. Core View - In the short term, the macro - level is in a relative policy window period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward mainline, trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate and are in an accumulation phase. The US government's continuous shutdown risks increase the adjustment pressure on US stocks and impact the domestic equity market, but the impact is mainly at the A - share opening stage, and the intraday trend can be repaired by domestic liquidity and market sentiment, providing space for short - term stock index operations. In the long - term, the market is expected to have further upward space, but the pace will be gradual. Key factors such as overseas liquidity release or substantial improvement in domestic fundamentals will drive the market upward [6]. 2. Data Summary 2.1 Currency Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Value (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.33 | 1.55 | | DR007 | 1.41 | - 1.24 | | GC001 | 1.20 | - 12.00 | | GC007 | 1.47 | - 0.50 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | - 0.35 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.40 | - 0.04 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.59 | 0.53 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.81 | 0.77 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.11 | 0.00 | Last week, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases in the open market. There were 2068 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1572.2 billion yuan. This week, 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 78.3 billion, 117.5 billion, 65.5 billion, 92.8 billion, and 141.7 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4]. 2.2 Stock Index Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4679 | - 0.31 | | IF Current Month | 4673 | - 0.2 | | SSE 50 | 3038 | - 0.21 | | IH Current Month | 3039 | - 0.1 | | CSI 500 | 7328 | - 0.24 | | IC Current Month | 7292 | - 0.2 | | CSI 1000 | 7542 | - 0.13 | | IM Current Month | 7493 | 0.1 | | IF Trading Volume | 86450 | - 22.4 | | IF Open Interest | 257486 | - 2.7 | | IH Trading Volume | 37804 | - 26.6 | | IH Open Interest | 90943 | - 5.5 | | IC Trading Volume | | - 19.9 | | IC Open Interest | 240492 | - 3.6 | | IM Trading Volume | 187617 | - 7.8 | | IM Open Interest | 356424 | 1.9 | Last week, the CSI 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.8, the SSE 50 rose 0.89% to 3038.3, the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.9, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.47% to 7541.9. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (5%), steel (4.4%), basic chemicals (3.5%), banks (2.8%), and comprehensive (2.6%) led the gains, while computer (- 2.5%), medicine and biology (- 2.4%), automobile (- 1.2%), food and beverage (- 0.6%), and household appliances (- 0.5%) led the losses. The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 1910.4 billion, 1753.4 billion, 1718.3 billion, 1860 billion, and 1833.1 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 260.55 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5]. 2.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount | | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | 3.77% | 3.78% | 3.13% | 3.23% | | IH Premium/Discount | - 0.45% | 0.04% | 0.34% | 0.58% | | IC Premium/Discount | 14.91% | 12.17% | 10.13% | 10.16% | | IM Premium/Discount | 19.55% | 15.71% | 12.96% | 12.36% | Note: The values in brackets are the annualized premium/discount rates (green indicates premium, red indicates discount) [7].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3951.10 with a change of -74.15 [3] - London Silver's latest price is 47.76 with a change of -1.02 [3] - London Platinum's latest price is 1580.00 with a change of -9.00 [3] - London Palladium's latest price is 1463.00 with a change of -2.00 [3] - WTI Crude's latest price is 61.05 with a change of 0.00 [3] - LME Copper's latest price is 10692.00 with a change of -220.00 [3] - US Dollar Index's latest price is 99.88 with a change of 0.00 [3] - Euro to US Dollar's latest price is 1.15 with a change of 0.00 [3] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest price is 1.31 with a change of 0.00 [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest price is 154.21 with a change of 0.00 [3] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest price is 1.82 with a change of 0.00 [3] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 15002.46 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 665.61 with a change of 6.76 [4] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1038.63 with a change of -3.15 [4] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15189.82 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1050.68 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with a change of 0.00 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The IC2512 has a discount of 90.97 points, and the IM2512 has a discount of 122.72 points, showing a bearish signal [3]. - The market should focus on the Sino - US leaders' meeting today. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, and Powell hinted that it might be the last rate cut this year. The two markets rose generally yesterday, with the ChiNext leading the way, and market hotspots rotated. The Shanghai Composite Index stood above the 4000 mark, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The margin trading balance was 2476.9 billion yuan, an increase of 12.7 billion yuan, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The IH2512 has a premium of 1.78 points, and the IF2512 has a discount of 15.24 points, showing a neutral signal [3]. - The order of performance is IH > IC > IF > IM, and IH, IF, IC, and IM are above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The long positions of IF and IC main contracts decreased, while those of IH main contracts increased, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations. After the Fourth Plenary Session, the technology sector rebounded, and the index rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index stood above the 4000 mark. Currently, it is recommended to appropriately reduce positions if there is a sharp intraday rise, and the index is expected to maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US leaders' meeting today [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Index Data**: For various futures contracts such as IH, IF, IC, and IM, detailed information including contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividends, spreads, premium/discount ratios, annualized premium/discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms is provided [4]. - **Base and Spread Charts**: Charts of the base and spread of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 500 futures are presented, showing their historical trends [6][9]. Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price changes of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, etc. are shown [12]. - **Style Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price changes of style indexes such as the 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, etc. are presented [15][19]. Market Structure - **AH Share Premium/Discount**: The historical trend of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index is shown [22]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE)**: The historical trends of the PEs of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented [24]. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: The historical trends of the PBs of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented [26]. Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Fund Inflow**: The historical trend of A - share net fund inflow and the CSI 300 index are shown [28]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The historical trends of margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index are presented [30]. - **Northbound Capital Inflow**: The historical trend of the net inflow of northbound capital is shown [32]. - **Stock Unlock**: No specific content is provided other than the title. - **Fund Cost**: The historical trends of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates are presented [38]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The historical trends of the turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented [41][44]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: No specific content is provided other than the title. Other Indicators - **Futures Index Dividend Yield and 10 - Year Treasury Yield**: The historical trends of the dividend yields of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as the 10 - year treasury yield, are presented [50]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The historical trend of the US dollar - to - Renminbi exchange rate is shown [52]. - **New Account Openings and Shanghai Composite Index Tracking**: No specific content is provided other than the title. - **Newly Established Scale Changes of Different Types of Funds**: The newly established scale changes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are presented, but no specific content is provided other than the titles [55][57][59].