Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4456.45, with a change of -108.10 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 67.29, with a change of -5.88 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1950.00, with a change of 58.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1434.00, with a change of 41.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 94.48, with a change of 4.16 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 12201.00, with a change of -28.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 10218.98, with a change of -9.13 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 370.30, with a change of -5.79 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1052.70, with a change of 0.28 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15409.46, with a change of -104.21 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 371.99, with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1, with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, with a change of 0.00 [2] Group 3: Other Data - US Dollar Index's latest value is 99.92, with a change of 0.28 [11] - EUR/USD's latest value is 1.15, with a change of -0.00 [11] - GBP/USD's latest value is 1.33, with a change of -0.00 [11] - USD/JPY's latest value is 159.75, with a change of 0.28 [11] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 2.02, with a change of 0.00 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As of March 21, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 67.7%, lower than last week's 69.2% and last year's 76.4%, but higher than the five - year average of 66.4%. The selling pressure in Brazilian production areas continues to be released, freight rates have declined with crude oil, and the CXF premium of Brazilian soybeans has recently decreased [9]. - Brazilian shipments have resumed, alleviating concerns about delayed arrivals in China. Oil mill supply has recovered, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in April. After pre - stocking, downstream buying interest is weak, and the basis has weakened slightly [9]. - In the later period, soybean arrivals in May are sufficient, and the futures market reflects delivery pressure. South American selling pressure still needs further release, and the soybean meal futures valuation is low. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to layout long positions in distant contracts. The driving factors for later price increases include cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet [9]. - In April, domestic soybean meal inventory will be reduced. The spread between M05 and M09 may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to maintain a reverse spread [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Daily - The basis of the main soybean meal contract in Zhangjiagang on March 25 was 348, with a change of 9. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, Zhanjiang, and Fangcheng also had different values and changes. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 65, with a change of 50 [4]. 3.2 Inventory Data - Information about inventory data includes the inventory of national major oil mills' soybeans, Chinese port soybeans, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal, but specific numerical data is presented in a graphical form in the report [11][12]. 3.3开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - Information about the operation rate of national major oil mills and the soybean pressing volume is presented in a graphical form in the report, showing data from 2020 - 2026 [7][8]. 3.4 Downstream Transaction Volume - Information about the downstream transaction volume and the downstream提货量 (delivery volume) of national major oil mills is presented in a graphical form in the report, covering data from 2019 - 2026 [8]. 3.5 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 593, with a change of - 3. The futures spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is also presented in the report, along with the premium - continuous month situation and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the futures crushing profit [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound with improved supply - demand expectations, but it requires a relaxation in macro - sentiment. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 93,000 - 96,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 12,000 - 12,400 dollars/ton [2] - Aluminum prices have strong support. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 23,600 - 24,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/ton [5] - Short - term lead prices are supported, but there is a possibility of further decline. It is necessary to observe the recovery of secondary smelter operations and the sustainability of battery enterprise purchases [9] - Zinc prices are in a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the destocking situation of zinc ingot social inventory and be wary of risks caused by geopolitical conflicts and macro - policy changes [11] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 330,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 41,000 - 50,000 dollars/ton [14] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for SHFE nickel this week is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 20,000 dollars/ton [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have some support at the bottom. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 136,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [19] - For alumina, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton [22] - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 13,650 - 14,200 yuan/ton [25] - Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support [28] Group 3: Summary of Each Metal Copper - **Market Quotes**: The LME copper 3M contract fell 1.05% to 12,211 dollars/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 94,920 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 1,325 tons to 335,425 tons, while domestic social inventory decreased by over 20,000 tons [1] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although supply - demand expectations are improving, copper price recovery requires a relaxation in macro - sentiment [2] Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: The LME aluminum 3M contract fell 5.19% to 3,242 dollars/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 23,930 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 40,000 tons, and inventory changes varied in different places [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas aluminum supply is still threatened, and domestic downstream start - up rates are rising. Aluminum prices have strong support [5] Lead - **Market Quotes**: The SHFE lead index fell 1.44% to 16,415 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 39.5 dollars to 1,892 dollars/ton. Social inventory decreased by 7,500 tons [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term lead prices are supported, but there is a possibility of further decline [9] Zinc - **Market Quotes**: The SHFE zinc index fell 2.75% to 22,707 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 127 dollars to 3,090 dollars/ton. Social inventory decreased by 7,200 tons [10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are in a downward trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to destocking [11] Tin - **Market Quotes**: On March 19, the SHFE tin main contract fell 6.56% to 345,730 yuan/ton. SHFE inventory decreased by 322 tons, and LME inventory increased by 30 tons [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels [14] Nickel - **Market Quotes**: On March 19, the SHFE nickel main contract fell 2.67% to 131,550 yuan/ton. Spot premiums were stable, and nickel iron prices rose [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel supply - demand has improved, but prices are expected to fluctuate [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The MMLC index fell 6.06%. The LC2605 contract fell 5.01%. Weekly production increased by 3.2%, and inventory decreased slightly [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lithium carbonate prices have support at the bottom [19] Alumina - **Market Quotes**: On March 19, the alumina index fell 0.75% to 3,038 yuan/ton, and positions increased [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is advisable to wait and see, with a reference range for the main contract [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel main contract fell 1.18% to 13,855 yuan/ton, and positions increased. Spot prices and raw material prices changed slightly, and social inventory decreased [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The main AD2604 contract fell 2.52% to 23,000 yuan/ton. Positions decreased, and inventory changed [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support [28]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The liquidity market has been generally loose since March, with the weighted average rate of DR001 maintained around 1.32%. The central bank conducted 510 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, resulting in a net injection of 115 billion yuan after 395 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured. This week, 1765 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations [3][4]. - Yesterday, the stock index trends were divergent. The large - financial sector supported the market, while the small - and medium - cap stocks fell significantly. Due to limited incremental information from the Sino - US economic and trade representatives' meeting in Paris, the threat of a postponed visit by US President Trump to China, uncertainties in the Middle East conflict, rising crude oil prices, and increased inflation pressure and impact on global capital market liquidity, domestic small - and medium - cap stocks were dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue in a volatile pattern and may restart an upward trend as external inflation pressure eases and market risk appetite recovers. Strategically, investors can consider building long positions using the premium advantage of stock index futures in the medium - to - long - term while controlling positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Interest Rate and Bond Market - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32% with a 0.04 bp increase, DR007 at 1.43% with a 1.75 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.47% with a 3.50 bp decrease, GC007 at 1.52% with a 1.50 bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.54% with a 0.22 bp decrease, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change [3]. - **Bond Yields**: The 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.25% with a 0.75 bp decrease, the 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.56% with a 0.40 bp decrease, the 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.84% with a 0.29 bp decrease, and the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.23% with a 5.00 bp decrease [3]. Stock Index and Futures - **Stock Indexes**: The CSI 300 fell 0.73% to 4637, the SSE 50 rose 0.32% to 2964, the CSI 500 fell 2.07% to 8016, and the CSI 1000 fell 2.33% to 8020 [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: IF当月 fell 0.7% to 4629, IH当月 rose 0.3% to 2962, IC当月 fell 2.2% to 8000, and IM当月 fell 2.1% to 8014. In terms of trading volume and open interest, IF trading volume increased 17.4% to 146,045, and open interest increased 2.5% to 280,450; IH trading volume increased 14.7% to 69,141, and open interest decreased 3.2% to 106,613; IC trading volume increased 0.3% to 170,339, and open interest decreased 2.7% to 294,227; IM trading volume increased 7.7% to 235,540, and open interest increased 0.1% to 382,072 [5]. - **Futures Premium/Discount**: IF's premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 22.67%, 6.20%, 6.67%, and 6.86% respectively; IH's were 6.48%, 3.41%, 3.01%, and 3.89% respectively; IC's were 24.32%, 9.70%, 9.99%, and 9.45% respectively; IM's were 8.89%, 10.11%, 12.06%, and 11.21% respectively [7]. Stock Market Trading Volume and Sector Performance - The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 115.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed lower, with the insurance, chemical fiber, and real - estate services sectors leading the gains, and the communication equipment, electronic chemicals, components, power supply equipment, non - metallic materials, marine equipment, battery, and aerospace equipment sectors leading the losses [6].

