Core Insights - Newmont Corporation (NEM) achieved record free cash flows in Q2 2025, with total capital expenditures decreasing to $674 million [1][2] Financial Performance - Free cash flow surged nearly threefold year over year and increased by 42% from the prior quarter to $1.7 billion, driven by higher net cash from operating activities and lower capital investment [2][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates a year-over-year rise of 60.1% and 8.2%, respectively, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [10] Capital Expenditure Trends - Newmont anticipates higher capital spending in Q3 2025, influenced by increased cash tax payments and ongoing construction of the Yanacocha water treatment facilities [3][4] - Sustaining capital spending is expected to ramp up in the second half of 2025, particularly for projects at Tanami, Cadia, Lihir, and Red Chris [4] Industry Comparison - Barrick Mining Corporation's total attributable capital expenditures rose 14% sequentially and 3% year over year in Q2, with expectations for 2025 expenditures between $3,100 million and $3,600 million [5] - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited forecasts capital expenditures to be between $1.75 billion and $1.95 billion for 2025, up from approximately $1.66 billion in 2024 [6] Stock Performance - NEM shares have increased by 151.4% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's rise of 123.5%, largely due to a rally in gold prices [7][8] - NEM is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 16.57, which is a 3.6% premium to the industry average of 16.17X [11]

Core Viewpoint - Atmos Energy Corporation is a leading natural gas utility company in the U.S., primarily operating in Texas, focusing on delivering natural gas to various customer segments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Barclays set a price target of $172 for Atmos Energy (ATO), which is slightly below its current trading price of $174.93, indicating a more optimistic market view [2][6] - The company has raised its earnings per share (EPS) guidance to a range of $7.35 to $7.45 for the year, reflecting confidence in its financial performance and growth prospects [4][6] Group 2: Market Position and Competitors - Atmos Energy competes with other utility companies such as CenterPoint Energy and ONE Gas [1] - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $28.08 billion, with its stock price fluctuating between $174.72 and $177.01, showing significant growth from a low of $136.05 in the past year [5] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Investment Strategy - The favorable regulatory environment in Texas supports predictable cash flows, allowing Atmos Energy to invest heavily in capital programs, with 86% of its capital expenditure focused on enhancing safety and reliability [3][6] - The company's earnings are fully regulated, providing a stable revenue stream, which has been bolstered by recent legislation and customer growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - Seaport Global Securities upgraded Smurfit Westrock from Neutral to Buy, citing an attractive valuation and improved sentiment in the European containerboard market [1][2] Group 1: Upgrade and Valuation - Smurfit Westrock's stock was upgraded to Buy with a price target of $52.00, reflecting a shift in analyst sentiment [1] - The stock is currently trading at approximately 6.3 times its 2026 EBITDA forecast, which is competitive compared to the consensus estimate of about 6.2 times [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Capacity - Analysts expect sentiment regarding European containerboard pricing to improve as capacity closures increase due to weak profitability [2] - The company had previously faced caution from analysts due to its higher exposure to the European market, where new containerboard capacity was anticipated [1] Group 3: Strategic Roadmap - A potential re-rating of the stock is anticipated when the company reveals its five-year strategic roadmap in February, which will outline operational goals through 2030 [3] - The strategic plan is expected to elaborate on $400 million in synergy targets and address asset repositioning, cost reductions, and capital expenditure needs, particularly in the SBS business [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing deployment of AI technology is expected to drive revenue growth across various industries, with optimism for continued momentum into 2026 due to significant capital expenditures from companies with strong cash flows and earnings [3][4]. Group 1: AI and Market Dynamics - Companies are increasingly discussing how AI is contributing to revenue, marking a shift from previous trends [3]. - Unlike the late 1990s, the current market shows a broader participation in stock price increases, not just concentrated in tech [4]. - The majority of capital expenditures are being made by companies with substantial cash reserves, which is a positive indicator for market stability [3]. Group 2: Earnings Growth and Market Projections - The consensus for earnings growth is projected at around 13%, which may be overly optimistic; a more realistic expectation is high single-digit growth for the next year [6]. - Corporate America is adapting to challenges such as tariffs and is leveraging AI to maintain elevated profit margins, which supports higher stock prices [6]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Inflation - There is an expectation of two more interest rate cuts this year and potentially two to three next year, which could support market growth [8][9]. - Current inflation is closer to 3%, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may need to adjust its rate path gradually [9][10]. - The direction of inflation is critical, with expectations that it will continue to decrease after a period of adjustment related to tariffs and policies [11].

