September 16, 2025 06:23 AM GMT M Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts Next 12-Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Skewed to the Downside: We expect the Fed to begin cutting this week, while the BoE and BoJ remain on hold. We expect the FOMC to deliver four consecutive 25bp cuts through January, bringing the target range to 3.375% - the upper bound of most Fed estimates of neutral. We anticipate further cuts in April and July 2026 as labor market deterioration continues, to reach an unchanged termin ...

South Korea’s early exports tumbled in September, with higher US tariffs slamming the brakes on shipments in a troubling sign for the trade-dependent economy https://t.co/pEp5FhnNA3 ...

Group 1: Company Strategy - Starbucks is shifting its food strategy to appeal to health-conscious consumers by expanding protein and gluten-free options while emphasizing artisanal, premium offerings [1][2] - CEO Brian Niccol announced plans to "reimagine all of our baked items" and create "much more artisanal" foods to complement Starbucks' coffee [2] - The company will introduce a protein cold foam containing 15–18 grams of protein later this year, reflecting growing consumer interest in high-protein drinks [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends - The gluten-free market is expected to more than double from $7.4 billion in 2024 to $15.4 billion by 2032, indicating a significant opportunity for Starbucks [3] - There is a broader shift toward health-conscious diets among millennials and Gen Z, extending beyond just celiac or gluten-intolerant consumers [4] Group 3: Coffee Price Dynamics - U.S. retail coffee prices rose nearly 21% in August compared to the same month the previous year, marking the largest annual jump since October 1997 [4] - Monthly prices surged 4%, the highest increase in 14 years, attributed to unstable weather conditions affecting crop harvests in major coffee-producing countries [5] - Brazil experienced a severe drought impacting harvests, while Vietnam saw a 20% drop in coffee production in 2024 due to adverse weather [6]

Group 1: Side Hustle Trends - A significant 51% of Americans engaged in side hustles in 2024, indicating a strong trend towards supplementary income sources [1] - The side hustle landscape is evolving, with traditional lucrative gigs potentially losing profitability due to economic changes and AI advancements [2] Group 2: Rideshare and Food Delivery Industry - The rideshare and food delivery sectors are facing challenges due to rising living costs, leading to decreased consumer spending on services like Uber and DoorDash [3] - The average cost of a new vehicle has reached $49,740, increasing the financial burden on drivers who rely on their vehicles for income [4] - The saturation of the rideshare and food delivery market has intensified competition, resulting in lower demand and earnings for drivers, who currently make between $17 to $24 per hour [5] Group 3: Freelance Opportunities - Freelance social media managers earn between $25 to $44 per hour, while web developers make between $35 to $55, but entry-level positions are struggling to keep pace with rising costs [6] - The average pay for entry-level social media work is $26 per hour, which is impacted by tariffs on imported goods, leading to higher living expenses [7] - Food prices are projected to rise by 3.3% by year-end, exacerbated by tariffs on imports, further diminishing the purchasing power of side hustlers [7]

Core Viewpoint - Novartis has proactively increased its stockpiles of pharmaceuticals in the United States to mitigate potential impacts from President Donald Trump's tariffs on its products [1] Company Summary - The chief executive of Novartis indicated that the company is well prepared for any adverse effects that may arise from the tariffs imposed by the U.S. government [1]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx Corp. anticipates a $1 billion impact from trade volatility this year, primarily due to tariffs and the loss of a key exemption for low-value goods, significantly affecting shipments from China to the US [1][2]. Financial Performance - FedEx reinstated its financial guidance, projecting revenue growth of 4% to 6% for the current fiscal year, exceeding Wall Street estimates [3]. - The company expects adjusted earnings for the 2026 fiscal year to be between $17.20 and $19 per share, slightly below average analyst estimates [3]. Trade Environment - The company faces challenges from the end of a longstanding trade policy that allowed packages worth less than $800 to enter the US duty-free, complicating global trade dynamics [6]. - The ongoing trade pressures have led to a cautious outlook, with analysts predicting lackluster demand during the holiday season due to changes in de minimis regulations [8]. Market Reaction - Despite trade pressures, the reinstated guidance provided some relief to investors, resulting in a less than 1% increase in FedEx shares, although the stock has declined over 19% this year compared to a 13% advance in the S&P 500 Index [5]. Strategic Initiatives - FedEx is implementing internal initiatives to cut costs, including merging its air and ground networks, with an expectation of achieving $1 billion in permanent cost reductions [9]. - The company repurchased $500 million worth of shares in the first quarter and plans to continue buybacks throughout the fiscal year [8].

Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers cautioned that the United States may be heading into a period of stagflation led by President Donald Trump’s trade and tariff policies, citing the lingering effects of tariffs and rising risks for both unemployment and inflation. We’re Likely On The ‘Foothills of Stagflation’ On Thursday, in a post on X, Summers highlighted a snippet from his recent online conver ...

Core Viewpoint - FedEx reported a significantly better-than-expected quarterly performance, leading to a stock price increase of over 2% despite previous struggles and negative market sentiment [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a nearly 20% decline in stock value for the year prior to the earnings report [2]. - FedEx's revenue beat expectations, driven by a 4% year-over-year increase in its core FedEx Express business, while earnings per share reached $3.83, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $3.61, indicating a 6% growth [4][5]. - FedEx provided its first full-year forecast for the 2026 fiscal year, projecting 4% to 6% revenue growth, significantly higher than the analyst expectation of 1.1% [5]. Management Insights - Management expressed a more positive outlook on the operating environment, describing it as "dynamic," acknowledging challenges from a weak industrial economy and tariffs [6]. - The CEO highlighted the importance of customer service and the company's ability to adapt to changes in tariff regulations, particularly the removal of the dimminimous tariff exemption [8][9]. Market Position and Strategy - FedEx is gaining market share, particularly at the expense of UPS, by focusing on improved service rather than just price cuts [10][19]. - The company is implementing cost management initiatives, such as the "Network 2.0" project aimed at enhancing efficiency in its North American operations without compromising customer satisfaction [12][14]. - FedEx's "triolricolor strategy" focuses on increasing delivery speeds and profitability in its air freight business by optimizing capacity based on demand [16][17]. Future Outlook - The company is cautiously optimistic about its ability to navigate the current economic landscape while maintaining customer satisfaction and market share [19]. - FedEx's stock is considered undervalued, trading at less than 13 times the midpoint of its full-year earnings forecast, compared to the market average of 25 times earnings [20].

US-China Relations & Geopolitics - China anticipated potential challenges related to technology, export controls, and trade with the US, demonstrating preparedness for trade disputes and related issues [1] - The discussion suggests a shift in Beijing's perspective regarding the strategic value of TikTok over time [2][3] - Beijing's willingness to consider a deal regarding TikTok implies a perceived decrease in its value as a bargaining chip [3] TikTok Deal Implications - Initial opposition from Beijing to any forced sale of TikTok has evolved, indicating a change in strategy [2] - The evolving technology landscape over the past five years has potentially influenced Beijing's stance on TikTok [2]

Key Points MercadoLibre and Netflix have significantly beaten the market so far this year. Both should benefit from their respective leadership positions in rapidly growing markets. 10 stocks we like better than MercadoLibre › Even amid the volatility caused by President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies, broader equities are doing pretty well this year, and some companies have performed even better. That's the case with MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX): The former is u ...