Market Overview - The three major indices are on a four-session winning streak, with expectations for a potential Santa Claus rally starting in the last five trading days of the year [1][2] - There is a historical concern as the last two years did not see a Santa Claus rally, and this year could break that trend [2] Trading Conditions - The S&P 500 is expected to have a trading range of about 30 to 35 points, with current volatility at approximately 13.7% [3] - A more defensive rotation is observed in the market, with interest rate-sensitive stocks, consumer staples, real estate, and financials leading the way [5] Economic Data - Mortgage applications have decreased by 5% week-over-week, with the 30-year mortgage rate hovering around 6.3% [7][12] - Jobless claims came in at 214,000, better than the expected 224,000, indicating a mixed picture in the jobs market with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [8][10] - The four-week moving average for initial claims is around 216,000 jobs, reflecting some normalization after previous outlier reports [11] Inflation and GDP - Recent economic data has exceeded expectations, contributing to equity gains, with GDP numbers coming in 1% above forecasts [13] - CPI inflation is reported at 2.7% on the headline and 2.6% on core, suggesting that inflation may not be a significant concern for the Fed [21] Commodity Market - Gold and silver have reached all-time highs, indicating a shift towards commodity trading amid geopolitical risks and central bank policies [22][23] - The gold-silver ratio suggests that gold is currently outperforming silver, which may indicate positive market sentiment and economic growth [24][25] Future Outlook - There are expectations for potential fiscal policies around housing in 2026, especially in an election year, which could influence market dynamics [17] - The market is currently pricing in two Fed rate cuts, with the first not expected until June, but there is uncertainty about how the market will react if these cuts are backed out [20]

for what this all means for stocks. Let's bring in Jeremy Seagull, Wisdom Tree, chief economist and Wharton School professor of finance. Jeremy, great to see you.Happy holidays. >> Thank you. >> Uh labor market still doesn't give you too many things to worry about and claims.Although yesterday people were looking at conference board uh job differential and what that might mean for I don't know the prospect of a jobless expansion, let's say. >> Yeah. Yeah.that the the sweet spot for jobless claims uh you kno ...

ShareDisclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpab ...

LOW-VOLUME TODAY. IT IS CHRISTMAS, SO POTENTIALLY INDIVIDUALS NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO THEIR SCREEN. JOINING US NOW TO DISCUSS MORE, STEPHANIE ROTH AND MICHAEL BALL.THANK YOU FOR JOINING US IN STUDIO. MERRY CHRISTMAS TO BOTH OF YOU. LET'S GET YOUR REACTION FROM THE CLAIMS NUMBER.STEPHANIE: THE DATA LOOKS SOLID. IT IS TELLING US THE LABOR MARKET IS FAIRLY WELL CONTAINED. LAYOFFS ARE MINIMAL.THERE WAS A BOUNCE BACK IN CONTINUING CLAIMS. IT WAS VOLATILITY AROUND THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. CONTINUING CLAIMS IS ST ...

