Federal Reserve's Role and Policy - The Federal Reserve is perceived to have become too powerful and political, with calls for fundamental changes to its operations [3][4][6] - There is a concern that restrictive interest rates imposed by the Fed inhibit access to capital for the private sector, particularly during economic transformations favoring small and medium-sized businesses [6][7] - The Fed's actions during financial crises, such as in 2008, are questioned, with a belief that it failed to foresee the crisis and that its independence is crucial for effective crisis management [10][11][17] Interest Rates and Economic Impact - The current low-interest-rate environment is debated, with suggestions that it may have persisted too long and that the Fed's role in managing interest rates is not appropriate for a free market economy [19][21][22] - The Fed's approach to monetary policy is criticized for exacerbating wealth and income inequality, leading to societal resentment [25] Banking Sector Dynamics - Banks are under pressure to maintain high reserves rather than lending, which affects their profitability and relationships with clients [8][9] - The profitability of banks is linked to their ability to manage cash reserves effectively, which complicates their willingness to adjust to changes in Fed policy [9] Political Influence and Independence - The politicization of the Fed is a concern, as political pressures can complicate its ability to act independently during crises [10][20] - Historical examples, such as Paul Volcker's actions in the 1980s, illustrate the challenges faced by central banks when political interests conflict with necessary economic measures [14][16]

Trade Impact on Markets - President Trump's announcement of a universal 10% tariff on nearly all imported goods on April 2, 2025, led to a "global market meltdown," with S&P 500 futures dropping 3.9%, Nasdaq-100 futures down 4.7%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures falling 2.7% in after-hours trading [3] - Over the following two days, the Dow Jones index lost over 4,000 points, a 9.48% decline, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 10% and 11% respectively, erasing over $6.6 trillion in market value [4] - Specific companies like Apple saw immediate stock declines, with shares falling 6% after the tariff announcement and an additional 2.7% after threats of a 25% tariff on iPhones not manufactured in the U.S. [5] Sector-Specific Reactions - The pharmaceutical industry faced significant pressure, with potential tariffs on imports reaching up to 200%, leading to a 19.1% decline in the Y&P Generic Pharma index in the first half of 2025 [6] - The semiconductor sector was also affected, with Texas Instruments' stock down nearly 10% due to ongoing tariff concerns despite positive earnings reports [7] - Copper futures surged to a record high following a 50% tariff announcement, with domestic miner Freeport-McMoRan rallying over 2.5% [8] Federal Reserve Concerns - Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve, including the nomination of Stephen Miran and challenges to Fed independence, raised market jitters, leading to declines in stock futures [10] - Despite initial market anxiety, expectations of Fed rate cuts due to weaker economic data led to new record highs for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 shortly after [11] Market Volatility - The "Trump effect" illustrates a pattern of significant market volatility driven by trade policy announcements, capable of erasing trillions in market value quickly [12] - The market's selective response to policy announcements indicates a focus on trade-related issues over other domestic policies, such as crime crackdowns [2][12]

Under surveillance this morning, the race to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell. I'm not really sure what the Federal Reserve is looking at, because thus far we've seen very little, if any, price pressures from the tariff. We are getting the process underway.Obviously, it's going to be President Trump's decision and we're not in a rush. There's a long, long list. And like I said, there's some great candidates.So here's the latest this morning. The US Treasury Secretary Scott Benson, looking to expand the list of ...

We want to uh break down the numbers a little bit further here. Joining us now to discuss in more detail, we've got Joe Bruceuelis, RSM chief economist, Colin Martin, Schwab, Center for Financial Research, fixed income strategist, and Claudia S, New Century Advisors chief economist. Guys, I've just now opened up the uh the components to try and to go through and see where we saw some increases.I'm ass sure you guys are all doing the same in real time. Um Joe, I'm going to go to you first. I see you looking ...

We want to turn to some breaking news. Our Steve Leeman joining us now with that breaking news. Steve, over to you, Frank.Thanks very much. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson has published a broad and sweeping criticism of the Federal Reserve in an issue which is now online and we've read the whole thing uh or most of the whole thing uh in the magazine called the International Economy. Uh in the article he calls for an internal Fed review of its policy and all of the things it does and even suggests that the r ...