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4224.75 with a change of -37.20 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 54.10 with a change of 1.08 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1674.00 with a change of 26.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1575.00 with a change of 35.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 57.54 with a change of 0.08 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10522.50 with a change of -105.50 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 98.56 with a change of 0.20 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.17 with a change of -0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.34 with a change of -0.00 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest rate is 150.63 with a change of 0.20 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.75 with a change of 0.04 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 15930.06 with no change [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 920.10 with a change of -62.16 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1047.21 with a change of 12.59 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15497.40 with a change of 74.79 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1216.97 with no change [2] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of -1.00 [2] Group 3: Chart Data Source - The data in the above charts comes from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [11]

Report Summary 1. Market Data and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.03 bp change, DR007 at 1.42 with a -1.44 bp change, GC001 at 1.54 with a 19.00 bp change, and GC007 at 1.50 with a 1.00 bp change [3]. - SHBOR 3M was at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.75 bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.58 with a 0.50 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.76 with a 0.60 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.02 with a - 0.50 bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 43.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% with a net injection of 43.5 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities [3]. - This week, 1021 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 612 billion yuan and 409 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [4]. 2. Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.48% to 4606.3, SSE 50 rose 1.36% to 3001.3, CSI 500 rose 1.38% to 7294, and CSI 1000 rose 1.5% to 7483.4 [5]. - Industry sectors generally rose, with automotive, aviation, power grid equipment, and pharmaceutical sectors leading the gains, while shipping and small - metal sectors declined [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.0729 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 503.4 billion yuan or 17% from the previous day [5]. 3. Futures Contracts and Market Outlook - In the futures market, IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed price increases, but their trading volumes and open interests decreased to varying degrees [5]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies and the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC in South Korea at the end of this month [5]. - Small - and medium - cap stocks with high technology weights may face greater shocks, and risk - hedging tools such as CSI 1000 put options can be considered [5]. - The CSI 300 and SSE 50 indexes are expected to show stronger resilience, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is expected to continue [5]. 4. Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF's premium/discount rates for different contracts were 0.00%, 4.22%, 3.64%, and 2.61% respectively [5]. - IH's were 1.03%, 11.85%, 0.74%, and 0.23% [5]. - IC's were 13.23%, 39.54%, 11.84%, and 10.17% [5]. - IM's were 67.43%, 15.93%, 15.63%, and 13.23% [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The threat of Trump to impose significant additional tariffs on China is uncertain, and market sentiment needs further clarification. For copper, overseas mine production cuts and reduced domestic refined copper output may support prices. If the trade situation is a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline [2][3]. - The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations is uncertain. For aluminum, if the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the domestic aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity [5][6]. - For lead, the apparent inventory of lead ore has slightly increased, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead has decreased, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [8][9]. - For zinc, domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [10][12]. - For tin, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term [13][14]. - For nickel, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices [15][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations [19][20]. - For alumina, the short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22][24]. - For stainless steel, the market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [26][27]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [29][30] Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Trump's tariff threat causes market panic, leading to a 3.73% drop in LME copper 3M to $10374/ton and a fall in SHFE copper to 83030 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreases by 75 to 139000 tons, and domestic SHFE inventory increases by 15000 tons compared to before the holiday [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tariff threat is uncertain. From the fundamental perspective, supply tightening supports prices. If it's a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline. The operating range of SHFE copper is 82000 - 85500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is $10200 - 10700/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations causes aluminum prices to weaken. LME aluminum 3M drops 1.31% to $2746/ton, and SHFE aluminum closes at 20755 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories increase slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum billets declines [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 21100 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is $2700 - 2790/ton [6] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rises 0.12% to 17142 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rises to $2027.5/ton. Domestic social inventory decreases to 3.58 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The apparent inventory of lead ore increases slightly, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead decreases, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [9] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index falls 0.18% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S falls to $2997/ton. Domestic social inventory increases slightly to 15.02 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [11][12] Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fall due to Sino - US trade frictions. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and Indonesia cracks down on illegal mining, increasing supply concerns. The downstream new - energy vehicle and AI server industries are booming, but traditional consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries are weak. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season drives marginal improvement in consumption [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of domestic tin is 280000 - 300000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $36000 - 39000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuate and fall at night due to Sino - US trade frictions. The spot market trading is average, and the cost of nickel ore is stable. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and the price of MHP is high [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On October 10, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate is flat at 73011 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72500 - 74000 yuan, and that of industrial - grade is 71500 - 72000 yuan. The price of LC2511 contract falls 0.82% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 68800 - 73800 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 10, the alumina index falls 0.66% to 2861 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong falls to 2865 yuan/ton, and the overseas FOB price in Australia rises to $324/ton. The import window is close to closing, and the futures warehouse receipts increase [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23][24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closes at 12860 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi are stable. The raw - material prices are stable, and the social inventory decreases [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Aluminum alloy prices rise and then fall following aluminum prices. The AD2511 contract falls 0.41% to 20465 yuan/ton. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 rises slightly, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the main domestic markets decreases [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [30]