By Chibuike Oguh and Amanda Cooper NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Global shares hit a fresh record high on Monday as markets positioned for the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin its monetary policy easing cycle this week. Gold prices hit a record high as the U.S. dollar weakened. Traders widely expect the Fed to deliver a 25 basis-point cut at the end of its policy meeting on Wednesday, with the probability of such a move near 100%, according to CME's FedWatch tool. MSCI's All-Country Index rose as high as 977 ...

Core Insights - Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced a 20% surge in the past week, driven by optimism surrounding the upcoming DOJE ETF launch and technical indicators suggesting a potential significant price movement [1][6] - Historical data indicates that similar technical signals during previous bull runs led to substantial gains, with increases of 270%, 1,852%, and 1,751% noted from 2015 to 2017 [2] - Current signals in this cycle have already resulted in gains of approximately 280% and 497%, indicating that another rally may be on the horizon [3] Technical Analysis - The monthly stochastic RSI crosses are highlighted as indicators that have historically preceded major price increases for Dogecoin [1] - An MVRV ratio near 0.96 suggests that Dogecoin is currently undervalued compared to historical peaks, which range from 4 to 24 [3] - The relative strength index trendline support further reinforces the bullish technical outlook for DOGE [3] Market Context - The expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts and dovish guidance is seen as a favorable macroeconomic environment for altcoins, including Dogecoin [5] - The potential for altcoin outperformance is emphasized, contingent on supportive monetary policy [4][5] - However, there are warnings that hawkish policies or rising inflation could disrupt this favorable setup [5] ETF Launch and Strategic Moves - The Rex-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) has been delayed, with a new launch date anticipated next week, likely on Thursday [6] - CleanCore Solutions has announced its strategy to acquire 1 billion DOGE within 30 days, having already accumulated over 500 million DOGE [6] - The firm aims to secure up to 5% of Dogecoin's circulating supply, positioning itself as a significant player in the digital asset treasury space [7]

Markets have moved past debating if interest rate cuts are coming. The focus now is on how deep the Federal Reserve will go. The US central bank is widely expected to lower its benchmark rate at next week’s meeting, with futures markets like CME FedWatch assigning a near 95% probability of a quarter-point reduction. “Cuts are baked in,” Coinbase analysts wrote in its weekly market brief. “The weakening labor market and housing slump make a gradual policy shift unavoidable.” Morgan Stanley analysts echoe ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on September 17, with most economists anticipating one further cut next quarter due to labor market softness overshadowing inflation risks [1][2] - Markets have fully priced in a September cut and now expect three reductions this year, up from two just weeks ago, indicating a shift in economic outlook [2] - A significant majority of economists predict a 25 basis point cut to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first reduction of the year [2][3] Group 2 - Economists have noted a persistent slowdown in labor demand, suggesting that the Fed should ease policy to support the labor market despite current inflation levels [3] - There is potential for dissent among Fed board members regarding the size of the rate cut, with some analysts suggesting a larger cut or holding rates steady [4][5] - A majority of economists expect a 50 basis point cut by the end of 2025, with a notable increase in those predicting 75 basis points cuts by year-end [5] Group 3 - Over 60% of economists believe that surging inflation or a combination of inflation with rising unemployment is more likely in the coming year [6]

Core Insights - U.S. wholesale inflation unexpectedly declined in August, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand slipping 0.1%, marking the first monthly drop in four months [1][2] - The annual PPI rose 2.6%, significantly below the expected 3.3% and down from July's 3.1% [2] - Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, increased by 2.8% year-on-year, also below the expected 3.5% [2] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The decline in PPI was primarily driven by a 0.2% fall in services prices, the steepest drop since April, while goods prices saw a slight increase of 0.1% [3] - The weaker inflation data has heightened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with futures markets fully pricing in a quarter-point cut and speculation for a potential 50-basis-point reduction [3] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market is showing signs of strain, with government revisions indicating that the economy created 911,000 fewer jobs in the year through March than previously reported [4] - The August jobs report indicated that employment growth has nearly stalled, with job losses recorded in June for the first time in over four years [5] Market Reactions - Financial markets reacted swiftly to the inflation data, with Bitcoin surging past the $113,000 mark, reflecting traders' expectations of looser monetary policy [5][6] - Bitcoin is currently trading around $113,913, marking a 2.37% increase over 24 hours and a 2.4% gain in the past two weeks, with forecasts suggesting potential movement toward the $150,000 level if rate cuts accelerate [6][7]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference conveyed a more dovish stance, signaling potential easing of monetary policy, which led to a significant market rally, the largest since April [1] - Powell indicated that changes in risk balance may necessitate adjustments in policy, hinting at a possible rate cut in September, although he did not provide a firm commitment [1] - The immediate market reaction included a sharp decline in Treasury yields, with the two-year yield dropping 10 basis points to 3.69%, and the implied probability of a September rate cut rising from 70% to 80% [1] Group 2 - Some Wall Street strategists view Powell's remarks as a reassurance to the market, but caution that the market may be overreacting [2] - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have resurfaced, particularly due to President Trump's public pressure on Powell to cut rates and his comments regarding Fed Governor Cook [2] - The market's enthusiastic response reflects a mixed sentiment among investors, who are hopeful for liquidity easing but worried about the economic fundamentals supporting long-term market growth [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes a preference for short dollar and long gold positions as a hedge against concerns regarding Fed independence and potential tariff shocks [2] - It highlights the economic implications of potential tariff scenarios in the US, predicting an increase in the effective tariff rate (ETR) by 17 percentage points by 2027, which could lead to a cumulative boost in core PCE prices by about 1.7% over the next 2-3 years [26][28] - The report notes that the MAS is expected to reduce the slope of the SGD NEER to flat at the upcoming meeting on July 30, reflecting a softer inflation outlook and downside risks to growth [20][21] Summary by Sections Global Views - The report discusses the expectation of a return to Fed easing, which is anticipated to lower US Treasury yields and the dollar while boosting global equities and gold [2] Asia FX Views - The report provides insights into various Asian currencies, indicating low activity flows primarily driven by profit-taking and unwinding positions, particularly in USD/TWD and USD/HKD [17] - It mentions that the market for USD/KRW is expected to face unpriced risks to the upside due to impending tariffs [18] MAS Meeting Insights - The report anticipates that the MAS will adjust its monetary policy stance to a flat slope, reflecting a cautious outlook on inflation and growth [20][21] Economic Implications of Tariffs - The report outlines the expected rise in the US effective tariff rate and its potential impact on inflation, projecting core PCE inflation rates for December 2025, 2026, and 2027 [26][28] Thailand Central Bank Leadership - The report notes the appointment of Vitai as the new Governor of the Bank of Thailand, who is expected to advocate for more aggressive monetary easing to support the economy [31][33]

