Economic Growth and Productivity - The recent GDP print indicates a strong performance, marking the highest growth in two years, although it predates the government shutdown [2][4] - Productivity is currently driving economic growth, which is beneficial as it allows for wage increases and higher profit margins for companies, but it also leads to a reduced need for hiring [3][4] - The Fed's concerns about inflation may be misplaced, as inflation has moderated and is not expected to rise significantly [5][6] Business Investment and AI Impact - Business investment is anticipated to be strong next year, with AI playing a significant role in this growth [7][10] - Spending on data centers and the electric grid is expected to be a crucial part of business investment [8] - The momentum from AI productivity gains is expected to build on the solid productivity growth observed over the past two years [10][16] Labor Market Dynamics - There is a real concern regarding a softening labor market, driven by demographic changes and immigration trends, which may hinder firms' ability to hire [17][18] - A skills mismatch and slower workforce growth could lead to lower innovation and growth in the near term, although productivity from AI investments may offset these challenges [18] Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Actions - The economic outlook for next year is generally positive, with expectations of a rate cut potentially occurring in 2026, although the timing remains uncertain [19][20] - The Fed is expected to be cautious in its approach to rate cuts, influenced by data and political pressures, with a focus on maintaining institutional integrity [21][22]

Uruguay’s central bank surprised investors with a half-point reduction in borrowing costs that left the benchmark interest rate at 7.5% after months of below-target inflation. https://t.co/gvlWLZFp2b ...

Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Marley Kaden here in Chicago. Joining us now in studio is Marta Norton, the chief investment strategist at Empower.Marta, always great to have you with us. Now, let's talk about the data that we've gotten of late. This it seems to have been digested.Okay. But we got our our CPI, our delayed CPI, our our delayed jobs report beat expectations, 4.6% unemployment. We got GDP today.Economy grew more than expected. But I continue to hear this echoed sentiment that people are n ...

Let's get the bond report. Rick Santelli has more on how the markets are reacting to all of these crossurrens. Rick, what can you tell us.>> Well, you know, I like the way the charts tell a picture. If you look at twos and tens when the number was released, a couple things should jump out at you. The twos definitely seem to be more aggressive in holding the upside.I don't think that's for any big reasons to explain the Fed or uh acknowledge percentages and probabilities. I think it's purely the next chart w ...

Economic Overview - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index has declined for the fifth consecutive month, indicating a negative trend in consumer sentiment [2] - The index consists of two components: the present situation and the expectations index, with the latter showing a significant shift as consumers now express concerns about future economic conditions [2][3] Consumer Confidence Insights - For the first time this year, the expectations index has flipped, with consumers feeling that their current situation is good but anticipating a decline in the future [3] - Consumer confidence varies significantly by income level; those earning below $125,000 annually reported a decrease in confidence, while those above this threshold experienced an increase [4] Economic Disparities - There are two distinct economic experiences: high-income consumers are driving spending, while lower-income consumers are feeling the strain [4][5] - The current economic landscape is characterized by rising food prices despite decreasing gas prices, leading to consumer disappointment regarding inflation expectations [6] Small Business Challenges - Small businesses, which often operate on personal credit, are facing significant challenges, contrasting with larger businesses that are performing well [8] - The burden of tariffs is highlighted as a regressive tax impacting lower-income Americans and small businesses, suggesting a need for potential policy adjustments [7][9] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, particularly in the service sector, which is unusual for a traditionally manufacturing-driven economy [11] - Despite the weakening labor market, productivity in the service sector is contributing positively to economic indicators, indicating a shift in economic structure [11]

If the president had gotten his way, inflation would surely be rocketing again, the economy would be overheating and the Fed would have to raise short-term rates again. ...

"I want my new Fed Chairman to lower Interest Rates if the Market is doing well, not destroy the Market for no reason whatsoever," Trump wrote. "I want to have a Market the likes of which we haven't had in many decades, a Market that goes up on good news, and down on bad news, the way it should be, and the way it was. Inflation will take care of itself and, if it doesn't, we can always raise Rates at the appropriate time— But the appropriate time is not to kill Rallies, which could lift our Nation by 10, 15 ...

Economic Growth - GDP exceeded 4% [1] - Inflation is near 2% [1] Trade Policy Impact - Tariffs did not cause a Great Depression [1] - Shelves are not empty, and the economy did not crater [1]

At the same time, Fed governor Adriana Kugler stepped down during the summer, leading the president to appoint White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran to serve out the remaining five months in her term. Miran did not step down from his position at the White House, only taking a leave of absence. It's a move that many Fed watchers worried would compromise Fed independence — and one that Miran himself had previously warned about prior to his position in the administration.The Fed’s holdin ...

The stock market can expect a resurgence in real estate stocks and funds after the December 18 Consumer Price Index fell to 2.7%, well below consensus forecasts of 3.0% or higher.That scenario is already supporting a rally in stocks and lifting interest-rate expectations. Investors are locking in positions based on muted inflation as potential evidence that the Federal Reserve can keep easing into early 2026, sending yields lower and boosting rate-sensitive sectors like real estate.Although economists warne ...