Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [2]. Core Insights - The inventory of lithium held by battery makers and traders has increased by 6% week-over-week (WoW) and 18% month-over-month (MoM), reaching 41,430 tons, indicating a potential accumulation strategy by major battery makers in anticipation of strong production or possible future disruptions [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) for lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) and lithium hydroxide (LiOH) showed mixed results, with Li2CO3 priced at Rmb63.7k/ton and LiOH at Rmb57.4k/ton as of July 10, 2025, compared to Rmb62.1k/ton and Rmb57.6k/ton the previous week [1]. - China's Li2CO3 production increased by 4% WoW to 18,813 tons, with contributions from various sources: brine (+2%), lepidolite (+5%), spodumene (+5%), and recycling (-1%) [1]. Summary by Sections Inventory Analysis - Total inventory of Li2CO3 reached 140,793 tons this week, reflecting a 2% increase WoW. The inventory breakdown includes downstream players (40,765 tons, +1% WoW), smelters (58,598 tons, 0% change), and battery makers/traders (41,430 tons, +6% WoW) [1]. Production Insights - The production of Li2CO3 in China was reported at 18,813 tons, marking a 4% increase WoW. The production from brine, lepidolite, and spodumene sources saw increases of 2%, 5%, and 5% respectively, while recycling output decreased by 1% WoW [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Analog Devices (ADI), Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Texas Instruments (TXN), while Onsemi (ON) is rated as "Neutral" [10][11]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing strong near-term demand, but there are signs of demand pull-ins due to tariff-related concerns, which is a key investor worry [2][3]. - Distributor inventory levels have normalized, particularly for Microchip Technology, which has seen a significant reduction in inventory [4][8]. - Pricing across the sector remains generally stable, with ON experiencing notable pricing pressure as it attempts to defend market share [2][4]. Semiconductor Purchaser Survey - The quarterly B2B survey indicates a net increase in demand of +75%, with expectations for future demand remaining strong at +73% [15][17]. - Nearly half of the respondents are exploring alternative supply sources outside the US or China, which is seen as a positive for European analog suppliers [3][18]. - The percentage of respondents indicating their analog semiconductor inventory is above target has significantly decreased, suggesting a healthier demand environment [3][15]. Inventory Financial Reporting Deep Dive - The report highlights that Analog Devices and Microchip Technology have lean inventory levels, positioning them well for an upcycle, while ON continues to face headwinds with high inventory levels [7][8]. - MCHP has successfully executed a turnaround plan, reducing inventory and production significantly [8][10]. - The overall inventory days for major companies like ADI, MCHP, and TXN are being closely monitored, with MCHP showing the largest decline in inventory [4][15]. Pricing Trends - Pricing for true analog semiconductors has remained flat, while power analog pricing has slightly declined, particularly for ON [4][10]. - The report notes that 68% of respondents have reported price increases, with expectations for further increases strengthening to 62% [17][18]. Market Outlook - The semiconductor market is expected to see a recovery, with TXN maintaining elevated inventory levels in anticipation of a sharp upcycle [8][10]. - The report suggests that the channel will likely begin rebuilding inventory, flipping the delta between sell-in and sell-through [8][10]. - Overall, the demand picture is improving, with significant increases in net demand expectations across various sectors, particularly in data centers [32][46].

初步数据显示，6月份全球石油库存再次上升。 IEA月报：5月份观察到的石油库存激增7390万桶。 ...

此外，三季度部分热销盘迎来加推，如龙华的中建鹏宸云筑、鸿荣源观城，宝安的珈誉玖玺，南山的观 山海家园、光明的金硕悦府等。 值得一提的是，与去年同期相比，2025年第三季度的商品房供应呈现明显下降态势。据深圳市2024年第 三季度计划预售商品房数据显示，该季度共有44个商品房项目入市，预计供应面积达202.46万平方米， 供应套数为18150套；其中住宅供应面积149.12万平方米，供应套数14955套。而到了2025年第三季度， 无论是商品房整体供应项目数量，还是住宅供应套数，同比降幅均已超过25%。 事实上，这种供应下滑的趋势并非始于第三季度，2025年上半年深圳商品房市场的供应就已显露出明显 的收缩迹象。 深圳市住房和建设局近日公布了深圳第三季度计划预售商品房情况。 据统计，2025年第三季度将有33个商品房项目入市，预计供应面积为135.12万平方米，供应套数为 12351套。其中，住宅占比最大，预计将有31个项目入市，面积为108万平方米，套数为10673套；商务 公寓面积为2.51万平方米，套数为129套；商业面积为6.93万平方米，套数为710套；办公面积为17.7万 平方米，套数为839套。 分 ...