Reporting Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The USDA March supply and demand report had no obvious highlights and its impact was neutral [4]. - Brazil's soybean harvest is currently more than half - completed, slower than the same period last year, with a sales progress of around 41.2%. Recently, the premium quotes are scarce due to large oil price changes and sellers' inability to determine freight [4]. - There is still a risk of rising shipping and fertilizer costs due to the short - term Middle East war. Brazilian beans may be delayed in arrival due to customs inspection and quarantine issues, which is beneficial for near - month and inter - month positive spreads. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of the Middle East war and changes in domestic customs policies, while being aware of the risk of price drops [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) on March 11th: in Dalian it was 332 with a decline of 55; in Tianjin it was 252 with a decline of 35; in Rizhao it was 182 with a decline of 25; in Zhangjiagang it was 182 with a decline of 45; in Dongguan it was 252 with an increase of 25; in Zhanjiang it was 232 with an increase of 5; in Fangcheng it was 212 with an increase of 5 [3]. - For rapeseed meal spot basis on March 11th: in Guangdong it was 105 with an increase of 160; in NE - d it was 14 with an increase of 63; RM5 - 9 was 10 with an increase of 50 [3]. Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 745 with a decline of 68, and the main contract spread was 588 [4]. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.8321, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 187.00 cents per bushel with an increase of 115 [4]. Inventory Data - The content presents the historical data trends of China's port soybean inventory, major oil mills' soybean inventory, major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2018 - 2026 [4]. 开机 and Pressing Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of major oil mills' soybean pressing volume, major oil mills' startup rate, downstream cargo volume, and downstream trading volume from 2019 - 2026 [4].

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a 0.09bp increase, DR007 at 1.44 with a 0.73bp decrease, GC001 at 1.48 with a 7.50bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.54 with a 2.00bp decrease [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with a 0.23bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [3] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds closed at 1.48, 1.73, and 1.98 respectively, with decreases of 1.10bp, 0.60bp, and 0.35bp; 10 - year US Treasury bonds closed at 4.12 with a 3.00bp decrease [3] - The central bank conducted 395 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 52 billion yuan [3] - This week, 2776 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1500 billion yuan of 1 - month treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Tuesday [4] Group 2: Stock Index and Futures - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rose 1.28%, 0.64%, 1.58%, and 1.78% respectively; their corresponding futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) also had varying increases [5][6] - Trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 36.2, 34.4, 23.7, and 30.5 respectively; their positions decreased by 6.3%, 4.7%, 4.1%, and 7.8% respectively [5] - The trading volume of the three - market (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing) stocks was 24170 billion yuan, a decrease of 2539 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Most industry sectors closed higher, with electronics, communication, and other sectors leading the gains, while oil, coal, and chemical sectors declined [6] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed varying degrees of premium or discount [8] Group 3: Export Data and Market Outlook - China's export volume from January to February was 20994.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.3%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 7.2% [7] - In February, the single - month export growth rate reached 36.1%, indicating the resilience of the supply chain after the Spring Festival [7] - Mechanical and electrical products were the main drivers of growth, with an export volume of 2.89 trillion yuan in the first two months, a year - on - year increase of 24.3% [7] - China's exports to the US contracted, while ASEAN and the EU became important supports for exports, accounting for over 30% in total [7] - With the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite, the stock index is expected to consolidate and resume an upward trend; long positions can be considered in the medium - to - long - term using the premium advantage of stock index futures [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the influence of Middle - East geopolitical factors, the Asia - Pacific stock markets declined further yesterday, with the South Korean Composite Index circuit - breaking and the Nikkei 225 Index falling over 3%. The stock index was weak due to market sentiment and liquidity. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on the emotional resonance of the Asia - Pacific stock markets, especially South Korea's rescue strategies, and the evolution of the Middle - East conflict. If the geopolitical situation eases, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring a good long - position layout opportunity. Referring to the incident in 2025, the market sentiment recovered quickly after a brief shock adjustment, and the stock index broke upward [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate and Bond Market - DROO1 closed at 1.27 with a 0.16bp increase; DR007 closed at 1.42 with a 3.26bp decrease; GC001 closed at 1.22 with a 4.50bp increase; GC007 closed at 1.47 with a 1.00bp decrease; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with a 0.45bp decrease; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.29 with a 1.23bp decrease; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.53 with a 1.02bp decrease; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.78 with a 0.18bp decrease; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.06 with a 1.00bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted a 405 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 4095 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal of funds on the day was 3690 billion yuan [4] - This week (March 1st - 6th), 15250 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Additionally, 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on March 6th [5] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4603 with a 1.14% decrease; the SSE 50 closed at 2974 with a 1.33% decrease; the CSI 500 closed at 8249 with a 0.39% decrease; the CSI 1000 closed at 8095 with a 0.59% decrease. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 23882 billion yuan, a decrease of 7698 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed down. Grid equipment, national defense and military industry, power equipment, and small metal sectors led the gains, while shipping ports, precious metals, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, liquor, and logistics sectors led the losses [6] - The trading volume of IF decreased by 16.0% to 139926, and the open interest increased by 0.3% to 288752; the trading volume of IH decreased by 10.0% to 71090, and the open interest increased by 0.5% to 115104; the trading volume of IC decreased by 22.3% to 203068, and the open interest decreased by 6.7% to 309828; the trading volume of IM decreased by 16.4% to 245473, and the open interest decreased by 1.8% to 394667 [6] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.76%, 4.01%, 4.64%, and 5.10% respectively; IH were 1.54%, 1.12%, 1.26%, and 2.90% respectively; IC were 8.17%, 5.71%, 7.16%, and 7.32% respectively; IM were 8.54%, 7.80%, 9.25%, and 9.31% respectively [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The positive outlook for U.S. soybean exports and crushing is bullish for the U.S. soybean market. The delayed harvest of Brazilian soybeans has shifted the selling pressure later, and the Middle - East conflict has led to an increase in freight rates, causing the premium of Brazilian soybeans to rise. However, weak downstream buying interest is expected to limit the increase in premiums [6]. - The recent rebound in the soybean meal futures market is expected to be limited under the pressure of large global supply. Later, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums and Sino - U.S. trade dynamics, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [6]. - With high inventories of soybeans and soybean meal at domestic oil mills and sufficient downstream stockpiles and weak buying interest, the spot basis of soybean meal is expected to face pressure [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basis Data - On March 3rd, the basis of soybean meal futures main contract in Dalian was 344, down 10; in Tianjin it was 284, down 10; in Rizhao it was 244, down 10. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot to the main contract in Zhangjiagang was 244, down 10; in Dongguan it was 224, down 10; in Zhanjiang it was 244, down 10; in Fangcheng it was 264, down 10. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 47, up 11 [4]. - The M5 - 9 spread was - 120, and the RM5 - 9 spread was - 59, up 6 [4]. 2. Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 644, down 20; the futures spread of the main contract was 526, down 5 [5]. 3. Premium and Exchange Rate Data - The U.S. dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.8855, and the futures crushing profit was 128 yuan/ton, up 8 [5]. 4. Inventory Data - The report presents the trends of China's port soybeans inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybeans inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory from 2020 - 2026 [5][6]. 5.开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - The report shows the trends of major domestic oil mills' operation rate, soybean pressing volume, and lagging delivery from 2020 - 2026 [6].