Market Overview - Wall Street has continued its bull run in 2025, with the S&P 500 recording 20 all-time highs year to date, including five in August alone [1] - Historically, September is the worst-performing month for U.S. equities, with an average decline of 0.7% since 1950, and a more pronounced average decline of 2% over the last 10 years [2] Investment Recommendations - It is advisable to invest in low-beta, high-yielding stocks with a favorable Zacks Rank, including Assurant Inc. (AIZ), Hasbro Inc. (HAS), The Mosaic Co. (MOS), Virtu Financial Inc. (VIRT), and Houlihan Lokey Inc. (HLI), all of which have a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [3][10] Assurant Inc. (AIZ) - Assurant is focused on both inorganic and organic growth strategies, expecting adjusted EBITDA to increase modestly in 2025, driven by improved performance in Global Housing and growth in Global Lifestyle [13] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 5.7% and an earnings growth rate of 5.8% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 7.6% over the last 30 days [15] Hasbro Inc. (HAS) - Hasbro is concentrating on high-margin segments such as Wizards, Licensing, and Digital, which are expected to support bottom-line growth [16] - The company anticipates that digital gaming and licensing partnerships will contribute about 25% of corporate revenues by 2027, with an expected revenue growth rate of 6.6% and an earnings growth rate of 21.5% for the current year [19] The Mosaic Co. (MOS) - The Mosaic is expected to benefit from higher demand for fertilizers, with strong grower economics and crop commodity prices driving global fertilizer demand [20] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 16.4% and an earnings growth rate of 60.1% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 13.2% over the last 30 days [22] Virtu Financial Inc. (VIRT) - Virtu Financial's diversified business model supports sustainable long-term growth, with ongoing cost-control initiatives improving adjusted net margins [24] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 18.9% and an earnings growth rate of 33.8% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 17.9% over the last 60 days [25] Houlihan Lokey Inc. (HLI) - Houlihan Lokey is a global investment bank specializing in mergers and acquisitions, capital solutions, and financial advisory services [26] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 13.1% and an earnings growth rate of 21.9% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings improving by 6.7% over the last 60 days [27]

So let's start with the latest. We're hearing reports that the treasury secretary could begin in his Fed chair as soon as this week. Who, in your mind do you want to see taking over from Chairman Powell.I'm not I'm not going to comment on individual candidates, obviously. But Jay Powell term as chairman ends in May. And so it makes sense that they should start the interview process.I think the main thing for the leader, the next leader of the Fed, has to be somebody who has strong grounding in economics and ...

Interest Rate Environment & Economic Outlook - The company believes higher interest rates are likely to persist for an extended period [3][6] - The company's portfolio companies are experiencing double-digit growth, indicating a sound and solid economy [5] - The company expresses confidence in the Fed's ability to navigate the rate environment [6] - The company views current market volatility and concerns about Fed independence as "noise," emphasizing the underlying strength of the economy [7][8][12] Private Markets & Retirement Plans - The company acknowledges a generational shift towards increased accessibility of private investments, including potential inclusion in 401(k) plans [2][13][14] - The company advocates for a cautious approach to expanding private investment access, emphasizing the importance of walking before running [14] - The company highlights the historical outperformance of private lending compared to liquid alternatives [16] - The company stresses the need for robust disclosure and regulation in private markets to mitigate risks such as fraud [17] - The company cautions against a potential flood of retail capital into private equity, which could create opportunities for existing firms to exit less desirable investments at the expense of retail investors [22][23] - The company suggests starting with lower volatility, safer private investment options like private credit and real assets, emphasizing a prudent and well-regulated approach [23][24]

Market Trends & Dynamics - Gold hit a record high of $3,005 hundred (300,500) amid expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns over central bank independence [1] - Silver saw gains at 40% [6] - Investors are filing money into gold while long maturity bonds enter their worst month [35] - Expectations for the Fed is more than 100 basis points towards mid-2026 [6] Financial Performance & Indicators - Stoxx 50 future is down by 02% [2] - US futures are pointing a little lower by 10% [2] - 10-year Treasury yields are up three basis points [3] - Gold is up more than 30% year-to-date [3] - U K 30-year climbing to 5 66% the highest since 1998 [109] - Nestle stock is down over 3% due to CEO change [110] Company Specific News - Nestle's CEO exited over a workplace affair after one year in the job [29] - Deutsche Bank rejoined the Stoxx 50, while Stellantis exited [34] - Deutsche Bank shares have regained their spot in the Euro Stoxx 50 [141] Geopolitical & Economic Factors - Russia signed a legal binding agreement to build the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, increasing annual Russian flows by another 10 billion cubic meters by 2027 [31] - A potential government shutdown is coming up in the US [20] - The Danish leadership tries to move further away from using any Russian gas [34] - The U K 30-year has the highest yields since 1998 at 5 66% [109]

A Few More Thoughts on Fed Independence https://t.co/V5NAmbNOMO ...