Summary of Key Points from the Capex Tracker Industry Overview - The Capex Tracker indicates a trend of capital expenditure (Capex) cuts across various industries, with notable exceptions in Technology and Utilities [3][4]. Core Observations - General Industrial Capex is projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% for the period 2024-2028, which is a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous update in July [3][4]. - Positive growth in Capex is observed in the following sectors: - **Datacenters**: 26.5% CAGR, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from July [4]. - **Pulp & Paper**: Improvement noted, but specific growth figures not provided [3]. - **Conventional Power Generation**: Positive outlook with companies like Wartsila and Accelleron showing growth [3]. - **Mining**: Companies such as Epiroc and FLSmidth are expected to benefit [3]. - Conversely, significant declines are noted in: - **Vehicles/Autos**: Negative growth, with a decrease of 1.8 percentage points to 2.0% CAGR [4]. - **Pharma and Biotech**: Both sectors are experiencing negative trends, with Biotech showing a decline of 8.6% [4]. Detailed Capex Growth by Sector - **Datacenters**: - 2025 Capex growth projected at 51.7%, a significant increase of 15.2 percentage points [4]. - **Renewables and T&D**: - 2025 Capex growth at 17.5%, down by 8.0 percentage points [4]. - **Semiconductors**: - 2025 Capex growth at 15.7%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points [4]. - **Healthcare**: - 2025 Capex growth projected at 0.0%, indicating stagnation [4]. - **Consumer Sector**: - 2025 Capex growth at 0.7%, reflecting a decline of 1.1 percentage points [4]. Additional Insights - The Capex Tracker highlights a robust growth trajectory in Datacenters, Renewables, and Mining, while traditional sectors like Vehicles and Pharma are facing headwinds [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring these trends for potential investment opportunities and risks in the respective sectors [3][4]. Conclusion - The Capex Tracker serves as a critical tool for understanding industry trends and making informed investment decisions, particularly in identifying sectors poised for growth versus those facing challenges [3][4].

Summary of Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Internet/e-Commerce industry, particularly large-cap Internet companies including Google, Meta, and Amazon, highlighting the impact of capital expenditures (capex) and depreciation costs on stock sentiment and performance [1][7]. Core Points and Arguments Positive Aspects - **AI as a Growth Driver**: AI is identified as a multi-dimensional growth driver for large-cap Internet companies, enhancing core businesses, creating new revenue streams, and improving operational efficiencies. For instance, Google is experiencing increased Search monetization and Cloud adoption due to rising demand for AI compute [2][25]. - **Capex Growth**: The sector's capex is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 63% year-over-year growth in 2025 to $274 billion, followed by a 22% increase in 2026 to $333 billion. This growth is driven by investments in technical infrastructure, particularly for AI [7][10][14]. Risks - **Margin Pressure**: There is a risk of margin pressure due to a timing mismatch between scaling AI-driven revenue streams and the associated depreciation and amortization (D&A) expenses, which could impact profitability before new revenue uplifts materialize [3][61]. - **Shorter Lifespan of AI Infrastructure**: The rapid innovation cycles in AI may necessitate more frequent replacements of AI-specific assets, potentially leading to accelerated expense recognition and impacting earnings [3][65]. - **Capacity Overbuild**: The risk of overbuilding AI infrastructure could lead to supply exceeding demand, resulting in aggressive pricing strategies that may erode profitability [3][70]. Depreciation Expense Underestimation - The report suggests that the market may be underestimating the depreciation expenses for Google, Meta, and Amazon, particularly in 2026-2028, with significant divergences expected in 2027 [4][22]. Additional Important Insights - **AI Investments and Revenue Opportunities**: AI investments are expected to unlock new revenue opportunities beyond core businesses, such as subscription services for Google and advanced shopping capabilities for Amazon [50][54]. - **Operational Efficiencies**: Companies are likely to seek operational efficiencies to offset rising AI-related depreciation costs, potentially leading to lower headcount growth [57][58]. - **Revenue Growth