Geopolitical Relations & US Foreign Policy - The report highlights growing frustration from President Trump towards Russian President Putin, stemming from Putin's actions in Ukraine [1] - The US is considering boosting military aid to Ukraine, signaling a potential shift in policy [1] - There's discussion around Trump's desire for improved relations and potential business deals with Russia, including rare mineral deals [10] - The analysis suggests Putin's continued escalation of the conflict in Ukraine is undermining Trump's efforts and making him appear weak on the world stage [20][21] Internal US Government Dynamics - A pause in weapons shipments to Ukraine was authorized by Defense Secretary Hegseth, reportedly without informing the White House, raising concerns about the chain of command [2][3] - The Pentagon's actions, specifically the pause in weapon shipments, have caused frustration within the White House [11][16] - There are concerns within the defense community regarding low US weapon stockpiles [14] Potential Policy Shifts & Actions - Senator Graham suggests Trump may now support a stalled round of sanctions against Russia [19] - The US is considering sending defensive weapons to Ukraine [2]

Core Viewpoint - Educational Development Corporation (EDC) reported a decline in net revenues for the fiscal first quarter of 2026, while also managing to reduce losses compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - Net revenues for the first quarter ended May 31, 2025, were $7.1 million, down from $10.0 million in the same quarter of the previous year [4]. - Loss before income taxes was $(1.4) million, an improvement from $(1.7) million year-over-year [4]. - The net loss for the quarter was $(1.1) million, compared to $(1.3) million in the prior year [4]. - Loss per share was $(0.13), an improvement from $(0.15) in the same quarter last year [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company implemented product discount promotions to increase cash flow, which negatively impacted gross margins [2]. - EDC is focused on reducing excess inventory to strengthen its financial position and pay down debts [2]. - An amendment to the Hilti Complex Purchase Sale Agreement was executed to allow more time for due diligence, which is expected to help retire outstanding debt and provide flexibility for future operations [2]. Brand Partner Engagement - The average number of active PaperPie Brand Partners decreased to 7,700 from 13,400 year-over-year [4]. - The company is working to provide additional opportunities for Brand Partners to succeed, aiming to normalize business operations post-transaction [2]. Company Overview - EDC specializes in publishing books and educational products for children and is the owner of several brands including Kane Miller Books and SmartLab Toys [6]. - EDC products are sold through 4,000 retail outlets and via independent brand partners through various sales channels [6].

Housing inventory in May was up by more than 30% compared with last year and in some cities, homes for sale soared past pre-pandemic levels. https://t.co/u6Vp8NJtzd ...

Investment Rating - The latest sector pecking order for investment is aluminum > lithium > copper > steel > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] Core Insights - Market expectations on demand recovery for aluminum in China remain cautious, with production data showing a flat week-over-week (WoW) performance but a 2% year-over-year (YoY) increase [1] - Total aluminum production in China for the week of June 26 to July 2, 2025, was 844kt, with aluminum billet production at 349kt, reflecting a 2% decrease WoW but an 8% increase YoY [1][2] - The year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production in China reached 22.6 million tonnes (mnt), marking a 3.2% increase YoY, while aluminum billet production was 9.1mnt, up 6.4% YoY [1] Production Summary - Total aluminum production in China was 844kt for the week, flat WoW, and up 2% YoY [1] - Aluminum billet production was 349kt, down 2% WoW, but up 8% YoY [1] - YTD aluminum production was 22.6mnt, with a 3.2% YoY increase [1] Inventory Summary - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory in China was 773kt on July 3, 2025, reflecting a 3% increase WoW but a 33% decrease YoY [2] - The inventory of aluminum ingot was 517kt, up 2% WoW and down 41% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 256kt, up 5% WoW and down 8% YoY [2] Consumption Summary - Overall aluminum apparent consumption in China was 833kt for the week, flat WoW and down 1% YoY [3] - Aluminum ingot apparent consumption was 864kt, flat WoW, and up 4% YoY, while aluminum billet apparent consumption was 318kt, down 2% WoW and down 4% YoY [3] - YTD overall aluminum apparent consumption was 23.3mnt, with a 5.7% YoY increase [3]

Key Takeaways Thermal coal prices remain unchanged: QHD 5500 was flat WoW at Rmb660/t as of June 27. CCI 5500 was flat WoW at Rmb615/t, and BSPI was also flat WoW at Rmb663/t. Mine-mouth prices for Shanxi Datong 5800 increased 0.4% WoW to Rmb492/t. Seaborne price unchanged: NEWC price was flat WoW at US$107/t as of June 27. June 30, 2025 07:49 AM GMT China Coal | Asia Pacific Weekly Coal Update: Mild Price Rebound Coking coal prices increased slightly: Liulin No. 4 mine-mouth price was up 0.9% WoW to Rmb565 ...

Consumer discretionary is the worst sector of the year. Some of the biggest losers are retail names like Deckers, Lululemon, Ross Stores. Is the sector though prime for a rebound in the second half.Joining us now is Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO. Dana, good to see you. There's good to see you too.Thank you for having me. Yeah, it's good good to have you. Especially because there's such a mix of data.We were just talking about this labor report. Overall, great. the market's up, but underneath the su ...