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 5222.30, 89.98, 2366.00, 1793.00, 67.02, and 13396.00 respectively. The price changes are 0.00, 0.00, 111.00, 24.00, 0.00, and -62.00 respectively [2]. - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 97.64, 1.18, 1.35, 156.09, and 1.74 respectively, with all changes being 0.00 [2]. Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventories of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 11207.59, 309.44, and 450.45 respectively. The change in SHFE Silver inventory is 2.84, while others remain unchanged [3]. - The latest holdings of Gold ETF and Silver ETF are 1097.90 and 16079.74 respectively, with no changes [3]. - The latest deferred - fee payment directions of SGE Silver are 1 and 2 respectively, with no changes [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the precious metals market has a negative impact on the overall market, but the relatively strong manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe provide some support. The copper market shows a tight supply of copper ore and a relatively sufficient supply of refined copper, with copper prices expected to remain range - bound at high levels during the holiday. Aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate with an upward bias due to stronger overseas supply - demand fundamentals. The lead market is currently in a weak state, and whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery manufacturers after the Spring Festival. The zinc industry is also weak, but zinc prices may rise following the non - ferrous metal sector due to positive macro - economic expectations. Tin prices are expected to trade in a wide range, and short - term operations are recommended to wait and see. Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain tight in the short term, and upstream producers may have more bargaining power. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed, and the key lies in the impact of disruptions in Guinea's mining and the alleviation of high domestic supply pressure. Stainless steel maintains a strategy of buying on dips. Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support [5][8][10][12][14][16][19][22][25][28] Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight silver and US stocks declined, causing copper prices to rise first and then fall. LME copper 3M closed down 2.9% at $12,855/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 4,550 tons to 196,650 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased slightly. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to futures, and the import of SHFE copper was at a loss of over 900 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,100 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The decline in precious metals dampens market sentiment, but the relatively strong manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe provide support. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the supply of refined copper is relatively sufficient. During the long holiday, copper prices are expected to remain range - bound at high levels. Today, the reference range for SHFE copper's main contract is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is $12,500 - 13,200/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum smelter in Mozambique is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. Precious metals and US stocks declined, causing aluminum prices to rise first and then fall. LME aluminum closed down 0.63% at $3,097/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum's weighted contract positions decreased by 16,000 to 647,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 33,000 to 201,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories increased, the processing fee for aluminum bars continued to rebound, and the market entered a holiday state. The spot in East China was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to futures, and LME aluminum inventories decreased by 2,200 tons to 484,000 tons [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. LME aluminum inventories remain at a relatively low level, and the high premium of US aluminum in the spot market provides strong support for aluminum prices. With stronger overseas supply - demand fundamentals, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias during the long holiday. Today, the reference range for SHFE aluminum's main contract is 23,200 - 23,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is $3,050 - 3,140/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed 0.29% lower at 16,705 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 120,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME lead 3S rose $8 to $1,986/ton, with a total open interest of 175,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,000 tons, and the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 233,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 16,100 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,400 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from February 9 [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years. The processing fee for lead concentrates remains at a low level. The inventory of waste batteries continues to rise, higher than in 2025. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of smelters declines seasonally. Lead ingot social inventories continue to accumulate, and the domestic industry is currently in a weak state. Current lead prices are close to the lower end of the long - term trading range, but downstream consumption is mediocre. Whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery manufacturers after the Spring Festival [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed 0.18% higher at 24,678 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 193,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME zinc 3S rose $8 to $3,424.5/ton, with a total open interest of 235,500 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,480 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 43,100 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,300 tons. The social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 138,100 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from February 9 [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory has slowed down, and the TC of zinc concentrates has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate. The operating performance of downstream enterprises is mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises have increased rapidly. The domestic zinc industry is in a weak state. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - economic sentiment. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there is still a risk of abnormal price movements in non - ferrous metals during the holiday. The strong US PMI has boosted market expectations of a recovery in consumption, which may drive zinc prices to rise following the non - ferrous metal sector [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 12, tin prices fluctuated. The main SHFE tin contract closed at 391,320 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, the upward momentum was insufficient after the two regions resumed from maintenance, and there were constraints on the scrap side and high - price wait - and - see attitudes from downstream. In the short term, supply is difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although the price decline has released some rigid procurement demand and spot trading has improved slightly, the overall price is still at a high level, and downstream restocking willingness before the festival is still not obvious, with most adopting a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on end - user industries from the overall rise in the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand is slow, and the actual support for the spot market is limited [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the second decline in precious metals prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound accordingly. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long - term, in the short term, with the marginal easing of tin ingot supply - demand and the steady increase in inventory recently, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly trade in a wide range. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $46,000 - 50,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 12, nickel prices fluctuated. The main SHFE nickel contract closed at 139,610 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the nearby contract was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron averaged 1,048 yuan/nickel point, up 0.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the second decline in precious metals and risk - asset prices, there are signs of stabilization, with short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and short - term nickel prices are expected to mainly trade in a wide range. On the evening of February 10, Tri Winarno, the Director - General of Minerals and Coal at the ESDM Ministry, revealed that the approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons, which is close to market expectations and is expected to have a limited impact on nickel prices. The reference trading range for SHFE nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contracts, it is $16,000 - 18,000/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 142,316 yuan in the evening session, up 2.30% from the previous working day. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,200 yuan (+2.29%) to 138,800 - 146,700 yuan, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.31%. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 149,420 yuan, down 0.56% from the previous day's closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. The SMM weekly inventory was 102,932 tons, down 2,531 tons (-2.4%) from the previous week, with a decrease of 1,436 tons in the upstream and 1,095 tons in the downstream and other sectors [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On Thursday, the futures market adjusted, and the Wenhua Commodity Index fell 0.22%. On the supply side, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate has decreased by about 10.7% from the peak. On the demand side, the demand expectation is strong, and the production schedule of the material sector in March is expected to increase significantly. It is expected that the short - term supply - demand tightness of domestic lithium carbonate will continue. If there is no unexpected supply recovery in the mining sector, upstream producers will have more bargaining power in the post - holiday spot market. In the future, attention should be paid to the atmosphere in the commodity market, the resumption progress of lithium mines in Jiangxi, and the changes in the tradable inventory of salt plants and traders. Today, the reference trading range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 143,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 0.29% to 2,812 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 441,800 lots, a decrease of 16,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 253 yuan/ton to the main contract [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the mining end, workers at a mine in the Boké region of Guinea have launched an indefinite strike. This region is the core area for Guinea's bauxite. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike will expand. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity situation at the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there have been more capacity maintenance recently, the overall output is still at a high level. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. The key to future price trends lies in whether the disturbances at the Guinea mining end can materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated through policies or market means. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to domestic supply - reduction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,970 yuan/ton, down 1.24% (-174) from the previous day, with an open interest of 198,500 lots, a decrease of 6,938 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in the Foshan market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in the Wuxi market remained at 14,150 yuan/ton. The Foshan basis was - 240 (-300), and the Wuxi basis was - 90 (-300). The price of Hongwang 201 in Foshan was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Hongwang annealed 430 was 7,750 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, and the recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was 9,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The high - carbon ferrochrome price in the northern main - producing area was 8,550 yuan/50 - base ton, also unchanged. The futures inventory was 55,253 tons, an increase of 762 tons from the previous day. As of February 6, social inventories increased to 914,200 tons, a 1.07% increase from the previous period, with the 300 - series inventory at 632,000 tons, a 2.49% increase [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: From the supply side, although the supply of raw materials has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents has generally slowed down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively sell goods, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with weak willingness to actively stock up. Steel mills will cut production collectively in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. The reference range for the main contract is 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The main AD2604 contract closed 0.25% higher at 22,260 yuan/ton (as of 15:00). The weighted contract positions decreased to 23,400 lots, and the trading volume was 11,200 lots, with increased trading volume. Warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 66,600 tons. The price difference between the AL2604 and AD2604 contracts was 1,430 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to the previous period. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 remained stable, and the