Core Viewpoint - First Majestic Silver Corp. has achieved a new 52-week high in stock price, driven by strong silver-equivalent production and rising metal prices [1] Group 1: Production Performance - In Q2 2025, First Majestic reported total production of 7.9 million AgEq ounces, which includes 3.7 million silver ounces and 33,865 gold ounces, marking a 48% year-over-year increase due to a 76% surge in silver production [2][10] - The increase in production was primarily driven by the San Dimas and La Encantada mines, along with contributions from the Cerro Los Gatos mine [3] - The Cerro Los Gatos mine contributed 1.5 million ounces of silver to the Q2 output [6][10] - Following the strong performance, the company raised its full-year production guidance to 30.6-32.6 million AgEq ounces from the previous estimate of 27.8-31.2 million AgEq ounces [6][10] Group 2: Strategic Developments - In January 2025, First Majestic completed the acquisition of Gatos Silver, gaining a 70% interest in the Cerro Los Gatos mine, which is expected to enhance the company's production profile [3][5] - The combined production from Cerro Los Gatos, San Dimas, and Santa Elena mines is projected to reach 30-32 million ounces of silver equivalent annually, including 15-16 million ounces of silver [4] Group 3: Market Trends - Silver prices have increased by 28% this year, while gold prices have risen by 29%, driven by safe-haven demand, geopolitical tensions, and supply deficits [7] - Current silver prices are around $38 per ounce, while gold prices are approximately $3,361 per ounce [7][8] Group 4: Stock Performance - First Majestic's stock has risen by 42.2% over the past year, outperforming the industry average growth of 15.5% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an easing bias for the PBOC but adopts a less dovish tone compared to Q1, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy easing [2][3] Core Insights - The PBOC's assessment of the Chinese economy has shifted to "showing positive momentum, with sustained recovery in sentiment," reflecting a relatively optimistic growth outlook [2] - The PBOC plans to implement a "dual cut" in Q4, anticipating a significant slowdown in year-over-year real GDP growth, which includes a 10 basis point cut in the policy rate and a 50 basis point cut in the RRR [2] - The PBOC has emphasized the importance of executing existing policies, particularly targeted easing measures, to support technology innovation and consumption [2][3] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Committee Meeting - The PBOC's Q2 MPC meeting highlighted a less dovish tone than in Q1, focusing on the flexibility of policy easing rather than committing to rate cuts [2] - The report notes a shift in language regarding the property sector from "halting the decline and stabilizing the property market" to "sustaining and consolidating the stable momentum," indicating a more optimistic stance [3] Exchange Rate Management - The PBOC has removed "the three firm commitments" and is now focused on "preventing overshooting risks," suggesting a strategy to allow the CNY to gradually appreciate against the USD [3]

Core Insights - SSR Mining Inc. has temporarily suspended operations at the Seabee mine in Canada due to power outages caused by nearby forest fires [1][8] - The Seabee mine produced 26,001 ounces of gold in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.4% [2][8] - Despite the operational halt, SSR Mining's shares rose by 3% and reached a 52-week high of $13.33, driven by high gold and silver prices [4][8] Production and Financial Outlook - SSR Mining expects the Seabee mine to produce between 70,000 to 80,000 ounces of gold for the full year of 2025 [3] - The cost of sales for the mine is projected to be between $1,230 and $1,270 per payable ounce, with an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) anticipated to be between $1,710 and $1,750 per payable ounce for 2025 [3] Market Performance - Silver prices have reached a 13-year high above $36 per ounce, while gold prices have also seen significant increases, currently around $3,320 per ounce [5] - SSR Mining's share price has surged by 147.9% over the past year, contrasting with a 2.2% decline in the industry [7] Strategic Moves - The recent acquisition of the Cripple Creek & Victor mine from Newmont Corporation positions SSR Mining as the third-largest gold producer in the United States, expected to boost annual production by 170,000 ounces of gold [6]