vs. D&A Growth**: The combined revenue of Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon is projected to grow at 13% year-over-year in 2026, while combined D&A expenses are expected to increase by 33%, indicating potential margin compression [62][63]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the critical role of AI in driving growth and efficiency for large-cap Internet companies while also highlighting significant risks related to margin pressure, asset lifespan, and potential overcapacity in the market. The anticipated growth in capex and the associated depreciation expenses will be key factors influencing the financial performance of these companies in the coming years [1][7][3].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Oil-Energy sector is crucial for the global economy, providing essential energy for various industries including transportation and manufacturing [1] - Despite the rise of renewable energy, oil and gas remain vital due to their energy density and established infrastructure [1] Company Profiles - Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) is a leading independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company in the U.S., focusing on a diversified multi-basin portfolio, particularly in the Permian Basin [2] - Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) operates globally with integrated upstream and midstream operations, emphasizing its resources in the Permian Basin [3] Earnings Growth Prospects - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DVN's 2025 earnings indicates a decline of 15.98%, with a projected growth of 4.05% in 2026 [5] - OXY's 2025 earnings are expected to decline by 34.68%, with a slight growth of 1.68% anticipated in 2026 [8] Financial Metrics - Devon Energy has a return on equity (ROE) of 18.59%, higher than OXY's 13.78% and the sector's average of 15.07% [13] - Devon's debt to capital ratio is 35.44%, compared to Occidental's 39.22%, indicating a more conservative debt management strategy [12] Valuation - Devon Energy is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 3.82X, which is lower than Occidental's 5.55X, suggesting a cheaper valuation for Devon [14] Dividend Yield - Devon Energy offers a dividend yield of 2.71%, having raised its dividend nine times in the past five years, while Occidental's yield is 2.03% with four increases in the same period [16] Hedging Strategies - Devon Energy has hedged its 2025 production volumes to mitigate price fluctuations, whereas Occidental remains exposed to market prices without active commodity hedges [17] Capital Expenditure Plans - Devon plans to invest between $3.6 billion and $3.8 billion in 2025, while Occidental aims for investments between $7.1 billion and $7.3 billion [19] Price Performance - Over the past three months, Devon Energy's shares have increased by 2.1%, while Occidental Petroleum's shares have risen by 3.8% [20] Conclusion - Both Devon Energy and Occidental Petroleum hold a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with Devon having a strategic advantage due to its focus on U.S.-centric assets, which helps mitigate geopolitical risks [23][24]

Core Insights - Home Depot is focusing on balancing investments with shareholder returns and debt obligations, investing approximately $915 million in Q2 while distributing around $2.3 billion in dividends [1][8] - The company generated operating cash flow of about $8,968 million in the first half of fiscal 2025, which supported capital expenditures, dividends, and debt reduction [2][8] - Home Depot's long-term debt decreased to approximately $45,917 million, with no share repurchases planned for fiscal 2025 as the company prioritizes disciplined capital expenditures and debt reduction [3][4][8] Financial Performance - In the first half of fiscal 2025, Home Depot covered $1,723 million in capital expenditures and $4,574 million in cash dividends, with the remainder used for debt reduction of roughly $1,515 million [2][8] - Interest expenses for the second quarter were reported at $575 million, with full-year net interest expenses expected to reach $2.2 billion [3] Capital Expenditures and Shareholder Returns - Capital spending for fiscal 2025 is projected to be around 2.5% of total sales, focusing on expanding distribution networks and digital capabilities [1] - Share repurchase activity is currently on hold, with management indicating no plans to resume buybacks in fiscal 2025 [4] Market Position and Valuation - Home Depot shares have increased by 11.5% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 8% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25.70, which is higher than the industry average of 23.00 [9] Sales and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Home Depot's current financial-year sales suggests a year-over-year growth of 2.9%, while earnings per share are expected to decline by 1.4% [10]

