It does take us to our talk of the tape. Can [music] stock stage an endofear run. Let's ask the Wharton professor of finance, Jeremy Seagull.He joins us now. Professor, it's always great to talk to you. We usually do this on Fridays, which affords us the ability to size up this week and the past few weeks at that.I mean, how does this market look to you here. >> The market looks very, very solid. Um, I I'll tell you one thing, I don't think we can rely on seasonal predictions.Uh, you know, we all said, "Oh, ...

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Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, asserts that markets are currently in a bubble, primarily driven by speculative investments in AI companies like Nvidia Corp [1][2] - Dalio's bubble indicator suggests that markets are "about 80% into a bubble," comparable to levels seen during the 1929 crash and the 2000 dot-com bubble [2] Market Dynamics - Bubbles do not burst due to poor long-term company prospects but rather due to sudden systemic cash needs [3] - Investors may need to sell assets to obtain cash for expenses or obligations, leading to a liquidity crisis [3] Potential Catalysts - Traditional triggers for bubble bursts include monetary policy tightening, but wealth taxes could also serve as a catalyst by forcing asset sales among concentrated holders [4] - Such taxes could create liquidity crises that deflate valuations irrespective of the underlying fundamentals [4] Investor Behavior - Dalio differentiates between "strong hands" and "weak hands," which could influence survival during market corrections [5][6] - "Weak hands" refer to retail investors or leveraged individuals who invest heavily in concentrated positions during bullish trends, increasing the risk of forced selling [6] Wealth Concentration - The current bubble is characterized by extreme wealth concentration among a small percentage of the economy and American population, often held in leveraged positions [7] - This concentration heightens market vulnerability to catalysts that could trigger simultaneous selling [7]

Investment Strategy & Focus - The technology providers are expected to maintain strong earnings growth [1] - The industry sees opportunities in companies beyond the immediate AI technology providers, including those enabling automation and efficiency improvements in other sectors [4][6] - The market should pay attention to companies showing margin expansion [8] Key Companies & Technologies - Nvidia's CUDA software system is considered a significant asset, similar to Apple's App Store [2] - AMD and Broadcom are also developing technologies (TPUs) that present opportunities [4] - Symbiotic is identified as a company benefiting from the AI trend through automation solutions [6] Market & Economic Conditions - The discussion about a potential bubble is considered overdone, and the current situation differs from the tech boom of the late 1990s due to current growth stocks experiencing approximately 20% average growth [10][11][15] - Capital expenditure is ramping up, indicating healthy investment in the sector [11] - There are concerns about the concentration of the market around OpenAI [14] Company-Specific Analysis (Oracle) - Oracle's debt-to-equity ratio was 427%, down from 780% year-over-year [12] - Oracle's price-to-earnings ratio is up 130% year-over-year, while debt is only up 9% [13] - Oracle's ability to shift its data-centric cloud computing focus is noted [15] Examples of AI Adoption - Walmart's 6% revenue growth, with 27% e-commerce growth, and 35% increase in delivery speeds for digital orders arriving in under 3 hours, showcases AI adoption [6] - Raytheon is utilizing AI to improve supply chain logistics [7]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant gains in quantum computing stocks, with companies like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. experiencing increases of up to 1,490% over the trailing year, yet billionaire investors are favoring Alphabet as a more stable investment in this sector [4][5][22]. Quantum Computing Industry - Quantum computing is described as a transformative technology capable of solving complex problems that classical computers cannot, with potential applications in drug development, weather forecasting, and cybersecurity [6]. - Boston Consulting Group estimates that quantum computing could generate between $450 billion to $850 billion in global economic value over the next 15 years [7]. Investment Trends - Despite the impressive performance of quantum computing stocks, billionaire investors have largely avoided these companies, preferring to invest in Alphabet, a member of the "Magnificent Seven" [5][14]. - Historical trends indicate that early-stage innovations often experience bubble bursts, as seen with the internet boom, leading to cautious investment strategies among billionaires [10][12]. Financial Metrics - The trailing-12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratios for IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. range from 130 to 2,661, indicating potential overvaluation compared to historical standards [13]. - Alphabet, on the other hand, is seen as a safer investment due to its established and profitable operating segments, including Google and YouTube, which provide substantial cash flow [15][20]. Alphabet's Position - Alphabet has a market capitalization of approximately $3,903 billion and maintains a strong position in the internet search market with a share of 89% to 93% [16][18]. - The company also has a significant presence in cloud services, with Google Cloud generating over $60 billion in annual run rate sales [19]. - With $98.5 billion in cash and equivalents, Alphabet is well-positioned to invest in quantum computing without jeopardizing its existing operations [20].

What are you seeing in the private markets in certain isolated instances that maybe reflect some anxiety that we're getting in the public markets. Well, I'm old enough that I lived through the last bubble, Caroline. And history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.Yeah. And there's definitely some rhyming going on like me. And the valuations are high and they're high early.The thing that's different is, my goodness, is there galactic level growth in these startups. The demand is amazing and it sort of start ...

Investment Platform & Community - Qualtrim is a stock analysis platform with over 11,000 paying members [1] Investment Strategy & Portfolio - The author's investment approach focuses on buying high-quality, long-term investments in world-class businesses, viewed as businesses rather than stocks [1] - The author shares his growth and dividend portfolios [1] - The author bought more Mastercard and sold Booking Holdings [1] Market Commentary - Discussion of Ray Dalio & Michael Burry's bubble talk [1] - Google stock went up 6% [1] Disclaimer & Risk Management - The content is for informational purposes only and not intended as investment recommendations; consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions [1] - The author is an amateur investor sharing his experiences and is not a professional investor [1] - Investment decisions should be based on individual income, risk tolerance, personality, timeline, and overall circumstances [1]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry has launched a Substack newsletter titled "Cassandra Unchained" to express his bearish views on artificial intelligence, drawing parallels to past market bubbles [2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Burry believes that current markets are in bubble territory similar to the late 1990s tech mania, with investors ignoring profitability concerns and funding large capital expenditures based on the assumption that AI technology will transform the economy [2][4]. - He references past comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who dismissed bubble fears by stating that AI companies are "actually profitable," which Burry sees as reminiscent of former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan's assurances about housing prices before the 2008 crisis [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context - Burry recalls his own experience during the dot-com boom when he was shorting Amazon, and he now expresses a similar bearish stance on AI leaders like Nvidia and Palantir [6]. - He highlights the historical pattern of policymakers underestimating market bubbles, suggesting that the current situation with AI is echoing past mistakes [4][6].

Industry Trend - Defense tech spending is experiencing a bubble [1] - Many defense tech start-ups are unlikely to succeed [1] Leadership Perspective - Helsing's co-CEO, Torsten Reil, acknowledges the defense tech bubble [1]