The year is ending where it arguably began for investors: serving up surprises. Nothing comparable to the market crash in the immediate aftermath of April's "Liberation Day," but still surprises. Gold prices hit another record on Wednesday and are up a sparkly 70% this year. Gold has seen 51 record highs this year. Copper prices have also hit another record. The metal is up 30% this year. Sure is a lot of copper in those AI data centers! And how could one not mention the S&P 500 (^GSPC), which is at a ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy experienced significant changes in 2025, including the imposition of tariffs, an increase in the unemployment rate, and improved stock market performance from AI companies [1] - As of November 2025, the unemployment rate reached 4.6%, marking the highest level since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic in September 2021 [4] Consumer Sentiment - A survey by Allianz revealed that 48% of Americans reported increased financial stress compared to the beginning of 2025 [1][6] - The Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan indicated a decline in consumer sentiment, with the headline index at 52.9 in December 2025, down over 28% from the previous year [3] Financial Stress Factors - The primary reasons for financial stress among Americans include rising everyday expenses (54%), low income (46%), high debt (35%), and job insecurity (33%) [3][6] - Despite a slight easing in inflation to 2.7% in November 2025 from 3% in September, it remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [5][6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on global economic conditions, particularly the impact of central bank policies and trade dynamics on growth and inflation across various regions, including the U.S., Europe, and emerging markets [3][4][17]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Easing**: There is an expectation of additional easing in global policy rates, with a projected reduction of approximately 40 basis points by the end of the year due to growth and inflation dynamics [3][4]. 2. **U.S. Economic Conditions**: The U.S. is experiencing a mid-year downshift in domestic demand, which, combined with trade war repercussions, is likely to push growth below potential in the second half of 2025 [4][12]. 3. **Inflation Trends**: Global inflation remains sticky, with core inflation in the U.S. rising at an annualized rate of 2.4% over the three months through June 2025, while inflation outside the U.S. is expected to moderate [5][22]. 4. **Central Bank Policies**: The Federal Reserve is anticipated to move cautiously, with potential easing in response to tariff-related inflation spikes and softening labor demand [11][12]. 5. **Western Europe Economic Outlook**: The Euro area and UK are seeing service price inflation, which remains elevated, prompting the ECB to adopt a wait-and-see approach while considering further easing due to expected growth dips below 1% in 2H25 [17][18]. 6. **Emerging Markets (EM) Easing**: EM central banks are expected to continue easing, with recent cuts from Bank Indonesia and anticipated cuts from other countries like Chile and Turkey, driven by global growth concerns and stable currencies [23][24]. Additional Important Insights 1. **China's Economic Imbalances**: China's GDP growth for Q2 2025 was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, but there are concerns about structural imbalances, particularly with weak retail sales and fixed investment growth [22]. 2. **Political Dynamics in Japan**: Upcoming elections could lead to increased political uncertainty, potentially impacting fiscal policy, including discussions around consumption tax cuts [25]. 3. **Trade War Implications**: Recent announcements of increased tariffs on Mexico and Canada could heighten risks for the USMCA review, affecting trade dynamics and economic forecasts [26]. 4. **Manufacturing Output Trends**: Global factory output surged by 6.5% annualized rate in early 2025, but a slowdown is expected as the effects of front-loading tariff hikes diminish [18][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economic policies, inflation trends, and regional growth forecasts.

Core Insights - Inflation is expected to persist, with economists suggesting that pressure may increase by 2026, necessitating investor composure as inflation rates hover around 3% and the Federal Reserve implements interest rate reductions [1][2]. Financial Strategies - An urgent assessment of cash flow and debt management is essential, as inflation will reduce actual investment returns [3]. - Individuals should consider placing funds into high-yield accounts that offer returns exceeding inflation rates before transitioning to short-term Treasury bills or certificates of deposit (CDs) for interest rate protection [4]. - The current low interest rates present an opportunity for businesses to establish financial stability rather than accumulating excessive debt [5][6]. - Investors are advised to review their portfolios, as inflation growth will diminish the purchasing power of idle funds, and diversifying into equities, inflation-protected securities, and real-asset funds can help mitigate this risk [6]. Timing and Strategy - Financial decisions are directly influenced by inflation and interest rate changes, which occur independently, making it crucial to start financial planning early to maintain future flexibility [7]. - A robust financial strategy must extend beyond short-term forecasts, focusing on long-term resilience to navigate various market conditions [8].

President Trump has vowed to give qualifying Americans a $2,000 tariff dividend. There are no details or a plan, but  White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Trump is “committed” and told reporters on Nov. 12, “We are currently exploring all legal options to get that done.” While many Americans could use an extra boost, experts worry that the $2,000 dividend could raise prices, including grocery costs. Here’s how. How the Dividend Can Affect the Price of Groceries Trump’s proposal i ...

Deposit account rates are on the decline. The good news: You can lock in a competitive return on a certificate of deposit (CD) today and preserve your earning power. In fact, the best CDs still pay rates above 4%. Read on for a snapshot of CD rates today and where to find the best offers. Where are the best CD rates today? CDs today typically offer rates significantly higher than traditional savings accounts. Currently, the best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) generally offer rates around 4% to 4.5% AP ...