Industry Overview - Companies in the Zacks Oil and Gas – Production Pipeline sector are crucial for meeting global energy demands, providing crude oil and natural gas essential for various industries and households [1] - Pipeline operators are vital for energy logistics, ensuring safe and efficient transportation of energy resources, which supports economic stability and the transition to sustainable energy [2] Company Comparisons - Energy Transfer (ET) and ONEOK Inc. (OKE) are significant midstream energy companies in North America, operating extensive networks for transporting and storing natural gas and crude oil [3] - Both companies connect producers in resource-rich areas to end markets, playing a key role in the energy supply chain [3] Investment Case for Energy Transfer - Energy Transfer presents a strong investment opportunity due to its diversified midstream network and stable fee-based cash flows, which are enhanced by strategic export terminal access and effective capital management [4] - The company is positioned for growth amid increasing U.S. energy output and global demand, with a strong distribution yield and consistent EBITDA growth [4] Investment Case for ONEOK - ONEOK offers a robust investment opportunity through its extensive natural gas liquids infrastructure and strategically located pipeline network [5] - The company generates stable cash flows with limited exposure to commodity price fluctuations, ensuring earnings visibility and competitive advantages in transportation and processing [5] Earnings Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a decline of 3.47% in ET's earnings per unit for 2025, followed by a growth of 5.44% in 2026, with a long-term growth projection of 13.67% [7] - ONEOK's earnings per share are projected to grow by 4.78% in 2025 and 4.69% in 2026, with a long-term growth estimate of 7.68% [9] Financial Metrics - Energy Transfer's current Return on Equity (ROE) is 11.08%, while ONEOK's ROE stands at 14.90%, which is above the industry average of 11.55% [10] - The debt-to-capital ratio for ET is 57.29%, slightly lower than OKE's 57.49%, indicating both companies utilize debt for funding [13] Capital Expenditure Plans - Energy Transfer plans to invest $6.1 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, while ONEOK targets $2.8-$3.2 billion for the same year [15] Valuation and Price Performance - Energy Transfer is trading at a forward P/E of 11.85X, which is lower than ONEOK's 12.53X, suggesting a more attractive valuation [16] - Over the past three months, ET's units have gained 0.1%, contrasting with OKE's decline of 5.9%, while the sector overall has increased by 9.1% [17] Conclusion - Energy Transfer is favored over ONEOK due to its higher earnings growth expectations, larger capital expenditures, discounted valuation, and better recent price performance [19]

Core Insights - Microsoft's aggressive AI strategy is central to its long-term growth vision, with significant capital expenditures driving this approach [1][3] - The demand for AI-powered solutions is increasing, with tools like Azure OpenAI and Microsoft 365 Copilot becoming essential for enterprises [2] - Heavy investments in data centers and AI infrastructure are expected to position Microsoft as a leader in global AI adoption [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 of fiscal 2025, Microsoft reported Azure cloud revenues up 27% year-over-year, contributing to overall cloud sales of $46.7 billion [1][9] - Capital expenditures reached $24.2 billion in Q4 and are projected to hit $30 billion in Q1 2026, primarily for AI infrastructure [3][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings is $15.35 per share, indicating a 12.54% year-over-year growth [12] Competitive Landscape - Meta is increasing its AI capital expenditures, projecting $66-$72 billion in 2025, focusing on advertising efficiency [5] - Alphabet plans to spend $85 billion in 2025 to enhance its cloud and data infrastructure, leveraging its strengths in search and digital ads [6] - Microsoft leads in enterprise-cloud integration, while Alphabet maintains a competitive edge in search and AI-driven monetization [6] Stock Performance - Microsoft's shares have appreciated 20.3% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer – Software industry and the broader technology sector [7]